[Rumour] UPD: Friedman: Thinks a deal will get done between Gaudreau and the Flames in the next week

[AltaGuy]

To me there are two likely outcomes:

1. We pay him longterm, for big money, and we build around him. Flames give in.

2. Some type of shorter compromise is reached where neither party is very happy, and Gaudreau isn't a Flame much longer.

Of course those are not the only two possibilities by a long shot, but those are the likely two at this point in the negotiation in my opinion. Johansen, Turris, etc. - yeah, the team used its leverage, and soon the player is no longer there.

I like Gaudreau enough, and trust his talent enough, to want to take scenario 2 off the table.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

The longer this goes on the more I'm leaning toward supporting management's position. I absolutely love Gaudreau, but it's more important to have cap flexibility in order to create a competitive team. It's still a team game, and while Gaudreau is a HUGELY important piece of that team, he's still one piece. We still have Monahan, Bennett, Tkachuk etc. to carry the offense, and those players are likely going to need to be paid at some point. So while we can talk about bad contracts coming off the books, if you go back and put another one on the books when you have the ability to keep it low due to Gaudreau's unique situation, why would you willingly do that? Wouldn't you wait as long as possible before moving your position?

I'm not faulting Gaudreau for asking either, but his camp should be aware that Treliving already has a reputation of being a tough negotiator. He's talked about doing exhaustive research and determining a market for a player, and then making sure they're near that market. I think that's what he's done here, and it's why he's not budging much (if what has been speculated is true). I even think Treliving is willing to go as long as he needs to into the season sticking to his guns in order to get what he believes to be a fair deal.

I also think we'd be fine short-term without Gaudreau. If nothing else, it would give an opportunity for Tkachuk to have a 9 game audition, and perhaps give Jankowski some time with the team at the start of the season. Bennett looks ready to go, as does Brouwer. Monahan will likely be healthy for game 1, and it sounds like Backlund will be ready as well. We still get a lot of offense from our defense (Gio, Brodie, Hamilton, even Wideman). We finally have 2 very capable goaltenders. As long as we play a decent 5 man system and don't crap the bed on special teams, we'll still be competitive without Gaudreau in the lineup. Not as good, obviously, but I don't think this team is doomed to repeat the awful start we had last year if Gaudreau doesn't play to start the year.

I'd even be willing to sacrifice this year if it meant Gaudreau was signed long term with a reasonable contract. 8 years is a long time, and one season's slow start (where we aren't likely a cup contender yet anyways) can be overlooked if it means we have the wiggle room to add the key depth pieces to take us over the top 2 or 3 years down the road. You have to think long term about these things.

I still want this to get done ASAP, and that would be ideal, but I don't want to hamstring the team going forward because Gaudreau's agent (and Gaudreau presumably) want to rewrite the book on RFA negotiations.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes I believe $8M is a bad contract.

Hall had 50 points in 45 games (shortened season) in the 3rd year of his ELC at the age of 20. Had he not missed 3 games, he probably would have been top 5 or 6 in the league in scoring (missed top 6 by 3 points).

Every Oiler fan would have said at that point that he was a certainty to be a league star for the next 10-15 years.

There is always risk.

Hall is a star player but he is no Gaudreau. Johnny makes players around him better and has on ice vision that gets compared to Gretzky. Every year since we drafted Johnny he has taken a step forward. He has never taken a step back or stalled. PPG rookie of the year hockey east, 1.5ppg Hobey baker nominated world junior star, Hobey baker winner 2ppg, Calder nominated 64pts NHL rookie, 78pts top 6 in league scoring, best player on young stars team in best on best

I don't think he has peaked yet and he will keep getting better.

I am not advocating $8M but would totally support it. I am advocating max term however because I believe if the flames are going to win a cup with this core Johnny needs to be a part of it

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

My read is that while the Flames have all the theoretical leverage, they have no practical leverage.

Who needs each other more? The Flames need Gaudreau. The fans demand it and the future competitiveness of the team demands it. Further, the Flames know can't poison the well with their future superstar for fear of leaving at the first opportunity. Gaudreau and his agent know all this. They also have a perfectly legitimate argument that Gaudreau should be paid top dollars for his top performing years which will be in his next contract. That's something that some teams are stumbling over. No matter what the rules are with RFAs the money is gradually but concertedly moving to pay the best players the most.

