2024 NHL Draft Thread

[shutout]

If you have the subscription, I would highly recommend reading the article that Wheeler put out talking about his scouting process and philosphy.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/454...g-guide-facts/

This guide to scouting is meant to be my manual for the work I do here on the evaluation side ...

And at the end of it all, scouting hockey will always be an imperfect science. These are just the blurry outlines of it.

Context
There is (or should be, at least) a lot more to player evaluation than what you see of a player on the ice.

My viewing process and limitations
This has changed a lot over the years.

Skills-based evaluation
If this guide leaves you with anything, I want it to be what the last slide of my presentation to them outlined in my rules to live by:

- Ambiguity is the enemy of description. Specificity is the goal.
- Your audience (reader, or listener, or boss) shouldn’t have to guess what you mean.
- Unbox.

Skating:
Playmaking:
Puckhandling and deceptiveness:
Shooting:
Defensive acumen:
Intangibles:

[cral12]

Locked On NHL Prospects podcast - Flames landed Zeev Buium in heir mock FWIW.
I'd be ecstatic if it does indeed play out this way.
(I think he goes earlier though. but again hammers home we will have some great options with this pick)

Episode 224:
https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcast...nhl-prospects/

[Sandman]

Draft Thoughts (RoughRider Edition):

LHD Elliott Groenewold toils for the Cedar Rapids RoughRiders of the USHL, a team that missed the playoffs after finishing 14th out of 16 teams. The 6'2",201lb rearguard managed to compile 5 goals and 16 points, to go along with 77 penalty minutes in 57 games this season. He is currently ranked #66 by Central Scouting for North American Skaters.

Groenewold is a stay-at-home, shutdown defender with a robust physical game. He's a minute-muncher who excels on the PK and plays with an edge. Though he will likely never be an offensive producer, he possesses a modicum of smarts and skill, and can move the puck well enough. One of his best qualities is his mobility, showing a pretty good set of wheels and some agility to boot. He transitions well, and makes efforts to shut down the rush proactively in the neutral zone, keeping a close gap on his opponents. He will force attackers to the outside with clever angling and an active stick, where they are stripped of the puck with a well-timed poke-check, and either pinned to the boards or taken out. In the defensive zone, he's highly aware and attacks puck-carriers to limit time and space, and wins board battles with his strength and tenacity. He finishes his checks, and will throw his body around to dislodge pucks. In front of the net, he stands guard to keep the crease clear, and takes away the middle as a passing option. Off the puck, he supports his partner well in staying playable, and knowing when to cover their position when they have to leave their post. Groenewold excels at retrievals, and can either skate it out through transition (all the way to the offensive zone on occasion), with some slick moves to evade checkers, or make a quality first-pass to a streaking teammate. When in the offensive zone, he doesn't activate much unless it's to keep the puck in the zone, and doesn't venture too far in past the blueline.

Groenewold isn't much of a creator, with so-so puck-skills and limited offense. His stickhandling is a little rough at times, and he can lose the puck unprompted at inopportune moments. He sometimes shows an issue with his decision-making when under pressure as well. For the next level, he will most likely settle in to a bottom-pairing defensive role with some penalty-killing duties. He is committed to Quinnipiac University for the 2024-25 season. Look for him in later rounds.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by cral12

Locked On NHL Prospects podcast - Flames landed Zeev Buium in heir mock FWIW.
I'd be ecstatic if it does indeed play out this way.
(I think he goes earlier though. but again hammers home we will have some great options with this pick)

Episode 224:
https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcast...nhl-prospects/

Like a lot if things in my life i say “ is it possible? “ ya its possible.
“ is it likely? “ probably not.

Oddly enough this draft may be the best way for a draft where we pick nine. In my mind yakemchuk has the possibility of being the best defender in the draft he may go top ten may drop to teens. This is a very good but not spectacular top fifteen.

Love buium just dont think he will he there at nine, i think he goes top five.

[konradical]

Whoever we pick will be a great player and probably the best U24 player in the system going forward, whether it is Iginla, Helenius or Buium they will likely be the guy going forward.

Personally id go BPA just because unlike other teams we dont have any bonafide A prospects really. Zary and Coronato both seem on the right track for top 6 roles. Honzek,Pelts and Pospisil are still unknown for the longterm.

EIther way I think we have an great cast of B prospects but we really need 1 or 2 top level guys. Maybe someone we already have will be that guy, but for example I would rather Parekh or Iginla if they feel that their ceiling is higher then a Catton or Helenius even if they play centre.

This isnt my opinion on who is the better player, I just hope that the Flames pick who they see as the best over positional need as we arent as loaded with high end prospects to be choosey

[flamesgod]

It’s gonna be a pretty exciting draft day. Any way you shake it, there’s going to be a few really good prospects available to us at #9.

[Sandman]

RE: Beckett Sennecke

-Sennecke has skyrocketed up the charts because of his playoff performance, as he's been one of the best in the OHL playoffs and would be just about tied with Calum Ritchie for the lead in points for Oshawa if he didn't miss 5 games due to injury.

-Sennecke put up 55 points in 61 games last year, his D-minus 1 season. That tells me that he was due for more offense than he was able to muster this year. He started out slowly, but had 42 points in 34 games after the calendar flipped over, which pro-rates to 84 points in 68 games. Tij Iginla had 84 points in 64 games.

