Buy?/Sell?/All-in?/Tank? What should the Flames do?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

People still frequently mention how mistiming the Kipper and Iggy trades plus not getting enough of a return crippled this franchise and set them back for a decade.

Now we have a chance to avoid history repeating itself and people want to mortgage our already not great looking future.

Doing nothing is ballsy but could payoff if we have a deep run and re-sign both guys. Trading away picks/prospects, losing in the first/second round and letting Johnny/Chucky walk is completely suicidal and will cripple this franchise for another decade.

Where did the burn it down and rebuild crowd disappear to? Surely they haven’t just abandoned CP. More likely all it shows is that most people have hilariously short memories. Team losing, tear it down and rebuild. Team winning, go all in trade the future for a shot.

The Flames never traded Kipper. Did you mean Reg? Or keeping Kipper until he retired instead of moving him a couple years earlier?

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

People still frequently mention how mistiming the Kipper and Iggy trades plus not getting enough of a return crippled this franchise and set them back for a decade.

Now we have a chance to avoid history repeating itself and people want to mortgage our already not great looking future.

Doing nothing is ballsy but could payoff if we have a deep run and re-sign both guys. Trading away picks/prospects, losing in the first/second round and letting Johnny/Chucky walk is completely suicidal and will cripple this franchise for another decade.

Where did the burn it down and rebuild crowd disappear to? Surely they haven’t just abandoned CP. More likely all it shows is that most people have hilariously short memories. Team losing, tear it down and rebuild. Team winning, go all in trade the future for a shot.

I can be 'burn it to the ground' and 'all in this year' at the same time.

I don't think any of our prospects are anything special, including Coronato. There is nobody in the system who has 'future franchise player' written on them.

I don't think Gaudreau is going to re-sign, and I think Tkachuk wants to go somewhere else at the earliest opportunity. I don't see any point in trying to hold onto Lindholm and build around him, because he's not that guy.

But in the here and now, all three are crushing it as the best line in hockey. We have a championship coach and have allowed the fewest goals in the league at the All Star Break.

So give this group their shot. Spend the 1st, spend the 2nd, spend one of the bottom-10 1st round picks and bring in players who might be able to move the needle in the post-season and win them a round or three.

And if that's not enough to convince both Johnny and Tkachuk to extend by the draft, the decision has been made for you.

Sell Lindholm, sell Tkachuk - they should be worth four premium assets at least.

Most importantly, don't delude yourself into thinking your rebuild is done after 24 months.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The Flames never traded Kipper. Did you mean Reg? Or keeping Kipper until he retired instead of moving him a couple years earlier?

Yeah my bad. I meant both of the above actually. In Kipper’s case it was a lack of trade that I was referring to.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I can be 'burn it to the ground' and 'all in this year' at the same time.

But in the here and now, all three are crushing it as the best line in hockey. We have a championship coach and have allowed the fewest goals in the league at the All Star Break.

So give this group their shot. Spend the 1st, spend the 2nd, spend one of the bottom-10 1st round picks and bring in players who might be able to move the needle in the post-season and win them a round or three.

And if that's not enough to convince both Johnny and Tkachuk to extend by the draft, the decision has been made for you.

Sell Lindholm, sell Tkachuk - they should be worth four premium assets at least.

Most importantly, don't delude yourself into thinking your rebuild is done after 24 months.

So you're fine with sucking for a decade (or perhaps longer) in exchange for one deep playoff run? I'm certainly not. What I'd rather see is this team become a perrenial contender, kind of like the run Detroit had from the mid 90s to the early 2010s. Or like the Bruins really since the late 60s. You don't become that by impulsively throwing away all your assets every time you think you have a shot at a Stanley Cup. You scout, draft, develop, and have patience. There are no shortcuts to success in this league.

I don't think any of our prospects are anything special, including Coronato. There is nobody in the system who has 'future franchise player' written on them.

I don't think Gaudreau is going to re-sign, and I think Tkachuk wants to go somewhere else at the earliest opportunity. I don't see any point in trying to hold onto Lindholm and build around him, because he's not that guy.

This is all speculation on your part. You're pretending that you have a crystal ball and know exactly how everything will unfold. Reality is, no one knows for sure how prospects will pan out or whether this team's free agents will sign here long term.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I don't think any of our prospects are anything special, including Coronato. There is nobody in the system who has 'future franchise player' written on them.

