[Barn Burner] Boomer: "You were wrong"

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Buffalo's is actually starting to look really good now.
Vancouver has never gone full scorched earth yet, not even this year.
Toronto has also never gone full scorched earth
Columbus just sucks, doesnt matter what they do.
Arizona is the epitome of how not to run a franchise, I wouldn't use them as a case point in anything NHL related. Not sure how Chayka is still employed.

The other MAJOR factor in scorched earth rebuilds is doing so in years where the draft stock is high. Couple that with almost certainly requiring you to get lucky and draft 1st if not top 2-3 during your worst years of said rebuild.

Edmonton got lucky (5 times over and still managed to F__k it up) - Still suck
Toronto got lucky with Matthews
Pittsburgh got lucky w/ Crosby and Malkin
Washington w/ Ovechkin etc etc

Buffalo on the other hand is the 'slow' rebuild model, where you inevitably get stuck rebuilding because your worst year you lose the draft lottery to the bloody oilers and McSaviour ends up out west.

He's not...left in 2020 and was officially suspended by the league in 2021.

Again, I have no idea how some of you are all evaluating what the term "scorched earth" means, but if you pick around top 5 for several years in a row, that's as close as it gets with the draft lottery the way it is. There's no point in being the absolute worst because you end up like Buffalo getting screwed over by dropping a spot in McDavid's draft year.

You're right, it's a lot of luck, so if you happen to land enough players that accelerate a rebuild, don't wait around. ELCs only last so long, so if you wait 5-7 years to be good, all those original top picks could be gone.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Buffalo's is actually starting to look really good now.
Vancouver has never gone full scorched earth yet, not even this year.
Toronto has also never gone full scorched earth
Columbus just sucks, doesnt matter what they do.
Arizona is the epitome of how not to run a franchise, I wouldn't use them as a case point in anything NHL related. Not sure how Chayka is still employed.

The other MAJOR factor in scorched earth rebuilds is doing so in years where the draft stock is high. Couple that with almost certainly requiring you to get lucky and draft 1st if not top 2-3 during your worst years of said rebuild.

Edmonton got lucky (5 times over and still managed to F__k it up) - Still suck
Toronto got lucky with Matthews
Pittsburgh got lucky w/ Crosby and Malkin
Washington w/ Ovechkin etc etc

Buffalo on the other hand is the 'slow' rebuild model, where you inevitably get stuck rebuilding because your worst year you lose the draft lottery to the bloody oilers and McSaviour ends up out west.

You are being very forgiving of the Sabres.
They were fortunate to get a player of Jack Eichel's quality.
If anything they are an example of how hard rebuilds are. Even now saying they are looking good now is weird. On what basis? They are tracking to miss the playoffs yet again.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

You are being very forgiving of the Sabres.
They were fortunate to get a player of Jack Eichel's quality.
If anything they are an example of how hard rebuilds are. Even now saying they are looking good now is weird. On what basis? They are tracking to miss the playoffs yet again.

Yea you're not wrong, but Eichel is no McDavid.
But in my opinion there's no denying the Sabres would be in a completely different state had they won the McDavid lottery.

But yes, I agree rebuilds are very difficult because it takes tanking at the right time and getting lucky with lottery picks.

On the basis that they have a good young core that they are locking up long term and have improved vastly this year over last.

Dahlin
Power
Thompson
Cozens
Tuch
Luukkonen is coming into his own and only 23

Complimentary young pieces in Quinn/Peterka/Krebs
Just this past year they got Matthew Savoie , Ostlund and Kulich who've all looked really good and Isak Rosen from 2021 who we haven't seen yet.

They kept very few complimentary pieces and sold those off for assets which has helped this rebuild, but not without some luck.

Dahlin and Power both lottery 1st overall picks.
Eichel and Reinhart (2 O/A picks) who they traded for huge hauls which worked out in their favor.

Not to mention very dark times for a LONG time.
This is why I agree its very hard to scorched earth rebuild and turn it around in 3-5 years. It takes more than just being bad, it takes lottery luck and getting bonified stars with lottery picks on the backs of your scouts doing great work.

