Ontario Election thread

[CaptainCrunch]

Meanwhile Straight.com shows an abacus poll with the NDP with a 4 point lead

https://www.straight.com/news/108447...atives-ontario


Meanwhile last night I fired an arrow into the sky and where it came down I do not know.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by GGG

However you may have difficulty being electable with a raise tax on the middle class platform.

This is the honest conversation we refuse to have with ourselves politically. How much do you value government services when it's you who has to pay full freight for them?

When its framed as being paid for by some large faceless corporations, oil & gas royalties, or wealthy people then people tend to disassociate the value received from the cost paid for them.

That's why the hypothetical $150k/year people talked about in earlier posts trend conservative. They pay in raw dollars more in taxes annually than the median earner makes in gross income, they receive less perceived direct benefits from said services, and yet while they are better off then most, they aren't exactly on easy street where their day to day standard of living bears no consequence to economic volatility.

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

This is the honest conversation we refuse to have with ourselves politically. How much do you value government services when it's you who has to pay full freight for them?

When its framed as being paid for by some large faceless corporations, oil & gas royalties, or wealthy people then people tend to disassociate the value received from the cost paid for them.

That's why the hypothetical $150k/year people talked about in earlier posts trend conservative. They pay in raw dollars more in taxes annually than the median earner makes in gross income, they receive less perceived direct benefits from said services, and yet while they are better off then most, they aren't exactly on easy street where their day to day standard of living bears no consequence to economic volatility.

That's what's so laughable about these arguments others are making about paying more taxes.

They don't want to pay more taxes. They don't say "I need to pay more taxes." They say "We need to pay more taxes". They want everyone that earns money above an arbitrary line set conveniently above their own income level to pay more taxes. They value those services a lot, when some one else is footing the bill. They don't want to think about the actual costs. They don't want to think about the actual impact it has.

Only a fool wants to pay more taxes. Only a fool wants to give more and more money away, degrade their own living situation, and get nothing extra in return. And when I'm saying 'fool', I'm being polite. I should just say 'idiot'.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

That's what's so laughable about these arguments others are making about paying more taxes.

They don't want to pay more taxes. They don't say "I need to pay more taxes." They say "We need to pay more taxes". They want everyone that earns money above an arbitrary line set conveniently above their own income level to pay more taxes. They value those services a lot, when some one else is footing the bill. They don't want to think about the actual costs. They don't want to think about the actual impact it has.

That’s an interesting theory. I don’t think it’s based on anything other than your opinion but it’s an interesting theory none the less. The best part was when you tried to argue that people saying “we (themselves and others) need to pay more taxes” somehow should be interpreted as them saying they want everyone else who makes more than they do to pay higher taxes.

Only a fool wants to pay more taxes. Only a fool wants to give more and more money away, degrade their own living situation, and get nothing extra in return. And when I'm saying 'fool', I'm being polite. I should just say 'idiot'.

How foolish of those people who understand the importance of investing in infrastructure and social programs. I guess you’re of the opinion that we should lower our taxes to the levels of states like Michigan so we can see a boom the likes of which Detroit is currently enjoying. I mean forget Washington and California with their “progressive” taxation systems that lead to doom and despair, we need to look to Kentucky and other red states that have been cutting taxes for decades so that we can hope to one day enjoy the levels of prosperity being achieved in their regions.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

That’s an interesting theory. I don’t think it’s based on anything other than your opinion but it’s an interesting theory none the less. The best part was when you tried to argue that people saying “we (themselves and others) need to pay more taxes” somehow should be interpreted as them saying they want everyone else who makes more than they do to pay higher taxes.



How foolish of those people who understand the importance of investing in infrastructure and social programs. I guess you’re of the opinion that we should lower our taxes to the levels of states like Michigan so we can see a boom the likes of which Detroit is currently enjoying. I mean forget Washington and California with their “progressive” taxation systems that lead to doom and despair, we need to look to Kentucky and other red states that have been cutting taxes for decades so that we can hope to one day enjoy the levels of prosperity being achieved in their regions.

Its funny how no one whos for low taxes and corporate wellfare always discuss talking about the permanently #### south living in poverty with their low taxes. what a paradise!

[Cheese]

So what does the Government spend our taxes on:


$72.2 billion on critical programs.
Seniors, Old Age Security etc etc
Child tax benefit
Universal child care
Employment Insurance
Transfers to Provinical and Territorial Governments for health care, first nations, veterans, public hgealth etc.
Security and Infrastructure. National defence, RCMP etc
Interest Payments
Grants, contributions/subsidies



vs the USA

[CaptainCrunch]

More numbers stuff


https://globalnews.ca/news/4251259/o...th-prediction/

he Ontario NDP and Progressive Conservatives appear locked in a tie when it comes to where they stand in public opinion ahead of the Ontario election.


