Playoff Probabilities

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by hwy19man

It has dropped again 19.5% and the Blues are at 31.6%, the rest of the teams are above fifty percent.

That's using the 50-50 method.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Calgary2.html

Using the weighted method, it's 14.8%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

I believe these estimates aren't entirely accurate on the basis that they have, at times in the past, underestimated the number of 3-point games that teams in the playoff hunt tend to play down the stretch.

I think the Flames' real playoff odds are closer to
https://streamable.com/5pmol

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

That's using the 50-50 method.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W.../Calgary2.html

Using the weighted method, it's 14.8%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

I believe these estimates aren't entirely accurate on the basis that they have, at times in the past, underestimated the number of 3-point games that teams in the playoff hunt tend to play down the stretch.

I think the Flames' real playoff odds are closer to
https://streamable.com/5pmol

10-4-1 probably gets us in. What are the odds of that? 15% seems about right with Smith. Without, it's probably not pretty.

[hwy19man]

The links show decent increase of the Flames chances should they win tonight's game.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

That's using the 50-50 method.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Calgary2.html

Using the weighted method, it's 14.8%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Pacific/Calgary.html

I believe these estimates aren't entirely accurate on the basis that they have, at times in the past, underestimated the number of 3-point games that teams in the playoff hunt tend to play down the stretch.

I think the Flames' real playoff odds are closer to
https://streamable.com/5pmol

Originally Posted by hwy19man

The links show decent increase of the Flames chances should they win tonight's game.

Good news! The weighted method has the Flames up 5.9% to 20%. The 50/50 method up 5.7% to 24.1% and the Sam Mitchell way can't be right.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Here is a thread where fans can gather good juju during what is sure to be an exciting last half of the season. This is a good place to believe in the Flames warts and all.

From last year's playoff positivity thread.

[EldrickOnIce]

If Flames get to 94 points, the following record (or equivalent) is required of the Flames and a minimum of 3 teams below:
At worst
Flames: 9-5

At best
Kings: 8-8
Avs: 8-8
Blues: 9-7
Ducks: 6-8-1
Sharks: 7-9

[kukkudo]

Hopefully Kings, Sharks, Ducks, and Avs lose today

[EldrickOnIce]

Regulation losses, of course. And it's not unlikely results either. We'll maybe all of them are unlikely to happen lol.

I will take either result in the Blues/Sharks game, but yeah - a Sharks loss and a Flames sweep of the two remaining against them pulls them right back into the mix.

I think for now though, I'll take burying the Blues further from wild card picture. I dunno...

[nfotiu]

Games over .500 is always a good way to look at the standings independent of GP. The last 3 teams in are 11,13 and 13 games over. I expect that 14 games over will be good enough to be ahead of at least one of them, 13 will count on tie breakers, and 12 would need some OOT magic.

I think it will play out like this:
10-4 is in
9-4-1 is 50/50
9-5 is 25/75

Anything less it out.

[EldrickOnIce]

McCurdy (Ineffective Math) projects 94 points gets you in, fwiw.

[Corral]

Dallas - assuming that is the team we could catch - only needs to go 8-7 rest of the way to finish with 96 points.

Flames need to win AT LEAST 10 of their last 14 games AND need one of Dallas, ANA, LA or SJ to go into an ugly tailspin AND assume COL continues at its current pace or worse.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

Hopefully Kings, Sharks, Ducks, and Avs lose today

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Regulation losses, of course. And it's not unlikely results either. We'll maybe all of them are unlikely to happen lol.

I will take either result in the Blues/Sharks game, but yeah - a Sharks loss and a Flames sweep of the two remaining against them pulls them right back into the mix.

I think for now though, I'll take burying the Blues further from wild card picture. I dunno...

Okay, the Ducks losing and the Blues-Sharks game ending in reg time was good news. The Avs losing in OT is so-so and the Kings winning sucks. The Blues do look like they are sinking fast.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Corral

Dallas - assuming that is the team we could catch - only needs to go 8-7 rest of the way to finish with 96 points.

Flames need to win AT LEAST 10 of their last 14 games AND need one of Dallas, ANA, LA or SJ to go into an ugly tailspin AND assume COL continues at its current pace or worse.

Dallas has a brutal schedule left. I doubt they will make it to 94.
It's the Avs that I'm more concerned about

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Dallas has a brutal schedule left. I doubt they will make it to 94.
It's the Avs that I'm more concerned about

Dallas needs to play 1 game below .500 to get to 94 points. FWIW.

And we have to be concerned about Colorado, LA, Anaheim and St Louis too.

[PlayfulGenius]

The current pace of teams has 97 points making the playoffs.

Flames play 2xEDM, OTT, NYI, and 2xARZ... they need to win those games... if they do, a 4-4 record in the other games gets them 96 points... so, it’s still possible to get in, but a bit unlikely ... hopefully they go on a run, here.

[colbym72]

Originally Posted by PlayfulGenius

The current pace of teams has 97 points making the playoffs.

Flames play 2xEDM, OTT, NYI, and 2xARZ... they need to win those games... if they do, a 4-4 record in the other games gets them 96 points... so, it’s still possible to get in, but a bit unlikely ... hopefully they go on a run, here.

I would be pretty surprised if 97 was the cutoff

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Dallas needs to play 1 game below .500 to get to 94 points. FWIW.

And we have to be concerned about Colorado, LA, Anaheim and St Louis too.

Yeah. I said the Avs were my biggest concern.
I see the Stars and Blues falling off the pace.
In terms of wildcard, the Kings and Ducks can be ignored if Flames finish above those 3 central teams.
So I'm saying if the Flames finish above the Avs they are in.
This is only my opinion, and it includes my usual dose of optimism regarding the Flames.

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by colbym72

I would be pretty surprised if 97 was the cutoff

I'd be more shocked if it's 95pts ... if I had to put money on it, I'd say 96... but, I also expect an increased ratio of 3pt games down the stretch, so 97 wouldn't shock me.

[The Fonz]

On a positive note, it's DAL vs ANA tonight, so someone is taking a loss. If that game is decided in regulation, and the Flames can win in OTT, then that will be massive ground made up in 1 night.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

On a positive note, it's DAL vs ANA tonight, so someone is taking a loss. If that game is decided in regulation, and the Flames can win in OTT, then that will be massive ground made up in 1 night.

I am not so certain them playing each other is that positive, as one of those teams, at a minimum will get points.

When Calgary has to gain on multiple teams, guaranteeing one of those teams 2 points is not good.

But we can all agree that Calgary needs to keep winning or none of this really matters.

And no 3 pointers in these types of games.

It would be nice to add another team (say Dallas) into the mix so it's not 4 teams fighting for 1 spot, as opposed to 5 teams chasing 2 spots. But at the expense of an Anaheim win? I don't know.