63 Canadians killed after civilian airliner shot down.

[Jordan!]

Originally Posted by transplant99

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/10/middl...hnk/index.html

Yup. Called this..

When there is video evidence of the strike no less. Unreal

[SportsJunky]

Jordan called it!

[Raekwon]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

I honestly don't understand why anyone would think Tehran would fess up. They have no motivation to and control all evidence.

Exactly, headline today "Iran rejects misslle theory, calls on west to show evidence" that we have bulldozed . . .

Here have access to the crash site, we cleaned up nicely before you got here.

CCTV video of crash.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1215004215828865024

[peter12]

Who said they are just at Stage 2?

[CaptainCrunch]

Not much that Canada can do. We have no presence there not the first time they've covered up murdering Canadians.



All of these people in mourning, the government realizes that their mourning is going to turn to anger and demands for action which we can't really provide.



I guess the next step if Iran did bulldoze the site and continues to hold onto the black box is to demand action from the UN (Which won't happen), additional sanctions and a full external investigation.


I do have some sympathy for Trudeau here. He's in a non winning position.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Not much that Canada can do. We have no presence there not the first time they've covered up murdering Canadians.



All of these people in mourning, the government realizes that their mourning is going to turn to anger and demands for action which we can't really provide.



I guess the next step if Iran did bulldoze the site and continues to hold onto the black box is to demand action from the UN (Which won't happen), additional sanctions and a full external investigation.


I do have some sympathy for Trudeau here. He's in a non winning position.

Kind of a consequence of 40 years of Sunny Ways foreign policy to be honest.

[CaptainCrunch]

just reading there is one more thing that Canada can do and that's sanction individuals in their government if they have any assets in Canadian Banks and freeze those assets, and push our allies to do the same.

[Baron von Kriterium]

(1)
I apologize in advance for is a long post; however, I’d like to bring forward some points for your consideration, ladies and gentlemen. I will break up my thoughts into several posts. A few pages ago, I stated that it looks like that plane was hit, or words to that effect and I even asked if there was an itchy trigger finger. I still lean in that general direction but, being cynical, I’m not prepared to accept as fact what US/Western Intelligence “sources” tell me via the media.

Let’s start with TOR M-1, or SA-15, or GAUNTLET or whatever you wish to call it. It is a short range area-defense system. The TOR does not operate as a stand-alone system; therefore, the system/the crews would not have been 'on alert' in the sense people are led to believe. The TOR crews and Battery Commanders do not get to decide anything.

A TOR crew would have zero authority on their own to target anything they thought was a threat within the TOR 15 km surveillance range. That is just not the way it works in an integrated, layered defense of fixed sites. The integrated system consists of long-range BAVAR 373 or S-300. The medium range is covered by BUK. The medium and long range systems are operated at higher levels – Brigade or above. Someone way above the TOR crew's pay grade would have properly identified any threatening target much further away with multiple other radars and handled it appropriately.

Even in an unlikely, hypothetical case, I can't imagine Iran (or any AD forces) clearing a TOR as the sole responder in this scenario, especially for a target 'suddenly appearing' but moving away from Tehran and the airport. What, exactly, would have been the threat to let a point-defense unit to start blasting away?

The air defense systems are operated by IRGC. The TOR isn’t operated by some schlub conscripts who show up for their night shift a few days a month. Thus, the operators are well aware of the flights coming in/out of Tehran. This flight wasn't the only air traffic at the time was it?

EDIT:

"There were 10 departures from Tehran-IKA from midnight local time 8 Jan through the departure of PS752 at 06:12 LT. Prior to PS752, the last flight movement at IKA was the departure of QR8408 at 05:39 local time."

I just can't imagine a TOR being the first/only one to detect a threatening aircraft even if it was moving directly towards Tehran. Nobody has cloaking devices, and the TOR's little engagement radar has no magical sensitivity that they could have seen anything that all the longer-range radars would have missed. The crews understand this. They're not supposed to make command decisions to destroy aircraft like they're playing a video game, and their commanders would not simply have used the closest TOR to blast an unidentified target near a Tehran's airport when they had plenty of time to figure out what was going on and opportunity to blast it if it ever was identified as a threat.

