Alberta Provincial By-Elections - Fall 2014 Editions

[Senator Clay Davis]

This should be the end for Danielle as leader. She's become very stale repeating the same message and it seems painfully obvious they only have one strategy, to drive up voter anger and try and take advantage of that. It simply is not a winning strategy. A few weeks ago the Herald had a somewhat ominous poll that showed Danielle has almost the same percentage that held a positive approval of her as did Prentice, but her disapproval was close to the same and much higher than Prentice.

The Wildrose still has an opporunity next election (I think), but it starts with new leadership and a different message. More telling me about you, less telling me how the PCs are bad. But coming from Danielle would ring hollow at this point. If Clark won Elbow there'd be no question she's out, what an utter embarrassment that would have been.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

All around a very good night for Prentice - that is stating the obvious.

The Alberta Party, while they had a good showing in Elbow, is in big trouble. They can't possibly put up that good of a fight against an incumbent Cabinet minister with the dilution of volunteers and resources over a general election. This was their chance and they went all in and it didn't break their way.

The Wildrose had a bad night but I think it was largely due to not quite knowing how to message against Prentice. The "Send the PCs a Message" argument is pretty standard by-election boilerplate and wasn't particularly effective against an amorphous and politically shrewd character like Prentice. He made some pretty smart pre-election moves that he could argue showed that they have already gotten the message. They'll need to go back to the drawing board and devise a message that works. One thing is that the WR is very strong in the Legislature and we'll see if they can regain their footing against Prentice in the Leg.

The Libs had a horrendous night. They were weak in all four ridings and didn't show any signs of improvement anywhere. They are on absolute life support as a party. They'll be down to 3 seats after Hehr and Kang jump federally and there is no guarantee they'll hold onto either of those seats. They'd fall to below the NDP in the Leg.

The NDP had an above average night. They had a good showing in Edmonton in one of the least winnable seats in the city for them. It helps establish a message that they are the progressive option in Edmonton and may allow them to gain an extra two or three seats. Calgary is still pretty barren obviously. However, with the AP and ALP looking pretty weak there could be some room for growth with Notley as leader.

I'll admit I'm confused by the statement that the Alberta Party, who came within 800 votes of winning Elbow, are in "big trouble" but the NDP, who continue to barely register in Calgary, are not.

I'll agree that the Liberals are in deep trouble, but that is kind of the message to to take away from the Elbow results too. The liberals and AP together would have won that riding, by a tidy margin, but the Grits can't exactly claim that the AP, who got more than twice as many votes as they did, are "splitting the vote."

Elections are partly about expectations. Given that, the winners to me tonight are the Tories, who did much better than expected, and the Alberta Party, who despite barely registering in province-wide polling came much closer than I would have thought in a riding where the fundamentals don't favour them.

The losers: the Wild Rose, who under performed expectations again, and the Liberals, who appear to be fading into irrelevance.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Dion

I wasn't a fan of the attack ads and the constant reference to Redford Tories and all the corruption. That was a huge mistake on her part and as the by elections showed, it didn't work. I'm quite sure she'll take responsibility for that (unlike what we have seen with the PC's) and move the party in a different direction.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

One last polling tidbit of minor interest: the Tories have again overperformed their poll numbers, which makes me wonder if their recent troubles are producing a "shy Tory effect,"
but not actually losing them that many votes. It may be a reason to be skeptical of any polls showing them losing to the WRA in the next election.

[Ducay]

WRA will start to win when they start acting like a mature, responsible party. Right now they'll literally say anything and support anything to get a vote. Smith is more interested in slandering opponents than making the party something more legitimate than simply a "second choice".

They would do so much better if they set some firm policies that were realistic and picked up a leader that people could trust (Someone like Kenny or another MP). For now, they're a walking sideshow with Roberta Anders as a leader. Plus, they remind me of American politics, smear everything and pray you come out on top.

I'd love to see the 3 left parties unite in this province as Hehr has suggested, then we could see some better representation in the Legislature, through 3 competitive alternatives.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I'll admit I'm confused by the statement that the Alberta Party, who came within 800 votes of winning Elbow, are in "big trouble" but the NDP, who continue to barely register in Calgary, are not.

