American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I don't understand why people are acting like this is over or that Trump is toast. Yeah, the coverage has been lopsided and the Dems have pitched a no hitter for weeks basically but look at recent swing state polls. They're all within like... 2 points. Recent PA polls have Trump up, again within the MOE. So what happens when something doesn't go perfectly for Harris for a week or two?

I am still very nervous about this outcome.

It's inconceivable that enough women/persons of color will vote for Trump to elect him president. Inconceivable

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

It's inconceivable that enough women/persons of color will vote for Trump to elect him president. Inconceivable

It is conceivable that enough liberals just don't vote which puts Trump back in power. Happened in 2016, and now there are a lot of pissy hard-left liberals who might stay home just to spite the democrats for the Israel issue

[Josh]

I've never been contacted for a poll in my life and just got sent two yesterday (yes I participated).

[Josh]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

It is conceivable that enough liberals just don't vote which puts Trump back in power. Happened in 2016, and now there are a lot of pissy hard-left liberals who might stay home just to spite the democrats for the Israel issue

Hillary was a VERY uninspiring candidate.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Josh

Hillary was a VERY uninspiring candidate.

Not to mention the email scandal and months of "Trump cant win"

Last time was record turnout and big shocker Trump lost

[direwolf]

Democrat voters seem very motivated and enthusiastic right now, which is great. If the election were held tomorrow, Harris likely wins.

What worries me is that there are still 2 more months to go, which is an eternity in politics. The key for team blue is to find a way to sustain their current momentum until November. I think they can do it, but it’s gonna take a lot of work and they’re gonna have to campaign hard in the swing states. As long as Trump continues to sink his campaign with his stupid, insane bulls***, I think the Dems have a real good shot here.

[Mathgod]

[MRCboicgy]

Originally Posted by #-3

Well 538 is back up and running with their EC model.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Good time for a reminder that 538's model isn't the same one used in previous years, as Nate Silver retained the IP after he left Disney.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-d...s-new-election

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by MRCboicgy

Good time for a reminder that 538's model isn't the same one used in previous years, as Nate Silver retained the IP after he left Disney.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-d...s-new-election

I don't think it is possible to model this election as there is no precedent for so many significant factors?

How do you even factor in incumbency? Harris is the incumbent VP, Trump is a former president. Kamala had no primary. Trump basically had no competitive primary and got in like a sitting president would. The economy is pretty good by most indicators, but viewed as lousy by the public mostly because of inflation.

I think national and state polls are all we can go by this time around, as there is just no way to have any confidence in any model methodology.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I don't think it is possible to model this election as there is no precedent for so many significant factors?



How do you even factor in incumbency? Harris is the incumbent VP, Trump is a former president. Kamala had no primary. Trump basically had no competitive primary and got in like a sitting president would. The economy is pretty good by most indicators, but viewed as lousy by the public mostly because of inflation.



I think national and state polls are all we can go by this time around, as there is just no way to have any confidence in any model methodology.

The thing is that most of that is less relevant than polling. Polling is actually reasonably accurate these days. The trouble is that the margins are so thin that error bars make parsing them difficult

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Josh

Hillary was a VERY uninspiring candidate.

She beat Trump by 3 million votes.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by MRCboicgy

Good time for a reminder that 538's model isn't the same one used in previous years, as Nate Silver retained the IP after he left Disney.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-d...s-new-election

I knew Nate Silver left but not that the fundamental model was different. Thank you very much!

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

She beat Trump by 3 million votes.

Sure, but the Dakota territories have 56x the voting power of California.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by SutterBrother

Sure, but the Dakota territories have 56x the voting power of California.

huh? 2-3 times more maybe.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

I knew Nate Silver left but not that the fundamental model was different. Thank you very much!

It's not only different from when Silver was there, but it's also quite different than it was even a couple of months ago. Their model used to be heavily fundamentals based (i.e. economic indicators, incumbency, etc. all played a large role). So they had Biden being the favorite even a few days before he stepped down and when his polling numbers were in the toilet.

It seems they've revamped it to give more weight to polling, but I honestly wouldn't put a ton of stock into their model vs. other ones or just looking at the polls.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

huh? 2-3 times more maybe.

Hyperbole. But mostly thinking about the senate, where originally states appointed senators to represent the interests of the state.

Now that they're elected it gives more voting power to smaller populations.

N+S Dakota have a combined population of 1.6 million, and 4 senators.

California has 40 million, and 2 senators.

Hence the GOP running so much of this country, despite almost always losing the popular vote.

https://fairvote.org/archives/the_el...ectoral_votes/

[dino7c]

anecdotal but I know women with MAGA type husbands that just go along with the nonsense in public (polls) but have confessed to my wife that in the booth they are voting NDP all the way.

I could see that happening big time in this election with the Womens rights issues. Get rid of the Trump nonsense and get back to the republican party of the past if you must, Women are smarter than man after all.

[Josh]

Originally Posted by dino7c

anecdotal but I know women with MAGA type husbands that just go along with the nonsense in public (polls) but have confessed to my wife that in the booth they are voting NDP all the way.

I could see that happening big time in this election with the Womens rights issues. Get rid of the Trump nonsense and get back to the republican party of the past if you must, Women are smarter than man after all.

Yep, look what happened in some VERY red states when abortion was on the ballot.

[activeStick]

Not election related, but definitely American politics related, an important piece by The New Yorker on what happens when America brings democracy and freedom to a country.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1828434454861205526

[Senator Clay Davis]

There's so much to unpack here, but why aren't they feeding him rails before this shoot so he can at least give the Billy Mays level effort on trying to hawk this ####? He really has come off as Celtics Shaq this campaign with how washed he is.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1828503688685441121