Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[Ducay]

Exactly, even globally, there is currently less capital & political risk on plays in Africa than Alberta, and supermajors' capital is evidence of that. Again, direct as a result of the NDP and Liberals' constantly changing goalposts and lack of certainty around literally anything.

Embarrassing that we are seen as more risky destination for capital than Nigeria.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Corporate tax revenue actually went down with the NDPs increased tax rate. Tax rate and tax revenue are not linearly correlated, a lot of people have trouble understanding this.

I’m not sure what else could have happened that could have caused corporate taxes to drop so it must have been solely due to the tax rate. That is some excellent economic analysis

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by GGG

I’m not sure what else could have happened that could have caused corporate taxes to drop so it must have been solely due to the tax rate. That is some excellent economic analysis

... a lot of people have trouble understanding this...

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by transplant99

That just seems unfathomable....yet there are people that want more of it?

Where and how does it all end?

April 16th is when it ends for the Alberta NDP.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by GGG

I’m not sure what else could have happened that could have caused corporate taxes to drop so it must have been solely due to the tax rate. That is some excellent economic analysis

Geez calm down obviously there's other stuff happening, but they instituted it one year into the price drop so that was already baked in. I'm just saying higher tax rates don't automatically equal higher revenues.

[Manhattanboy]

A good signal to US investors (particularly those that invested in Alberta in the past ) would be the total destruction of the NDP - that they were a one hit wonder in this province never to be heard from again.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

A good signal to US investors (particularly those that invested in Alberta in the past ) would be the total destruction of the NDP - that they were a one hit wonder in this province never to be heard from again.

Don’t think it matters.

Alberta investment is tied to on thing right now. Market access.

The federal Carobon tax is far worse than the Alberta on for industry. The risk of that being applied to the oil sands would kill future investment until the lawsuit is settled.

Kenny’s rail car position actually might hurt short term sustaining capital investment which at a minimum just extends curtailment.

Investors are smart, a change in government doesn’t change the macro environment. Until the last TMX lawsuit is filed or Keystone is started we will be limited.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

A good signal to US investors (particularly those that invested in Alberta in the past ) would be the total destruction of the NDP - that they were a one hit wonder in this province never to be heard from again.

I doubt very much “total destruction” or “never to be heard from again” are in any way realistic. Alberta’s political climate is not today what it was 20 years ago. I think people hoping for another 50 year run by the conservatives are in for some disappointment.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I doubt very much “total destruction” or “never to be heard from again” are in any way realistic. Alberta’s political climate is not today what it was 20 years ago. I think people hoping for another 50 year run by the conservatives are in for some disappointment.

Just an opinion,

I dont think any single party will go for 50 years ever again at any level.

That being said, I doubt the NDP will ever get re-elected in this province again.

They could not have had more of a perfect storm than they did last time. Split votes between the WR/PC parties (IIRC outside of Edm. and 2 Lethbridge seats not a single candidate combined for more votes than the PC/WR combined), Prentice leading the PC's after the look in the mirror comments (right or wrong it sunk him), the floor crossings by Smith, Anderson and the others and then the performance of Notley in the debate....it all added up to a pissed off electorate that wanted something different.

Just a simple perusal of the last voter count says had the right been united last time, they had over 52% of the vote to the NDP 40%....the previous election 2011 the NDP had less than 10%. Those that didn't vote NDP are highly highly unlikely to go that way this time. The NDP will stick around a bit because Edmonton is...well...Edmonton. Notley won't be around forever either and she is their glue IMO. The AB may or may not steal a bunch of votes from the UCP but Im assuming they will get as many or more from the NDP voters of last time as well.

They are the very definition of an accidental government.

I may be WAY off base but that's how it "feels" to me. I'm just a sewer rat mind you.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Oil & Gas was already slumped when NDP took office and then kicked them while they were down with the royalty review and then poor support for pipelines until too late. Both of these effectively killed capital investment in our province and, in turn, revenues for every company that executes on those billions and billions of capex that went elsewhere.

NDP is directly to blame for the reduced tax revenues.

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Geez calm down obviously there's other stuff happening, but they instituted it one year into the price drop so that was already baked in. I'm just saying higher tax rates don't automatically equal higher revenues.

Corporate investment doesn't turn on a dime. Royalty review certainly didn't help, but very unlikely it was the make or break on many projects. Same for the 2% tax increase. Both are lame excuses for decreased investment that was 99% inevitable. The 2% at least helped mitigate this inevitable loss a bit.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by transplant99

That being said, I doubt the NDP will ever get re-elected in this province again.