[PeteMoss]

Even with them looking better - do they look like a team that's going to be constant Stanley Cup contender every year? They've been god awful forever and still barely have a first line even after having a guy make about the most unprecedented turn from plug to star in years.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Even with them looking better - do they look like a team that's going to be constant Stanley Cup contender every year? They've been god awful forever and still barely have a first line even after having a guy make about the most unprecedented turn from plug to star in years.

They've looked better than the Flames for most of the year and their the youngest team in the league.

Do the Flames look like a contender year after year? Because history has shown us that this team is a complete mediocrity since 89.

Do the Flames have a clear cut first line?

This could be said about half the teams in the league, it's okay to hate on the Sabres but you're going a bit off the board here.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I have no idea how some of you are all evaluating what the term "scorched earth" means

Scorched earth is doing things with clear intent. Buffalo, New Jersey, and Detroit have gone as close to scorched earth as you can get. LA and Anaheim sort of when scorched earth, but did not fully commit. Arizona has not gone scorched earth, they have gone full nuclear winter, although they could be showing signs of life after years of desolation.

Scorched earth (IMO) is where you make a concerted effort to sell off everything of value and accrue as many picks and prospects as you can, attempting to build critical mass in your organization. A team that fully commits to scorched earth is going to follow this plan.

1) Have multiple 1st round picks in consecutive years and have a big number of picks year-to-year.

Detroit is a great example here. They started what I would consider scorched earth during the 2016 season and started to pile up the picks. Between the 2017 and 2022 drafts they made 7 picks in the 1st round, 12 picks in the 2nd round, 10 picks in the 3rd round, 9 picks in the 4th round, 6 picks in the 5th round, 7 picks in the 6th round, and 8 picks in the 7th round. The Flames made 34 picks total during that time. The Red Wings picked more in the first four rounds of the draft (38) and ended up with 59 picks during this period! The normal number of picks is 42 and Detroit was an astounding +17 selections. That's commitment.

2) Dealing away their best players for the best prospects and picks they can find and supplemental picks where possible. Buffalo has committed to doing this, even though a player pretty much forced their hand. Getting Tuch and Krebs for Eichel and Thompson for O'Reilly. Like Detroit, Buffalo also has been making sure they collect draft picks, picking 5 times in the 1st round and 11 times in the first three rounds in the last two drafts.

3) Staying away from bad contracts with long terms and flipping short-term contracts for assets. This is where Buffalo failed a bit in this process but New Jersey was more successful. The important thing is to make sure you deal away players with value and keep your eye on the prize down the line. This has always been the Flames' biggest weakness, believing that just getting in gives them a real shot at a cup when it normally just ends up in more failure.

That's how I believe scorched earth works and why the Flames have never gone that route.

if you pick around top 5 for several years in a row, that's as close as it gets with the draft lottery the way it is.

I don't see this as being scorched earth. I see this as just being a bad team, a la Columbus. The important thing is building and creating critical mass within your organization. This is where Calgary has always been a failure. They rarely draft a lot, and then they rarely develop their players to the point where there is critical mass in the system.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by Royle9

Yea you're not wrong, but Eichel is no McDavid.

But in my opinion there's no denying the Sabres would be in a completely different state had they won the McDavid lottery.

And I'd love to see what state the Oilers would be in right now, had they not fluked out in 2015. Even with Crysaitl, I bet they're a mess. Oilers basically stole the Sabres future (and are still somehow blowing their own McWindow)

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

You are being very forgiving of the Sabres.
They were fortunate to get a player of Jack Eichel's quality.
If anything they are an example of how hard rebuilds are. Even now saying they are looking good now is weird. On what basis? They are tracking to miss the playoffs yet again.

No kidding, Eichel goes #1 almost any other year

Buffalo has missed the playoffs 11 straight years and are an okay 9th or 10th place team this season...not exactly a ringing endorsement of shrewd management. Their attendance has also taken a MAJOR nose dive.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

And I'd love to see what state the Oilers would be in right now, had they not fluked out in 2015. Even with Crysaitl, I bet they're a mess. Oilers basically stole the Sabres future (and are still somehow blowing their own McWindow)

Picking one of Hanifin or Marner I expect. Decent players and Marner has excelled with Matthews. But Edmonton would have absolutely ruined either one.

