Question of the year folks..what is wrong with Gaudreau

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Mightyfire89

I imagine what he’s getting at is that he’s been saying for years that controlled entries are superior to dump-ins.

Weird. That has been common knowledge for a long time.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Lots of good points on how different the system is this year, punctuated wonderfully by C-S's charts I thought. Makes for a pretty strong argument it's more a team/system issue than a Gaudreau issue.

Perhaps a glass half full take - he's the ultimate team guy willing to sacrifice personal numbers to play with the team and the system they've decided to employ.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Lots of good points on how different the system is this year, punctuated wonderfully by C-S's charts I thought. Makes for a pretty strong argument it's more a team/system issue than a Gaudreau issue.

Perhaps a glass half full take - he's the ultimate team guy willing to sacrifice personal numbers to play with the team and the system they've decided to employ.

The "It's 100% on the players, too many coaches already. Scotty Bowman couldn't coach this team" faction won't like this revelation.

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Dump in v controlled entry data for those interested:

2019


2020



Gaudreau unsurprisingly goes for controlled entry 80% of the time, both this year and last year. Everyone else is dumping the puck in way more often compared to last year. Monahan goes from 55% controlled to 30%; Lindholm goes from 55% to 40%. Success rate and/or opportunity is also dramatically down. Gaudreau goes from one of the best in the league at 26 entries/60min to 21. But, he's still top 2 on our team. The rest of the team is way down.

My conclusions:
It's definitely a team issue. Hockey analytics will tell you that controlled entries are worth expected shots/goals more than dump-ins. We are reverting to a caveman style. Gaudreau is the exception, yet people are quick to hate on him! I believe this to be due to optics. An average player will dump the puck 5 times and the team retrieves the puck say 50% of the time. Gaudreau will control the puck into the zone 5 times, but may give up 2 turnovers. Gaudreau creates more offensive entries, but most viewers only remember his 2 turnovers and swear at their TV and curse Gaudreau for being a turnover-prone puck hog.

Gaudreau is slumping, but so is the rest of the team. Still, Gaudreau is our more skilled player and should be valued as such.


Data taken from Corey Sznajder's tableau page.

Thanks for the analysis. Very interesting. I agree that turning the puck over 2 times out of 5 at the blue line vs a 2.5 time recovery from a dump in simple terms makes sense.

The difference for me is the quality of the chance that goes the other way when you turn the puck over at the blue line versus when you get the puck deep and set-up a fore check. My perception is that it is far more costly to turn the puck over at the blue line.

Not suggesting that you should always dump the puck in. Only suggesting that if the choice is a high risk play at the blue line vs dumping the puck in then maybe dumping the puck in is the right play.

Curious if you know of a way to validate that through stats.

[rohara66]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

There's a bunch of things going on, but the biggest I've noticed is the pace at which we transition the puck.

We are back to playing a Gulutzan style d to d pass and 5 man unit up the ice, which typically results in a chip in play at the blue line.

Our d rarely, if ever, immediately transition the puck north south. It is always east west, then forward. This allows the opposing team to get structured in the neutral zone, which leads to low controlled entries, low odd man opportunities, and more perimeter shooting (if we actually win the puck back).

Flames need to play on their front foot. Dictate the pace by transitioning the puck immediately north south, and allow your skilled forwards (JG, etc.) to attack the blue line with speed, instead of having to deal with a 5 man unit that is ready to disrupt the play.

THIS!!!!! x 1,000,000. I posted something similar a few pages back.



We get the puck and regroup (go east to west), rather then get the puck and head north/south.



And its not just our defensemen. Watch how often our forwards pass it back to the defencemen in the neutral zone (or even worse when we're breaking out).

[powderjunkie]

Is there any way to control for line change dump-ins vs. possession-attempt dump-ins? Perhaps frequency of defensive zone times without possession greater than 30* seconds?

Where is Sam Bennett on the 2020 table? Looks like somebody is stacked with Lindholm?

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

There's a bunch of things going on, but the biggest I've noticed is the pace at which we transition the puck.

We are back to playing a Gulutzan style d to d pass and 5 man unit up the ice, which typically results in a chip in play at the blue line.

Our d rarely, if ever, immediately transition the puck north south. It is always east west, then forward. This allows the opposing team to get structured in the neutral zone, which leads to low controlled entries, low odd man opportunities, and more perimeter shooting (if we actually win the puck back).

Flames need to play on their front foot. Dictate the pace by transitioning the puck immediately north south, and allow your skilled forwards (JG, etc.) to attack the blue line with speed, instead of having to deal with a 5 man unit that is ready to disrupt the play.

It’s also a boring style. I’ve been watching the Raptors a lot this year and they specialize in pushing the pace to take advantage of defences that aren’t set. It’s more obvious in basketball but still relevant for hockey. And it’s really entertaining.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Say what for years? The charts compare only two seasons (2019 v. 2020), and show that this year's team is playing demonstrably differently from last year's.

Not necessarily the statistics. But more liked the point that poster made about Gaudreau consistency entering the zone with controlled entries.

