16/17 Goalie Situation

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

What about Varlomov? The Avs love ex-Flames maybe something can be done around Wideman+pick? He has 2 or 3 more years at $5.9M on the cap and is 27

If they're married to Pickard maybe. But I don't know how they let Varly go. And he's kind of made of glass, and personal issues may have a toxic reaction from the fans here.

[TheScorpion]

IDK you guys, I've never been too impressed with Varlamov...

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

IDK you guys, I've never been too impressed with Varlamov...

Hey now, don't be slagging my favorite player from the late 90s

[driveway]

Since 2/23 Ortio's running a .917 save percentage. Which is an acceptable number for a goalie. It would put him around 30th in the league for goalies who have played at least 120 minutes. Other Goalies with that kind of number are Hellebuyck, Gibson, Reimer, Dubnyk, Halak, Jones, and Markstrom. Not an elite group, but a group of goalies who will win you games.

5v5 he's been alright: .922 which would be about 40th, again Gibson has a similar number; Martin Jones slightly above and Johnson, and Talbot are slightly below. His 4v5 number is a good .870 which would be 22nd over a season, putting him in a neighborhood with Holtby, Jones, Smith and Luongo.

Basically, over the last 5 games (an admittedly very small sample size) Joni Ortio has been almost identical to Martin Jones and very similar to John Gibson other than on the PK, where Gibson is excellent.

If you want to really put on the rose-coloured-glasses and you discount that 3rd period against Ottawa, Ortio's numbers become .930 overall and .972 5v5. Those numbers are extremely good. Really, they're too good to believe, but we're wearing our rose-glasses here so let's enjoy it. A .930 would be the 5th best save percentage in the league. And no goalie with more than 17 games has managed that kind of save percentage this season. That 5v5 number is just nuts, it's .026 better than the best 5v5 mark any goalie who's played more than 120 minutes has put up this year. The only goalies who have surpassed it at all are goalies who have only a single game this season: Roman Will, Kristers Gudlevskis, and Chris Driedger who have faced a total of 31 shots combined. Ortio's maintained that .972 insanity over 106 shots. Again a puny sample size, but actually kinda impressive as a singular feat.

Of course, there's the other Joni Ortio, the one prior to February 23rd. In exactly the same number of games (5) he had numbers that looked like this: .862 overall, .877 5v5, and .800 on the penalty kill. These numbers would be 7th last, 6th last, and 7th last in the league out of any goalies who'd strapped on skates this year. This is astonishingly bad. The only goalies who are down in this neighborhood are guys with 1 or 2 games on the season, and Hiller and Hammond's pk numbers (god I hate Jonas Hiller).

So, will the real Joni Ortio, please stand up, please stand up, please stand up?

I really don't think Ortio is one of the utter worst goalies in the NHL, I also don't think he's damn-near the best.

I do think his overall numbers over the last five, situating him right there with Martin Jones and John Gibson, are actually quite accurate for the level of goalie he has the potential to be. I think if the Flames had either of those guys in their stable we'd feel pretty good about the goaltending going forwards.

If this Ortio sticks around for the rest of the year, the .917/.922 5v5 Joni Ortio, I think we should absolutely sign him for another season. He'll come dirt cheap and I'm reasonably sure he'd still be an RFA after a one-year deal. If he maintains this level of play over the rest of the year, say he gets 12 of our last 17 games, I think that would be a representative enough sample to have some confidence going forwards.

[Vulcan]

Yeah, Ortio is playing well and shows promise. The main thing I have with him is to get off to a good start. He does this and we have a pretty good goalie. Kipper used to start slowly too but he'd built up enough good will that we'd stick with him until he began to dominate again. Ortio isn't there yet but yeah, re-sign him and let him compete for the back up job.

[Isikiz]

Pat Steinberg ‏@Fan960Steinberg
#Flames AGM Brad Pascall confirms Joni Ortio is no longer on emergency recall, converted to regular. Team has 2 more regular recalls to use.

