Question of the year folks..what is wrong with Gaudreau

[flamesfever]

As a long time STH, I put Gaudreau in the same category as Fleury. In the Young Guns Era, when we had a dearth of highly skilled players, one of the main things that kept me continuing to pay for my STs each year was the thrill of watching Fleury. I believe it's having players like this on the roster that is really important. IMO to trade Gaudreau, and not replace him with someone exceptional, would be a significant loss to the organization. Just look at the number of people wearing his sweater to see how important he is.

As for what is affecting his drop off in play, I believe it is complicated, and is probably a combination of factors. First of all, considering his size, the fact that he was a fourth round pick, and that he is playing in a league with men who are significantly larger and tougher than him, it's almost a miracle that he is able to do what he does. I think in order for him to play his best, his overall condition has to be almost perfect. I believe it should not be surprising to see slight changes in his conditioning, players learning to defend against him, and a host of other potential issues that may affect his game.

[Heavy Jack]

I think Johnny has more than earned our patience in letting him find his game again, he’s been worth every price of admission personally and has given this fan base plenty of excitement through the first quarter to third of his career. Last night the passes on the Tkachuk and Monahan goals were vintage Johnny and scoring as a whole has been lighter across the board for this whole team this year. To me it’s so hard to consider selling low on Johnny which is what we would be doing if we trade him now or even at the draft.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Yeah, I am not seeing anything in your quoted info that reasonably helps me think it is inaccurate or fabricated. Hiding info about a cross country trip to see a playoff game?

You are a smart guy, I think you are better at using common sense than that

It’s pretty safe to say we don’t know what happened and only know what GL said and then retracted. Quoting part of his story as a source of truth? Do so at your own peril.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

I think Johnny has more than earned our patience in letting him find his game again, he’s been worth every price of admission personally and has given this fan base plenty of excitement through the first quarter to third of his career. Last night the passes on the Tkachuk and Monahan goals were vintage Johnny and scoring as a whole has been lighter across the board for this whole team this year. To me it’s so hard to consider selling low on Johnny which is what we would be doing if we trade him now or even at the draft.

Even during this very extended stretch of bad play, Gaudreau continues to make passes few players can make. In the blowout loss to the Oilers, that soft “go and get it” pass to Robinson for his goal was a thing of beauty.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It’s pretty safe to say we don’t know what happened and only know what GL said and then retracted. Quoting part of his story as a source of truth? Do so at your own peril.

Dismissing it as some kind of mistake is another level of naivety

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Dismissing it as some kind of mistake is another level of naivety

Less naive than quoting him as a source of truth.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Less naive than quoting him as a source of truth.

Disagree on that

I wouldn’t go shouting this from the rooftops, but play through in your mind which is the more likely option

a) he leaks sensitive information, regrets it in hindsight, then walks it back, or
b) he fabricated it for whatever reason

I mean, come on, man

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Disagree on that

I wouldn’t go shouting this from the rooftops, but play through in your mind which is the more likely option

a) he leaks sensitive information, regrets it in hindsight, then walks it back, or
b) he fabricated it for whatever reason

I mean, come on, man

You can have the W. We all have our hills to die on and the reliability of Georges Laraque and Taylor Hall’s private life aren’t going to be mine.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Disagree on that

I wouldn’t go shouting this from the rooftops, but play through in your mind which is the more likely option

a) he leaks sensitive information, regrets it in hindsight, then walks it back, or
b) he fabricated it for whatever reason

I mean, come on, man

It would be a pretty big secret that everyone else in the world, from staff to friends to reporters, all kept.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It would be a pretty big secret that everyone else in the world, from staff to friends to reporters, all kept.

Most people are generally respectful about sensitive issues

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

You can have the W. We all have our hills to die on and the reliability of Georges Laraque and Taylor Hall’s private life aren’t going to be mine.

There is no W.

Whatever the truth of the matter is, basically the one thing that is demonstrably true is that Laraque is an a-hole

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Most people are generally respectful about sensitive issues

Except Laraque. Either he lied at first or he lied later. It doesn’t seem like he’s a credible source. I figure he caught a rumour, didn’t check, and went with it.