I'll agree that the Liberals are in deep trouble, but that is kind of the message to to take away from the Elbow results too. The liberals and AP together would have won that riding, by a tidy margin, but the Grits can't exactly claim that the AP, who got more than twice as many votes as they did, are "splitting the vote."

Elections are partly about expectations. Given that, the winners to me tonight are the Tories, who did much better than expected, and the Alberta Party, who despite barely registering in province-wide polling came much closer than I would have thought in a riding where the fundamentals don't favour them.

The losers: the Wild Rose, who under performed expectations again, and the Liberals, who appear to be fading into irrelevance.

I agree that the Liberals are in big trouble, but there are a few reasons why the Alberta Party had a terrible night as well. They threw everything they had at Elbow and lost. The leader ran a hard campaign and had been campaigning for the past two years, in his second attempt, and it wasn't enough. The other Alberta Party candidates were complete non-factors. There is no traction there aside from them pulling out all the stops and the thing is in a general election it's a different animal.

The loss for them is worse because while none of the opposition won seats, they're all going to be invited to the televised debate in the next campaign. They're all likely to be listed on every opinion poll and of course donors will still donate. Those are big deals for a fledgling party.

I do think something has to happen for centrists. The issue is whether that happens through some cooperation and putting aside the extremely minor differences, or it happens under Prentice.

[Flabbibulin]

Just listened to Danielle Smith's comments. Never ceases to amaze me how losers on election night always try and claim some sort of moral victory. Regardless of this being only 4 byelections, the WR not being able to do any damage to the PCs at their weakest is a massive failure. She suggested that the results show Wildrose to be on the upswing- With a new leader in the PC party and plenty of time to improve their image, I would say the Wildrose are just as likely to decrease in popularity next time around as they are to increase.

[burn_this_city]

WR needs to articulate why they are an alternative to the PCs. They haven't campaigned on anything of real substance, only tired soundbites. I had a feeling the Tories would sweep after Prentice took over. He made a number of intelligent moves that immediately reaped reward. It really makes you wonder how tone deaf the party was under Redford.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I'll admit I'm confused by the statement that the Alberta Party, who came within 800 votes of winning Elbow, are in "big trouble" but the NDP, who continue to barely register in Calgary, are not.

I'll agree that the Liberals are in deep trouble, but that is kind of the message to to take away from the Elbow results too. The liberals and AP together would have won that riding, by a tidy margin, but the Grits can't exactly claim that the AP, who got more than twice as many votes as they did, are "splitting the vote."

Here are a few reasons why I believe the Alberta Party is in trouble:
1) They were giving serious thought to folding after the 2012 campaign but decided against it.

2) Even during the by-elections the AP was polling at or under 5% in both Calgary and Edmonton (including Elbow).First past the post makes it really difficult to get elected when your vote is as dispersed as the Alberta Party's seems to be. They won't be able to run as strong of a campaign in 2016 when their volunteers/financial resources are spread over almost 90 ridings instead of a few. The NDP has a clear beachhead in Edmonton where they are polling almost 30% and are competing for first place in the polls. First past the post rewards a party that has this type of regional strength and this by-election helped reinforce the message that they are the non-Conservative option in Edmonton to defeat the PCs.

3) By-elections are often aberrations. People park their votes with a party or person that they like but won't usually vote for during an election. It is a way of sending a message to a governing party without throwing them out entirely.

4) In 2016, Elbow will have an MLA who is an incumbent Cabinet Minister rather than a somewhat controversial evangelical unelected yet still appointed Cabinet Minister which will make it much, much more difficult Clark to run dethrone.

5) If the WR regains their footing, a "throw the bums out" message will be much more resonant province wide than the post partisan message of the Alberta Party.

6) If the WR regains their footing, the PCs will likely make another move to push the middle of the road potential Alberta Party voters to vote PC to keep the WR hordes out of government.

7) Clark will likely not be represented in a party leaders debate and will be fighting from the outside to get his voice heard.