Nobody's system has a player like that. Any player of that calibre is generally playing in the league as soon as he's drafted.

Anyway, good organizations don't wait for a franchise player to come along and bail them out. They build with depth and quality the best they can.

[TheChief]

Not a soul has mentioned him (besides myself) but go and get Jared McCann, and do it now. He is a RFA next year and plays Center. All these other names being bandied about are pipe dreams but if we know Brad and his ""process"" he likes trading for players he has some sort of "control" over.



As far as the topic goes...My head says sell but my heart says go all in (like Columbus did a few years ago)...with hopefully a little more success. Sutter is not here to turn prospects into pros....He is here to win, and he only really has this year to basically do it.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

So you're fine with sucking for a decade (or perhaps longer) in exchange for one deep playoff run? I'm certainly not. What I'd rather see is this team become a perrenial contender, kind of like the run Detroit had from the mid 90s to the early 2010s. Or like the Bruins really since the late 60s. You don't become that by impulsively throwing away all your assets every time you think you have a shot at a Stanley Cup. You scout, draft, develop, and have patience. There are no shortcuts to success in this league.

That isn’t what I said at all.

The 1st this year is going to be between 20-32. It doesn’t matter more than getting this core the ammo they need to a legitimate run. They’re the best defensive team in the league with the best line in the game.

Unfortunately, the best player on the team is a UFA in 5 months, the second best player has structured his contract in such a manner that he reaches UFA at the earliest point allowable by the CBA, and the third best player on the line was a 40-point player until he got to play with Gaudreau.

They aren’t going to suck for a decade because they go for it this year. They’ll suck for a decade if they lose Gaudreau for nothing, lose Tkachuk for nothing, and lose Lindholm for nothing.

Which would be par for the course for a team that has lost Giordano for nothing, Brodie for nothing, and punted Bennett for Ruslan Zainullin 2.0.

Wright and Bedard are available over the next few years. It’s a good time to suck.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Nobody's system has a player like that. Any player of that calibre is generally playing in the league as soon as he's drafted.

Anyway, good organizations don't wait for a franchise player to come along and bail them out. They build with depth and quality the best they can.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have literally done this twice, both times ending up with two of the three best players on the planet, and have 5 cups to show for it since 1992.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

That isn’t what I said at all.

The 1st this year is going to be between 20-32. It doesn’t matter more than getting this core the ammo they need to a legitimate run. They’re the best defensive team in the league with the best line in the game.

You're speculating again. You don't know who that player will be or how good he will become. You also don't know how much farther this team will get in this year's playoffs with 3-4 dealine pickups vs 1 deadline pickup. It's all speculation.

Unfortunately, the best player on the team is a UFA in 5 months, the second best player has structured his contract in such a manner that he reaches UFA at the earliest point allowable by the CBA, and the third best player on the line was a 40-point player until he got to play with Gaudreau.

They aren’t going to suck for a decade because they go for it this year. They’ll suck for a decade if they lose Gaudreau for nothing, lose Tkachuk for nothing, and lose Lindholm for nothing.

Which would be par for the course for a team that has lost Giordano for nothing, Brodie for nothing, and punted Bennett for Ruslan Zainullin 2.0.

Well Bennett never reached his current levels of production until he was put on Florida's top line. So I don't really get your urge to deride Lindy while refusing to apply the same standard to Bennett. But anyway, I digress...

There are tough times ahead if Johnny, Chucky, etc don't re-sign. That much is obvious. The focus then should be on taking an organizational approach that maximizes the chance that they re-sign. It would seem that the wrong approach would be to strip the cupboard bare and set up this team for a decade of suckage.

Wright and Bedard are available over the next few years. It’s a good time to suck.

It's never a good time to suck.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

People still frequently mention how mistiming the Kipper and Iggy trades plus not getting enough of a return crippled this franchise and set them back for a decade.

Now we have a chance to avoid history repeating itself and people want to mortgage our already not great looking future.

Doing nothing is ballsy but could payoff if we have a deep run and re-sign both guys. Trading away picks/prospects, losing in the first/second round and letting Johnny/Chucky walk is completely suicidal and will cripple this franchise for another decade.

