I'm calling it now, The Flames will be dancing this spring

[troutman]

I'm amazed, but now I think they will do it. An incredible December has the Flames back in contention. I would not have bet $ on it before - now I would. The team is playing better and the division is weak.

I don't think this site understands the divisional aspect of the playoffs, but we have finally passed EDM, AZ and VAN.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

87 points might be enough!

[Huntingwhale]

Just goes to show that you're never really out of it, until you're actually out. I can't believe 10 games in and some people were ready to throw in the towel. Shame shame shame!! You aren't out until the math says you are.

[burn_this_city]

A historically bad Pacific division has really helped their chances. If we were in the Central it would be a different story.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by troutman

I'm amazed, but now I think they will do it. An incredible December has the Flames back in contention. I would not have bet $ on it before - now I would. The team is playing better and the division is weak.

I don't think this site understands the divisional aspect of the playoffs, but we have finally passed EDM, AZ and VAN.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

87 points might be enough!

Weird, the fine print seems to indicate that the model understands the playoff format, but currently it is showing that there are 6 central teams and 2 pacific teams in.

I wonder how it all reconciles.

16 teams will qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The format is a set bracket that is largely division-based with wild cards. The top three teams in each division will make up the first 12 teams in the playoffs. The remaining four spots will be filled by the next two highest-placed finishers in each conference, based on regular-season record and regardless of division. It is possible for one division in each conference to send five teams to the postseason while the other sends just three.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

A historically bad Pacific division has really helped their chances. If we were in the Central it would be a different story.

The Pacific division doesn't have a long history, so that's not saying much.

[HotHotHeat]

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/14...-turned-corner

Nice.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by troutman

I'm amazed, but now I think they will do it. An incredible December has the Flames back in contention. I would not have bet $ on it before - now I would. The team is playing better and the division is weak.

I don't think this site understands the divisional aspect of the playoffs, but we have finally passed EDM, AZ and VAN.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html

87 points might be enough!

I like this site. And I like the pure mathematics of each team's playoff chances - no bias there.

But they currently have SJ at 76% and Calgary at 38%. Something is clearly wrong with the model right now.

(and it isn't strength of schedule - as someone posted in another thread (CagedGreat maybe), the Flames schedule is actually pretty soft the rest of the way... well over half their games against the bottom half of the league)

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I like this site. And I like the pure mathematics of each team's playoff chances - no bias there.

But they currently have SJ at 76% and Calgary at 38%. Something is clearly wrong with the model right now.

(and it isn't strength of schedule - as someone posted in another thread (CagedGreat maybe), the Flames schedule is actually pretty soft the rest of the way... well over half their games against the bottom half of the league)

It actually is due to their weighted formula. When you go by the pure 50/50 numbers, San Jose is 58.6 and Calgary 52.8

Originally Posted by SportsClubStats

The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.

[greentree]

Best thread going!

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I like this site. And I like the pure mathematics of each team's playoff chances - no bias there.

But they currently have SJ at 76% and Calgary at 38%. Something is clearly wrong with the model right now.

(and it isn't strength of schedule - as someone posted in another thread (CagedGreat maybe), the Flames schedule is actually pretty soft the rest of the way... well over half their games against the bottom half of the league)

It's because of the goal differential.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/14...-turned-corner

Nice.

Wow. Level-headed and accurate analysis from national media guys - always wondered what that looked like.

(Elliot Friedman not withstanding)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

It actually is due to their weighted formula. When you go by the pure 50/50 numbers, San Jose is 58.6 and Calgary 52.8

Quote:
Originally Posted by SportsClubStats
The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win

Yes, except that SJ and Calgary have essentially identical records, with Calgary having a better record at home and SJ better on the road. Those things should wash out. 76% to 38% is two completely different things.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

It's because of the goal differential.

This makes sense. However, it is really the only difference between the two teams right now, so I would argue that it is over-stated.