[Philly06Cup]

Dump in v controlled entry data for those interested:

2019


2020



Gaudreau unsurprisingly goes for controlled entry 80% of the time, both this year and last year. Everyone else is dumping the puck in way more often compared to last year. Monahan goes from 55% controlled to 30%; Lindholm goes from 55% to 40%. Success rate and/or opportunity is also dramatically down. Gaudreau goes from one of the best in the league at 26 entries/60min to 21. But, he's still top 2 on our team. The rest of the team is way down.

My conclusions:
It's definitely a team issue. Hockey analytics will tell you that controlled entries are worth expected shots/goals more than dump-ins. We are reverting to a caveman style. Gaudreau is the exception, yet people are quick to hate on him! I believe this to be due to optics. An average player will dump the puck 5 times and the team retrieves the puck say 50% of the time. Gaudreau will control the puck into the zone 5 times, but may give up 2 turnovers. Gaudreau creates more offensive entries, but most viewers only remember his 2 turnovers and swear at their TV and curse Gaudreau for being a turnover-prone puck hog.

Gaudreau is slumping, but so is the rest of the team. Still, Gaudreau is our more skilled player and should be valued as such.


Data taken from Corey Sznajder's tableau page.

[rohara66]

Interesting stuff.


Are the Flames dumping the puck in more this year then last?

[IliketoPuck]

There's a bunch of things going on, but the biggest I've noticed is the pace at which we transition the puck.

We are back to playing a Gulutzan style d to d pass and 5 man unit up the ice, which typically results in a chip in play at the blue line.

Our d rarely, if ever, immediately transition the puck north south. It is always east west, then forward. This allows the opposing team to get structured in the neutral zone, which leads to low controlled entries, low odd man opportunities, and more perimeter shooting (if we actually win the puck back).

Flames need to play on their front foot. Dictate the pace by transitioning the puck immediately north south, and allow your skilled forwards (JG, etc.) to attack the blue line with speed, instead of having to deal with a 5 man unit that is ready to disrupt the play.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Dump in v controlled entry data for those interested:

2019


2020



Gaudreau unsurprisingly goes for controlled entry 80% of the time, both this year and last year. Everyone else is dumping the puck in way more often compared to last year. Monahan goes from 55% controlled to 30%; Lindholm goes from 55% to 40%. Success rate and/or opportunity is also dramatically down. Gaudreau goes from one of the best in the league at 26 entries/60min to 21. But, he's still top 2 on our team. The rest of the team is way down.

My conclusions:
It's definitely a team issue. Hockey analytics will tell you that controlled entries are worth expected shots/goals more than dump-ins. We are reverting to a caveman style. Gaudreau is the exception, yet people are quick to hate on him! I believe this to be due to optics. An average player will dump the puck 5 times and the team retrieves the puck say 50% of the time. Gaudreau will control the puck into the zone 5 times, but may give up 2 turnovers. Gaudreau creates more offensive entries, but most viewers only remember his 2 turnovers and swear at their TV and curse Gaudreau for being a turnover-prone puck hog.

Gaudreau is slumping, but so is the rest of the team. Still, Gaudreau is our more skilled player and should be valued as such.


Data taken from Corey Sznajder's tableau page.

Well done sir. I’ve been trying to say this for years but didn’t have the statistics to back it up or the eloquence. I tip my hat to you.

[ComixZone]

I love that the team’s response to losing in the playoffs is to effectively implement a strategy that actively makes them worse.

I can’t imagine many players are having fun playing garbage hockey that hasn’t led to any improvement at all.

[icecube]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I love that the team’s response to losing in the playoffs is to effectively implement a strategy that actively makes them worse.

I can’t imagine many players are having fun playing garbage hockey that hasn’t lead to any improvement at all.

Exactly. If you hate the system you're playing in and you know it isn't working well you're not gonna give your best effort night to night. It's boring hockey on top of it all.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Well done sir. I’ve been trying to say this for years but didn’t have the statistics to back it up or the eloquence. I tip my hat to you.

Say what for years? The charts compare only two seasons (2019 v. 2020), and show that this year's team is playing demonstrably differently from last year's.

[Mightyfire89]

I imagine what he’s getting at is that he’s been saying for years that controlled entries are superior to dump-ins.