To be fair, Kerins needs to work on his skating for the next level. It's not bad, but he needs another gear or two. Mangipane was in the same boat coming out of junior, but I would say Kerins is faster. I wouldn't bet on Kerins overtaking Coronato-let's not forget that Kerins is putting up these numbers in his D+2 year, while MC is almost a ppg in his first year of college, which is a pretty impressive feat. Gaudreau was a ppg in his first year at Boston College.
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Do you secretly work for the Oilers in player development and can’t help repping the same narrative with all prospects?
Of course he has warts as a player. He didn’t make the team out of camp. So let’s evaluate and focus on all of his flaws or potential flaws. Let’s not focus on what he’s good at. Let’s all be Brian Sutter and see if Martin St. Louis can be a grinder on the 4th line.
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Smart teams:
Leverage a player’s Signature Skills (high frequency, high success) to build confidence (player to self) & trust (player to coach)
Expand a player’s comfort zone by uncovering underutilised assets (low frequency, high sucess actions)
Use the developmental momentum to Address a player’s high-frequency weaknesses
Aggressively Ignore a player’s low-frequency weaknesses (like DZ coverage for a winger) and chalk it up as a cost of doing business with that uniquely talented player
Dumb teams:
Fixate on weaknesses at the expense of leveraging strengths
Spend valuable time & energy attempting to influence low-frequency, low-value skills
Double down on poor process by accusing the player of being uncooperative
Strip down the player’s unique identity, then sell him/her at a discount
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This is why you can't evaluate talent using a spreadsheet. Kerins' scoring is awesome, but what about his play? What about his skills? Will they translate? Does he have NHL speed? Does he have an NHL shot, or are pro goaltenders going to stop more of his shots? Does he think the game well (I've read this is his strength)? Can he play defense or display any defensive awareness? Does he have the work ethic of a pro? Does he have the mental toughness to be a pro? All of those things don't show up in a spreadsheet and more often determine whether a guy is going to be a good pro. NHLe is a poor tool to determine if a player is going to make the jump and be an NHL player. Beware the false security that junior scoring exploits provides. Rob Schremp lurks behind every junior scoring champ, waiting to poke holes in expectations.
I'm excited to see Keirns continued development and see whether his skills translate to the next level. Zavgorodniy is an example of a recent junior scorer whose game just didn't translate to pro. Immediately I would still question whether Keirns' skating and shot are NHL level. He's a very opportunistic scorer so those things may not automatically translate. But I've read many glowing reports on his ability to think the game, his work ethic, and his desire, which are all positives. Keirns seems like a guy that might be sent back for an overage season before he plays pro, so I don't think we'll know what we have for another two years.
Funny, the most positive things scouts liked about Kerins pre-draft was his shot, vision and instincts. the only negatives were foot speed and needed to put on weight.
He worked hard over the summer to put on about 15 lbs so I assume his leg strength is better for his foot speed and as you can see his shot is no muffin.
Do you secretly work for the Oilers in player development and can’t help repping the same narrative with all prospects?
Of course he has warts as a player. He didn’t make the team out of camp. So let’s evaluate and focus on all of his flaws or potential flaws. Let’s not focus on what he’s good at. Let’s all be Brian Sutter and see if Martin St. Louis can be a grinder on the 4th line.
That article is actually quite funny. That article IS the Oilers' development plan. They let their prospects continue to play the game they want to, somehow believing that the other parts of their game will magically come around. How many prospects have the Oilers drafted and then did nothing to improve their game? Imagine of Rob Schremp could have learned how to skate? Oh wait, I forgot, skating is the easiest thing to teach a player and the easiest thing to improve upon. Better tell all those minor leaguers that the one thing that probably held them back the most was the one thing - the easiest thing - they could have learned. Imagine if any of their prospects could have learned to play defense? Or improved on any of the holes in their games? This is an organization that has been desperate for talent for the better part of 30 years, yet they always seem to fail at drafting and developing players. Could it be that they follow Han's brilliant approach to development? Yeah, looks that way.
The funny thing is it even extends to their NHL players and team. Don't worry about teaching McDoofus or German Gretzky a thing about playing on the defensive side of the puck, just let them be a net even for goals scored and goals against. That's how you win hockey games! Or maybe it isn't. Maybe that's why Scotty Bowman made Steve Yzerman make a commitment to playing both sides of the puck and turned him into a champion?
