Are the Flames BETTER than they were in 2021-22?

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

The added playoffs experience of all players, the center depth, the depth on D, and the commitment of the team to go for it in the playoffs are where I see improvement.

Point totals depend on way too many factors to predict, but I do feel like there's now a better alignment than there has been in many years between all levels of the organization that they're in it to go for a championship this year, and that's pretty big. Sutter came back for a championship, but I'm not confident that's what our stars were playing for last year. This year, ownership, Treliving, Sutter, and the new stars all seem very clear about what this team is expected to play for. That's pretty promising.

Hindsight, it's now pretty clear what they were playing for last season, personal stats. It was a fun regular season, watching our stars racking points. Then when the playoff rolled around, it's same old, same old.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I'd say about the same with a shorter window

3 ot 5 years followed by a final couple of seasons similar to the end of Iggys time.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by midniteowl

Hindsight, it's now pretty clear what they were playing for last season, personal stats. It was a fun regular season, watching our stars racking points. Then when the playoff rolled around, it's same old, same old.

I don't really know that our stars have felt they were in it to win a championship in the last decade. They had some surprise seasons and seemed kind of surprised by their own success and happy to be in it with a shot to surprise further. This year though, I'm pretty sure everyone knows that a deep run and going for a championship is what it's about and why they're there.

[Jay Random]

I don't think the stars were playing for personal stats last season. It's just that personal stats were easy to come by. It was a strange year, and scoring was higher than it's been since the mid-1990s. It will probably regress.

I don't expect anyone to repeat last year's numbers. I wouldn't be wildly surprised if Huberdeau finished second in points again, but with something like 100 instead of 115.

[dammage79]

There was always going to be a contract year bump in effort. They milked it for all it was worth. And I'm not judging them. I'd have done the same thing. I'd wager neither Gaudreau or Tckachuk come close to their effort last season.

Chucky maybe comes close to matching. Only because the Panthers are a jacked squad.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

Sure, but at the same time both Gaudreau and Tkachuk outperformed their prior averages as well. If we're looking at just last year then they produced pretty much identically. If we look back further, it actually favours Huberdeau + Kadri more often than not.


Looking at total points per game each season (Huberdeau + Kadri first, Gaudreau + Tkachuk second)

2022: 1.34 = 1.34
2021: 0.84 > 0.77
2020: 0.95 > 0.88
2019: 0.88 < 0.96
2018: 0.77 > 0.72


Gaudreau + Tkachuk have only outproduced Huberdeau + Kadri once in the last 5 years. Kadri's the weakest offensive player of the four, no question, but if we're factoring in Kadri's history as a 50 point 2C then we also have to factor in the clear gap between Huberdeau and the other two. Huberdeau's been at a 90+ point pace for four straight years with a career year at 115, while Gaudreau's closer to 80 and Tkachuk's closer to 70.


Really it all comes down to Tkachuk. Is he going to be a 90+ point superstar to go along with excellent possession metrics, or is he going to revert back to the 65-75 point range he's been at the prior three years? I expect Gaudreau and Huberdeau to both in the 80-100 point range (slight edge to Huberdeau), and Kadri to be in the 55 point range. But my point is that if they're even offensively in the same ballpark, this is a stronger team because of everything else they bring to the table.

Out of thanks, but well argued.

For the record, I'm quite alright with the swap, in a vacuum. I just think it's really short term thinking.

I don't hate it, but Treliving is once again betting a lot on a pretty small chance of success. Understandable given the situation, but I don't love it either.

[Kasi]

Why are we talking about point differences? As long as we don’t lose so much production to tank our offence we need to acknowledge Gaudreaus and Tkachuk short comings. They can absolutely dominate less skilled players but every time they came up against players as skilled but with more size and speed they struggled. Our neighbors up north being a big example but also Colorado and Tampa’s forward groups or even Vegas’ top line.

