[News] The Athletic releases list of worst contracts (we’re #1!)

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Hockey-and_stuff

n.

So no use gnashing your teeth over Huberdeaus position in this model. It will likely be off the bottom 10 in 3-4 years with a mix of improved play and the passage of time and other GMs handing out stinky deals.

I wouldn't expect Huberdeau at his age to keep "improving his play".

If he can keep his present level going for the next 3-4 years, we should consider ourselves lucky.

[united]

And today, The Athletic, for FUN, released their roster of worst value while coming close to the cap ceiling (within $1 million IIRC). Huberdeau, of course, was a shoo-in. Bahl, along with Chiarot and Holl, got honourable mention for the second pairing, but ultimately the author selected Ceci and Graves.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/654...t-roster-2025/

Huberdeau (10.5) - Lindholm (7.8) - Stephenson (6.3)
Jeannot (3.4) - Trenin (3.5) - Frederic (3.9)
Engvall (3.0) - Joshua (3.3) - Olivier (3.0)
Tanev (2.5) - Gourde (2.3) - Evans (2.9)

Provorov (8.5) - Skjei (7.0)
Graves (4.5) - Ceci (4.5)
Mayfield (3.5) - Walker (3.6)

Grubauer (5.9)
Merzlikins (5.4)

Total $95.1 million
Projected goal differential -87

[Monahammer]

We attempted to give those contracts to all three of the top line players on that roster.

Bahl is a head scratching inclusion though, can you divulge why they mentioned him honorably?

[HighLifeMan]

Huberdeau to me had a much better season than his 62 points would indicate. For context Huberdeau had 54 Primary Points last year which falls in line with players like Eichel (55), Thomas (56), Stutzle (52) and Jarvis (54)

The lack of secondary scoring and general talent level on the roster absolutely hurts a guy like Huberdeau specifically considering he's one of the games purest playmakers. His second most common linemate at 5 on 5 had 4 goals on the year.

The fact he only had 8 secondary assists is quite frankly shocking.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Huberdeau to me had a much better season than his 62 points would indicate. For context Huberdeau had 54 Primary Points last year which falls in line with players like Eichel (55), Thomas (56), Stutzle (52) and Jarvis (54)

The lack of secondary scoring and general talent level on the roster absolutely hurts a guy like Huberdeau specifically considering he's one of the games purest playmakers. His second most common linemate at 5 on 5 had 4 goals on the year.

The fact he only had 8 secondary assists is quite frankly shocking.

We have a really bad forward core. It's not shocking, we have very few players capable of scoring regularly. Secondary assists basically require other people to generate offense, and no one is doing that on the flames.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

We attempted to give those contracts to all three of the top line players on that roster.

Bahl is a head scratching inclusion though, can you divulge why they mentioned him honorably?

Not much said about him in this article:
"Kevin Bahl is at least worth a look, but at 25 he’s got enough upside to defend that deal".

But there were more details in the contract efficiency ranking.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/652...rankings-2025/

They calculate that Bahl's contract only has a 20.8% positive value with a net deficit of -11.7M over the life of the contract, for a D+ grade.

This is all based on his net rating rankings, which I haven't done a deep dive in to understand, but where I have tried to look, he doesn't explain it very well.

"Those roles were established by ranking each player by their projected Net Rating. A top-line player would be among the top 96 forwards (three forwards per 32 teams), a top-pair player would be among the top 64 defensemen (two defensemen per 32 teams), and so on. I also included a “franchise” tag at the very top end (top 32 forwards and top 16 defenders) in order to separate the league’s true difference-makers. They’re the ones who deservingly make the big bucks. "

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Huberdeau to me had a much better season than his 62 points would indicate. For context Huberdeau had 54 Primary Points last year which falls in line with players like Eichel (55), Thomas (56), Stutzle (52) and Jarvis (54)

The lack of secondary scoring and general talent level on the roster absolutely hurts a guy like Huberdeau specifically considering he's one of the games purest playmakers. His second most common linemate at 5 on 5 had 4 goals on the year.

The fact he only had 8 secondary assists is quite frankly shocking.

Last year was Huberdeau’s worst in Calgary for assist production (only 34 assists) and I believe it can be 100% attributed to the reasons you mention.

I expect he will get back to around 40 assists next year, but his unsustainable shooting percentage is very unlikely to repeat. So still probably looking at a point total in the high 50s.

[Mr.Coffee]

Any list that doesn’t have Nurse is garbage. Glad to see Frederic on there because I am still blown away they gave that guy 8 years. He has to have pictures of Bowman.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Any list that doesn’t have Nurse is garbage. Glad to see Frederic on there because I am still blown away they gave that guy 8 years. He has to have pictures of Bowman.

Nurse was honorable mention but they didn't want to bring in too many high salaries to remain cap compliant.

Moving down the list, I did run into two deals that feel like serious candidates for our roster. The first is Darnell Nurse and his $9.25 million cap hit that continues to throw a wrench into the Oilers’ hopes, while the other is the new Ivan Provorov deal at $8.5 million that felt like a case of the Columbus tax taken to extremes. I think you could make a strong case that Nurse’s deal is a far bigger problem for his current team, given where the Oilers and Blue Jackets each are in the championship cycle. But for our purposes, Provorov has three additional years to worry about on a seven-year deal, so I’ll take him and save a bit of space in the process. Ivan Provorov is our top defenseman. And I’ll pair him with Brady Skjei, whose seven-year, $7 million UFA deal with the Predators already looks awful just one year in.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Not much said about him in this article:
"Kevin Bahl is at least worth a look, but at 25 he’s got enough upside to defend that deal".

