McKenzie: Is there any doubt Russell would at least get 5 yrs x $5.5 million as UFA?

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

and yet the Flames lead the league in cap spent on d-men.... this year and are adding another 3M year when Gio's contract kicks in.

for next year just Gio Hamilton and Brodie add up to 17.15 M.

The median of positional spending on defense this year is around 17M.

The average NHL team spends 27% of their cap on defense. on a 72 M cap that comes to 19M.

To get to anywhere near normal on cap distribution the Flames need to get rid of Wideman, Russell, Smid and Engelland and replace them with 4 guys making close to the league minimum.

This is very similar to the situation the Flames were in when they had Phanuef Bouwmeester and Regehr and Sarich. It took a run of 5 years with no playoffs spending to the cap with 2 HOF players in their prime to get out of that sorry situation.

You think a #4 defenseman should make close to the league minimum? Good luck with that.

[killer_carlson]

I think it means that one or two of our D propsects has to grab that #4 role sooner than later.

[Bingo]

To me Russell has become my poster boy for my travels into analytics and where data and stats need to be in comparison to what you actually see.

We see what we see? But do we see it with biases? Stats are true, you can't debate that, but do they sometimes get over used because of sample size, or situation, or off years, fluke years. Do they cover everything?

Russell in Calgary is a beast and a great defenseman to many. He's a go to guy worth $5.5M to McKenzie. And he's one of the worst possession players in the game to analytics guys.

It's like the preseason when I got in a spat with a guy from Toronto about Calgary's goaltending. I said trade Hiller because Ramo is the better goaltending. He hammered me with stats as to why I was an idiot to which I replied the eye test doesn't support that. Again I was essentially called an idiot. In the end I think we can all agree that Ramo won out.

So with differing opinions on Russell I think you need to find that middle ground, less money, and a reasonable role going forward.

At the time though there's too much view about the guy being a complete warrior not to take advantage of his over hyped value and deal him. But part of me hopes he doesn't find the $5M pay day in the first 5 days of July and then resigns in Calgary for $3M per season.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I think it means that one or two of our D propsects has to grab that #4 role sooner than later.

IMO the best chance of getting a young guy into our #4 spot soon would be to draft Jacob Chychrun this year. His skating, size, skill, physical play combo means he can jump in right away I would think. Andersson and Kylington are both longer shots to be ready next year but they could surprise. I certainly wouldn't count on it.

We don't have to spend close to leave avg on defense. The Hamilton trade upset the salary structure but I'm sure at least one of Russell, Smid, Engelland and Wideman will be gone either this deadline and/or offseason.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

You think a #4 defenseman should make close to the league minimum? Good luck with that.

It is the reality of the cap era... The #4 guy playing with any one of 3 guys that s/b norris candidates should be able to step in .... Wotherspoon, Kylington, Hickey or Andersen or Schlemko/Diaz.


Basically every playoff team has at least a #4 by toi that is making less than 2.2M.

Anaheim has 2 Lindholm and Vatanen

Dallas has Demers at 2.2M but highest guy is at 4.6

Chicago has van Riemsdyck @925k

Florida Ekblad 925k, Petrovic 1M

LA Mcnabb @ 650k and now Schenn @1.8

Wash Schmidt 825k

Boston went with Kevin Miller at 800k rather than Hamilton,


It is only the Flames that have 4-7 > 2M


Russell will not get 4M to be a #4 d-man on any team outside the Flames

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

IMO the best chance of getting a young guy into our #4 spot soon would be to draft Jacob Chychrun this year. His skating, size, skill, physical play combo means he can jump in right away I would think. Andersson and Kylington are both longer shots to be ready next year but they could surprise. I certainly wouldn't count on it.

We don't have to spend close to leave avg on defense. The Hamilton trade upset the salary structure but I'm sure at least one of Russell, Smid, Engelland and Wideman will be gone either this deadline and/or offseason.

If it only one of these guys or even 2, the Flames will still be in at least the top 3 highest paid d-men corps in the league. Gio goes up by 3M.

[heep223]

Boston offered Hamilton $5M+

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It is the reality of the cap era... The #4 guy playing with any one of 3 guys that s/b norris candidates should be able to step in .... Wotherspoon, Kylington, Hickey or Andersen or Schlemko/Diaz.


Basically every playoff team has at least a #4 by toi that is making less than 2.2M.

