Are the Flames BETTER than they were in 2021-22?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Quality of wingers is going to have an impact on Kadri’s game and production. He will not be surrounded by the same level of talent he had in Colorado. Will be interesting to see how the chemistry develops in the lineup as Sutter develops his combinations.

I guess we will see. Colorado has a dynamite top line with two star wingers in Rantanaan and Landeskog, but Kadri played mostly with Burskovsky and Nichushkin, who—prior to last season—were 0.5 pts/GP forwards. I don't think that what Kadri is stepping into is such a big step down from what he had in Colorado.

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[GioforPM]

Not me, i want my best 4 d in the top 4.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

...I think our top 6 is better because it's more deep, having another true #2 center...

FYP.

Backlund just never gets the credit he deserves around here. I would consider Kadri an excellent second-line centre—one of the NHL's best—who could and has effectively covered as a top-line centre. MacKinnon missed a tonne of time last season, and Kadri slipped in and Colorado didn't miss a beat. But missing in a lot of this analysis is just how good Backlund is. He is a solid #2 centre who will be playing on the third line behind a combination #1 + #1B centre-pair in Lindholm and Kadri. That should be absolutely devastating. There is no weak link in there, which is actually more than can be said for the SC champions heading into this season: behind MacKinnon, they are left to ice Compher and Newhook—which is fine, but perhaps not great.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Itse

Using single season numbers is kinda cherrypicking though.

Kadri's last season is extremely anomalous, he's mostly been a consistent 50 point guy, and that’s the realistic expectation going forward.

Sure, Tkachuk (the direct comparison if Huberdeau replaces Gaudreau) also had a massive bump in points, but at least he had been flirting with ppg production previously, and big breakout years are a lot more common at 24 than 31.

Okay, but then by this same measure Huberdeau is well ahead of all of them. That off-sets things enough to shift the balance closer to even if not in the current roster's favour.

But rather than focus on individual production, I prefer to see the changes made for how they have dramatically reshaped the entire roster. Last year the Lindholm · Gaudreau · Tkachuk combination was the best line in the League, but the Flames forwards behind them were not nearly as good. Now, by shifting some of that offensive production down the lineup by adding a 1B/2 centre, which slots the existing #2 centre on the third line, then suddenly the new balance throughout the lineup should theoretically make the team as a whole much, MUCH harder to play against. Yes, the top line where both Gaudreau and Tkachuk played will not be as good, but lines #2 and #3 should be substantially better. This will make a huge difference overall.

[dino7c]

just a reminder these polls are not anonymous

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Okay, but then by this same measure Huberdeau is well ahead of all of them. That off-sets things enough to shift the balance closer to even if not in the current roster's favour.

But rather than focus on individual production, I prefer to see the changes made for how they have dramatically reshaped the entire roster. Last year the Lindholm · Gaudreau · Tkachuk combination was the best line in the League, but the Flames forwards behind them were not nearly as good. Now, by shifting some of that offensive production down the lineup by adding a 1B/2 centre, which slots the existing #2 centre on the third line, then suddenly the new balance throughout the lineup should theoretically make the team as a whole much, MUCH harder to play against. Yes, the top line where both Gaudreau and Tkachuk played will not be as good, but lines #2 and #3 should be substantially better. This will make a huge difference overall.

I agree with you on the premise. Our forward depth wasn't great last season, and since our first line couldn't keep up their domination in the playoffs (and Tkachuk IMO being the weak link), we didn't look like contenders.

However, the only difference in our forward depth is that a top 6 winger was turned into a top 6 center.

Now, centers are more important than wingers, and I do agree that having 3 quality centers COULD make a big difference in depth just because wingers more commonly get elevated by centers rather than the other way around.

But I don't think it's likely to make much of a difference.

(EDIT: Changed "offensive depth" into "forward depth", because obviously there's more to depth than points.)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Itse

Out of thanks, but well argued.

For the record, I'm quite alright with the swap, in a vacuum. I just think it's really short term thinking.

I don't hate it, but Treliving is once again betting a lot on a pretty small chance of success. Understandable given the situation, but I don't love it either.

It is a 32 team league, with a cap, meaning that, other than one or two teams that can manage to separate themselves because of a homerun player or two (see; Makar), the difference between teams is very marginal. At any given time, there are maybe 10 teams that are competitive, 10 to 12 that are playoff/bubble teams, and 10 to 12 that are in some stage of rebuilding.

If a team only went all in when they had a really good chance of winning, they would never go all in.

Lifting your team out of the middle group into into the top group is difficult. And when you get the chance to do it, you do it. Hopefully things can come together for you - which involves some luck and some career years, it isn't an exact science - and the goal is to be in a position to win, to have a chance. If you build a core that makes the final 4 a couple times, even that is success.

Some fans seem to forget that it is a business - an entertainment business. Tickets cost a lot of money and the fans that are paying to go to games want to see a good team and to be entertained. Keyboard GMs that want to rebuild all the time just don't get it.

[activeStick]

Love this new group on defense. Keeping pairs the same, going with pairs with known chemistry with Hanifin-Andersson, Kylington-Tanev and then cresting the new pair of Zadorov-Weegar means Sutter can keep them all rested throughout the season at 14-16 minutes of 5 on 5 with the remaining minutes given to Weegar/Kylington/Hanifin on the PP and Tanev/Andersson/Zadorov on the PK.

[timbit]

Andersson had by far the most PP points amongst Flames D and was 20th for D in the entire league.
He’ll be on the PP.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by timbit

Andersson had by far the most PP points amongst Flames D and was 20th for D in the entire league.
He’ll be on the PP.