8) As seen in this election, the Alberta Party and Alberta Liberal Party partisans seem to hate each other more than they hate anyone else. Makes it unlikely that they'll be able to form a true detente. The only situation I can see happening is both parties decide not be able to run full slates out of weakness and this could lead to some non-competition between them. I actually believe that, in an ideological sense, Alberta Party voters are closer to the PCs than they are to the Liberals and a good campaign by Prentice could make them vote PC before before they'd ever vote Liberal.

In a nutshell, the Alberta Party desperately needed last night's by-election. All of their eggs were in that basket and it didn't work out. It was an impressive showing in Elbow but it doesn't look likely to be something that can be repeated.

[saillias]

Does anyone buy Danielle Smith as a potential premier?

Is it just me or does she come across as diffident and lacking confidence when she speaks to the media. She's only comfortable saying the PCs are no good.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

WR needs to articulate why they are an alternative to the PCs. They haven't campaigned on anything of real substance, only tired soundbites. I had a feeling the Tories would sweep after Prentice took over. He made a number of intelligent moves that immediately reaped reward. It really makes you wonder how tone deaf the party was under Redford.

The answer to that is: unbelievably tone deaf.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by ben voyonsdonc

Here are a few reasons why I believe the Alberta Party is in trouble:
1) They were giving serious thought to folding after the 2012 campaign but decided against it.

2) Even during the by-elections the AP was polling at or under 5% in both Calgary and Edmonton (including Elbow).First past the post makes it really difficult to get elected when your vote is as dispersed as the Alberta Party's seems to be. They won't be able to run as strong of a campaign in 2016 when their volunteers/financial resources are spread over almost 90 ridings instead of a few. The NDP has a clear beachhead in Edmonton where they are polling almost 30% and are competing for first place in the polls. First past the post rewards a party that has this type of regional strength and this by-election helped reinforce the message that they are the non-Conservative option in Edmonton to defeat the PCs.

3) By-elections are often aberrations. People park their votes with a party or person that they like but won't usually vote for during an election. It is a way of sending a message to a governing party without throwing them out entirely.

4) In 2016, Elbow will have an MLA who is an incumbent Cabinet Minister rather than a somewhat controversial evangelical unelected yet still appointed Cabinet Minister which will make it much, much more difficult Clark to run dethrone.

5) If the WR regains their footing, a "throw the bums out" message will be much more resonant province wide than the post partisan message of the Alberta Party.

6) If the WR regains their footing, the PCs will likely make another move to push the middle of the road potential Alberta Party voters to vote PC to keep the WR hordes out of government.

7) Clark will likely not be represented in a party leaders debate and will be fighting from the outside to get his voice heard.

8) As seen in this election, the Alberta Party and Alberta Liberal Party partisans seem to hate each other more than they hate anyone else. Makes it unlikely that they'll be able to form a true detente. The only situation I can see happening is both parties decide not be able to run full slates out of weakness and this could lead to some non-competition between them. I actually believe that, in an ideological sense, Alberta Party voters are closer to the PCs than they are to the Liberals and a good campaign by Prentice could make them vote PC before before they'd ever vote Liberal.

In a nutshell, the Alberta Party desperately needed last night's by-election. All of their eggs were in that basket and it didn't work out. It was an impressive showing in Elbow but it doesn't look likely to be something that can be repeated.

I suspect where we differ is on expectations: I never thought they had a realistic shot in Elbow, so given that I would say their showing was very strong. In that context, the real question is whether they can raise enough money to run that kind of campaign province-wide. If they can they will be a force in the next election, not in Elbow, but Currie, Buffalo, and other urban-sense ridings. Let's not forget that Calgarians, even urban ones, won't vote NDP--that is abundantly clear. The issue to me is where centrists will park their vote next time given the choice between an Alberta Party that exceeded expectations in Elbow and a Liberal Party that was honestly an afterthought in four byelections.

Building a party from the ground up takes a lot of time; I think the Alberta Party looks at this as a partial victory. Obviously winning would have been better, but the riding didn't look all that winnable in the beginning. Given that, I don't see how they consider folding their tents after this.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I suspect where we differ is on expectations: I never thought they had a realistic shot in Elbow, so given that I would say their showing was very strong. In that context, the real question is whether they can raise enough money to run that kind of campaign province-wide. If they can they will be a force in the next election, not in Elbow, but Currie, Buffalo, and other urban-sense ridings. Let's not forget that Calgarians, even urban ones, won't vote NDP--that is abundantly clear. The issue to me is where centrists will park their vote next time given the choice between an Alberta Party that exceeded expectations in Elbow and a Liberal Party that was honestly an afterthought in four byelections.