Anaheim has 2 Lindholm and Vatanen

Dallas has Demers at 2.2M but highest guy is at 4.6

Chicago has van Riemsdyck @925k

Florida Ekblad 925k, Petrovic 1M

LA Mcnabb @ 650k and now Schenn @1.8

Wash Schmidt 825k

Boston went with Kevin Miller at 800k rather than Hamilton,


It is only the Flames that have 4-7 > 2M


Russell will not get 4M to be a #4 d-man on any team outside the Flames

Between Hiller, Russell, Wideman, Raymond, Smid, Engelland, Jones, Hudler and Stajan, there is approximately $33m in contracts expiring before 2017/18 (Stajan is 18/19). You're telling me that the Flames can't re-direct $4m of that into a #4 D otherwise the team is essentially doomed to mediocrity?

I'm interested to find out where you think that $33m will go exactly? I see about $15m-18m of that going to Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett. Another $2m to add to what Ramo makes now with a backup.

That leaves $13m-18m. You sure we can't spend any of that on defense? Are we signing Stamkos or something? LOL, Stamkos AND another top 6 forward perhaps? Cap space is only an asset if you use it (intelligently) and I really don't see any of our young defensemen pushing for it anytime soon. I would love to be wrong about that though.

Like it or not, a team's bottom 6 forwards and bottom 3 defense aren't going to be comprised of rookies on ELCs and veteran reclamation projects, that's just not how it works. I guarantee a few million will be spent on a true #4 guy unless a guy like Kylington or Andersson really surprises. And you know what? It won't be the end of the world.

I agree that you shouldn't spend much more than $3m-4m on your bottom 3 defensemen combined, but a good #4 is very important to a team's success. If you don't have a young kid ready to take that spot, you will have to pay a veteran what the market dictates, or you'll have a below average group of defensemen. We don't have a young kid ready to take that spot IMO, so get ready for that money to be spent on someone who can.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Between Hiller, Russell, Wideman, Raymond, Smid, Engelland, Jones, Hudler and Stajan, there is approximately $33m in contracts expiring before 2017/18 (Stajan is 18/19). You're telling me that the Flames can't re-direct $4m of that into a #4 D otherwise the team is essentially doomed to mediocrity?

I'm interested to find out where you think that $33m will go exactly? I see about $15m-18m of that going to Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett. Another $2m to add to what Ramo makes now with a backup.

That leaves $13m-18m. You sure we can't spend any of that on defense? Are we signing Stamkos or something? LOL, Stamkos AND another top 6 forward perhaps? Cap space is only an asset if you use it (intelligently) and I really don't see any of our young defensemen pushing for it anytime soon. I would love to be wrong about that though.

Like it or not, a team's bottom 6 forwards and bottom 3 defense aren't going to be comprised of rookies on ELCs and veteran reclamation projects, that's just not how it works. I guarantee a few million will be spent on a true #4 guy unless a guy like Kylington or Andersson really surprises. And you know what? It won't be the end of the world.

I agree that you shouldn't spend much more than $3m-4m on your bottom 3 defensemen combined, but a good #4 is very important to a team's success. If you don't have a young kid ready to take that spot, you will have to pay a veteran what the market dictates, or you'll have a below average group of defensemen. We don't have a young kid ready to take that spot IMO, so get ready for that money to be spent on someone who can.

The Flames are already close to the cap for next season and will not have room to sign Russell or Hudler. I am pretty sure that Stamkos is not sitting out a year to wait for the Flames to get some cap room.


The point that I have been making is that the Flames have to be good enough in their top 3 that they can fit in a value d-man as #4.

The Flames top 3 at 17M is the second highest paid top-3 in the league...at least for the next 2-3 years.

Minnesota 15.6
Nashville 14.5
Chicago 15.4
LA 15.0

All have legitimate multi award winners anchoring their top 3. any of Weber, Suter, Keith and Doughty get picked for the Canadian Olympic team for instance, ahead of any of our big 3.

The only team that is spending more on D-men is Montreal at 20.2M for their top 3 and 4M for their #4... How is that working out? Dale Wiese and spare part forward from the Ducks playoff run Fleischmann is in their top 6-7 forward.

The rest of the teams are going with concept that a 5M+ d-man should make a 2M d-man look great. Look at Brodie and Engelland from the best 2-3 months in the last 10 years of the Flames for example.

[nemanja2306]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The Flames are already close to the cap for next season and will not have room to sign Russell or Hudler. I am pretty sure that Stamkos is not sitting out a year to wait for the Flames to get some cap room.


The point that I have been making is that the Flames have to be good enough in their top 3 that they can fit in a value d-man as #4.

The Flames top 3 at 17M is the second highest paid top-3 in the league...at least for the next 2-3 years.

Minnesota 15.6
Nashville 14.5
Chicago 15.4
LA 15.0

All have legitimate multi award winners anchoring their top 3. any of Weber, Suter, Keith and Doughty get picked for the Canadian Olympic team for instance, ahead of any of our big 3.

The only team that is spending more on D-men is Montreal at 20.2M for their top 3 and 4M for their #4... How is that working out? Dale Wiese and spare part forward from the Ducks playoff run Fleischmann is in their top 6-7 forward.