You're right. Did Hanifin play at all on the PK? I think Gudbranson did. I wonder who they play there next season?

[timbit]

Originally Posted by activeStick

You're right. Did Hanifin play at all on the PK? I think Gudbranson did. I wonder who they play there next season?

My bet is Weegar on PK.

[Nelson]

Yes. Better at C + better on D = better. Also, once Flames sign Kessel, they’ll be bolstered on the wing. I love the lineup, and I’m stoked for the season.

[Angelino]

Flames are better glad to see the defense got a big boost as well in all this shuffling.

[JohnnyB]

The Flames will be better in part just because of the experience they gained in the playoffs and some young players, especially on D, being more mature than a year ago. Talent out is possibly more than talent in, but not by a huge amount. Experience gained and time under Sutter for a lot of the team should help more than the loss of talent.

No stars on contract years is probably the biggest factor likely to reduce points on the board this year, but more motivation to win in the playoffs is nice alternative.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by timbit

Andersson had by far the most PP points amongst Flames D and was 20th for D in the entire league.
He’ll be on the PP.

This got me looking at points for defensemen, and what I discovered is almost unbelievable. Here are the Flames' D, in league ranking for EVPs last season:

11) Weegar - 39 (tied with Fox)
18) Hanifin - 34 (tied with McAvoy and Ekblad)
33) Andersson - 30
38) Kylington - 28
40) Tanev - 28
68) Zadorov - 22

Our 6 D were all in the top 75 (including ties) for even strength points last year, and 5 were in the top 40. With 32 teams, top 64 is theoretically top pairing (though of course, it doesn't actually work that way).

Not only is that amazing, but it's also kind of hilarious, because the general - almost universal - view is that the Flames' D is solid defensively, but not that great offensively.

[gvitaly]

On paper the Flames look a lot more balanced, and deeper that makes them a better team as a result. A lot of it will come down to chemistry though, and I'm sure that some of our players will regress from the career years last year. It can also take time for a player to get used to his new team.

A big factor would be that teams would treat the Flames seriously right from the start of the year. That didn't quite happen at the beginning of last year, which helped the team go on a heater, and build chemistry right off the bat. I think this will lead to a tougher year, and less points in the standings, but more success in the playoffs.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I guess we will see. Colorado has a dynamite top line with two star wingers in Rantanaan and Landeskog, but Kadri played mostly with Burskovsky and Nichushkin, who—prior to last season—were 0.5 pts/GP forwards. I don't think that what Kadri is stepping into is such a big step down from what he had in Colorado.

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Kadri played 200 ES minutes with Burakovsky/Nichuskin and 78 ES minutes with Landeskog/Rantanen.

the Avs signed Nichushkin to a 8x 6.125 contract and let Kadri walk for nothing

Burakovsky signed a 5.5 x 5 deal

Prior to last season Kadri was coming off a 4 year run at .64 ppg The Flames signed him as a 1.23 ppg player.


the Avs signed Nichushkin to a 8x 6.125 contract and let Kadri walk for nothing

Burakovsky signed a 5.5 x 5 deal


Huberdeau and Mangipane are the only Flames that would be in the 6 best wingers on a combined 2021-22 Avs team combined with the 22-23 Flames.

If Kadri does not play on a line with Huberdeau and Mangipane he will be playing with lesser linemates.

[Enoch Root]

For clarity on my post above, the Flames had 4 guys in the top 40 last year (EVP), which is still amazing. And now they have removed their #6 and replaced him with a guy that was tied for 10th overall.

You can argue that there isn't enough ice-time for all of them to repeat that, which is fair and accurate - the difference in total EV ice-time between Weegar and Gudbranson was 415 minutes. But even if you factor that out, they are still easily #1 in the NHL.

The only other team that had 4 last year was FLA, but of course, now they only have 3

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Kadri played 200 ES minutes with Burakovsky/Nichuskin and 78 ES minutes with Landeskog/Rantanen.

the Avs signed Nichushkin to a 8x 6.125 contract and let Kadri walk for nothing

Burakovsky signed a 5.5 x 5 deal

Prior to last season Kadri was coming off a 4 year run at .64 ppg The Flames signed him as a 1.23 ppg player.


the Avs signed Nichushkin to a 8x 6.125 contract and let Kadri walk for nothing

Burakovsky signed a 5.5 x 5 deal


Huberdeau and Mangipane are the only Flames that would be in the 6 best wingers on a combined 2021-22 Avs team combined with the 22-23 Flames.

If Kadri does not play on a line with Huberdeau and Mangipane he will be playing with lesser linemates.

Yes, 4 of the top 6 wingers would be AVS.

But 3 of the top 4 Cs would be Flames.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Itse

Out of thanks, but well argued.



For the record, I'm quite alright with the swap, in a vacuum. I just think it's really short term thinking.



I don't hate it, but Treliving is once again betting a lot on a pretty small chance of success. Understandable given the situation, but I don't love it either.

How is this any different in principle from a scorched-earth rebuild through the draft? That too is "betting a lot on a pretty small chance of success."

Take a look at Ottawa, for example: They started rebuilding four years ago. They have drafted in the top three, drafted a tonne and have made some very nice, calculated decisions toward future success. They have yet to make the playoffs in that time, and they do not appear to be close to breaking through and becoming a top team. If it is going to work in Ottawa, it is still years away from happening, and even then, I am really not sure this is a team that will be able to win. They realistically could never end up being as good as Calgary is now. Was it foolish of Ottawa to bet their entire future on a team that has such a small chance of winning?