Predict the 2016/2017 Flames Starting Lineup

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I doubt those contracts will count

They counted the last time the league expanded. Of course that's no guarantee that it would be the same this time but I think past behavior is a better indication of future behavior then just guessing.

Originally Posted by 420since1974

A. There is enough Cap Space to re-sign all RFAs AND sign a $5M Goalie. There is not room for a UFA RW.
B. If expansion takes place in 2017/2018, only Stajan (Limited NTC) and Giordano (Full NTC) would have to be protected.
C. Agreed. Just think that he won't be moved until the TDL.

Are you sure about "A"? We were a cap team this year... Let's say Monahan and Gaudreau get a combined 13ishM, Gio get's his raise, + 5M goalie let's call that 21M even. Hudler + Jones + Ramo + Hiller get's 16.3, diff between Jokipakka and Russell get's us to 18ish so we're 3M short. Cap is likely going to 74M or thereabouts so we're okey-ish... except that Monahan and Gaudreau probably eat into it some more with their bonus overages and the few other RFA's are due raises (Colborne most notably). If we're under the cap we're just barely under it... I'd rather have the breathing room that buying out Wideman would provide (and honestly I'd rather just not have Wideman playing here anymore).

As for B, it depends on a lot of things... how the League and NHLPA hash out the inevitable coming NMC dispute and when the expansion draft occurs (pre or post July 1).

Personally, I think the Flames are better off both on and off the ice if they buy Wideman out. If they can work out a trade before the buyout window closes all the better but if they can't I think the prudent move is to do it.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

A voice of reason ...

How did the Flames end up with this line-up and Burke/Trevling get treated like they know what they are doing?

Smid was listed day-to-day on the Flames year end injury report.

Will another top-6 pick in 2017 (4th in 5 years) bring a management change?

Will the current management team make a Phanuef level deal to buy another year?

Well Treliving has been GM for 2 full seasons and has a second round playoff appearance and a bottom 5 finish. I find it difficult to see him get moved out even if the team struggles again next year.

Wideman, Smid, Stajan were all inherited by Treliving.

He signed Engellend and Raymond and only Raymond looks like the bad signing to date.

The jury is out on Frolik and Hamilton but I think a high % would think fondly on those deals.

Looking at the Treliving trades inwould not assume he would make a Phaneuf level move as you describe it.

Bollig was a bad pickup but cost a 3rd.
Glencross and Baertschi trades were solid
Hamilton was a huge move and great trade
Russell, and Granlund deals were very solid.

For a team that was expected to go through a long painful rebuild the first 3 years have been pretty solid. He gets 2-3 more years before he would be in any trouble IMO

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by MattyC

When he was talking about young players that are still learning the game...

Yep. The first players he thought of were Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Ferland, Brodie and Hamilton. Kind of gives you an idea of how important they think Ferland could be doesn't it? He didn't mention any other young players despite us having a lot of then

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

A voice of reason ...

How did the Flames end up with this line-up and Burke/Trevling get treated like they know what they are doing?

Smid was listed day-to-day on the Flames year end injury report.

Will another top-6 pick in 2017 (4th in 5 years) bring a management change?

Will the current management team make a Phanuef level deal to buy another year?

[AC]

Originally Posted by midniteowl

If it's between Hathaway or Jooris, I'd want Hathaway on the team. I love his pestiness.

For what it's worth regarding Jooris, I heard from a connected source Josh doesn't expect to be brought back by the Flames next season.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by AC

For what it's worth regarding Jooris, I heard from a connected source Josh doesn't expect to be brought back by the Flames next season.

Yeah Jooris had a chance to cement himself in our lineup this year but he was an oft healthy scratch and just didn't make a huge impact when he was in the lineup. Hathaway outperformed him and arguably guys like Hamilton looked as good and perhaps more versatile. Jooris had some chances playing further up the lineup and disappointed, didn't show anything more than a 4th line grinder or 13/14th forward.

Wouldn't surprise me if the Flames moved Jooris in the offseason to make room for a guy like Hathaway.

[Krule]

IMHO, we have an outside shot (Trading up or lottery up) at the 2nd or 3rd pick overall. Picking 2nd or 3rd nets either Laine or Puljujarvi. But I suspect we are staying where we are now and picking 6th. With the latter in mind (picking 6th) we may net Chychryn...fingers crossed

Going forward if we pick 6th:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Frolick
Bennett - Backlund - Pribyl (rumored to be signing)
Shinkaruk - Jankowski - Ferland
Colborne - Grant - Hathaway / Hamilton (either as the 13th forward)

I see a problem going forward regarding the amount of good centres we have in our system. We may have to make a trade with one of them since I think going forward, the idea was to have Bennett play at centre. Would you play Bennett as the 3rd line centre and move Jankowski to the 4th line? Not sure I would do that but it may happen. I don't have a great desire to see Bouma, Jooris, Bollig and Stajan as part of this team next training camp. Please trade Wideman and buy out Raymond.

