Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[Slava]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

Do you feel the same way about the national election or just for by-elections?
I agree that electing someone other than the Conservatives would send a message to Ottawa and probably force them to pay more attention to Alberta.
But extending your view of the candidates getting together to unite behind one of them means that the Liberal party should drop out of the next election to give the NDP the best chance of defeating the Conservatives. It won't happen on a national level so why would anyone expect it to happen on a local level?

Well it might not be something to consider across the country, but there are certain ridings where running two candidates to fight for the scraps just doesn't make any sense. Realistically you will never see the NDP and Liberals unite, and I get that. There are a lot of issues where there are just too many differences between the two.

[PoliSciStudent]

Originally Posted by Slava

LOL. Our Nate Silver? How did Grenier fare during the last federal campaign or provincial campaign here in Alberta? He wasn't close.

I read Grenier all the time, and its a nice place to see what the polls themselves are showing and such, but he hasn't been close when it comes to predicting anything. I know that you're a Turner guy and you want to read this poll like it somehow shows him as on the road to winning, but be realistic about this.

Frankly speaking I still find it hard to believe that so many people are jumping on the bandwagon for a party that has explicitly said it will halt any oil sands expansion as though that was just no big deal. At the same time there is Dan Meades in the single digits, largely for that same kind of sentiment. I suppose that gives you a good reason why his literature doesn't say that he is running for the Greens though....its somewhat disingenuous.

Grenier has shown he can be quite accurate when polling is right. Polling in the US were correct, polls in Canada have been wrong. How was Grenier suppose to predict a large PC victory when polls showed the Wildrose in the lead?

[PoliSciStudent]

Originally Posted by Rathji

I think it is funny that the Liberal party has someone signed up for CP solely to help push their cause in this election and no one has thought to call them on it.

I guess we are getting soft in our old age.

What?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by PoliSciStudent

Grenier has shown he can be quite accurate when polling is right. Polling in the US were correct, polls in Canada have been wrong. How was Grenier suppose to predict a large PC victory when polls showed the Wildrose in the lead?

Well it definitely is a "garbage in, garbage out" scenario. The thing is that he was also wrong looking at the federal campaign as well. A large piece of that is that the US is way more data rich than what we see up here, but it also makes using these polls that much more futile.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Slava

Frankly speaking I still find it hard to believe that so many people are jumping on the bandwagon for a party that has explicitly said it will halt any oil sands expansion as though that was just no big deal.

For me, its all about voting in context. Voting for Chris Turner does not mean the Green Party will gain power. Voting for him means that some of the issues I care about might gain a stronger voice. This is what I care about:

1. I care about the environment.
The development of the Oil sands is not going anywhere, and I think everyone knows that. That does not mean the status quo way of doing things is the best way. There is a giant national party already speaking up for the energy industry....they don't require a larger voice. Voting in a Green party member won't vastly change the course of things, but at least it will give a voice to a greener way of doing business.

Btw, not all of us base their entire decisions on the ebbs and flows of Oil. There are those of us out there who don't work in the energy sector. So for me it's not about turning a blind eye so I can continue to receive a paycheck. I can understand why some take that position, but I have the luxury of not having to.

2. I care about accountability.
The Conservatives clearly take Alberta for granted. At the very least, my vote will go towards sending them a small message that they need to listen to all their constituents. Ideally losing this seat would embarrass them into action. Quebec cries out and it get's action.....it's time we started crying out too.

3. I care about local urban issues.
Chris Turner is clearly a guy who cares about these issues and this city. Crockatt seems like one of those candidates who would pretty much disappear as soon as the election was over, and you wouldn't hear back from her till the next one.

So yeah, that's my train of thought on why I am considering a Green party candidate. I don't agree with everything they stand for, and I'm no fan of Elizabeth May....but all in all, a few key things line up with my thoughts at the moment, so why the hell not?

[corporatejay]

Is it just me or have Turner followers almost turned cult-like in their defense and praise of him?

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Is it just me or have Turner followers almost turned cult-like in their defense and praise of him?

It's just you.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Is it just me or have Turner followers almost turned cult-like in their defense and praise of him?

Not just you. I see it too.

A lot of his campaign rhetoric is positive language to engage a segment of the population turned off by cynicism. Nothing special, but for a lot of people that makes the whole difference. Politics, especially federal politics has devolved into shouting down others positions as opposed to advancing one's own position. To a lot of people changing things up makes them feel better about politics. I can only imagine to someone who's bought in, it must seem like a total buzzkill to have someone bring up a cynical point like yours and thus they're willing to stridently defend against that.

[Bigtime]

My devotion started in 2008 at a BBQ at the Turner's place, they must have put something into the banana leaf napkins (hippies!) we were using that soaked into my skin and started changing my cellular structure...Oh and Nenshi was there and he handed me some purple kool-aid, the rest is history.

[Bigtime]

Just saw this on twitter:

Turnout in #yycentre advance polls is down 60%. If this trend holds for the byelection turnout will be ~22%

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx...dir=pre&lang=e

[Slava]

^ WOW. That's really terrible. 22% is something that people should be ashamed of if that's true.

[corporatejay]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

It's just you.

It just seems that twitter is always talking about the "momentum" and are quick defend him when people dismiss him as a third place "also ran". Look at the comments from this article.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion...544/story.html

Honestly, even with all this momentum, I'd be shocked if he beats Locke, let alone Crockatt.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Slava

^ WOW. That's really terrible. 22% is something that people should be ashamed of if that's true.

I'd say extreme voter apathy is as good a message as the CPC will get in this area.

And the lower the turnout, the worse it is for them. Conservatives don't vote Liberal (or Green) when they're upset, they just don't vote. It's how Cheffins won Ralph Klein's vacant seat a few years back despite being a Liberal and Calgary Centre covers a lot of similar neighborhoods to Calgary Elbow.

[Tinordi]

The story does have legs of its own by virtue that a Green candidate is making a strong showing in Calgary Centre of all places. That's where the interest is coming from.

But I mean, look at this thread, nobody has a cult-like following for Turner or is heaping praise on him. The large part of favourability comes from his grassroots campaigning, his strong performances on debates, and his high appreciation of the issues of the riding. I mean the fact that this is novel in a candidate running for public office should make us all take a step back and assess the situation. Are they saying he's the bees knees of candidates? No. They're saying that they want a refreshing change from the Conservatives and especially their insulated removed candidate. Hardly a cult.

[Tinordi]

Also, the fact is that he does have 'momentum' as dictated by the polls. You may not believe the polls but the momentum story is not conjured out of nothing. It's an interesting twist to what everyone thought would be a run of the mill by-election.

[RatherDashing]

Does anybody know the location of the polling stations? I tried this tool from Elections Canada, but it doesn't seem to be working for me.

http://www.elections.ca/scripts/pss/..._ID=15&PD=

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by corporatejay

Is it just me or have Turner followers almost turned cult-like in their defense and praise of him?

I believe the term is hyper-engaged.

[Bunk]

Or there's this approach to the opportunity to serve:

“If I’m a backbench MP, I’m just fine doing that,” Ms. Crockatt said. “To me, the job is to support the Prime Minister in whatever way that he thinks.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle4541446/

[Table 5]

Speaking of cult-like......

[longsuffering]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Jeez louise, pipe down.

Grenier is as close as you get to a Canadian Nate Silver. Not saying that he's perfect or anything, just that he's an avid Canadian poll watcher.

I'm also not getting into some partisan debate with you, just reporting on the developments in the race. Sure I'd like to see Turner win, that doesn't make me treasonous.

Do you have to be condescending in every post you write?