Where did the burn it down and rebuild crowd disappear to? Surely they haven’t just abandoned CP. More likely all it shows is that most people have hilariously short memories. Team losing, tear it down and rebuild. Team winning, go all in trade the future for a shot.

The chance to trade Gaudreau passed.

Not much benefit trying to trade Tkachuk now vs. off-season.

There aren't really any other assets to sell this TDL. If things fall of the rails there are tons of assets to sell in '23 an '24 to properly kickoff a rebuild.


The realistic hope is that a few guys like Zary/Pelletier/Coronato/etc. pan out like Backlund and Brodie did as the forerunners to our present core.

Originally Posted by Mathgod

So you're fine with sucking for a decade (or perhaps longer) in exchange for one deep playoff run? I'm certainly not. What I'd rather see is this team become a perrenial contender, kind of like the run Detroit had from the mid 90s to the early 2010s. Or like the Bruins really since the late 60s. You don't become that by impulsively throwing away all your assets every time you think you have a shot at a Stanley Cup. You scout, draft, develop, and have patience. There are no shortcuts to success in this league.

The path to sustainable success was already pissed away from 2017-19 drafts. There were opportunities to mitigate that and retool around a bunch of 22-25 year olds, but instead we've continued to double down on shortcuts and almost everyone is 25+ now.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The Pittsburgh Penguins have literally done this twice, both times ending up with two of the three best players on the planet, and have 5 cups to show for it since 1992.

Sounds like you're talking about something different. If you're already bad enough to miss the playoffs by a substantial amount (like the 80s Pengins), you're clearly not a contender anytime soon, and might as well strip it down to the studs and chase a generational talent in the draft. That kind of thing has worked for Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington, etc, so yes that kind of approach can potentially work. Then again, there are cases like Edmonton and Buffalo that have been drafting high for an eternity yet still suck. So there are no guarantees.

However, this is not the kind of situation the Flames are in. The Flames have a legit team and in a position to contend this season. Adding a top 6 forward to improve the offense makes sense. What doesn't make sense is gutting the team's futures just to bring in a bunch of extra players and potentially mess with the chemistry in that locker room.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The Pittsburgh Penguins have literally done this twice, both times ending up with two of the three best players on the planet, and have 5 cups to show for it since 1992.

The Edmonton Oilers have literally done this four times, and have nothing to show for it.

Far more teams have failed than succeeded with that approach. You need to stop fixating on the pattern you want to see.

[Roof-Daddy]

The time to blow it up isn't in the midst of the franchises best season since the rebuild began almost a decade ago.

lol

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

However, this is not the kind of situation the Flames are in. The Flames have a legit team and in a position to contend this season. Adding a top 6 forward to improve the offense makes sense. What doesn't make sense is gutting the team's futures just to bring in a bunch of extra players and potentially mess with the chemistry in that locker room.

The team has already done this to such an extent that anything not named Zary, Wolf, or '23 and beyond draft picks are very likely irrelevant to the next phase of this team (ie. beyond the current core running its course).

Obviously we're not trading EVERYBODY, as the cap makes that impossible.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The time to blow it up isn't in the midst of the franchises best season since the rebuild began almost a decade ago.

lol

Oh yeah? Well, how many playoff rounds have we won this year so far? NONE! Blow it up!

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

The team has already done this to such an extent that anything not named Zary, Wolf, or '23 and beyond draft picks are very likely irrelevant to the next phase of this team (ie. beyond the current core running its course).

Obviously we're not trading EVERYBODY, as the cap makes that impossible.

So what's the best way to respond to all this? Should the team simply repeat the mistakes of its past? Or learn from them?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I can be 'burn it to the ground' and 'all in this year' at the same time.

I don't think any of our prospects are anything special, including Coronato. There is nobody in the system who has 'future franchise player' written on them.

I don't think Gaudreau is going to re-sign, and I think Tkachuk wants to go somewhere else at the earliest opportunity. I don't see any point in trying to hold onto Lindholm and build around him, because he's not that guy.

But in the here and now, all three are crushing it as the best line in hockey. We have a championship coach and have allowed the fewest goals in the league at the All Star Break.

So give this group their shot. Spend the 1st, spend the 2nd, spend one of the bottom-10 1st round picks and bring in players who might be able to move the needle in the post-season and win them a round or three.

And if that's not enough to convince both Johnny and Tkachuk to extend by the draft, the decision has been made for you.