I believe Ortio needs 6(?) more starts to become an RFA and not a UFA. I can see him being the backup (maybe 1B?) next year.

[flamesforcup]

any good back ups out there?
Last year it was jones and talbot who seem to be doing good now. Maybe go after MICHAL NEUVIRTH from philly or Anti Raanta (only 26) from the rangers.

[OzSome]

I think Hiller is seeing the writing on the wall. Ortio took his job again and I am sure he'll be back next season. Flames will make sure he gets his qualified # of games in order to stay RFA. Sucks to be Hiller. A few season ago, he was replaced by two rookies as a starter late in the season and in the playoffs. Then last season, Karri Ramo took his job. This season it looks like he will be the starter again especially after they put Ramo on waivers then ended up sending him to AHL. Hiller with his luck got injured and Karri Ramo took his job again and ran with it. Ramo got injured and in comes another Hiller chance to be starter only to be taken away by Joni Ortio in the last few games. Now he's got another competition with Backstrom. Never like the Hiller signing before especially the amount of money. Now I just can't wait for him to sign somewhere else next season. Flames will definitely have Ortio in the mix next season especially if he keeps up with his play. It could either be Ramo-Ortio tandem or Ortio and someone else. I would be ticked off if Treliving re-sign Hiller.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by OzSome

I would be ticked off if Treliving re-sign Hiller.

You won't have to worry about that. Treliving would have to be insane to re-sign Hiller after this season. I will however be pissed off if he re-signs Ramo.

[Iceman90]

I think Raanta will become our next starting goalie. Ortio will back him up.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by Iceman90

I think Raanta will become our next starting goalie. Ortio will back him up.

Isn't that a little risky? A tandem that currently has fewer than 100 combined NHL games. If the Flames do something like that they clearly have no desire to win next season.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Iceman90

I think Raanta will become our next starting goalie. Ortio will back him up.

I don't think Raanta is a good option, he'd get exposed as more than a backup IMO. Too small for my taste.

Much prefer Andersen (ANA), Neuvirth/Mason (PHI), Bishop (TB), Darling (CHI), Reimer (FA) are all better options.

[gunnner]

Originally Posted by flamesforcup

any good back ups out there?
Last year it was jones and talbot who seem to be doing good now. Maybe go after MICHAL NEUVIRTH from philly or Anti Raanta (only 26) from the rangers.

Thomas Greiss has been terrific this year. I wouldnt be shocked if the Islanders turn to him in the playoffs.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by driveway

Since 2/23 Ortio's running a .917 save percentage. Which is an acceptable number for a goalie. It would put him around 30th in the league for goalies who have played at least 120 minutes. Other Goalies with that kind of number are Hellebuyck, Gibson, Reimer, Dubnyk, Halak, Jones, and Markstrom. Not an elite group, but a group of goalies who will win you games.

5v5 he's been alright: .922 which would be about 40th, again Gibson has a similar number; Martin Jones slightly above and Johnson, and Talbot are slightly below. His 4v5 number is a good .870 which would be 22nd over a season, putting him in a neighborhood with Holtby, Jones, Smith and Luongo.

Basically, over the last 5 games (an admittedly very small sample size) Joni Ortio has been almost identical to Martin Jones and very similar to John Gibson other than on the PK, where Gibson is excellent.

If you want to really put on the rose-coloured-glasses and you discount that 3rd period against Ottawa, Ortio's numbers become .930 overall and .972 5v5. Those numbers are extremely good. Really, they're too good to believe, but we're wearing our rose-glasses here so let's enjoy it. A .930 would be the 5th best save percentage in the league. And no goalie with more than 17 games has managed that kind of save percentage this season. That 5v5 number is just nuts, it's .026 better than the best 5v5 mark any goalie who's played more than 120 minutes has put up this year. The only goalies who have surpassed it at all are goalies who have only a single game this season: Roman Will, Kristers Gudlevskis, and Chris Driedger who have faced a total of 31 shots combined. Ortio's maintained that .972 insanity over 106 shots. Again a puny sample size, but actually kinda impressive as a singular feat.