The Flames, likely led by His Stubbornness Brian Burke, seem not able to understand that while you may have the leverage of the rules, you don't have the leverage of the game. I predict the Flames will break and Gaudreau gets what I said he'll get paid a year ago, Tarasenko money.

This is just another log on the fire that is the arbitrary RFA rules for superstars. It's quickly going up in smoke.

Is that the flames breaking or Gaudreau breaking. Taresenko money is 8x7.2. Johnnys camp is at 8 the flames are at 6.75. Half way is 7.35. The gio cap doesn't actually exist it's being used as a bargaining chip.

The question is just as much will Gaudreau come off his highest RFA don't act ever stance vs the flames and the gio cap.

[JerryUnderscore]

For the sake of clarity, this post is going to come to you in four parts.


1. Contract Overpayments

Enoch pointed out, quite correctly, that you don't solve an issue with bad contracts by giving out more bad contracts and hoping the former take care of themselves.

This is true. You can't fixed the fact that Wideman, Engelland and Bouma have bad contracts by overpaying Gaudreau.

However, I would also argue that there is a difference between a slight overpayment and a bad contract. What makes the contracts of Wideman, Engelland and Bouma bad is not simply that they are overpayments, but just how large of overpayments they are. Each one is an overpayment of at least 100% (maybe closer to 200% in England's case).

If we compare this with Gaudreau, it's a drastically different story. Assuming Gaudreau is worth $7.25M/year, even if he signs an $8M/year deal, that's only an overpayment of 10.34%. A 10% overpayment on a star player isn't really that big of a deal.

Of course, by no means am I suggesting, as other have, that the Flames should simply capitulate to whatever Johnny is asking. Rather that, even in the unlikely scenario that Gaudreau's camp gets their full ask, it's not a horrendous overpayment that would handicap this team moving forward.


2. Salary Structure

However, in reality, this contract negotiation is not simply about Gaudreau or this upcoming season. Treliving has mentioned multiple times how his management team is continually to make models and projections. They're looking at where the cap is likely to go over the next few years, they're considering how Sam Bennett could project (high, low and likely) and they're going to consider Tkachuk the same way.

Which means the Flames can't (and won't) simply paint themselves into a corner. They won't sign Gaudreau to any contract without taking into consideration what that will likely mean for their entire salary structure down the road.


3. Business Considerations

Of course, regardless of their internal salary structure, the Flames would no doubt love to sign Gaudreau to the lowest possible contract. Even if he is worth $7.25M, if they can sign him for $6.5M why wouldn't they? Similarly, Gaudreau's agent would love to get him signed to the biggest contract possible. Once again, why wouldn't he?

When we (as the fans) demonize either side in this negotiation simply for doing their job, we take this out of the realm of business and start thinking it's personal.

But it's not personal. The only way it becomes personal is if the Flames have plenty of cap space and simply refuse to sign Gaudreau to a reasonable contract because of character issues. As long as it stays about the Flames current and ongoing salary structure compared with the players on-ice performance, then we're fine.


4. Speculation

I admit this is speculative with no basis, but the fact that the two sides are supposedly in a "cold war" as McKenzie put it and not talking to each other suggests to me that they're actually a lot closer to a deal then we may think.

If they were still sitting at $6.5M and $8M respectively, then trying to make the other side nervous by not talking isn't very effective. However, if they are somewhere closer to $7M and $7.5M (hypothetically), it's much more reasonable to assuming their strategy is designed to get the other side to move closer to their ask.

Like McKenzie said, there's still plenty of time. While this certainly could drag into the season, I wouldn't be surprised to see them nail something down before Oct. 12th.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

My read is that while the Flames have all the theoretical leverage, they have no practical leverage.

Who needs each other more? The Flames need Gaudreau. The fans demand it and the future competitiveness of the team demands it. Further, the Flames know can't poison the well with their future superstar for fear of leaving at the first opportunity. Gaudreau and his agent know all this. They also have a perfectly legitimate argument that Gaudreau should be paid top dollars for his top performing years which will be in his next contract. That's something that some teams are stumbling over. No matter what the rules are with RFAs the money is gradually but concertedly moving to pay the best players the most.