Sell Lindholm, sell Tkachuk - they should be worth four premium assets at least.

Most importantly, don't delude yourself into thinking your rebuild is done after 24 months.

I’d agree the only one counter I would make is you never know what a player can do with the kind of icetime a guy like Gaudreau or Tkachuk get. I bet most people would be surprised at the TRUE difference between most of these NHL players and reality is some of them get way way way way way more opportunities than others.

Kyrou just showed the world he’s faster than McDavid. Does Sportsnet spend years blowing their load over Kyrou?

The difference between most NHL players is honestly very negligible. Gaudreau or whoever moves on- there will be a new star. No question. That’s why you gotta cheer for the Flaming C. Not some player.

[driveway]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

People still frequently mention how mistiming the Kipper and Iggy trades plus not getting enough of a return crippled this franchise and set them back for a decade.

Now we have a chance to avoid history repeating itself and people want to mortgage our already not great looking future.

Doing nothing is ballsy but could payoff if we have a deep run and re-sign both guys. Trading away picks/prospects, losing in the first/second round and letting Johnny/Chucky walk is completely suicidal and will cripple this franchise for another decade.

Where did the burn it down and rebuild crowd disappear to? Surely they haven’t just abandoned CP. More likely all it shows is that most people have hilariously short memories. Team losing, tear it down and rebuild. Team winning, go all in trade the future for a shot.

If I felt like our winning was all smoke and mirrors I would definitely be in the tear it down, trade now camp. I was, fully, until about a month and a half ago.

We're a very, very good hockey club this year. If you look at the metrics, we're absolutely one of the best:

Moneypuck has us 1st in their Power Rankings, 1st in xGoals%, 2nd in Corsi, 1st in Fenwick, 1st in xGoal Dif/60, 3rd in High Danger Shots against.



When it comes to lines Tkachuck-Lindholm-Gaudreau is the 5th best line in the league in xGoals%, Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman is the 8th best. On the defensive side, Kylington-Tanev are the 6th best D pairing, Zadorov-Gudbranson are 14th and Hanifin-Anderson are 20th.

Looking at NaturalStatTrick they have us 2nd in Corsi and Fenwick, 2nd in xGF %, 1st in Scoring Chances%, 2nd in High-Danger Chances %.

There is nothing smoke-and-mirrors about this, and the eye test really backs it up. We're almost never really beaten, we get outgoalied from time to time, but most games, most periods we just take it to the other team for long stretches. We're really, really good. The kind of good where we absolutely should go for it.

To Calgary: Giroux
To Philly: Monahan, 2023 1st (top 2 protected), 2022 2nd.

[CliffFletcher]

I like Giroux as a target. But the Flyers are trying to shed bad contracts, not acquire more. They would have zero interest in Monahan.

Monahan is not an asset in any trade deadline deal. The Flames will have to pay a team like Arizona to take him off their hands in a separate deal, and that type of move likely happens in the offseason.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by driveway

If I felt like our winning was all smoke and mirrors I would definitely be in the tear it down, trade now camp. I was, fully, until about a month and a half ago.

We're a very, very good hockey club this year. If you look at the metrics, we're absolutely one of the best:

Moneypuck has us 1st in their Power Rankings, 1st in xGoals%, 2nd in Corsi, 1st in Fenwick, 1st in xGoal Dif/60, 3rd in High Danger Shots against.



When it comes to lines Tkachuck-Lindholm-Gaudreau is the 5th best line in the league in xGoals%, Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman is the 8th best. On the defensive side, Kylington-Tanev are the 6th best D pairing, Zadorov-Gudbranson are 14th and Hanifin-Anderson are 20th.

Looking at NaturalStatTrick they have us 2nd in Corsi and Fenwick, 2nd in xGF %, 1st in Scoring Chances%, 2nd in High-Danger Chances %.

There is nothing smoke-and-mirrors about this, and the eye test really backs it up. We're almost never really beaten, we get outgoalied from time to time, but most games, most periods we just take it to the other team for long stretches. We're really, really good. The kind of good where we absolutely should go for it.

To Calgary: Giroux
To Philly: Monahan, 2023 1st (top 2 protected), 2022 2nd.

That trade would only make sense to Philly if Monny was on an expiring deal. You would need to subtract him for that deal to have a chance.