Of course, there's the other Joni Ortio, the one prior to February 23rd. In exactly the same number of games (5) he had numbers that looked like this: .862 overall, .877 5v5, and .800 on the penalty kill. These numbers would be 7th last, 6th last, and 7th last in the league out of any goalies who'd strapped on skates this year. This is astonishingly bad. The only goalies who are down in this neighborhood are guys with 1 or 2 games on the season, and Hiller and Hammond's pk numbers (god I hate Jonas Hiller).

So, will the real Joni Ortio, please stand up, please stand up, please stand up?

I really don't think Ortio is one of the utter worst goalies in the NHL, I also don't think he's damn-near the best.

I do think his overall numbers over the last five, situating him right there with Martin Jones and John Gibson, are actually quite accurate for the level of goalie he has the potential to be. I think if the Flames had either of those guys in their stable we'd feel pretty good about the goaltending going forwards.

If this Ortio sticks around for the rest of the year, the .917/.922 5v5 Joni Ortio, I think we should absolutely sign him for another season. He'll come dirt cheap and I'm reasonably sure he'd still be an RFA after a one-year deal. If he maintains this level of play over the rest of the year, say he gets 12 of our last 17 games, I think that would be a representative enough sample to have some confidence going forwards.

You're cherry picking a bit much here. I don't disagree with ignoring the first part of the season - for a position where confidence plays such a huge role that had to be the worst possible environment, so yeah I give him a pass. But if you're just comparing stats to other goalies you would need to remove their extenuating circumstances too to make it apples to apples.

For the latest stretch - A) it's very short and B) every goalie has games like Ottawa so you just can't remove those goals. I'm sure you could pick five games from most goalies, remove a bad period, and they look like world-beaters.

I'm an Ortio fan and hope he is competing for the starter role next year, not just the backup, but I don't think these numbers are that enlightening yet.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by edslunch

You're cherry picking a bit much here. I don't disagree with ignoring the first part of the season - for a position where confidence plays such a huge role that had to be the worst possible environment, so yeah I give him a pass. But if you're just comparing stats to other goalies you would need to remove their extenuating circumstances too to make it apples to apples.

He's not cherry picking. He actually devoted a whole paragraph to showing how in that stretch Ortio was one of the worst goalies in the league.

The point, I believe, was actually quite well thought out. It is fair to compare between Ortio's terrible start and his recent call up, and to declare that the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by driveway

Awesomeness

What an excellent post. Thank you for taking the time to piece that together.

The 'eye test' certainly shows a completely different goalie wearing #37 from the start of the season to now, but I had no idea (Ottawa aside) he was that dominant 5v5.

He FEELS unbeatable 5v5 most nights recently, and that certainly backs up a gut feeling.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

Isn't that a little risky? A tandem that currently has fewer than 100 combined NHL games. If the Flames do something like that they clearly have no desire to win next season.

Martin Jones. 34GP coming into this season. I guess the SHarks clearly had no desire to win this season...........

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

He's not cherry picking. He actually devoted a whole paragraph to showing how in that stretch Ortio was one of the worst goalies in the league.

The point, I believe, was actually quite well thought out. It is fair to compare between Ortio's terrible start and his recent call up, and to declare that the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

The other concern I have about assessing Ortio's current play is due to the fact that the Flames have no chance to make the playoffs so the pressure is off in meaningless games. Of course one could also argue that he is playing to salvage a career and that there would still be pressure.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

The other concern I have about assessing Ortio's current play is due to the fact that the Flames have no chance to make the playoffs so the pressure is off in meaningless games. Of course one could also argue that he is playing to salvage a career and that there would still be pressure.

Was there pressure January 2015 when his 4 game win streak pretty much saved our playoff hopes on the heels of Ramo/Hiller dropping three straight? I'd say so.

[DJones]

Is it crazy to think that a Ramo/Ortio tandem may be good enough for next year?

Think of how cheap it would be