TSN’s Bob MacKenzie says Craig MacTavish’s bold move could be trading 1st pick

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by Ruttiger

An argument could be made that Dubnyk did that this year as well.....

Its possible. It seems like a lot of Oilers fans don't like him but I think they just associate him with when their team was really terrible and he was still young/developing and playing poorly. Now he has actually been playing rather well and its just that he gets no support, because the rest of the Oil are still stinkers. I'm not sure what MacT thinks of him but I think their goaltending is currently the least of their worries.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Ruttiger

It baffles me how people still claim goaltending is a weakness for Edmonton. Dubnyk's numbers have improved steadily since he joined the NHL. With a save% hovering around .920 most of the year and the fact he was the only reason they didn't fall out of contention for a playoff spot much earlier, I'd say goaltending is a long way down Edmonton's list of needs at the moment.

He may or may not yet develop into an elite number 1 netminder, but at the very least he's proven himself capable of being a decent starting NHL goaltender.

His numbers are okay but his actual play is crap. He lets in a ton of awful goals, rarely makes big saves and has a lot of luck in terms of goals that should have gone in this year bouncing away.

He is a bottom 10 starter in the league and for the most part makes the routine saves but he doesn't look at all like a goalie that can carry a team deep into the play-offs and not a goalie that is going to come up with a big save when needed.

I don't think there is any may or may not, unless he takes a monumental leap forward and completely changes his game he will never be an elite goalie.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by moon

What penalty if he retires?

Originally Posted by Capgeek

CAP ADVANTAGE RECAPTURE (Roberto Luongo Rule)
Teams receiving a “cap advantage” from long-term contracts — defined as seven years or more for contracts signed prior to the January 2013 CBA — will be penalized in the event the player retires or “defects” from the NHL before the contract expires. A team receives a “cap advantage” when the player’s actual salary exceeds his cap hit in a given year.
Following retirement/defection, the “advantage” will be “recaptured” and charged against the club’s cap in equal amounts each year until the contract expires. This penalty applies to any team that received a cap advantage from the contract — ie. a traded contract — except in the event that the trade occurred prior to the new CBA coming into place in January 2013.

http://capgeek.com/recapture-calcula...aded_year=2013

As for the Islanders, I don't see them spending 6.7M on a Luongo when his cap hit is only 5.3M. That would require them to overshoot the cap until his salary goes down in 2019. I don't see him heading there.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by moon

What penalty if he retires?

Cap recapture penalty.

For example, if Luongo is traded this offseason, then retires for his new team after the 2017-2018 season, the penalties are as follows:

Vancouver has a $1,857,500 Salary Cap penalty from 2018-19 to 2021-22
New team has a $1,725,833 salary cap penalty from 2018-19 to 2021-22.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by moon

His numbers are okay but his actual play is crap. He lets in a ton of awful goals, rarely makes big saves and has a lot of luck in terms of goals that should have gone in this year bouncing away.

He is a bottom 10 starter in the league and for the most part makes the routine saves but he doesn't look at all like a goalie that can carry a team deep into the play-offs and not a goalie that is going to come up with a big save when needed.

I don't think there is any may or may not, unless he takes a monumental leap forward and completely changes his game he will never be an elite goalie.

I've seen him let in the occasional soft goal but for the most part he's looked pretty good to me when I've tuned into Oilers games and been the only reason at times the Oilers have been in some games. I don't think he's top 10 elite but IMO he looks better than a bottom 10 starter.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I've seen him let in the occasional soft goal but for the most part he's looked pretty good to me when I've tuned into Oilers games and been the only reason at times the Oilers have been in some games. I don't think he's top 10 elite but IMO he looks better than a bottom 10 starter.

Perhaps he has played better lately I haven't seen as many Oiler games in the past 2 weeks as I did early on.

I am just glad he is not the Flames goalie and wouldn't want anything to do with him.

I thought bottom 10 was a little kind to him and probably higher than he is.

[opendoor]

Dubnyk's numbers are inflated by a high shorthanded sv%. His EV numbers are nothing special and are more reflective of his actual performance (he's 22nd in the league among goalies with 15+ starts). You give him last year's shorthanded sv% numbers and he'd have a .910 overall sv%.

Goalies like Price (.905), Brodeur (.901), and Smith (.912) all have similar EV numbers to Dubnyk but have poorer overall numbers because they have more reasonable sv% on the PK. And then you have goalies like Luongo (.914), Rinne (.910), and Miller (.914) who have far superior EV numbers but are brought below Dubnyk's overall numbers, again because of their SH sv%.

Dubnyk had an OK year, but from watching him and looking at his numbers I don't think he's anything more than a lower end starter right now. Maybe he'll improve, but he's now had 7 years of pro hockey and hasn't really distinguished himself at any level.

[Resolute 14]

I'm not really trashing your post, opendoor, because I do understand why ESS% is viewed as a good metric for judging goaltenders, but I do have to laugh because your argument can be boiled down to "Dubnyk isn't as good as he looks because he is better than everyone else on the penalty kill." That, on its face, is absurd.

Of course, I realize the point is that Dubnyk is outperforming what would be considered reasonable expectations in the future. In short, he's likely to regress next season.