I learned something coming up through the minors in another sport. You are only as good as your weakest skill, and your weakest skill will keep you from progressing and keep you out of the show. If you are not willing to understand your weaknesses and learn to improve them to even an average level, your best skills will never be able to shine. I learned, too late, that it is important to identify these gaps and then work on them harder than any other skill you possess, as they are the ones that will help you the most and show your coaches you want to improve and be the best player possible. If you don't do that, other players will pass you buy and steal your opportunity.
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Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus
Funny, the most positive things scouts liked about Kerins pre-draft was his shot, vision and instincts. the only negatives were foot speed and needed to put on weight.
His instincts are good. He has a nose for the net and knows how to use his teammates. Not overly enamored with his shot. His release isn't exactly quick and his velocity isn't high. What it is, is accurate and finds holes. Is that enough to get him to the NHL?
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He worked hard over the summer to put on about 15 lbs so I assume his leg strength is better for his foot speed and as you can see his shot is no muffin.
The criticism doesn't mean I don't like the kid or don't think he could be something someday. It just means I observe things I think he needs to work on and that have potential to hold him back. I'm not going to look at his stats line and proclaim him to be one of the Flames' best prospects, because the same weaknesses still exist in his game. Junior hockey is like Whose Line Is It Anyway. The points don't matter. At a time when the NHL demands so many things from players, especially foot speed and defensive awareness, player weaknesses need to be considered as much as their strengths, as it is the weaknesses that hold them back.
Again, not impressed with his shot. I would say it is more muffin than it is cannon. I see too many shots the goaltender overplays or let's get through him. I never like seeing goals where the goaltender is hanging his head because he knew he should have had that one. I see a lot of those with Keirns and I'm not sure those are going to find their way into the net against professionals at the next level. I again repeat that his shot is accurate and he loves that low shot just inside the post. That is a great shot to have in the bag and can lead to a lot of success. Will it translate to the next level or will he suffer Zavgorodniy syndrome?
Again, Keirns is not a bad player. I like a lot of what I see. If I were to pick a player that Keirns reminds me of, Luc Robitaille immediately comes to mind. Lucky Luc was not the greatest skater, did not have a cannonading shot, nor was he the best two-way player. But he was smart, he worked hard, and he had a knack for putting the puck in the net. His shot was accurate and he found more net than he did goaltenders. The difference I see is Robitaille had a great release, but that release took time to work on. Robitaille's work ethic was legendary and he worked endlessly to improve his shot and release to keep his edge.
Robitaille was a 9th round pick back when there were 12 rounds to the draft. So drafted in a similar position to Keirns. Luc was a bit more prolific in his scoring and played in the no defense era, so different expectations obviously. Different time and different expectations on what gets a player to the NHL, but an interesting contrast. I think there is definitely room in the Flames system for Keirns and he's got a skill that the Flames desperately need. The big question is will that one skill be enough to crack a lineup where the demands are so high? A player is the sum of their parts, and does the strength overshadow the weakness? That is the approach I take when I look at players and evaluate their potential.
Because there is a difference between beating junior goaltenders and professionals. I don't know how many times people need it explained to them, but the jump between leagues is substantial. You are going from a league where you were "the best", to the next league where EVRYONE was the best from the previous level. What might have worked at one level may not work at the next. See Zavgorodniy as an example. A highly skilled junior player that scored with a high degree of regularity. 1 goal in 45 professional games across two leagues. Sometimes skills just don't translate. There's a reason why players get drafted late like this, and its usually because there is a belief skills may not translate.
As to skills, Keirns shot has never really impressed me. He's opportunistic and the pucks find their way in, but it isn't like he has a wicked release or a shot that overpowers a goaltender. He's accurate, especially picking the low corners, but he doesn't possess what you would call a sniper's rifle for shot. How many of those shots do you think the goaltenders wanted back? Will that ability to find holes continue at the next level? Here's his goal scoring highlights. You tell me you see an NHL shot?
Counting points is not a great way to judge junior players. Robbie Schremp should remind everyone that junior scoring exploits don't amount to much. Look at skills and whether those skills are at an elite level and will translate to the NHL.
Z played with Lafreniere for two years, so there's a huge difference right there.