But there were more details in the contract efficiency ranking.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/652...rankings-2025/

They calculate that Bahl's contract only has a 20.8% positive value with a net deficit of -11.7M over the life of the contract, for a D+ grade.

This is all based on his net rating rankings, which I haven't done a deep dive in to understand, but where I have tried to look, he doesn't explain it very well.

"Those roles were established by ranking each player by their projected Net Rating. A top-line player would be among the top 96 forwards (three forwards per 32 teams), a top-pair player would be among the top 64 defensemen (two defensemen per 32 teams), and so on. I also included a “franchise” tag at the very top end (top 32 forwards and top 16 defenders) in order to separate the league’s true difference-makers. They’re the ones who deservingly make the big bucks. "

It's pretty evident that the Flames and Flames fans may hold a higher opinion of Bahl than the rest of the NHL or at least advanced stats models/metrics.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

How many years will it take for someone to dethrone Huberdeau? His production will drop as he continues to age, but the salary cap will go up and possibly lead to another massive overpay. I’m kinda skeptical if there will be a worse contract in the league over the next 6 years.

I think there is an outside chance that Huberdeau plays himself out of this hole. With the way Parekh is trending/Coronato developing further, if the PP takes another step, Huberdeau could add another 10-15 pts to his totals. Around ~30-35 PP pts gets him in the 70-75 pts range. Would he still be considered the worst contract in the league at that production?

I think he's sorely missing playing with a good Center.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It's pretty evident that the Flames and Flames fans may hold a higher opinion of Bahl than the rest of the NHL or at least advanced stats models/metrics.

Not sure how you draw any conclusions about how the rest of the NHL feels about him. If anything it could be another example of the gap between how these models perceive these types of players (big, mobile, but largely defensive blueliners) v. how they are valued by NHL teams

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by united

And today, The Athletic, for FUN, released their roster of worst value while coming close to the cap ceiling (within $1 million IIRC). Huberdeau, of course, was a shoo-in. Bahl, along with Chiarot and Holl, got honourable mention for the second pairing, but ultimately the author selected Ceci and Graves.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/654...t-roster-2025/

Huberdeau (10.5) - Lindholm (7.8) - Stephenson (6.3)
Jeannot (3.4) - Trenin (3.5) - Frederic (3.9)
Engvall (3.0) - Joshua (3.3) - Olivier (3.0)
Tanev (2.5) - Gourde (2.3) - Evans (2.9)

Provorov (8.5) - Skjei (7.0)
Graves (4.5) - Ceci (4.5)
Mayfield (3.5) - Walker (3.6)

Grubauer (5.9)
Merzlikins (5.4)

Total $95.1 million
Projected goal differential -87

I get it is a "fun" exercise, but why be cap compliant? They could have dropped Huberdeau and added Nurse if compliance is an issue. It should have both players on the team, no question for me.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

I get it is a "fun" exercise, but why be cap compliant? They could have dropped Huberdeau and added Nurse if compliance is an issue. It should have both players on the team, no question for me.

They did consider Nurse, and pointed out that you can make a good argument that Nurses contract impacts Edmonton more than Provorov, but they determined that the extra 3 years of Provorovs deal was the deciding factor.

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[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Hockey-and_stuff

They did consider Nurse, and pointed out that you can make a good argument that Nurses contract impacts Edmonton more than Provorov, but they determined that the extra 3 years of Provorovs deal was the deciding factor.

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I get that, but I don't see why they wouldn't include both Nurse and Provorov. Those are both terrible contracts

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

I get that, but I don't see why they wouldn't include both Nurse and Provorov. Those are both terrible contracts

Well as you said, they tried to be cap compliant. You can debate why the bothered, but this is what they decided to do. They tried to make the worst possible value roster while also being under the salary cap.

Maybe they will do an all worst roster too, who knows.

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[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Hockey-and_stuff

Well as you said, they tried to be cap compliant. You can debate why the bothered, but this is what they decided to do. They tried to make the worst possible value roster while also being under the salary cap.

Maybe they will do an all worst roster too, who knows.

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That is what I am trying to debate.

They tried to make a stats based argument for worst contracts, but then added in a subjective layer so that they create a cap compliant team. It doesn't make sense.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

That is what I am trying to debate.



They tried to make a stats based argument for worst contracts, but then added in a subjective layer so that they create a cap compliant team. It doesn't make sense.

Adding some subjectivity certainly adds more to discuss.

You may find making their roster cap complaint arbitrary, but at least it would fall in line with a real NHL roster. I dont think it's a weird thing to do.

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[blankall]

Originally Posted by Hockey-and_stuff

That would only be a marginal improvement on his most recent season. You'd probably need to see an 80+ point season to begin to close the negative surplus value gap

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It's a pretty thin line between 1st and 2nd line production. 60 points puts him at 2nd line production, and the 6ish million dollar contract. 70 points, puts him at 1st line production and an 8ish million dollar contract.

If Parekh can indeed become a true PP QB, it will give everyone on the PP a decent bump.

Huberdeau had 23 PP points. If he can push himself up to 30 PP points and get another 6 points somewhere else, he's looking at a 75 point season, which is probably worth $8-9 million in today's market.

[Sofa GM]

Hockey Writers also posted an article yesterday how the Flames are one of the worst positioned teams with respect to the cap due to Huberdeau deal and not liking the Bahl deal. But guess which team is in one of the best positions…… blows my mind