2015-2016 Blue Jays Off-Season Thread

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

^^ The Jays won the AL East with a rotation of Hutchison (opening day!), Dickey, Estrada, Buehrle and Norris/Sanchez/Doubront for well over half the year. And that was with Dickey off to a horrid start so even if he pitches below average you're still looking better off next year with:

Stroman, Dickey, Hutch, Sanchez, ?

And that's worst-case scenario.

That would be one of the worst rotations in baseball IMO.

If they have any desire to repeat as AL East champs, a couple decent starters will have to be brought in. There simply aren't enough quality internal options to fill out an above average rotation.

[Caged Great]

The Jays need to at least have this

1. Stroman
2. Zimmerman/Kazmir type guy to replace Buherle with someone that is slightly better
3. Estrada or another decent #3.
4. Dickey
5. Hutchison/other internal options like Hendricks, Sanchez or Osuna

I am leery of bring Estrada back due to his peripherals being mediocre. Using a corollary to the NHL, Estrada had a Calgary Flames (2014-15) like season. significantly better results than what his talent level is. His advanced stats show he should be a #4/5 guy really. He might repeat, he might not. If you could get someone that is a #3 for more or less the same cost that has a good track record, then that wouldn't be a bad option.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

^^ The Jays won the AL East with a rotation of Hutchison (opening day!), Dickey, Estrada, Buehrle and Norris/Sanchez/Doubront for well over half the year. And that was with Dickey off to a horrid start so even if he pitches below average you're still looking better off next year with:

Stroman, Dickey, Hutch, Sanchez, ?

And that's worst-case scenario.

That rotation has the Blue Jays at a .500 level despite a record setting offensive pace. Without the offence that rotation would have the Jays with a Phillies type record. That rotation was the worst in baseball without question. Hutchinson has like 13 wins despite an era that floated with 7.00

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

That rotation was the worst in baseball without question.

Giant hyperbole. The Jays Pitching staff was collectively 13th in the major leagues by fWAR. That's decidedly "middle of the road" rather then "worst".

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Giant hyperbole. The Jays Pitching staff was collectively 13th in the major leagues by fWAR. That's decidedly "middle of the road" rather then "worst".

That was at the end of the year. Until mid July they were around the bottom of the American league.

Dickey went 8-1 with something close to 2.00 ERA, they added Price, and got some quality start out of Stroman at the end.

Had they continued with Doubrant/Hutchinson/Another plug (Scott Copeland/Matt Boyd), they would have remained at the bottom.

[GirlySports]

the pitching free agent list looks really uninspiring.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

the pitching free agent list looks really uninspiring.

Yup, it's essential the Jays resign Price and Estrada. Price is likely the only Ace who would consider Toronto, and I'd say value for money, Estrada is the best of the 2nd tier pitching free agents.

I didn't realize Mark Lowe was a free agent. Our bullpen is looking really scary. I hope they take a long look at O'Day.

[Jiggy_12]

Jays have picked up Dickey's option

[kmart]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Yup, it's essential the Jays resign Price and Estrada. Price is likely the only Ace who would consider Toronto, and I'd say value for money, Estrada is the best of the 2nd tier pitching free agents.

I didn't realize Mark Lowe was a free agent. Our bullpen is looking really scary. I hope they take a long look at O'Day.

Really? The guy hates Bautista with a passion.

[Harry Lime]

Pitchers (worth looking at seriously) in the 28M-32M range
Grienke
Price

Pitchers in the 18M-20M range
Zimmerman
Samardzija
Gallardo
Cueto

Pitchers in the 14M-16M range
Doug Fister

Pitchers in the 10M-12M range
Estrada
Anderson
Kennedy
Lohse
Kazmir

Pitchers in the 6M-8M range
Iwakuma
Happ

This is clearly not a comprehensive list, and some of these guys will be picked up by their existing teams. The point of jotting some of these names down is to ask this question. Would you rather have one Price, or spread that money around to two lesser, but serviceable players?

Keep in mind that if less money is spent on one ace pitcher, it's easier to follow the KC model and build a pretty impressive bullpen. Some options next year would be Sean Marshall, Darren O'day, Bobby Parnell, Shawn Kelley, Burke Badenhop, Mark Lowe, Andrew Bailey, or Mike Adams. Having more money to spend could land anywhere from 2 to 4 of these arms.

Note that all possible prices are wild guesses in order to ask a specific question.

