Magic Numbers Thread

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

Also, the first tiebreaker is in fact ROW (not points from games between the two teams).

When dying4acup says "4 more ROW wins than the Flames", that refers to over the course of the rest of the season (to beat the Flames current 3-ROW advantage). Not 4 more in total, because you are correct, that's now impossible.

The more I think about this the more my head hurt, I think I'm gonna just cheering for the Flames to get more total point than the Kings. First step, cheer for them to beat the Blues on Thurs

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

We could also win games in the shootout to muddy the waters even more. There are just so many things that would have to go in a precise way that the odds of it happening are probably in the hundreds or thousandths of a percent.

You are way overthinking this. LA going 4-2 (most likely way a LA tiebreak win happens) isn't far fetched. Calgary gaining exactly 5 non ROW points is less likely, but certainly far from impossible. Put those together, you are probably between 1-5%. And that's only scenarios in which Calgary and LA end up tied. Overall, less likely.

Certainly plausible, but not likely. Still likely enough that one can't assume Calgary will definately win a tiebreaker.

[dying4acup]

It doesn't even truly matter. A 4-0-1 record gets us in no matter what. And in a divisional position.

Who we play and where doesn't even matter.

And that's all assuming perfect records for the Kings and jets.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

It doesn't even truly matter. A 4-0-1 record gets us in no matter what. And in a divisional position.

Who we play and where doesn't even matter.

And that's all assuming perfect records for the Kings and jets.

4-0-1 gets us into playoffs for sure with Winnipeg's loss today, but not guaranteed to be a divisional spot, if the OT loss is against LA, and LA wins all of there games, and enough goes on LAs favour to win the tiebreaker.

[dying4acup]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

4-0-1 gets us into playoffs for sure with Winnipeg's loss today, but not guaranteed to be a divisional spot, if the OT loss is against LA, and LA wins all of there games, and enough goes on LAs favour to win the tiebreaker.

Sorry, you are right.

Sooooo.... We can clinch as early as Phoenix, right?

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

4-0-1 gets us into playoffs for sure with Winnipeg's loss today, but not guaranteed to be a divisional spot, if the OT loss is against LA, and LA wins all of there games, and enough goes on LAs favour to win the tiebreaker.

No, there are many (unlikely) scenarios of LA winning the tiebreaker, but they all hinge on the Flames having less than 4 ROW, less than 3 if the Flames don't lose the game against the Kings in regulation (as the 4-0-1 record would suggest). The only scenario with a 4-0-1 record and losing the tiebreaker is if 3 of those wins were shootout wins, allowing Kings to potentially both tie us for points and lead us in ROW. Given that we have a whopping 4 shootout wins all year so far, I'm going to say that will not happen.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

4-0-1 gets us into playoffs for sure with Winnipeg's loss today, but not guaranteed to be a divisional spot, if the OT loss is against LA, and LA wins all of there games, and enough goes on LAs favour to win the tiebreaker.

If we go 4-0-1 we for sure get the divisional spot.

After looking at it we could go 3-1-1 and LA going 5-0 and we still win the tie breaker as we would have 41 ROW's to their 40.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by T@T

If we go 4-0-1 we for sure get the divisional spot.

After looking at it we could go 3-1-1 and LA going 5-0 and we still win the tie breaker as we would have 41 ROW's to their 40.

The only caveat is SO wins (non-ROW 2 point games). They don't happen often and are not actually a real threat here to happen 3 times in the next 5 games, but theoretically we still could not clinch a divisional spot with a 4-0-1 record.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

Sorry, you are right.

Sooooo.... We can clinch as early as Phoenix, right?

Interestingly, if memory serves, we clinched against Phoenix in 2004 too.

[dying4acup]

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

The only caveat is SO wins (non-ROW 2 point games). They don't happen often and are not actually a real threat here to happen 3 times in the next 5 games, but theoretically we still could not clinch a divisional spot with a 4-0-1 record.

Yes we would. Winnipeg could not match our ROW no matter what they do. 4-0-1 gets us in no matter what. Divisional spot is contingent on LA.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by T@T

If we go 4-0-1 we for sure get the divisional spot.

After looking at it we could go 3-1-1 and LA going 5-0 and we still win the tie breaker as we would have 41 ROW's to their 40.

LA has 6 games left.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

Yes we would. Winnipeg could not match our ROW no matter what they do. 4-0-1 gets us in no matter what. Divisional spot is contingent on LA.

Correct, I specifically said divisional spot.

[dying4acup]

Originally Posted by PugnaciousIntern

Correct, I specifically said divisional spot.

Sorry, I mis-read. If Clemens can mis-remember....

[Perogy Man]

Lets assume that LA will win against Edm on thursday (99.9% chance of that). That would leave LA with 90 points with 5 games left (Flames hold the tie breaker). WPG has 91 points with 5 games left. Flames also have 5 games to go.
If LA goes 4-1-0, that would leave them with 98. If Flames go 3-1-1, that would leave us with 98. Is that enough to beat out LA for a playoff spot?
I guess what I'm asking is that if we tie LA for total points at the end of all this, are we in??

[playmaker]

Originally Posted by Perogy Man

Lets assume that LA will win against Edm on thursday (99.9% chance of that). That would leave LA with 90 points with 5 games left (Flames hold the tie breaker). WPG has 91 points with 5 games left. Flames also have 5 games to go.
If LA goes 4-1-0, that would leave them with 98. If Flames go 3-1-1, that would leave us with 98. Is that enough to beat out LA for a playoff spot?
I guess what I'm asking is that if we tie LA for total points at the end of all this, are we in??

WPG has 90 points

[Perogy Man]

Originally Posted by playmaker

WPG has 90 points

Yes, thanks, WPG has 90 points. I believe our battle is with LA primarily, correct? Do we also hold the tie breaker with WPG?

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Perogy Man

Lets assume that LA will win against Edm on thursday (99.9% chance of that). That would leave LA with 90 points with 5 games left (Flames hold the tie breaker). WPG has 91 points with 5 games left. Flames also have 5 games to go.
If LA goes 4-1-0, that would leave them with 98. If Flames go 3-1-1, that would leave us with 98. Is that enough to beat out LA for a playoff spot?
I guess what I'm asking is that if we tie LA for total points at the end of all this, are we in??

As the last page or two shows, that's a complicated answer. And frankly, probably not one worth worrying until both teams have played at least another game (that exponentially reduces possibilities. 5 and 6 games worth of possibilities is too much).

But unless we suddenly start winning a whole lot of games in shootouts, and/or get a handful of loser points while LA gets ROWs, chances are we will have the tiebreaker.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

Sorry, I mis-read. If Clemens can mis-remember....

No worries

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Perogy Man

Yes, thanks, WPG has 90 points. I believe our battle is with LA primarily, correct? Do we also hold the tie breaker with WPG?

Yup. You'll find the tie-breaking procedure at the bottom-right of this page http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm

[Perogy Man]

Thanks for the link to the tie breaking rules. It is more complicated than I thought. I want the Flames to make it. I think they will!