You just really can’t put that line up against McDavid and that just automatically disqualifies them. Not saying Huberdeau is a great defensive player but just like Johnny his defensive numbers will thrive in Sutters control style. Kadri is a legit strong all around center who will match those players much more than Lindholm dragging those two around defensively.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Why are we talking about point differences? As long as we don’t lose so much production to tank our offence we need to acknowledge Gaudreaus and Tkachuk short comings. They can absolutely dominate less skilled players but every time they came up against players as skilled but with more size and speed they struggled. Our neighbors up north being a big example but also Colorado and Tampa’s forward groups or even Vegas’ top line.

You just really can’t put that line up against McDavid and that just automatically disqualifies them. Not saying Huberdeau is a great defensive player but just like Johnny his defensive numbers will thrive in Sutters control style. Kadri is a legit strong all around center who will match those players much more than Lindholm dragging those two around defensively.

I feel a lot more confident this year that we can pretty much throw out any of the top 3 lines and they can match up pretty well against the wonder twins up north.

[Wolven]

What an exciting offseason.

On paper, and without much consideration for positions, I think this team is very similar to last year. However, when you start to dig into the positions that got stronger versus the ones that got weaker we start to see a team that is better. Significantly better when you consider Sutter hockey.

• G is unchanged but benefits greatly from the next two line items.
• D is an upgrade. We arguably have 6 D that could be labeled "top 4" (and 4 D that I think can safely play top pairing minutes and matchups).
• C is an upgrade. The top 9 can be built around these C as they can all contribute at both ends of the rink.
• W is a downgrade. Which isn't the end of the world when you consider the rest.

The biggest opportunity for this team is giving existing players bigger roles.

• Toffoli on the top line could be the biggest win from the existing roster. If Huberdeau can prop up Bennett and Duclair to look like second line players (and help both have career scoring years at the same time) then Huberdeau and Lindholm should be able to elevate Toffoli out of the doghouse and into a serviceable top line RW.
• Kadri on the second line is a playmaker upgrade for Mangiapane and Coleman. Should help Mangiapane maintain or build on last year's offensive numbers and keep this line as strong defensively as last year.
• Backlund on the third line is a big upgrade. His proven ability to improve his linemates should help Dube to level up. If Dube follows in Mangiapane's foot steps then the Backlund-Dube 3rd line would be a huge success. Also, if Pelletier earns a spot on the team then we know Backlund can shelter Pelletier under his wing.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by Wolven

What an exciting offseason.

On paper, and without much consideration for positions, I think this team is very similar to last year. However, when you start to dig into the positions that got stronger versus the ones that got weaker we start to see a team that is better. Significantly better when you consider Sutter hockey.

• G is unchanged but benefits greatly from the next two line items.
• D is an upgrade. We arguably have 6 D that could be labeled "top 4" (and 4 D that I think can safely play top pairing minutes and matchups).
• C is an upgrade. The top 9 can be built around these C as they can all contribute at both ends of the rink.
• W is a downgrade. Which isn't the end of the world when you consider the rest.

The biggest opportunity for this team is giving existing players bigger roles.

• Toffoli on the top line could be the biggest win from the existing roster. If Huberdeau can prop up Bennett and Duclair to look like second line players (and help both have career scoring years at the same time) then Huberdeau and Lindholm should be able to elevate Toffoli out of the doghouse and into a serviceable top line RW.
• Kadri on the second line is a playmaker upgrade for Mangiapane and Coleman. Should help Mangiapane maintain or build on last year's offensive numbers and keep this line as strong defensively as last year.
• Backlund on the third line is a big upgrade. His proven ability to improve his linemates should help Dube to level up. If Dube follows in Mangiapane's foot steps then the Backlund-Dube 3rd line would be a huge success. Also, if Pelletier earns a spot on the team then we know Backlund can shelter Pelletier under his wing.

This alone has me excited about the up coming season.

[Enoch Root]

Always dangerous to use one year's points in comparisons - I prefer using the last 3 (when possible).