With all of that said, that doesn’t mean that some trigger happy guy down at the launcher doesn’t press ‘fire’ anyway, but I doubt it.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by peter12

Kind of a consequence of 40 years of Sunny Ways foreign policy to be honest.

Well Harper killed Canada's diplomatic ties to Iran, and I was on board with that after Iran brutally tortured and murdered Zahra Kazemi, and then told the Canadian Government to get stuffed at the same time that other embassies were being attacked in Iran.


I fail to see what difference a ambassador to Iran would do at this point, they would still be covering this up and laughing at our inquiries.

[nik-]

Iran called on Western governments to prove claims the Boeing Co. 737-800 passenger jet that crashed near Tehran on Wednesday was shot down, intensifying a standoff that could complicate an already difficult investigation fraught with geopolitical hurdles.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...t-752-prove-it

Raising concern that the investigation into the crash might be compromised, a crew of U.S. broadcaster CBS found the impact site unguarded and unsecured, with virtually all pieces of the plane cleared away and scavengers picking the location clean of remaining debris.

On Sky News on Friday, the Iranian ambassador to Britain denied Friday reports that Iran had bulldozed the site. Taking to Twitter after his appearance, Hamid Baeidinejad said such reports were “absolutely absurd.”

How cartoon villain of them.

[peter12]

Honestly this kind of response makes me sort of believe there was some kind of intent to shoot down the airliner in order to provoke a Western response.

[Baron von Kriterium]

(2)

TOR or AD network hacked to fire?

Remotely technically possible, but odd timing/opportunity to give up your secret hack to Iran. I can think of higher value targets to use a one-time trick like that for (if it even exists).

What about the TOR warhead/fuse/pointy-thingy?

The nose and its movable fins are the guidance unit, not a warhead. No fuse, no explosives. The warhead is behind it. First, Bellingcat said the picture came from the crash site. Then Bellingcat said from the same neighborhood where the video guy was standing. But the TOR guidance units should be found in the vicinity of where the missiles have detonated, not at the crash site. The nose looks like it was placed conveniently next to a wall. There is no sign the nose cone thundered in from altitude.

Full disclosure: Bellingcat works for the Atlantic Council which is funded by NATO. Take everything they say with a grain of salt. Their analysis is hardly impartial.

Was this 'incriminating' evidence turned into the authorities? If so, the Iranians will be able to trace it back to the unit that supposedly fired it. Of course, they could just drive out to that TOR site and look for an empty launch tube. From there I guess they decide to cover it up or not.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by nik-

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...t-752-prove-it




How cartoon villain of them.

Wouldn't it be easier for them to prove it wasn't shot down, you know, by sharing the black box data?

[Baron von Kriterium]

(3)

What about the video? Fake?

If it's real, then I would say a MANPADS. The aircraft was easily within range and engagement envelope of any modern shoulder-fired rocket (or two). Explosive residue and shrapnel will help identify the specific one. Unfortunately, it appears Iran has cocked that up by cleaning up the site.

The area they (I'm going with the two missiles narrative intelligence "sources" have provided) would have been fired from is low, rocky hills. Easy to conceal actual launch site minus the sound, but someone would have reported it. All MANPADS' solid-fuel motors are really damn loud, so anyone within a few km would have heard it launched and at least seen it after a few seconds.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

just reading there is one more thing that Canada can do and that's sanction individuals in their government if they have any assets in Canadian Banks and freeze those assets, and push our allies to do the same.

They can also increase visa restrictions for Iranians looking to come to Canada on visitor/work/student permits. I know that will mostly affect normal everyday citizens rather then the government. But other countries (including Canada) have done this in the past.

Before someone accuses me of wanting to impose a ''muslim ban'', it should be known that Canada is already incredibly restrictive on what countries have visa-free entry to Canada. It's easy for us as Canadians to visit many places around the world without needing a visa. But it's the opposite when coming to visit here. Many countries have the bar set quite high before a visa is issued to those residents to visit Canada. Some countries are on a red-flag list and it's almost impossible for nationals from those countries to come here.