You could have said that in BC 20 years ago. In fact, it was far more remote a possibility in that Province than here. Yet here we are, with a BC NDP government.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Corporate investment doesn't turn on a dime. Royalty review certainly didn't help, but very unlikely it was the make or break on many projects. Same for the 2% tax increase. Both are lame excuses for decreased investment that was 99% inevitable. The 2% at least helped mitigate this inevitable loss a bit.

20% man. Not 2.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

You could have said that in BC 20 years ago. In fact, it was far more remote a possibility in that Province than here. Yet here we are, with a BC NDP government.

Alberta aint BC.

I guess only time will tell.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

20% man. Not 2.

I hate how this topic is discussed 20% and 2% don’t actually discuss what we care about here which is the impact to business.

Federal corporate taxes are 15% after the general reduction so taxes went from 25% to 27% if one is considering how the tax increase affects earnings after taxes.

So taxes paid increased by 8%. (27/25)
More important is the amount that profit was reduced by. (75/73). Profit after taxes for corporations was reduced by 2.74% as a result of an 8% increase in taxes being paid or a 20% increase in the provincial corporate tax rate.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Corporate investment doesn't turn on a dime. Royalty review certainly didn't help, but very unlikely it was the make or break on many projects. Same for the 2% tax increase. Both are lame excuses for decreased investment that was 99% inevitable. The 2% at least helped mitigate this inevitable loss a bit.

Existing projects, no they won't be halted instantly, but between those provincial and federal changes, and moreso the uncertain environment they created, (Large producers want stability for their $), they have effectively driven away nearly all of the international capital from Canada.

Look at the awe inspiring retreat of supermajors from Alberta, it is literally unprecedented and a massive hit on our economy. I'd argue its great for local guys like Suncor and CNR, but holy hell, the proof is in the pudding for what the world thinks of the climate NDP and Liberals have created.

Money talks.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Existing projects, no they won't be halted instantly, but between those provincial and federal changes, and moreso the uncertain environment they created, (Large producers want stability for their $), they have effectively driven away nearly all of the international capital from Canada.

Look at the awe inspiring retreat of supermajors from Alberta, it is literally unprecedented and a massive hit on our economy. I'd argue its great for local guys like Suncor and CNR, but holy hell, the proof is in the pudding for what the world thinks of the climate NDP and Liberals have created.

Money talks.

Its like people are arguing this hasn't happened. It's so weird to me.

Money has left this province in DROVES people...thats just a fact. To try and spin it otherwise is both disingenuous and flat out a lie.

[Ducay]

Exactly; and every dollar of less capital spent here is a dollar less in a local company that does the actual work.

That's why capital investment vs. the rest of the world is such an indisputable fact. Cuts through the politics and BS, and just illustrates the point perfectly about the devastating impact the NDP and Liberals have had.

If the NDP took a hard line 4 years ago when they took office and really pushed getting a pipeline built, we wouldn't be at the point we are now, where the 4-5 export pipes in the works then are all now either dead or significantly delayed. I don't think most people still supporting NDP know how many billions of tax dollars have been lost as a result. Look at Brent or Mayan pricing. Oil @ tidewater would be a beautiful thing for our province, hurts thinking about what a couple bad political parties could do in such a short period of time. Heathcare, unions, infrastructure, the environment all would have been much better off if another party had won, since we'd actually have money to spend on such programs.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Its like people are arguing this hasn't happened. It's so weird to me.

Money has left this province in DROVES people...thats just a fact. To try and spin it otherwise is both disingenuous and flat out a lie.

Are people arguing Capital hasn’t left or are people arguing that NDP policy hasn’t caused this exodus of Capital?

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/business...t-the-ways/amp

Here is a good article from Tertzakian on some of the causes in addition to the pipeline issue causing capital flight.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Ducay

If the NDP took a hard line 4 years ago when they took office and really pushed getting a pipeline built, we wouldn't be at the point we are now, where the 4-5 export pipes in the works then are all now either dead or significantly delayed. programs.

What do you think changes?

The court decisions on Gateway and TMX still happen. The moratorium on tanker traffic and regulatory changes still likely are where they are.

Energy East might be further ahead though that died due to C-68.

Line 3 hits the same problems as it did and Keystone is a purely US problem.

[Canadianman]

Man, what a crazy echo chamber this thread is.

Blaming the NDP for investment fleeing when oil prices tanked and we can't get our product to anyone except the US?

Being mad at the NDP for hiring people to avoid having a 20% unemployment rate?

Firmly believing that the party that held power for 50 years, didn't do anything to diversify our economy and didn't get any pipelines built to alternative markets is somehow the solution?

Holding your nose and assuming that the UCP doesn't really mean all of the crazy right wing crap they spew on a daily basis?

I don't love the NDP (didn't even vote for them) but Notley has been a great premier. If they had a name that didn't have NDP in it I suspect they would win the election.