On defense we'd have:

Brodie - Hamilton
Gio - Engelland
Nakladal - JJ
Wotherspoon/Morrison (either as the 7th defenceman)

In goal:

Anderson (my choice) - Ortio

This is of course barring any trades and/or acquisitions over the summer.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

I think Jooris makes a great 13th/14th forward. I don't know why they wouldn't bring him back in that role. I would rather have him than Bollig that's for sure.

[AC]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I think Jooris makes a great 13th/14th forward. I don't know why they wouldn't bring him back in that role. I would rather have him than Bollig that's for sure.

Yep, I agree.

Though Grant and Hathaway would both be upgrades based on Jooris' most recent season.

If the team believes he could play like he did his rookie year, he's worth keeping IMO.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I think Jooris makes a great 13th/14th forward. I don't know why they wouldn't bring him back in that role. I would rather have him than Bollig that's for sure.

Agreed on Jooris > Bollig being a no-brainer. Bollig offers nothing other than fighting, and if we want a guy there to JUST fight we may as well have a useless plug heavyweight like McGrattan than a useless plug middleweight like Bollig.

However Shore and Hamilton sure did look like they perhaps have a little bit more to offer than Jooris based on their callups. I could see Jooris being offered a two-way contract and have those three duke it out for a roster spot. And Hathaway over Jooris is a no-brainer to me.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by AC

Yep, I agree.

Though Grant and Hathaway would both be upgrades based on Jooris' most recent season.

If the team believes he could play like he did his rookie year, he's worth keeping IMO.

I would have all three as our 12th, 13th and 14th forwards in my ideal world. Rotate as merit and injuries dictate.

[868904]

Sure are a lot of people predicting Shinkaruk in the starting lineup next season. He didn't look out of place to me in his games with the Flames but I didn't see an impact offensive player, which is what he needs to be.

He needs to get quicker and stronger so he can spend more time in the slot, which is where he will need to be to score goals. He's not waiver eligible till 2017 / 2018 season, so he should spend the majority of next season in Stockton to continue to develop. I don't think this will be an issue with him really, as he seems rather fearless. He just needs to develop that consistency and experience to go there all the time.

When Shinaruk makes it to the NHL, he needs to be an impact offensive player. Not just a guy "who gets by".

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by AC

Though Grant and Hathaway would both be upgrades based on Jooris' most recent season.

Based on what?

Jooris Most Recent Season: 59-4-9-13 -1
Grant Career to Date: 40-0-3-3 -11
Hathaway Career to Date: 14-0-3-3 -1

Based on actual NHL performance to date Jooris easily bests both of them even just while comparing his most recent season to their career. If you want to get into possession stats for the year Jooris beats Grant with comparable zone starts (Hathaway bests Jooris but with cushier starts so that's basically a wash). I neither would be "upgrades" based on available evidence. Someone could have a preference based on style but then they'd be putting style before substance and that's never a good idea.

That's not to say I don't like the other guys (or at least Hathaway... Grant didn't impress me) but IMO you can't say that those two guys are surefire "upgrades" at least not without more game evidence.

[Da_Chief]

Jooris was good in his rookie but last season he got too comfortable in his role.

These are the types of players the organization has to be willing to ship out without hesitation and replace them with other prospects.

Hathaway will be hungry next year, put him in that spot if he gets complacent as well then find the next guy.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Based on what?

Based on watching them and based on Grant's crazy AHL numbers this year.

Grant is stronger along the boards, more skilled and better on face-offs. Dude put up MONSTER numbers in the AHL. Grant had 27 goals in 36 games. That is crazy. 4 of the 5 players who outscored him in goals played about twice as many games. That is impressive. Jooris has never scored at that pace in pro hockey, not even close. Jooris is faster but that's the only area I give him the edge.

http://theahl.com/stats/statdisplay....division_id=-1

Hathaway just does Jooris's job better. He's more consistently physical, stronger, more annoying, draws more penalties.

[AC]

That's fair Parallex, I meant in terms of what they bring other than points.

Hathaway looked to be an ideal 4th line player in terms of hits (50 in 14 games), blocks (17), and penalties drawn / havoc caused. He effectively got under the skin of some of the other team's best players, like Chara/Marchand/Bergeron for BOS, Burns for SJ, Byfuglien for WPG.

Grant is also a better faceoff option in his young career, it's one of the aspects he gets praised for specifically. His AHL stats are vastly superior, though he has yet to look like a point producer in the NHL. However tough to argue with 27 goals in 36 games this AHL season.

I'd be more than happy to use a 4th line of Jooris - Grant - Hathaway.