Huberdeau + Kadri + Weegar = 507 pts
Gaudreau + Tkachuk + Gudbranson = 460 pts

I just don't think the argument that they are weaker offensively holds much water.

[Enoch Root]

The other argument, which i don't think has come up yet, is that the primary complaint last year was that they were a one-line team. I think it was over-stated, but there was some merit to it.

This year, we are likely to see Huberdeau-Lindholm on line 1, and Kadri-Mangiapane on line 2. The top line will probably be a little weaker, but the 2nd line will be better, and now Backlund-Coleman are the 3rd line.

IMO, there is no question that this team is better offensively than last year (obviously, just on paper to this point)

[midniteowl]

The offense is more spread out as well. Teams gonna have to choose which line they need to shut down.

[Macho0978]

Kadri also got a bump in opprtunity as well. In Colorado last year he averaged almost 4 mins a game on the PP. Typically he got between 2 and 2:30 in Toronto. He also typically average 16-17 mins ice a game, Got just over 19 mins a game last year.

Kadri had some big years playing with Lupul and Kessel a few years back.

If you let him play on the PP and give him 19 mins a game I can see him sticking to a 60-70 point player than the 50 point guy he was in the past

Maybe 90 won't happen but a physical, 2 way center getting 60 to 70 points is worth more than $7 mil a year. His age is the risk not his play

In NHL history has anyone ever got 100 points playing less than 50% of a teams PP time and getting 16 mins a game? McDavid wouldn't get 100 cutting his ice time by 5 mins a game and 2 a game on the PP.

[SaskyFlamesFan]

They should get more offence from the defence too. The 3rd pair last year was kind of a black hole last year for offence. This year you probably have Kylington there which should give it some more pop. This team is really built for Sutter. He loves having deep D and deep C’s. I think there will be a lot of moving up and down the lineup all year for the RW’s, depends who is going. While the top two LW/C pairings will be fairly static. If they go Mangiapane and Kadri that line is going to be annoying to play against.

I think they’ll be better because they are more spread out and deeper on D. Which is exactly what Sutter needs to maximize everything.

This year is going to be fun and I am going to enjoy every second of it.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Itse

Out of thanks, but well argued.

For the record, I'm quite alright with the swap, in a vacuum. I just think it's really short term thinking.

I don't hate it, but Treliving is once again betting a lot on a pretty small chance of success. Understandable given the situation, but I don't love it either.

I feel kind of the same way you do - especially with the term on those 2 big contracts.

But I try to remind myself that the Flames still have all their own first round picks, a couple of decent prospects coming up, and a lot of contracts coming off the books in the next couple of years too. They could go all in for 3 years which they've done - and when their stars turn into pumpkins have a decent infusion of cheap young talent ready to plug in and start the rebuild on the fly.

In the end - as another poster noted you could be hit by a bus 2 years from now. Better to see the team go for a cup in the time you have left.

[djsFlames]

The "projected" third pairing seems a bit suspect defensively, given how much Tanev helped Kylington in the stay at home department, and you could argue Gud did for Zadorov at times. My only concern on the back end. But love, love, love the top 4.

It's pie in the sky fantasy good.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Quality of wingers is going to have an impact on Kadri’s game and production. He will not be surrounded by the same level of talent he had in Colorado. Will be interesting to see how the chemistry develops in the lineup as Sutter develops his combinations.

[Zoller]

I imagine they have the potential to perform better in the playoffs with these players.

But the regular season the Flames just had will be hard to replicate.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

The "projected" third pairing seems a bit suspect defensively, given how much Tanev helped Kylington in the stay at home department, and you could argue Gud did for Zadorov at times. My only concern on the back end. But love, love, love the top 4.

It's pie in the sky fantasy good.

Zadarov > Gudbranson. Always.

Hanifin - Andersson
Zadarov - Weegar
Kylington - Tanev

That’s how I’d draw it up today. Three pairs that just get rolled and are all very strong. The key guys gain extra minutes on special teams.