Fair enough, I think the real thing they all stress here is until you get beyond the 80-20 range in any model both scenarios are somewhat likely to happen, while people often look at these models a right or wrong. And the polling race being a 50-50 tie doesn't mean that the EC will be close, since the the 7 key battle ground states will probably go 5-2 or 6-1, one way or the other.
The way I look at this race is you could pretty much take either parties odds of winning each of those 7 states, apply it to this formula and you have the overall odds.
(Penn x Mich x NC) + (Penn x Mich x Georg) + (Penn x NC x Georg) + (Mich x NC x Georg)
+
Odds remaining after you apply the above to both parties x Ari x Wiss
+
odds remaining x Nev.
So it all boils down to how you rate their odds of winning those 7 states.
There's so much to unpack here, but why aren't they feeding him rails before this shoot so he can at least give the Billy Mays level effort on trying to hawk this ####? He really has come off as Celtics Shaq this campaign with how washed he is.
The thought of losing to a colored women is really really making him unhinged. He's absolutely kicking himself now for debating Biden.
That debate in June might be the most important 90 minutes in recent American history as it sunk both candidates.
I never really thought about that too much, but yeah, it's kind of funny how Trump didn't debate any republicans in the primary, then was pretty proud of himself for his debate against Biden, only for it totally backfire with Biden being replaced.
I'm curious on how this will effect future elections? Will there be more candidates swapped out last minute? Will they hedge their bets better with attack ads?
There's so much to unpack here, but why aren't they feeding him rails before this shoot so he can at least give the Billy Mays level effort on trying to hawk this ####? He really has come off as Celtics Shaq this campaign with how washed he is.
There's so much to unpack here, but why aren't they feeding him rails before this shoot so he can at least give the Billy Mays level effort on trying to hawk this ####? He really has come off as Celtics Shaq this campaign with how washed he is.
There's so much to unpack here, but why aren't they feeding him rails before this shoot so he can at least give the Billy Mays level effort on trying to hawk this ####? He really has come off as Celtics Shaq this campaign with how washed he is.
tens of millions will vote for this man in November.
I remember John Oliver's segment 5 or 6 years ago where he made the point that people should always remember that "this is not normal". Well, 5 or 6 years later and we have an unhinged presidential candidate hawking trading cards to his zombie followers. I used to find "Idiocracy" funny ...
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There's so much to unpack here, but why aren't they feeding him rails before this shoot so he can at least give the Billy Mays level effort on trying to hawk this ####? He really has come off as Celtics Shaq this campaign with how washed he is.
I never really thought about that too much, but yeah, it's kind of funny how Trump didn't debate any republicans in the primary, then was pretty proud of himself for his debate against Biden, only for it totally backfire with Biden being replaced.
I'm curious on how this will effect future elections? Will there be more candidates swapped out last minute? Will they hedge their bets better with attack ads?
I wonder if someone on the Biden side set up this early debate to expose the President and try and get him to step down? It seemed odd at the time that they wanted to debate so early.
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I get this is absurdly heavy handed, but I can see the MAGA Project 2025ers struggling to figure out what's wrong with this ad.
What's heavy handed in the depiction? IMO this is exactly what they are proposing. Even worse I understand that they are proposing occasional check stops for this sort of thing. That might have made an even better ad.
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The way the actor playing the sheriff says, "Not anymore." Really struck me, found it chilling. Project 2025 is an orwellian nightmare.
I have two girls (12 & 13). I've kept my Canadian citizenship and we have plans to move to Canada if we need to. We'd lose our business by doing so (I'd be able to keep my job) but our girls safety is our #1 priority.
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