You are forgetting a crucial centrist party - the Prentice PCs. The Alberta PCs are a truly centrist party and the Alberta Party will have to fight for votes with both the Libs and the PCs.

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Building a party from the ground up takes a lot of time; I think the Alberta Party looks at this as a partial victory. Obviously winning would have been better, but the riding didn't look all that winnable in the beginning. Given that, I don't see how they consider folding their tents after this.

They certainly have the strength to fight another day and are in a better position than they were in 2012 but they are still in a very, very tenuous situation. I believe that Elbow was very much a by-election aberration and gave the Alberta Party some much needed media exposure but I can't see it lasting until 2016.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by saillias

Does anyone buy Danielle Smith as a potential premier?

Is it just me or does she come across as diffident and lacking confidence when she speaks to the media. She's only comfortable saying the PCs are no good.

Danielle's time is almost up. I don't expect her to be leading the party in the next general election. The WRP needs a much stronger and more powerful leader in order to challenge Prentice and the PCs. The battle of the females is over and the WRP needs to find their equivalent of Prentice (someone like Preston Manning.)

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Danielle's time is almost up. I don't expect her to be leading the party in the next general election. The WRP needs a much stronger and more powerful leader in order to challenge Prentice and the PCs. The battle of the females is over and the WRP needs to find their equivalent of Prentice (someone like Preston Manning.)

I agree the WRP would do well to pickup a "Prentice" of their own, but I can honestly see them picking up Anders as their leader. $5, I'm calling it now. The guy needs a job right now, and he's already indicated his liking of the WRP. Match made in heaven.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by Ducay

I agree the WRP would do well to pickup a "Prentice" of their own, but I can honestly see them picking up Anders as their leader. $5, I'm calling it now. The guy needs a job right now, and he's already indicated his liking of the WRP. Match made in heaven.

That won't happen. The WRP has large corporate donors who will make sure it won't happen.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Ducay

I agree the WRP would do well to pickup a "Prentice" of their own, but I can honestly see them picking up Anders as their leader. $5, I'm calling it now. The guy needs a job right now, and he's already indicated his liking of the WRP. Match made in heaven.

I don't think the WRP is stupid enough to bring Anders into the party and let him run in any riding. Putting him up for leadership would be the stupidest decision ever and would kill the party.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Ducay

I agree the WRP would do well to pickup a "Prentice" of their own, but I can honestly see them picking up Anders as their leader. $5, I'm calling it now. The guy needs a job right now, and he's already indicated his liking of the WRP. Match made in heaven.

I don't think they're looking to go all in on losing.

[MarchHare]

There's absolutely ZERO chance that Anders becomes the next WRP leader. If he's even on the ballot, I -- a latte-sipping small-l liberal -- will personally buy a party membership just so I can vote against him.

Assuming Smith's upcoming presser is to announce her resignation (what else could it be?), I have no idea who will replace her. Does the WRP have any star candidates waiting in the wings? Someone capable and experienced enough to take on Prentice in a general election? I honestly can't think of anyone. Maybe Jason Kenney, but I think he has eyes on the federal CPC leadership if/when Harper loses an election and resigns.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The Wildrose is at an existential crisis point, if they can't make serious inroads in the cities in the next election they might as well fold as a party, unless they are content maxing out at 20 rural seats with the ability to accomplish nothing. But if the PCs can win again with ease in 2016 I can see the Wildrose folding and their best elected members going back to the PCs.

As for the other side, the Alberta Party/NDP/Liberal shakedown, obviously some kind of merger will have to take place for the center-left to ever have anything that resembles a voice in the legislature. The Liberals in particular are effectively dead now, the Alberta Party is too but at least they went out swinging with Clark. The Liberals seemed content to die out. Whether we get one party instead of three for the next election is anyone's guess, but a true three way race would be a lot more interesting.