16/17 Goalie Situation

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Was there pressure January 2015 when his 4 game win streak pretty much saved our playoff hopes on the heels of Ramo/Hiller dropping three straight? I'd say so.

Was there pressure when he needed to keep his job?

[Roof-Daddy]

I still think the Flames go hard after Reimer in free agency.

If what Erick Estrada stated was true (that the Flames don't plan on bringing back Ortio) I hope they are re-assessing their position. The kid has talent, and is showing it in spades right now. He should be re-signed.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they give Ramo a try out if no other team gives him a contract out right.

[driveway]

Ortio now sitting with the following numbers:

Whole season: All situations .899; 5v5: .912, 4v5: .868

Since 2/23: All situations: .915; 5v5: .929; 4v5: .892

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by DJones

Is it crazy to think that a Ramo/Ortio tandem may be good enough for next year?

Yes

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Yes

Just don't see how overpaying for Anderson or Reimer would be a good idea.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by DJones

Just don't see how overpaying for Anderson or Reimer would be a good idea.

Just don't see how Ramo even with his marked improvement from one half of the season to the next, is anywhere near good for making a capable tandem with Ortio next season. Please Flames, let Ramo walk at the end of the year.

And we don't know how the goalie market will shape up. Saying a team will overpay or underpay right now is just blind guessing, the market needs to shake out first. There's always a playoff team that scraps everything and resets. Throwing any preconceptions of what's going to happen from draft day to UFA day into the disarray.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Was there pressure when he needed to keep his job?

Plenty of pressure, and then multiply that by twelve in rust.

[Street Pharmacist]

Because the goalie is a team’s last line of defense, it’s no surprise that strong performance in net is incredibly important to winning a hockey game. During the regular season, save percentage (the generally accepted shorthand measure of goaltending effectiveness) explains a higher proportion of team performance than any other fundamental factor in hockey.#In the playoffs, the emphasis on goaltending only intensifies; save percentage is easily the most important determinant of a team’s goals-per-game differential in the postseason. A hot goalie really is the key to a successful playoff run.

But herein lies a great paradox: Despite goaltending's outsize impact on the outcomes of hockey games, it’s extremely hard to say exactly which goalies are truly good or bad at their jobs.

The poor correlation of save percentage from one year to the next also indicates that goalies are extremely volatile commodities. For instance, if a goaltender is above average in a given season, there’s only a 59.2 percent chance he’ll be above average again the following year. And if he’s below average now, don’t worry: There’s a 47.2 percent probability that he’ll be above average next season.

This does not mean that there is no difference in talent among goalies. It just means there’s a great deal of uncertainty around how any one goalie compares to another, and that the distribution of talent among NHL-caliber goaltenders is significantly more narrow than would be expected from looking at season-level save percentages alone. As a consequence, the “replacement-level” save percentage for goalies (to borrow a term from baseball’s sabermetrics, referring to the production a team could expect from a minimum-salary player freely available on the waiver wire) is remarkably close to league average.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...better-goalie/

This is a good summary of my thoughts. Any goalie can get hot. A goalie over the long term is more likely to put up career numbers than a goalie like Hammond is to put up the numbers he did last year. Every year, a few goalies go on horrible streaks and a few go on hot streaks.

Unfortunately, goalies have an outsized impact on your season and you have to commit to one. You can't play without one. So you answer this question: How do you pick the one that will give you the best chance when there's very little correlation from one season to the next?

First off, you minimize your goalie's negative effect by minimizing shots against. Flames are middle of the pack here only because they block so many. That's a bit misleading though because if you're blocking the farther away shots it likely means that those left are from closer (my thoughts, no proof). They allow the third most shots attempts, so it seems to me the flames then are at a bigger risk of the downside from bad goaltending.

The second thing is to pick for a goalie with a good amount of work behind him. A goalie is more likely to perform to his career numbers than his previous season or last 20 games. I know some will argue that Hiller is an example where this is a terrible idea, but a) he's clearly "post apex" and regressed, and b) there's far more examples where it works.

Having said that, I'm fine with Ortio as a back up. You need to start somewhere finding a goalie that will be consistently good. I guess I just don't see it happening from a goalie who hasn't put up impressive numbers yet with any consistency. If the flames want to win next year, Ortio as anything more than back up would be a very large gamble.

[driveway]

Reimer has an extremely good 5v5 save percentage. It's like .940 or something like that over the season. That's Lundkvist/Price territory; and over a substantial number of games (30+). I'd be extremely okay with the Flames offering Reimer a 2-year contract on July 1st.

I think going into next season with Reimer on a 2-year deal, Ortio on a 1-year qualifying offer puts us in a really good position going forwards. Either of those players could easily emerge as a bonafide #1, and it give Gillies a clear shot to start in Stockton and develop, and it shouldn't cost the flames too much money. Ortio's qualifying offer would be, what... 850k? Reimer ... 3 million? 3.5 for 2 years?