I don't support a full "Iranian ban", as pretty much every Iranian I've met in Canada is not only super-chill, but smart AF and we need people like that here. But it's definitely an option, albeit an unlikely one, if the government chooses to go that route.

[CroFlames]

I am kind of outraged at this. 63 Canadians killed is an astounding number.

I don't think this happens without Trump ordering and carrying out the assassination of the general, but Iran is still responsible for it's actions. Even if it was a mistake, it was egregious and negligent. No excuse to shoot a civilian plane taking off from your own airport.

I hope Trudeau addresses the UN general assembly and demands answers from Iran and an apology. At the very least, it's symbolically standing up for ourselves and not hand waving away the deaths of 63 citizens.

Note: I am NOT calling for a revenge strike against Iran.

[Royle9]

Sadly Canada wont do anything because we really cant do anything.
As much as JT claims Canada will do everything in our power to get answers, we have no power... so we wont be doing anything.

Black boxes withheld just further proves it was shot down, there's footage showing it was shot down, the U.S has confirmed it was shot down with hit signatures/mapping.

With that being said, without a doubt this is retaliation for the assassination.

But dont forget the U.S also shot down an Iranian passenger plane back in the 80's and tried to cover it up horribly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by you&me

Wouldn't it be easier for them to prove it wasn't shot down, you know, by sharing the black box data?

Maybe, I'm not sure exactly what is recorded by the Flight Recorder portion in terms of sensor information and systems information. We know that there was no pilot discussion. There's a theory that the crew was dead.


Iran has released pictures of the black box. They've indicated that they'd be willing to share the results of the examination of the black box as well, but also I read said it will take months to examine it.



Initially after Iran said that the black boxes (two) had been recovered and both were damaged and had data missing.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

They can also increase visa restrictions for Iranians looking to come to Canada on visitor/work/student permits. I know that will mostly affect normal everyday citizens rather then the government. But other countries (including Canada) have done this in the past.

Before someone accuses me of wanting to impose a ''muslim ban'', it should be known that Canada is already incredibly restrictive on what countries have visa-free entry to Canada. It's easy for us as Canadians to visit many places around the world without needing a visa. But it's the opposite when coming to visit here. Many countries have the bar set quite high before a visa is issued to those residents to visit Canada. Some countries are on a red-flag list and it's almost impossible for nationals from those countries to come here.

I don't support a full "Iranian ban", as pretty much every Iranian I've met in Canada is not only super-chill, but smart AF and we need people like that here. But it's definitely an option, albeit an unlikely one, if the government chooses to go that route.

I would rather we encourage people to escape from that murderous regime then restrict people that want to leave to be honest.


We don't have much power, the UN doesn't have much power, the US has just imposed new sanctions.



Like I said, the victims families and friends are going to move on from Mourning and sadness to anger and demands for action and answers.


We don't have the resources or ability to press. Even with a full embassy and Ambassador we wouldn't have much stroke, Iran's not well known for how they deal with foreign countries and would probably crumple up any demand note and throw it in the chase.


Like I said, the current government is in a real bind here. They can demand all they want, but Iran will make them look ineffectual and stone wall us like they did with the murder of the Canadian photographer in Iran, and basically tell us to get lost.



Life is going to get a lot harder for the ordinary Iranians now with more sanctions.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Maybe, I'm not sure exactly what is recorded by the Flight Recorder portion in terms of sensor information and systems information. We know that there was no pilot discussion. There's a theory that the crew was dead.

I'm going to assume here.. but based on historical data of plane crashes that if in fact this was caused by "engine failure" as originally reported, one would guess/wager that there would have been significant pilot discussion and reporting to the tower if they were experiencing any sort of mechanical failure.

Now if they plane was unexpectedly shot by a S.A.M you could then assume that there was no time to actually discuss anything therefor the data would show no discussion....

It's very sad that these people paid such a price for nothing but bull#### political world drama here. I hope Iran pays, but without further escalation I don't see sanctions and restrictions really doing much in terms of "answers" to what happened and the families here ultimately get screwed.