The Flames, likely led by His Stubbornness Brian Burke, seem not able to understand that while you may have the leverage of the rules, you don't have the leverage of the game. I predict the Flames will break and Gaudreau gets what I said he'll get paid a year ago, Tarasenko money.

This is just another log on the fire that is the arbitrary RFA rules for superstars. It's quickly going up in smoke.

I tend to agree with this. Obviously there are different opinions and I am not saying I am right, but I believe that $8 million is a decent and fair starting point for Gaudreau's side to negotiate down from. I doubt they assumed they would get their initial ask. If it's true that the Flames are starting around $6.3 million AVV, then I think they are lowballing and should be the first side to move on that number. If the Flames don't move first, then I can see why Gaudreau's agent would hold firm.

Don't get me wrong, I would love a deal (either short term to bring him to his last year of RFA status), or better yet, long term that pays him under $7 million AVV. I just don't see it happening. $7.5 seems like a fair price IMO.

The question I suppose is whether the Flames value Gaudreau as a premiere star player. Maybe they don't and in that case, they certainly need to hold their ground or trade him to a team that will pay him.

[speede5]

Considering the Flames burned a year on his contract by playing him for one game and how much that helped him it's kinda greasy to be hardballing the team now.

He's probably worth every penny, but this kind of money with low time given is part of the problem with the sport.

Call me old school or whatever but get off my lawn. :P

[FeyWest]

This is more on Gross than it is Gaudreau (yes I know Johnny could step in but this is why one has an agent). Gross has been known to be a hard nut to crack, or at least everything I've read on him.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

The longer this goes on the more I'm leaning toward supporting management's position. I absolutely love Gaudreau, but it's more important to have cap flexibility in order to create a competitive team. It's still a team game, and while Gaudreau is a HUGELY important piece of that team, he's still one piece. We still have Monahan, Bennett, Tkachuk etc. to carry the offense.

Can they carry the offense? Monahan has not shown he can carry the play without Gaudreau, last year when they were split up he did not even look like a star player. Bennett is unproven. Tkachuk very possibly tops out as a 55 point guy.

Sure Johnny is "one piece" but that piece - a top ten scorer in the league is something every cup champ must have even in a cap constrained era:

Eric Staal was a 100+ pt guy once upon a time.
Selanne is a HoF winger.
Datsyuk was a 90+ pt guy.
Crosby and Malkin.. enough said.
Anze Kopitar was a top scorer despite playing for a team without a lot of offense.
Patrick Kane... we all know how closely he tracks with Gaudreau.

All that leaves is the Bruins, a team that got every bounce, every save en route. It worked for them but they also hit a worse cap hell than every team that invested in its star players. Hardly the cap structure one should emulate.

[zukes]

I am going to go ahead and call it. Gaudreau signs today. I don't know the term or amount, but it gets done and announced today!

[IgiTang]

8 mil x 8 years now or 6x4 now and 10+mil going forward after that.

Paying more now is cost savings later... I don't understand how this gets missed when talking about an 8x8 and people saying that's too much.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Can they carry the offense? Monahan has not shown he can carry the play without Gaudreau, last year when they were split up he did not even look like a star player. Bennett is unproven. Tkachuk very possibly tops out as a 55 point guy.

This is a pretty gloomy outlook if I may say so.

Monahan did just fine his rookie year without Gaudreau. In fact, he had some truly terrible line mates at times, and most of them were mediocre at best. I think we can all agree that Monahan didn't have his best year last year, but he was still just fine, and I don't doubt he's good for 20 goals and 50 points with anyone on his wings.

Bennett had an up an down campaign, and yes you're right, he's technically unproven, but he's a blue chip prospect/NHLer now going into his sophomore season where he added a bunch of muscle. Early viewings have shown him to be dangerous every time he's on the ice. Even if he's only half as good once the season starts, that's still plenty good enough for me. It wouldn't shock me at all to see him top 60 points this year, and possibly much more.

Projecting Tkachuk's point totals at this point is presumptive, so I won't bother getting into that, but the guy is definitely an offensive weapon. 55 points tops? I'm not sure why you think he can't be better than that. Even if he never gets higher than a 2nd line player, that's still an important piece that can score you big goals and take over a game physically.

