2011 Toronto Blue Jays Offseason Thread - Page 11 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

JayP · 02-11-2011, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustAnotherGuy

It is my perception that Young is a clutch player etc.

I suppose it doesn't help that I do not think very much of EE. Seems he is cold for most of the time and then gets 3 homers off a weak pitcher.

Well, even if being "clutch" existed (which is debatable), there's a bunch of advanced stats out there that try to quantify it (and the methodology is pretty sound).

Fangraphs.com has a whole slew of them, but the most relevant is the aptly named "Clutch" stat. Here's their one-line definition of it:

"How much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment."

High leverage situations being those where the course of the AB has a major influence of the odds of your team winning/losing (win probability added/subtracted). In other words, clutch situations.

Young rated at -0.43 for his career. Average that total amongst his career, and it's around -0.04/year. A clutch score of 0.00 basically means the player hits the same regardless of the situation. So basically by this measure Young isn't clutch nor is he a choker.

For comparison's sake, EE is +0.82 for his career, which is pretty solid (but nothing spectacular) for how many games he's played.

Clutch is one of those funny things about baseball that's almost impossible to judge by the naked eye. There's way too many games to watch everything so even a hardcore baseball fan is going to miss a chunk of innings every year. Those innings could easily be the ones that disprove people's impressions of a players clutchness. The only real time when people don't miss an inning for an extended period of time is a playoff run, but that is flawed in that a playoff run is at most a 19 game sample size.

ricoFlame · 02-14-2011, 05:21 PM

Bautista arbitration hearing postponed until friday to allow for further contract talks.

Gozer · 02-14-2011, 09:04 PM

I think Cito deserves some credit for keeping Wells an everyday in-feild leader. That had to have optimized his value.

JustAnotherGuy · 02-14-2011, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayP

Well, even if being "clutch" existed (which is debatable), there's a bunch of advanced stats out there that try to quantify it (and the methodology is pretty sound).

Fangraphs.com has a whole slew of them, but the most relevant is the aptly named "Clutch" stat. Here's their one-line definition of it:

"How much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment."

High leverage situations being those where the course of the AB has a major influence of the odds of your team winning/losing (win probability added/subtracted). In other words, clutch situations.

Young rated at -0.43 for his career. Average that total amongst his career, and it's around -0.04/year. A clutch score of 0.00 basically means the player hits the same regardless of the situation. So basically by this measure Young isn't clutch nor is he a choker.

For comparison's sake, EE is +0.82 for his career, which is pretty solid (but nothing spectacular) for how many games he's played.

Clutch is one of those funny things about baseball that's almost impossible to judge by the naked eye. There's way too many games to watch everything so even a hardcore baseball fan is going to miss a chunk of innings every year. Those innings could easily be the ones that disprove people's impressions of a players clutchness. The only real time when people don't miss an inning for an extended period of time is a playoff run, but that is flawed in that a playoff run is at most a 19 game sample size.

Honestly. Thanks for the education on these stats.

But I would still prefer to have Young as my third baseman than EE.

flambers · 02-15-2011, 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustAnotherGuy

Honestly. Thanks for the education on these stats.

But I would still prefer to have Young as my third baseman than EE.

EE is not in the plans for 3rd Base this year, my understanding EE is a bench player who will DH and or play 1st.

Bastista is the 3rd Baseman, I would guess John MacDonald is the backup.

As for Young, he is to expensive for the Jays especially considering the Jays are still a couple of years away. I don't believe Young would add any value to the Jays.

However, I doubt Young would ever waive his NTC to agree with a trade with the Jays.

Gozer · 02-16-2011, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JustAnotherGuy

But I would still prefer to have Young as my third baseman than EE.

Name recognition would be the strongest supporting argument of that move.

Cheese · 02-16-2011, 02:56 PM

The Toronto Blue Jays signed outfielder Scott Podsednik to a minor-league contract Wednesday with an invitation to spring training.

More speed on the basepaths?

Gozer · 02-16-2011, 03:03 PM

LH with speed, hope he rips it up in ST and plays CF.

Caged Great · 02-16-2011, 03:10 PM

He and Davis will likely platoon and gives us a huge speed boost. Between the pair, we'll have no problem pinch running for guys like Molina in clutch situations.

ricoFlame · 02-16-2011, 06:22 PM

sounds like Bautista 5 years $65 mil.

Cheese · 02-16-2011, 06:28 PM

^^^^

yup

sportsnetbarry Barry Davis

ESPN Deportes is reporting The #Jays and Baustista close to agreeing on a 5 year deal worth approx 65 million. Stay tuned

Caged Great · 02-16-2011, 06:30 PM

Don't like that deal at all.

Too long of a term for a player who could blow. Basically got rid of Wells to get another possible Wells....

Caged Great · 02-16-2011, 06:34 PM

On second thought, that isn't actually that bad. Considering his defensive merit, as well as his OBP, he's worth easily 8-10 million on that alone. If he only hits 20-25 home runs, he's worth the 15 million. Any more than that and he'll be a bargain.

Cheese · 02-16-2011, 07:01 PM

13 mill a year...Im sure there will be opt out clauses on both sides after 3 years to help the Blue Jays relieve themselves if it backfires.

ricoFlame · 02-16-2011, 07:06 PM

Pretty safe bargain for a versatile guy defensively with a cannon arm, who has offensive weapons like he does.

secol · 02-16-2011, 08:18 PM

only one season though, and his defense is just average. it's his arm that's good......too expensive and too long IMO. stinks of a poor-man's adrian beltre

Resolute 14 · 02-17-2011, 10:17 AM

Interesting that he was asking for $10 million in arbitration, and got $13 million a season instead. This strikes me as being a desperation deal - the Jays need a big star to stay relevant in Toronto. Now they just need Bautista to remain a big star.

Cheese · 02-17-2011, 10:28 AM

ArashMadani Arash Madani

Farrell on Posednik: "he's more of a true leadoff hitter, like R. Davis." And defence? "He has versatility to play all posn's in OF." #Jays

ArashMadani Arash Madani

Farrell says acquisition of Posednik will not change their plan w/ Travis Snider, who is penciled in to be the everyday LF. #Jays

ArashMadani Arash Madani

Farrell says they're strongly considering going w/ 5 OF. He was surprised Posednik avail being trade ddl acquisition last year & all.

Pagal4321 · 02-17-2011, 10:49 AM

While I might not like the length of it, people can't compare this to being a "Wells" contract. It's $13 million dollars, which isn't apalling by baseball standards.

5 years seems a bit long but can't complain with the direction of the team.

Sylvanfan · 02-17-2011, 12:26 PM

The other thing with Bautista, is that he is a well educated Latin American player who can serve as a mentor for other younger players as they break into the big leagues. It's not a quantifiable stat, but I'm sure that has value for the organization. Let's face it you can sign these foreign free agents for a fair bit less than you have to pay the North American guys that you draft. So that may be a reason why the Blue Jays want to keep a guy like Bautista around for a few years.