That would be our goaltending sorted for possibly less than 4 million.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Just don't see how Ramo even with his marked improvement from one half of the season to the next, is anywhere near good for making a capable tandem with Ortio next season. Please Flames, let Ramo walk at the end of the year.

And we don't know how the goalie market will shape up. Saying a team will overpay or underpay right now is just blind guessing, the market needs to shake out first. There's always a playoff team that scraps everything and resets. Throwing any preconceptions of what's going to happen from draft day to UFA day into the disarray.

I can't think of an example where someone has gotten a legit #1 without overpaying(or a 1st round). Maybe Eddie Lack?

If we get one for cheap sweet, I won't complain. If we have to pay 5 million or draft picks. Meh

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by DJones

Just don't see how overpaying for Anderson or Reimer would be a good idea.

And I just don't see how re-signing Ramo is a good idea. Like I've said before, that ship has sailed. The Flames need better. Not that I'm saying Reimer or Anderson are who they should be pursuing.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Inferno

And I just don't see how re-signing Ramo is a good idea. Like I've said before, that ship has sailed. The Flames need better. Not that I'm saying Reimer or Anderson are who they should be pursuing.

Ranta? Hoping that the Rangers struck gold two years a row? Same thing with Enroth. Just because Talbot and Jones turned out well doesn't mean I want to roll the dice.

Fleury, Varlamov, Bishop. Why would those teams give them up for a non-overpayment?

I like Ortio as the backup. None of the other names in this thread for the next #1 are too exciting.

Anderson would probably be my first choice

[DazzlinDino]

Seems the players are playing for Ortio more so than they were for Hiller. Ortio looking like he is building confidence. I really hope the Flames consider signing him because he seems to have the tools push, or challenge whoever we have as a starter. If anything this season has shown what can happen when we don't have enough Netminder's in the system. Gillies, Ramo and Hiller have all been hurt, so it makes no sense for the Flames to gamble on who we might, or might not acquire next season.

[Jaydee]

Originally Posted by DJones

Ranta? Hoping that the Rangers struck gold two years a row? Same thing with Enroth. Just because Talbot and Jones turned out well doesn't mean I want to roll the dice.

Fleury, Varlamov, Bishop. Why would those teams give them up for a non-overpayment?

I like Ortio as the backup. None of the other names in this thread for the next #1 are too exciting.

Anderson would probably be my first choice

He has one year left, Vasilevski is playing good, and they need room to sign Stamkos

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by DJones

Just because Talbot and Jones turned out well doesn't mean I want to roll the dice.

The Flames would be rolling the dice anyway bringing back Ramo coming off a long layoff. We don't know if we get the Ramo that got sent to Stockton or the Ramo before he got hurt which still wasn't good enough. I'd much rather go into next season optimistic with a new goalie.

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by DJones

Just don't see how overpaying for Anderson or Reimer would be a good idea.

If the concern is saving money over winning, they could just sign me to 3 year deal at league minimum!

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Martin Jones. 34GP coming into this season. I guess the SHarks clearly had no desire to win this season...........

We are talking about putting inexperienced goaltenders behind our team, not the Sharks, two completely different beasts. The Sharks are a veteran laden squad that had a down year and needed a shake-up between the pipes. The Flames are a young rebuilding team and have a legitimate shot at finishing in the bottom 3 in the league.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by DJones

I can't think of an example where someone has gotten a legit #1 without overpaying(or a 1st round). Maybe Eddie Lack?

If we get one for cheap sweet, I won't complain. If we have to pay 5 million or draft picks. Meh

You don't want to pay $5M for a starting goalie? Why? I give that to a legit #1 goalie every time, actually pretty cheap.

[PeteMoss]

Regarding Ortio - I can discount the beginning of the year struggles. He didn't play a game for basically a month and was really only terrible in the Montreal game.

The AHL play this year is less forgivable but I can understand a guy being disappointed at being sent down when he was on a one way contract and the guys who stayed up over him were expensive and terrible (Ramo's better play came after Ortio went down).

I'd rather pay Ortio $800k-$1M and have him battle with one of these mid-tier question mark goalies like Reimer (who will likely be paid in $4M-$5M range), than spend $4M on two of these mid-tier guys. At least then you're saving some cap money.

[Ruttiger]

Originally Posted by gunnner

Thomas Greiss has been terrific this year. I wouldnt be shocked if the Islanders turn to him in the playoffs.

Was thinking this as well. Now especially with Halak out for 6 weeks, if Greiss is able to maintain his current level of play it's possible one of them could be made available. Didn't realize they were both 30 - thought Greiss was a bit younger.