[Rumour] Flames closing in on extension with Russell (R.Millons)

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by Anduril

The biggest names on defense include:

Niskanen, Markov, Boyle, MacDonald, Gilbert, Timonen, Meszaros, Giradi, and Nikitin.


Pretty underwhelming.

Good luck on luring any of these defensemen to a rebuilding team.

[jesters91]

I've been pleasantly surprised with Russell this year. I'll take a stab and say 4 years 11 million (2.75 cap hit).

[macrov]

I'll go with 6 years at 20 mln.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk

[Wastedyouth]

8 years 80 mirrion

[formulate]

Some numbers on Russell, for those interested in his performance. This isn't directed specifically towards Ashasx, but he would do well to take a look, especially after his 'twitter fight' with Millions. Bit of a long read, but hopefully will confirm what we're seeing and open a few eyes.

Goals per game: 0.108. Second among Flames defense behind Gio's 0.219.
Shots per game: 1.78. Third among Flames defense behind Gio (2.53) and Wideman (2.47). His shooting % is clearly much higher than Wideman's; something that could level out, potentially bringing their goal totals closer together.
Points per game: 0.459. Second to Gio's 0.688, slightly ahead of Wideman's 0.441.
+/- (yes, but still): +1. Ahead of Gio's -2, Wideman's -13, Brodie's -15 etc.
Shot blocks/game: 2.97. Butler and Smid are at 2.58 but nobody else is even close. The argument against using shot blocks as a positive stat is it sometimes means that player is spending too much time in their own zone. As I will show later, this is definitely the case for Butler and Smid, but not so much for Russell.

*For anyone who's blood pressure rises from hearing about 'advanced' stats, 9/10 doctors recommend you stop here*

Possession, measured by relative corsi. This number, expressed here as a %, measures shot attempt differential (a proxy for possession). The relative part means it shows how much better/worse the team gets when that player is not on the ice.
Russell: +3.6% (team is 3.6% better with him). Third behind Gio (3.9) and Brodie (3.7). All other regulars (Wideman included) are negatives in this category. Note: all of the d-men are in the red when it comes to possession, these numbers are relative to the rest of the team.

Quality of competition (or 'hardness of minutes', if you will).
QofC, corsi (average corsi of opponent): 1.534. 3rd, behind Gio and Brodie.
QofC, relative corsi: 0.389. 4th, behind Gio, Brodie, Smid.
These numbers are a rate per 60 minutes. Basically, Russell's average opponent is on the ice for 1.5 shot attempts more for his team than the other team, per 60 minutes. Clearly, Russell is playing 2nd pairing minutes in terms of difficulty. Gio and Brodie are obviously the shut-down guys against top lines (and performing admirably, for the most part!)

Zone starts: 55.8% offensive. Measured by starts in the offensive zone, divided by total of offensive and defensive (neural starts aren't counted). This is likely where Ashasx got the idea of 'sheltered' minutes. Gio, Brodie, Smid and Butler all start more in the defensive zone.

Here is where I think the difference is between 'sheltered minutes' and 'offensive role'. Sheltering, to me, is hiding your player from top competition, especially in the d-zone. Monahan, for example, has a QofC relative average of -0.635. He also starts over 60% of the time (compared only to defensive) in the offensive zone. That is sheltering. Russell is being still played against good competition, and performing quite well in the process.

Just some food for thought when thinking about the 'value' of Kris Russell.
Sources: extraskater.com. behindthenet.ca

[Gary83]

Absolutely not surprised to hear about a twitter fight. Nice stats to dig up, well done Formulate.

[Poe969]

what are his career stats? I'm just nervous about giving him a contract after one good year. I hate when players "step up" on career years and then cash in and play average or below that after they sign their contract.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by formulate

Some numbers on Russell, for those interested in his performance. This isn't directed specifically towards Ashasx, but he would do well to take a look, especially after his 'twitter fight' with Millions. Bit of a long read, but hopefully will confirm what we're seeing and open a few eyes.

Goals per game: 0.108. Second among Flames defense behind Gio's 0.219.
Shots per game: 1.78. Third among Flames defense behind Gio (2.53) and Wideman (2.47). His shooting % is clearly much higher than Wideman's; something that could level out, potentially bringing their goal totals closer together.
Points per game: 0.459. Second to Gio's 0.688, slightly ahead of Wideman's 0.441.
+/- (yes, but still): +1. Ahead of Gio's -2, Wideman's -13, Brodie's -15 etc.
Shot blocks/game: 2.97. Butler and Smid are at 2.58 but nobody else is even close. The argument against using shot blocks as a positive stat is it sometimes means that player is spending too much time in their own zone. As I will show later, this is definitely the case for Butler and Smid, but not so much for Russell.

*For anyone who's blood pressure rises from hearing about 'advanced' stats, 9/10 doctors recommend you stop here*

Possession, measured by relative corsi. This number, expressed here as a %, measures shot attempt differential (a proxy for possession). The relative part means it shows how much better/worse the team gets when that player is not on the ice.
Russell: +3.6% (team is 3.6% better with him). Third behind Gio (3.9) and Brodie (3.7). All other regulars (Wideman included) are negatives in this category. Note: all of the d-men are in the red when it comes to possession, these numbers are relative to the rest of the team.