[JJ1532]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Are you sure about "A"? We were a cap team this year... Let's say Monahan and Gaudreau get a combined 13ishM, Gio get's his raise, + 5M goalie let's call that 21M even. Hudler + Jones + Ramo + Hiller get's 16.3, diff between Jokipakka and Russell get's us to 18ish so we're 3M short. Cap is likely going to 74M or thereabouts so we're okey-ish... except that Monahan and Gaudreau probably eat into it some more with their bonus overages and the few other RFA's are due raises (Colborne most notably). If we're under the cap we're just barely under it... I'd rather have the breathing room that buying out Wideman would provide (and honestly I'd rather just not have Wideman playing here anymore).

I had a run of the numbers(as did a few others) to see how we stand:

Frolik(4.3)-Backlund(3.575)-Bouma(2.2)
Bennett(3.194)-Stajan(3.125)-Raymond(3.150)
Bollig(1.25)-Ferland(.825)

Giordano(6.75)-Brodie(4.65)
Engellend(2.917)-Hamilton(5.75)
Jokipakka(.900)-Wideman(5.25)
Smid(3.5)

RFAs: Monahan, Gaudreau, Colborne, Grant, Jooris, Elson, Shore, Wotherspoon, F.Hamilton, Agostino, BVB, Arnold, Poulin, Ortio
UFAs: Nakladal, Hiller, Ramo, Backstrom.

So, I make that $51m to start with. Monahan gets $6.5m and Gaudreau gets $7.5m. Thats $14m, takes us up to $65m. Colborne gets $2.5m, $67.5m. Reimer signs a $4.5m x 2 year deal. Thats $72m. Then it gets tricky. Ortio as a back up costs another $1m probably. Grant the same. Thats your cap limit, so getting the other RFAs done might be problematic. So you are right. If we want to have a little bit of breathing room for bonuses, extra RFAs etc, we would need to find a way to shed salary.

However, the nice thing is that Treliving can tackle one problem at a time. Sign Monahan and Gaudreau first, job 1 done. See if the expansion draft happens, that's 2. Go to the draft knowing the implications of the expansion. All 30 teams will be affected, not just us. I think a lot of trades will be happening come draft day.

Then we'll know post draft day what sort of money Treliving has to play with in regards to cap space. We'll know if he still needs to go after a goalie. We'll know if Wideman is still with us or not. Maybe we'll know if Smid needs to go on LTIR or not.

Things will work themselves out I think. Treliving knows what he's doing and I'm confident he can work around our issues over the next few months. Saying that though, this summer could define his time with us. He gets it right with the goaltending and with the anchors on the roster like Wideman, Smid, Raymond and Bollig and we'll be in a great positon come October. Get it wrong and we could face another underwhelming season. Huge few months coming up for him.

[Parallex]

Dude put up MONSTER numbers in the AHL.

An attribute he's never shown capable of replicating in the NHL. Plenty of guys put up bigass numbers in the AHL but can't do it in the NHL. I think Grant is one of those guys.

While he was up in the NHL he didn't push play north or play the opposition to a draw... if Grant is more skilled along the boards and better on face-offs it didn't translate into positive results on the ice as the team had comparatively less possession and got outscored. I don't expect fourth liners to be offensive dynamo's out there but the bar should be set at not leaving the team worse off and Grant didn't do that at the NHL level.

Originally Posted by AC

Hathaway looked to be an ideal 4th line player in terms of hits (50 in 14 games), blocks (17), and penalties drawn / havoc caused. He effectively got under the skin of some of the other team's best players, like Chara/Marchand/Bergeron for BOS, Burns for SJ, Byfuglien for WPG.

Hits and blocks don't really impress me as much as they do some others (although I did very much like Hathaway's ability to draw penalties and he has solid enough skills across the board). I have a lot of time for Hathaway, I think he could be something, just not so much time that I think he over Jooris is an open and shut case.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Jooris is faster [than Grant]

I don't think so. Grant is a faster skater.

[smiggy77]

Originally Posted by AC

That's fair Parallex, I meant in terms of what they bring other than points.

Hathaway looked to be an ideal 4th line player in terms of hits (50 in 14 games), blocks (17), and penalties drawn / havoc caused. He effectively got under the skin of some of the other team's best players, like Chara/Marchand/Bergeron for BOS, Burns for SJ, Byfuglien for WPG.

Grant is also a better faceoff option in his young career, it's one of the aspects he gets praised for specifically. His AHL stats are vastly superior, though he has yet to look like a point producer in the NHL. However tough to argue with 27 goals in 36 games this AHL season.

I'd be more than happy to use a 4th line of Jooris - Grant - Hathaway.

Totally agree with your points AC

I really think the problem when it comes to contracts. Jooris is a great 13/14th but if he's expecting more than how much we should be spending on a fourth liner (in my opinion should be a million or under), I really can't see how it would be worth to keep him.

Cap management is really one of the most integral parts of building a solid team and I do feel that Grant or Hathaway can fill that role, maybe not to the degree that Jooris can (based on experience) but you can manage and develop these young guys for that role.