[Inglewood Jack]

Buffalo's not there yet but you'd probably find most analysts are bullish on their future given their youth and potential. Colorado and NJ are recent examples of teams that drafted a buttload in the first 5 picks and emerged from scorched earth. so yea full scale rebuilds can easily fail especially if management sucks, but there's more than enough examples where they do work. I'd like to see some examples of team composed of veteran mercenaries being considered a yearly cup contender, because that sounds like a way less likely path to consistent success.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack

Buffalo's not there yet but you'd probably find most analysts are bullish on their future given their youth and potential. Colorado and NJ are recent examples of teams that drafted a buttload in the first 5 picks and emerged from scorched earth. so yea full scale rebuilds can easily fail especially if management sucks, but there's more than enough examples where they do work. I'd like to see some examples of team composed of veteran mercenaries being considered a yearly cup contender, because that sounds like a way less likely path to consistent success.

They have been rebuilding for over a decade is the point I think...every team will be decent eventually.

[Goriders]

I’d rather have watched the Flames over Buffalo for the last 10 years.

I think that’s a big one for the owners. Making money. I wouldn’t leave that out of your analysis.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Yeah, the bar is low, but the Flames have played better hockey over the last decade

Sabres will be an exciting team in the coming seasons though

[Inglewood Jack]

Originally Posted by Goriders

I’d rather have watched the Flames over Buffalo for the last 10 years.

I think that’s a big one for the owners. Making money. I wouldn’t leave that out of your analysis.

I promise I'm not trying to dunk on the Flames but it will be fascinating to have this same comparison again in 2033. I hope it's us that still has the better next decade but I wouldn't be my life on it.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack

I promise I'm not trying to dunk on the Flames but it will be fascinating to have this same comparison again in 2033. I hope it's us that still has the better next decade but I wouldn't be my life on it.

The question in 10 years would be who's had the best 20 years. If you suck fiercely for a decade - you don't just toss it away if you ever get good again.

[dobbles]

So we can talk about all these teams that failed to commit to a true rebuild, but who are we holding up as the shining example of a team that tore it all down and rebuilt a powerhouse?

A lot of people seem to think that should be the plan, or should have been in the summer. But who are you trying to emulate????

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

I'm for the "keep your high draft picks, draft well, and graduate one prospect per year" approach

Essentially emulating the 1992-2016 red wings, and 1999-2019 sharks, who sustained their competitiveness with consistent drafting and didn't require a major teardown for multiple decades

The Bruins could also be thrown into that category

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by dobbles

So we can talk about all these teams that failed to commit to a true rebuild, but who are we holding up as the shining example of a team that tore it all down and rebuilt a powerhouse?

A lot of people seem to think that should be the plan, or should have been in the summer. But who are you trying to emulate????

Colorado, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles... Pretty much any team with multiple Stanley Cups over the past 15 years had multiple high draft picks on them (and I'm including the Avs in there because I think they'll win another before their time is up).

Sure, you could turn out like Buffalo, but that's a risk worth taking.

The reality is that most successful rebuilds include an element of luck. You have to draft in the first round, and you have to hit on your picks. And it's a lot easier to hit on a top 3 pick than it is on the 15th overall pick.

Yes, I'm aware there are other ways to build a team, but I think through the draft is clearly the best way to go. As bad as Buffalo has been, at the very least the fans could be sold on the future and that team is looking like they're ready to be competitive again soon. Some of the best seasons I had as a Flames fan was from 2013-2015 watching Monahan, Gaudreau, and Sam Bennett's progression. You knew the team stunk, but you watched anyway and had something to cheer for and be excited about. Flames lose 4-3 but the young guys had 3 points? Fun to watch.

This team just feels like a group of hired goons that I have no emotional attachment to. I invested a lot of my fandom watching the last core develop from young prospects into legit NHL talent. I want to have a team that excites me again in some way.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Scorched earth is doing things with clear intent. Buffalo, New Jersey, and Detroit have gone as close to scorched earth as you can get. LA and Anaheim sort of when scorched earth, but did not fully commit. Arizona has not gone scorched earth, they have gone full nuclear winter, although they could be showing signs of life after years of desolation.

Scorched earth (IMO) is where you make a concerted effort to sell off everything of value and accrue as many picks and prospects as you can, attempting to build critical mass in your organization. A team that fully commits to scorched earth is going to follow this plan.

