05-28-2018, 01:07 PM
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#181
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger
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lol
Sarcasm obviously but having 4+ days in between games, especially over the weekend, made it feel like the friggin playoffs were over...
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05-28-2018, 01:09 PM
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#182
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That Crazy Guy at the Bus Stop
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Springfield Penitentiary
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That actually makes a lot more sense. I thought you were trolling.
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05-28-2018, 01:14 PM
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#183
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger
That actually makes a lot more sense. I thought you were trolling.
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nah man, trolling's for the kids...
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05-28-2018, 01:15 PM
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#184
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Sec206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dash_pinched
I heard driving into work on the radio this morning that a guy has a betting slip for $5000 for the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup when they were at 500-to-1 (i.e. a potential 2.5 million dollar payout). The casino is willing to buy back the ticket and give him a cool 1 million dollars. The guy has declined the offer.
/I'd be taking the million at this point, but I have bills to pay  |
I would easily take the sure money regardless of the payout. Bird in a hand over two in a bush, but that's me.
The guy is probably thinking that he is basically putting down 1mil on the Knights to win with a payout of 2.5mil. Those are still great odds given that the Knights are listed at -140 today. With those odds his ticket is actually worth 1.67mil today of actual value. I bet an offer of 1.5mil would probably convince him.
Last edited by theslymonkey; 05-28-2018 at 01:23 PM.
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05-28-2018, 01:42 PM
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#185
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke
Fair enough, and dont forget that this is America so he only gets to keep roughly half of that.
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If he's from the US.
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05-28-2018, 01:44 PM
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#186
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theslymonkey
I would easily take the sure money regardless of the payout. Bird in a hand over two in a bush, but that's me.
The guy is probably thinking that he is basically putting down 1mil on the Knights to win with a payout of 2.5mil. Those are still great odds given that the Knights are listed at -140 today. With those odds his ticket is actually worth 1.67mil today of actual value. I bet an offer of 1.5mil would probably convince him.
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That's what I was thinking. Vegas is favoured so I would push for at least 50% if not more.
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05-28-2018, 01:56 PM
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#187
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Sec206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
That's what I was thinking. Vegas is favoured so I would push for at least 50% if not more.
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Not only that. At -140 someone would need to bet 3.75mil to get a payout of 2.5mil. So it makes sense that he would keep the ticket.
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05-28-2018, 02:01 PM
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#188
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theslymonkey
I would easily take the sure money regardless of the payout. Bird in a hand over two in a bush, but that's me.
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If he had the kind of money to drop $5000 on Vegas before the season started, he probably doesn't really need the money.
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05-28-2018, 02:11 PM
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#189
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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I keep reading this, but does nobody understand that $5K and $1M are very different numbers?
__________________
The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!
This Post Has Been Distilled for the Eradication of Seemingly Incurable Sadness.
The World Ends when you're dead. Until then, you've got more punishment in store. - Flames Fans
If you thought this season would have a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention.
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05-28-2018, 02:28 PM
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#190
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Franchise Player
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1million is terrible value for that ticket . Just hedge by borrowing a million and betting it on Washington at $+125. You either win 1.25 or 1.5 million minus the interest on the loan.
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05-28-2018, 02:33 PM
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#191
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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I saw this in Vegas:
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The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to GioforPM For This Useful Post:
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05-28-2018, 02:39 PM
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#192
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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^
Amazing.
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05-28-2018, 02:49 PM
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#193
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke
I keep reading this, but does nobody understand that $5K and $1M are very different numbers?
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Yeah, but you have to be doing pretty damn well in the first place to be willing to put $5k down on that type of longshot.
And yeah, 1.5 seems like the right number, imo.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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05-28-2018, 02:50 PM
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#194
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Celebrated Square Root Day
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locke
I keep reading this, but does nobody understand that $5K and $1M are very different numbers?
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But their point is that if you are spending $5k on a super long shot before the season starts then it's very unlikely you aren't extremely wealthy already.
People bet big from all walks of life at times, but long shots with bets that big are typically made by guys rolling in cash. And his refusal of the $1mil buy out supports that, imo.
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05-28-2018, 03:19 PM
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#195
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Sec206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jayswin
But their point is that if you are spending $5k on a super long shot before the season starts then it's very unlikely you aren't extremely wealthy already.
People bet big from all walks of life at times, but long shots with bets that big are typically made by guys rolling in cash. And his refusal of the $1mil buy out supports that, imo.
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Yes and No.
Right now he knows that his ticket is worth the 1mil that he was offered. But if he took 1mil and placed it on Vegas to win the cup he would win 667K. But if he holds onto his ticket he's essentially doing the same thing but he would win 1.5mil on the same investment.
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05-28-2018, 03:20 PM
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#196
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theslymonkey
Yes and No.
Right now he knows that his ticket is worth the 1mil that he was offered. But if he took 1mil and placed it on Vegas to win the cup he would win 667K. But if he holds onto his ticket he's essentially doing the same thing but he would win 1.5mil on the same investment.
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Or go home $5000 in the hole.
He should take the $1 million and run.
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05-28-2018, 03:25 PM
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#197
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Sec206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
Or go home $5000 in the hole.
He should take the $1 million and run.
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That 5K is a sunk cost.
He's now is holding a 1M note (it's actually worth more, but that's the offer).
I am usually the one to take a sure thing. But the offer is crap given the available odds.
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05-28-2018, 03:26 PM
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#198
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Franchise Player
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Someone putting $5000 on a 500:1 dog is likely in it to win it. The money is probably nothing to him and is hedged elsewhere.
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05-28-2018, 03:28 PM
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#199
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theslymonkey
That 5K is a sunk cost.
He's now is holding a 1M note (it's actually worth more, but that's the offer).
I am usually the one to take a sure thing. But the offer is crap given the available odds.
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It's only a $1M note if he accepts the offer.
If he doesn't, then it's worth nothing or $2.5M.
A sane person will convert the bet slip into a $1M note. An irrational one will gamble on getting zero or $2.5M.
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05-28-2018, 03:32 PM
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#200
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Sec206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
It's only a $1M note if he accepts the offer.
If he doesn't, then it's worth nothing or $2.5M.
A sane person will convert the bet slip into a $1M note. An irrational one will gamble on getting zero or $2.5M.
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But if the money line for Vegas is -140, then the math behind that is worth the hold. Or split the sell to people wanting to bet on Vegas. That ticket has far too many options that is better than giving in to the Vegas offer.
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