For me, I definitely notice that Flames fans completely take for granted the ability that Gaudreau has to create dangerous chances for him and his linemates be they’re just so caught up in the turnovers. It’s the NHL, nobody bats a thousand here, there’s going to be turnovers when you’re tasked to be the one guy to do it all.

Monahan as the center should theoretically be the one to do it, but I’ve noticed that since he and and Gaudreau have been united that he’ll automatically defer to Gaudreau or be the one to dump it in.


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[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by IliketoPuck

There's a bunch of things going on, but the biggest I've noticed is the pace at which we transition the puck.

We are back to playing a Gulutzan style d to d pass and 5 man unit up the ice, which typically results in a chip in play at the blue line.

Our d rarely, if ever, immediately transition the puck north south. It is always east west, then forward. This allows the opposing team to get structured in the neutral zone, which leads to low controlled entries, low odd man opportunities, and more perimeter shooting (if we actually win the puck back).

Flames need to play on their front foot. Dictate the pace by transitioning the puck immediately north south, and allow your skilled forwards (JG, etc.) to attack the blue line with speed, instead of having to deal with a 5 man unit that is ready to disrupt the play.

Against Vancouver it sure looked like we were attacking a lot more off the rush, and on more than one occasion it was a defenceman leading the way rather than waiting for a forward to break out. It actually makes a lot of sense that the safe, controlled "Gulutzan" style hockey that seemed to creep back this year has not produced the same results with this lineup compared to last year.

Combine that with an aggressive forecheck when we do dump and chase, and a good cycle game from the Backlund and Ryan lines, and all of a sudden you're putting the other team back on their heels rather than playing uphill the entire game.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Thanks, Philly06Cup!

I didn’t know where one would go about getting that data, but it sure matches the eye test. There have been a few of us pointing out some of the problems we have been noticing in the transition game and zone entries.

ComixZone, agreed. It must be so frustrating as a skilled player to be asked not to use your skill, and getting worse results.

[timbit]

What a strategic and tactical turnaround in the Vancouver game, considering the coaching staff had only 48 hours to install such massive changes . The players were finally liberated.

Bravo!

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by timbit

What a strategic and tactical turnaround in the Vancouver game, considering the coaching staff had only 48 hours to install such massive changes . The players were finally liberated.

Bravo!

It’s almost as if they were being coached that way all along and Ward got mad that they weren’t doing it.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Coach Ward: “Guys, I’ve been telling you to win, but you’ve been losing. Have you thought about just going ahead and winning?”

Select contingent of CP users : “Wow, Ward and every coach before him is a genius. The players suck when they lose”.

[Mike F]

I think that, around the All-Star break last year, team started to figure out how to nullify the Flames offensive system. That was perfected by Colorado in the postseason. , not to mention that they had. The best Top Line in hockey. Neither Flames coach has made the necessary adjustments to get the flame scoring again.

I think that bringing in a new coach, With the new style of play is the only thing that's going to fix the flames. . Unfortunately, it looks like Tre Is content to wait for next season? To make that change

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Mike F

I think that, around the All-Star break last year, team started to figure out how to nullify the Flames offensive system. That was perfected by Colorado in the postseason. , not to mention that they had. The best Top Line in hockey. Neither Flames coach has made the necessary adjustments to get the flame scoring again.

I think that bringing in a new coach, With the new style of play is the only thing that's going to fix the flames. . Unfortunately, it looks like Tre Is content to wait for next season? To make that change

I am not convinced that the wait is because Treliving is content. The fact that Ward has never been relieved of the "interim" tag suggests that the GM is looking for a HC, but I think it is more likely the candidate(s) he wants to hire are not currently available.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Coach Ward: “Guys, I’ve been telling you to win, but you’ve been losing. Have you thought about just going ahead and winning?”

Select contingent of CP users : “Wow, Ward and every coach before him is a genius. The players suck when they lose”.

Yeah, that's exactly what I said.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am not convinced that the wait is because Treliving is content. The fact that Ward has never been relieved of the "interim" tag suggests that the GM is looking for a HC, but I think it is more likely the candidate(s) he wants to hire are not currently available.

Agreed. Or perhaps available but not interested at this time.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by timbit

What a strategic and tactical turnaround in the Vancouver game, considering the coaching staff had only 48 hours to install such massive changes . The players were finally liberated.

Bravo!

Utterly amazing at those that brush aside the roles and importance of coaching. More shocking are those that seemingly can't get there point across without being a condescending jerk about it.

Bravo! Brava!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Agreed. Or perhaps available but not interested at this time.

Yeah, something like that. The two most high-profile coaching targets at present are Peter Laviolette and Girard Gallant, and I believe both of them have indicated that they will not be actively pursuing a new position in mid-season. Even if Treliving has targeted one or both of these guys I suspect they have informed him that neither will start talking to anyone at this point.

[redpaint]

This thread is part of the problem. We have such high expectations for a guy who has been playing against players 2x his size his whole life. Give it a rest, let the guy figure it out. If he wants out of calgary I'm pointing the finger at all the grown ass men/women acting like their happiness hinges on what he does/doesn't do. Help him by having his back not throwing him under the bus. Some of the discussions in here are straight up gossip girl vitriol, if you like that show so much maybe put that on instead of the game.

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