But honestly I don't hold my breath on OHL scoring stats either. Bader's model is solid for what it does, it compares players by their age group in production at various leagues, but doesn't predict a pop that is needed to make it to the next level.
No point in crapping all over the prospect though. He's a 6th round pick that is emerging. That's found money.
Hopefully he continues to progress and make everyone take him seriously.
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Kerins isn't exactly a standout in any skill area but putting up 30g and nearly a PPG as a 17 year old is a big deal.
The fact that his work ethic and motor are 2 of his biggest attributes tells me he can probably make it as a pro provided he improves his skating enough to hang with the pros.
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Again, not impressed with his shot. I would say it is more muffin than it is cannon.
You should stick to your alien conspiracy's, again, scouts love his shot, wrist shot, one timer and how quick he gets it off, I'll trust their word over someone who has never seen him live.
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Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald
I never like seeing goals where the goaltender is hanging his head because he knew he should have had that one.
Yeah, like that never happens in the NHL
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I can only speak for Francis but his determination and work ethic will help him succeed at the next level. He is going to take a bit longer than others but he has everything you would want in a solid prospect.
I feel like over the past 3-4 years, the Flames often have their draft picks perform at really high levels in their respective development leagues, sometimes in the top 10 scoring races. These players are often drafted in later rounds too. That's what my memory tells me at least.
I feel like over the past 3-4 years, the Flames often have their draft picks perform at really high levels in their respective development leagues, sometimes in the top 10 scoring races. These players are often drafted in later rounds too. That's what my memory tells me at least.
They are picking for skill. Which is important. Skilled guys with warts in their games that can be fixed. The way it is set up you could lose a Mangiapane and replace him with a Phillips (perhaps) and then have a Kerins/Francis slide into the AHL and produce for a few years and come up and replace.
One of the things that is exciting about the new technology coming out is we'll have numbers to back up all these comments about "release", and shot strength.
I look at what Trackman/Foresight have done for golf, and am excited for what will be done with tracking players speed/acceleration and the same for their shots.
The other thing that interests me is how much someone like Gaudreau has improved his shot as he's gotten older/stronger. Or if my eyes are lying to me.
I look at what Trackman/Foresight have done for golf, and am excited for what will be done with tracking players speed/acceleration and the same for their shots.
This is why you can't evaluate talent using a spreadsheet. Kerins' scoring is awesome, but what about his play? What about his skills? Will they translate? Does he have NHL speed? Does he have an NHL shot, or are pro goaltenders going to stop more of his shots? Does he think the game well (I've read this is his strength)? Can he play defense or display any defensive awareness? Does he have the work ethic of a pro? Does he have the mental toughness to be a pro? All of those things don't show up in a spreadsheet and more often determine whether a guy is going to be a good pro. NHLe is a poor tool to determine if a player is going to make the jump and be an NHL player. Beware the false security that junior scoring exploits provides. Rob Schremp lurks behind every junior scoring champ, waiting to poke holes in expectations.
I'm excited to see Keirns continued development and see whether his skills translate to the next level. Zavgorodniy is an example of a recent junior scorer whose game just didn't translate to pro. Immediately I would still question whether Keirns' skating and shot are NHL level. He's a very opportunistic scorer so those things may not automatically translate. But I've read many glowing reports on his ability to think the game, his work ethic, and his desire, which are all positives. Keirns seems like a guy that might be sent back for an overage season before he plays pro, so I don't think we'll know what we have for another two years.
Couldn’t all of the attributes you mentioned be put in a spreadsheet?
Kerins isn't exactly a standout in any skill area but putting up 30g and nearly a PPG as a 17 year old is a big deal.
The fact that his work ethic and motor are 2 of his biggest attributes tells me he can probably make it as a pro provided he improves his skating enough to hang with the pros.
Reminds me of when I lived in Kamloops in the 90's and Darcy Tucker never scored well in any of the teams skill competitions. Did not have a hard shot, was not an accurate shooter, or a fast skater. But most of the games he was their best player at that level. He was a 6th round pick who went on to play 947 games and scored 476 points in a very low scoring era. Granted Darcy Tucker always had that element of grit to his game. I don't know Kerins game enough to know if he plays with urine and vinegar like Tucker did, but if a guy can be a top Junior Level player before an overage season, well worth a late draft pick.
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