1) Have multiple 1st round picks in consecutive years and have a big number of picks year-to-year.

Detroit is a great example here. They started what I would consider scorched earth during the 2016 season and started to pile up the picks. Between the 2017 and 2022 drafts they made 7 picks in the 1st round, 12 picks in the 2nd round, 10 picks in the 3rd round, 9 picks in the 4th round, 6 picks in the 5th round, 7 picks in the 6th round, and 8 picks in the 7th round. The Flames made 34 picks total during that time. The Red Wings picked more in the first four rounds of the draft (38) and ended up with 59 picks during this period! The normal number of picks is 42 and Detroit was an astounding +17 selections. That's commitment.

2) Dealing away their best players for the best prospects and picks they can find and supplemental picks where possible. Buffalo has committed to doing this, even though a player pretty much forced their hand. Getting Tuch and Krebs for Eichel and Thompson for O'Reilly. Like Detroit, Buffalo also has been making sure they collect draft picks, picking 5 times in the 1st round and 11 times in the first three rounds in the last two drafts.

3) Staying away from bad contracts with long terms and flipping short-term contracts for assets. This is where Buffalo failed a bit in this process but New Jersey was more successful. The important thing is to make sure you deal away players with value and keep your eye on the prize down the line. This has always been the Flames' biggest weakness, believing that just getting in gives them a real shot at a cup when it normally just ends up in more failure.

That's how I believe scorched earth works and why the Flames have never gone that route.




I don't see this as being scorched earth. I see this as just being a bad team, a la Columbus. The important thing is building and creating critical mass within your organization. This is where Calgary has always been a failure. They rarely draft a lot, and then they rarely develop their players to the point where there is critical mass in the system.

So for Buffalo and Detroit, what players did they trade away who still had term on their contract? Not counting guys who asked to be dealt. Dealing away pending UFA's is something every team does when they are out of the playoffs.

And if there are examples of that, what position was the team in when they did it? Were they last place in the league bad, or 2 points out of a playoff spot bad.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Scorched earth is doing things with clear intent. Buffalo, New Jersey, and Detroit have gone as close to scorched earth as you can get. LA and Anaheim sort of when scorched earth, but did not fully commit. Arizona has not gone scorched earth, they have gone full nuclear winter, although they could be showing signs of life after years of desolation.

Scorched earth (IMO) is where you make a concerted effort to sell off everything of value and accrue as many picks and prospects as you can, attempting to build critical mass in your organization. A team that fully commits to scorched earth is going to follow this plan.

1) Have multiple 1st round picks in consecutive years and have a big number of picks year-to-year.

Detroit is a great example here. They started what I would consider scorched earth during the 2016 season and started to pile up the picks. Between the 2017 and 2022 drafts they made 7 picks in the 1st round, 12 picks in the 2nd round, 10 picks in the 3rd round, 9 picks in the 4th round, 6 picks in the 5th round, 7 picks in the 6th round, and 8 picks in the 7th round. The Flames made 34 picks total during that time. The Red Wings picked more in the first four rounds of the draft (38) and ended up with 59 picks during this period! The normal number of picks is 42 and Detroit was an astounding +17 selections. That's commitment.

2) Dealing away their best players for the best prospects and picks they can find and supplemental picks where possible. Buffalo has committed to doing this, even though a player pretty much forced their hand. Getting Tuch and Krebs for Eichel and Thompson for O'Reilly. Like Detroit, Buffalo also has been making sure they collect draft picks, picking 5 times in the 1st round and 11 times in the first three rounds in the last two drafts.

3) Staying away from bad contracts with long terms and flipping short-term contracts for assets. This is where Buffalo failed a bit in this process but New Jersey was more successful. The important thing is to make sure you deal away players with value and keep your eye on the prize down the line. This has always been the Flames' biggest weakness, believing that just getting in gives them a real shot at a cup when it normally just ends up in more failure.

That's how I believe scorched earth works and why the Flames have never gone that route.




I don't see this as being scorched earth. I see this as just being a bad team, a la Columbus. The important thing is building and creating critical mass within your organization. This is where Calgary has always been a failure. They rarely draft a lot, and then they rarely develop their players to the point where there is critical mass in the system.

So do you have any example of scorched earth rebuilds that won a Stanley Cup within 7 years of starting the rebuild?