But when it comes to how those voter intentions break down on a riding level, Ontarians appear likely to wake up to a Premier Doug Ford come Friday morning.

What that boils down to, Kay said, is that while Andrea Horwath‘s NDP will likely win by large margins in regions such as Northern Ontario, Hamilton and Windsor, the party lacks the broad base of the Progressive Conservatives in vote-rich regions of the rest of the province.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

Its funny how no one whos for low taxes and corporate wellfare always discuss talking about the permanently #### south living in poverty with their low taxes. what a paradise!

That would distract people from the other distractions by making them think. Can’t have that.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

Only a fool wants to pay more taxes. Only a fool wants to give more and more money away, degrade their own living situation, and get nothing extra in return. And when I'm saying 'fool', I'm being polite. I should just say 'idiot'.

It's fools who think they can have European quality public services and infrastructure with American taxation levels. I'd vote for any party that ran on a platform of introducing a PST, while cutting/freezing government spending to eventually re-balance the provincial budget.

With ageing populations and stagnant economies in the Western world, a reckoning is coming. If we don't get our fiscal house in order, the whole public system could collapse. Pensions, health care - these things are not guaranteed into perpetuity. How keen are you on seeing hospital wait times get longer and longer? On seeing university costs rise higher and higher? Infrastructure and public spaces relentlessly deteriorating? On CPP benefits slashed to keep the basic government operations running?

Maybe you think you have enough money and wherewithal to prosper without public health care, education, and pensions. Maybe you like the idea of living in a gated community, paying out of pocket for health care, sending your kids to private schools. Me, I like our egalitarian public system. The security and mutual trust that it provides. You couldn't pay me enough to live in the U.S., with its low taxes, winner-take-all approach to society.

[PepsiFree]

If there’s one thing I want, it’s to save a little bit of money in taxes in exchange for medical bills that could bankrupt me.

Freedom! Free man on the land!

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

If there’s one thing I want, it’s to save a little bit of money in taxes in exchange for medical bills that could bankrupt me.

Freedom! Free man on the land!

Albertans understand what it's like to live in fear of being laid off. Now imagine if being laid off not only meant a loss of your income, but the loss of all of your family's health care coverage. So now you're not only out of a job, but you need to come up with a thousand bucks a month to pay for health insurance, and go to bed every night praying one of your kids doesn't get appendicitis.

[CaptainCrunch]

CBC's poll tracker has a 80+ percentage chance of a PC majority


https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/


Seat Projection



PC 71
NDP 52
Libs 1
Greens 0

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

If there’s one thing I want, it’s to save a little bit of money in taxes in exchange for medical bills that could bankrupt me.

Freedom! Free man on the land!

A thoughtful discussion can be had about what services are valued the most by the population and how much it costs society to provide them without positing that it's either the current state of affairs or privatized health care.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

CBC's poll tracker has a 80+ percentage chance of a PC majority

I like Eric Grenier and have a lot of faith in poll aggregation... but not so much in seat projections

[CaptainCrunch]

And fair enough, Its funny how far apart all of these polls are.


I'm kind of shocked that we haven't had some kind of run of a seats prediction here

[Parallex]

Nothin' says Ford Conservative Values like gettin' sued by your brothers widow...

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...-millions.html

[Fuzz]

“It is heartbreaking that Renata has chosen to bring forward these false and baseless allegations against our family, right in the middle of the provincial election campaign. As a family, our one goal is to ensure Rob’s children are cared for and their financial futures are secure. Renata has serious struggles with addiction, and our hope is that she will accept help for the sake of herself and my grandchildren,” Diane said in her statement.

Jeezus, what a douchy way to respond publicly.

[GGG]

What bugs me about that graphic is that it doesnt explain what the 80% means.

It probably means that if there is a polling error in the NDPs favour that is within the normal provincial election polling Error on a province wide basis the NDP will form a majority government.

The NDP has the same probability of winning as Trump did 2 weeks out.

If you flip a coin twice and it lands heads both times the NDP forms government.

[Enoch Root]

An 80% chance of a PC majority does not mean a 20% chance of an NDP majority.

Nor is 2 heads equal to 20%.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Nothin' says Ford Conservative Values like gettin' sued by your brothers widow...

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/...-millions.html

Questions are now being asked about this law firm and this suit considering that Patrick Brown's sister is a senior partner with Aird and Berlis. The timing of her promotion to partner on Jan 31st and the timing of this lawsuit doesn't look good.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1003766665035776000


I'm not on Ford's side, nor Horwath and certainly no Wynne. There's not a leadership Candidate in that election that shouldn't be shot into the sun. But the timing on this and the involvement of Browns' sister "Things that make you go hmmm"


Its funny, the Ontario Conservative Party eats itself during the election. You can bet if Horwath loses that's she'll be in a pot filled with carrots just like Wynne as those parties like to eat their leaders after the election.