The rest of the teams are going with concept that a 5M+ d-man should make a 2M d-man look great. Look at Brodie and Engelland from the best 2-3 months in the last 10 years of the Flames for example.

And they have the 2nd best (behind Nashville) top 3 in the league. So, what's your point? The guys are getting paid what they deserve.

[dino7c]

no kidding the Flames top three are certainly not a problem...obviously they have some overpaid 5-6 guys it wasn't by design. They team was in a much different spot when those guys got paid. Over the next few seasons as the Flames hopefully become contenders they will have some younger guys in the bottom pairings

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by nemanja2306

And they have the 2nd best (behind Nashville) top 3 in the league. So, what's your point? The guys are getting paid what they deserve.

They haven't performed as though they're in the top 5. Heck, top ten

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

They haven't performed as though they're in the top 5. Heck, top ten

the top 2 certainly have, Hamilton has been up and down...beyond that is where it has been iffy to say the least.

Offensively the Flames D is 2nd after a slow start and missing #7 for a month

[nemanja2306]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

They haven't performed as though they're in the top 5. Heck, top ten

Depends on how you look at it.

They haven't at the start of the year for sure. But Brodie was injured, Hamilton was settling in to a new team and Gio hadn't played a game in 6-7 months.

But they've been awesome for a while now. Top 5 for sure.

[Enoch Root]

When talking contracts, context is important.

Sure the top 3 cost $17.15M. But they are all under contract for 4 more years after this one. Over that time, you'll see more and more teams pass them in that regard.

At the other end, you've got $14.266M for the 4-7 guys, but none of those contracts survive past next season.

I would expect one signing for a #4 guys, with 3 young guys, by the 16/17 season. Let's say $3-5M signing, plus 3 more guys at maybe $3-4M.

We'll have an excellent defense at a decent price - something around $25M, which is $3M less than now for a better lineup 3 years from now.

I think things are setting up beautifully.

[Flash Walken]

nm

[killer_carlson]

We need Smid and Engellend to have tremendous games over the next 2 weeks.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

When talking contracts, context is important.

Sure the top 3 cost $17.15M. But they are all under contract for 4 more years after this one. Over that time, you'll see more and more teams pass them in that regard.

At the other end, you've got $14.266M for the 4-7 guys, but none of those contracts survive past next season.

I would expect one signing for a #4 guys, with 3 young guys, by the 16/17 season. Let's say $3-5M signing, plus 3 more guys at maybe $3-4M.

We'll have an excellent defense at a decent price - something around $25M, which is $3M less than now for a better lineup 3 years from now.

I think things are setting up beautifully.

Well said. We've got a young core (Brodie/Hamilton) locked up with a hard worker leader veteran who's still got it (Gio) for quite a while at a decent price IMO.

Smid and Engelland are moveable if need be. Even Wideman could perhaps be moved. Russell could be moved or re-signed.

Andersson, Kylington, Hickey look promising. Secondary pieces and longer shots in Nakladal, Ollas-Mattson, Wotherspoon, Sieloff, Gilmour, Rafikov, Morrison, etc.

Depending where we pick this draft a d-man may be the Best Player Available. Chychrun would complement our group really well IMO. Juolevi and Sergachev both look really promising as well. Any of those 3 could join Brodie, Hamilton and Gio to give us an elite top 4 within a couple years.

I think our defense is looking very promising as it is. If we pick one of the top d-men this draft I think we may be pretty much set for the long term.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

They haven't performed as though they're in the top 5. Heck, top ten

Gio and Brodie have been very good minus that start to the season. In addition, Hamilton has really come around since November.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well said. We've got a young core (Brodie/Hamilton) locked up with a hard worker leader veteran who's still got it (Gio) for quite a while at a decent price IMO.

Smid and Engelland are moveable if need be. Even Wideman could perhaps be moved. Russell could be moved or re-signed.

Andersson, Kylington, Hickey look promising. Secondary pieces and longer shots in Nakladal, Ollas-Mattson, Wotherspoon, Sieloff, Gilmour, Rafikov, Morrison, etc.

Depending where we pick this draft a d-man may be the Best Player Available. Chychrun would complement our group really well IMO. Juolevi and Sergachev both look really promising as well. Any of those 3 could join Brodie, Hamilton and Gio to give us an elite top 4 within a couple years.

I think our defense is looking very promising as it is. If we pick one of the top d-men this draft I think we may be pretty much set for the long term.

I would prefer the flames chase Lucic in free agency for forward scoring and attempt to draft the best defenseman they can in the draft.

Let that guy develop for a couple of years and then do what you can to develop size on the wing in those years to hope you have a rounded out roster by year 3 of a Lucic contract.