[Otto-matic]

The Toronto Blue Jays have exercised the options on Jose Bautista ($14 million), R.A. Dickey ($12 million) and Edwin Encarnacion ($10 million).

[Roof-Daddy]

No surprise at all exercising those options.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by kmart

Really? The guy hates Bautista with a passion.

Is there anyone outside the Blue Jays that doesn't hate Bautista? Mute point anyways, hate quickly goes away when you pull on the jersey.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

No surprise at all exercising those options.

Bautista and Edwin are no brainers. Well below market. Dickey is questionable. I'd prefer they let him walk and used that money on someone else, but given the state of their current rotation and the propensity of free agents to avoid Toronto, probably not a risk they could realistically take.

[kmart]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

Is there anyone outside the Blue Jays that doesn't hate Bautista? Mute point anyways, hate quickly goes away when you pull on the jersey.

There's something about the guy throwing at Bautista more than once, that doesn't bode well for team chemistry or Bautista's trust in management. We've all seen what a guy like Papelbon can do to a team's chemistry.

I'm all for adding guys that don't like Bautista at this moment in time, but not guys who have chucked at Bautista multiple times in the past. That kind of relationship doesn't bode well for team chemistry especially over a 162 game season.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by kmart

There's something about the guy throwing at Bautista more than once, that doesn't bode well for team chemistry or Bautista's trust in management. We've all seen what a guy like Papelbon can do to a team's chemistry.

I'm all for adding guys that don't like Bautista at this moment in time, but not guys who have chucked at Bautista multiple times in the past. That kind of relationship doesn't bode well for team chemistry especially over a 162 game season.

I think Bautista is more the Papplebon in your analogy, than O'Day is. I'm sure they'd ask Bautista his thoughts before extending an offer. O"Day wouldn't sign there either if it was going to be an issue.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheAlpineOracle

I didn't realize Mark Lowe was a free agent. Our bullpen is looking really scary.

As is we'd have a bullpen of...

Aaron Sanchez
Brett Cecil
Liam Hendriks
Aaron Loup
Ryan Tepera
Bo Schultz
Pat Venditte

... that's assuming that Osuna moves to the rotation and nobody else is acquired. That's certainly not ideal but there are some interesting hurlers in there. I'm confident in Sanchez and Cecil (as bullpen arms), Hendriks was a revelation last year, Venditte always has the platoon advantage, Loup had his struggles but reduce his role to Loogy and the source of all his struggles last year disappears (namely a spike in power numbers by RH hitters... lefties slugged .362 against him while RH slugged .510. for perspective every RH he faced turned into Jose Bautista and every lefties was Ryan Goins). It shouldn't be hard (or expensive) to find upgrades on Tepera & Schultz.

[kmart]

There is no way that the Blue Jay's keep both Price and Estrada. Signing Estrada will take away almost half their cap space and I'm assuming that Price will cost 25 + mill. If anything Price is gone and we will sign 1 or 2 starters on the free agent market.

To me, I expect the the rotation to look like:

1. Stro
2. Dickey
3. Estrada/ FA starter
4. Sanchez
5. Hutchison

It's something that I'm okay with, especially with the offence that we have. The only way it looks different from that rotation is if Sharpio chooses the trade away Tulo for another starter.

[TheAlpineOracle]

Originally Posted by kmart

There is no way that the Blue Jay's keep both Price and Estrada. Signing Estrada will take away almost half their cap space and I'm assuming that Price will cost 25 + mill. If anything Price is gone and we will sign 1 or 2 starters on the free agent market.

To me, I expect the the rotation to look like:

1. Stro
2. Dickey
3. Estrada/ FA starter
4. Sanchez
5. Hutchison

It's something that I'm okay with, especially with the offence that we have. The only way it looks different from that rotation is if Sharpio chooses the trade away Tulo for another starter.

Not many people are going to be willing to take on Tulo's contract, and the ones who are, won't be giving up much for it. The fact that we gave them Hoffman to take on that contract still has me a little upset. The last 3 years of that contract are insane.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by kmart

To me, I expect the the rotation to look like:

1. Stro
2. Dickey
3. Estrada/ FA starter
4. Sanchez
5. Hutchison

Yeah, that's basically what I expect as well (Except that I think/hope that it'd be Osuna in the rotation).

Sanchez as Starter: .240avg .346obp .392slg 5.73K/9 5.05BB/9
Sanchez as Reliever: .176avg .245obp .222slg 6.49K/9 2.39BB/9

The bullpen is the place for Sanchez.