Quality of competition (or 'hardness of minutes', if you will).
QofC, corsi (average corsi of opponent): 1.534. 3rd, behind Gio and Brodie.
QofC, relative corsi: 0.389. 4th, behind Gio, Brodie, Smid.
These numbers are a rate per 60 minutes. Basically, Russell's average opponent is on the ice for 1.5 shot attempts more for his team than the other team, per 60 minutes. Clearly, Russell is playing 2nd pairing minutes in terms of difficulty. Gio and Brodie are obviously the shut-down guys against top lines (and performing admirably, for the most part!)

Zone starts: 55.8% offensive. Measured by starts in the offensive zone, divided by total of offensive and defensive (neural starts aren't counted). This is likely where Ashasx got the idea of 'sheltered' minutes. Gio, Brodie, Smid and Butler all start more in the defensive zone.

Here is where I think the difference is between 'sheltered minutes' and 'offensive role'. Sheltering, to me, is hiding your player from top competition, especially in the d-zone. Monahan, for example, has a QofC relative average of -0.635. He also starts over 60% of the time (compared only to defensive) in the offensive zone. That is sheltering. Russell is being still played against good competition, and performing quite well in the process.

Just some food for thought when thinking about the 'value' of Kris Russell.
Sources: extraskater.com. behindthenet.ca

Most excellent post.

Although I will assume it will be overlooked by many.

You should probably post his RGI for more thanks.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by Poe969

what are his career stats? I'm just nervous about giving him a contract after one good year. I hate when players "step up" on career years and then cash in and play average or below that after they sign their contract.

ExtraSkater (which I like the best because metrics are usually expressed as a %) only goes back to 2011-2012, so from BehindtheNet:

These are all 5-on-5 numbers, with no score effects taken into account...
Corsi Rel QofC: Quality of competition judged by the average relative corsi of the opponent.
Corsi QofC: Judged by average corsi of opponent.
Corsi On: Expressed as a rate per 60 minutes. Shot-attempts by Russell's team while he is on the ice minus shot-attempts by his opponents.
Corsi rel: Takes his Corsi on, then subtracts the Corsi rate of the team when Kris isn't on the ice. Shows value relative to the rest of the team.
Off zone start %: Total offensive starts divided by total offensive and defensive.

EDIT: Turns out I have no idea how to post a photo from file . Help?
Cheers, PeteMoss!

[Massonite]

Originally Posted by jesters91

I've been pleasantly surprised with Russell this year. I'll take a stab and say 4 years 11 million (2.75 cap hit).

That sounds about right to me. Wouldn't go any more than 4 years right now, but he is exactly what we need. Hoping we can lock him up!

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by formulate

ExtraSkater (which I like the best because metrics are usually expressed as a %) only goes back to 2011-2012, so from BehindtheNet:

These are all 5-on-5 numbers, with no score effects taken into account...
Corsi Rel QofC: Quality of competition judged by the average relative corsi of the opponent.
Corsi QofC: Judged by average corsi of opponent.
Corsi On: Expressed as a rate per 60 minutes. Shot-attempts by Russell's team while he is on the ice minus shot-attempts by his opponents.
Corsi rel: Takes his Corsi on, then subtracts the Corsi rate of the team when Kris isn't on the ice. Shows value relative to the rest of the team.
Off zone start %: Total offensive starts divided by total offensive and defensive.

EDIT: Turns out I have no idea how to post a photo from file . Help?

Probably the easiest way to post it on free image hosting site - imgur.com is one... and then post it as a link.

[sureLoss]

Scott Cruickshank @CruickshankCH
#Flames negotiations with D Kris Russell . . . "Not quite there yet. Closer." -- agent Allain Roy today

[Stay Golden]

I am hoping for 4 years maybe 2.7m per. Best guess Russell camp is looking for 3 years at 3.2m per.

[joejoe3]

In the end, the ultimate stat everyone here is interested in is $/yr

[dammage79]

Get this done as soon as possible. I'd like him to stick around for a couple years.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by joejoe3

In the end, the ultimate stat everyone here is interested in is $/yr

Not really relevant at this point. Flames will scramble to make cap floor for foreseeable future.
Most relevant is whether this is a guy you want to lock up as valuable as part of the rebuild. Anyone who is, you re-sign (even if at a premium), imo.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think he will be re-signed to a 'show me' contract like Brodie was. I would think Burke would also like to see another solid season or two from Russel before committing on term.

[Fire]

It should be a 2 year extension and definitely no more than 3 years. Around $3 million per season is fair.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I think he will be re-signed to a 'show me' contract like Brodie was. I would think Burke would also like to see another solid season or two from Russel before committing on term.

I agree that a 2-year, show-me contract makes the most sense for all parties.

2 years, $5.5 - 6m

If he keeps playing well, then he can look for a 4 x $4.5

[Jacks]

I doubt Russell is signing a "show me" contract. he is a UFA and is in his best position ever to earn a payday. If we are only willing to pay 2 years at less than 3M I think he tests the market. My prediction is 3 years @ 3.5M and I would be happy with that.