So are any of those guys individually as good as Gaudreau? No, obviously not as talented, but they all bring other elements that are just as important to winning games. Playing center, defensive responsibility, net front presence, grinding in corners, intimidating the opposition with physicality, etc. Give me 3 great pieces to build a team around over having 1 superstar. BUT, if you can keep those 3 great pieces around to COMPLEMENT that superstar, that's ideal, and that's what I'm advocating by signing Gaudreau to a reasonable contract.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

8 mil x 8 years now or 6x4 now and 10+mil going forward after that.

Paying more now is cost savings later... I don't understand how this gets missed when talking about an 8x8 and people saying that's too much.

No way to 6x4. When has a RFA singed a bridge deal that pays him $6M per.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by speede5

Considering the Flames burned a year on his contract by playing him for one game and how much that helped him it's kinda greasy to be hardballing the team now.

He's probably worth every penny, but this kind of money with low time given is part of the problem with the sport.

Call me old school or whatever but get off my lawn. :P

If Johnny ate 500K a year for that one game, that game would cost him 4 million dollars. That is one hell of an expensive game. If the Flames think they can get him for less than 7 million they are dreaming.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

This is a pretty gloomy outlook if I may say so.

Monahan did just fine his rookie year without Gaudreau. In fact, he had some truly terrible line mates at times, and most of them were mediocre at best. I think we can all agree that Monahan didn't have his best year last year, but he was still just fine, and I don't doubt he's good for 20 goals and 50 points with anyone on his wings.

Bennett had an up an down campaign, and yes you're right, he's technically unproven, but he's a blue chip prospect/NHLer now going into his sophomore season where he added a bunch of muscle. Early viewings have shown him to be dangerous every time he's on the ice. Even if he's only half as good once the season starts, that's still plenty good enough for me. It wouldn't shock me at all to see him top 60 points this year, and possibly much more.

Projecting Tkachuk's point totals at this point is presumptive, so I won't bother getting into that, but the guy is definitely an offensive weapon. 55 points tops? I'm not sure why you think he can't be better than that. Even if he never gets higher than a 2nd line player, that's still an important piece that can score you big goals and take over a game physically.

So are any of those guys individually as good as Gaudreau? No, obviously not as talented, but they all bring other elements that are just as important to winning games. Playing center, defensive responsibility, net front presence, grinding in corners, intimidating the opposition with physicality, etc. Give me 3 great pieces to build a team around over having 1 superstar. BUT, if you can keep those 3 great pieces around to COMPLEMENT that superstar, that's ideal, and that's what I'm advocating by signing Gaudreau to a reasonable contract.

We are way overypaying Monahan if he is only good for 50 points without Johnny. At his wage he has to be a 30 goal 60 point guy, with or without Johnny.

[IgiTang]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

No way to 6x4. When has a RFA singed a bridge deal that pays him $6M per.

Well, I for one don't think a bridge deal is appropriate for JG, however there have been many on this board saying a bridge deal could work.

If there were to be a bridge deal, you think JG accepts anything less than 6mil per? No, especially when he's seeking $8m for his services.

Other teams pay Elite players Elite salaries, why do many here think the Flames should be different from every other team?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

We are way overypaying Monahan if he is only good for 50 points without Johnny. At his wage he has to be a 30 goal 60 point guy, with or without Johnny.

I agree, but I was just responding to the worst case scenario that GranteedEV posted. Those are what I would see Monahan having for numbers in that worst case scenario.

[IgiTang]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

We are way overypaying Monahan if he is only good for 50 points without Johnny. At his wage he has to be a 30 goal 60 point guy, with or without Johnny.

Which he has already done without Johnny.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

8 mil x 8 years now or 6x4 now and 10+mil going forward after that.

Paying more now is cost savings later... I don't understand how this gets missed when talking about an 8x8 and people saying that's too much.

Because 7M x 8 years is saving even more.

[OldSam]

Actually, Bob Mckenzie only reiterated that the World Cup was a silent zone for discussions. He did not say they were not talking now. He also reiterated the numbers Francis mentioned a month ago. I find it impossible to believe BT isn't calling every single day. In any case, I was leaning towards giving JG a lot more than the Flames apparently want to give him. Now I don't know.