-Sennecke finished 4th overall in the on-ice testing at the CHLTPG, and top-5 in 5 different categories. He is an extremely underrated skater, and has better mobility than Iginla. He's bigger, more physical, and meaner than Iggy too.

I love Iggy, but I wouldn't blame any team who took Sennecke first, and I think it might surprise all of us where he's taken in the draft.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Sandman

RE: Beckett Sennecke

-Sennecke has skyrocketed up the charts because of his playoff performance, as he's been one of the best in the OHL playoffs and would be just about tied with Calum Ritchie for the lead in points for Oshawa if he didn't miss 5 games due to injury.

-Sennecke put up 55 points in 61 games last year, his D-minus 1 season. That tells me that he was due for more offense than he was able to muster this year. He started out slowly, but had 42 points in 34 games after the calendar flipped over, which pro-rates to 84 points in 68 games. Tij Iginla had 84 points in 64 games.

-Sennecke finished 4th overall in the on-ice testing at the CHLTPG, and top-5 in 5 different categories. He is an extremely underrated skater, and has better mobility than Iginla. He's bigger, more physical, and meaner than Iggy too.

I love Iggy, but I wouldn't blame any team who took Sennecke first, and I think it might surprise all of us where he's taken in the draft.

Thank you for making my point but far more eloquently.

Pointed this out earlier was never really sure what separated tij from sennecke by any margin. My list has tij in the teens.

[Bingo Jr.]

I almost ran out of Thanks from all the pro-Buium posts.

I've been singing that song for well over a month. If he's available, you take him no matter what, even if Tij is there.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Have you posted your list?

For fun I'll do a draft order list for the 1st round and go head to head, 32pts for 1st(Celebrini) down to 1 point for 32nd. total points wins a hero cookie

We'll probably both loose to Button.

This is a great idea, not sure if we should make another thread or do it here but similar to the world junior thread we should all make 1st round lists projecting where players go and see who the next pro scout is!
But seriously it would be fun just to see how accurate some of our guys are vs the guys that are paid to do it.

I'd be game

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Royle9

This is a great idea, not sure if we should make another thread or do it here but similar to the world junior thread we should all make 1st round lists projecting where players go and see who the next pro scout is!
But seriously it would be fun just to see how accurate some of our guys are vs the guys that are paid to do it.

I'd be game

Im in

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I do think that if Tij Iginla's name was anything other than Tij Iginla that we likely wouldn't be talking about him nearly as much with our pick as we are. Not to say that he isn't a perfectly fine pick at number 9, but I think we'd all be more focused on taking the best available Center or dman, because our organizational depth is already at wing.

I think if it wasn't for Iginla we'd be more focused on one of the dmen or Lindstrom/Catton/Helenius.

Catton's regular season stats blow away Iginla and unlike say Cristall last season, Catton is a really good skater. Sure he's 5'11" but Iginla is only an inch taller. It's fair to say that if Tij had a different surname he's rarely in the conversation here for the Flames #9 pick.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Catton's regular season stats blow away Iginla and unlike say Cristall last season, Catton is a really good skater. Sure he's 5'11" but Iginla is only an inch taller. It's fair to say that if Tij had a different surname he's rarely in the conversation here for the Flames #9 pick.

Only if you believe that his last name is responsible for him being around that spot on virtually every single list out there from those that follow this stuff for a living.

Highly unlikely that is the case.

[Bingo]

Yeah while it's certainly possible that pedigree is entering the conversation as a variable with Reinhart and the Tkachuks (among others) becoming impact players, Iginla's production and late season surge are the stuff of draft risers regardless of surname.

[1qqaaz]

I think Iginla's last name does help him, but it's completely justified and rational.
It very likely means he has a good head on his shoulders, has great genetics, and that he could be somewhat of a late bloomer relative to his draft year.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Only if you believe that his last name is responsible for him being around that spot on virtually every single list out there from those that follow this stuff for a living.

Highly unlikely that is the case.

It's not that he's not an acceptable pick at 9, I just don't think this fanbase would be as excited if he was the pick if his name wasn't Iginla.

He's a okay sized but not big winger, that had good draft year production but not remarkable, but did get better as the year went on.

My guess is if his name wasn't Iginla we'd talk about him more about how we talk about the other similar wingers in the top 15 like Greentree, Sennecke, and Brandsegg-Nygard

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah while it's certainly possible that pedigree is entering the conversation as a variable with Reinhart and the Tkachuks (among others) becoming impact players, Iginla's production and late season surge are the stuff of draft risers regardless of surname.

So why isnt sennecke in the convo then? Personally would take senecke over tij.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah while it's certainly possible that pedigree is entering the conversation as a variable with Reinhart and the Tkachuks (among others) becoming impact players, Iginla's production and late season surge are the stuff of draft risers regardless of surname.

Also, it seems to be coming apparent that the offspring of NHL players really do have a bit of an ability to make the jump successfully to the rigors and pace of the best league in the world.

Obviously it doesnt guarantee anything, but i think there is a lot to be said about being around and exposed to and seeing what it takes to be an NHLer.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's not that he's not an acceptable pick at 9, I just don't think this fanbase would be as excited if he was the pick if his name wasn't Iginla.

He's a okay sized but not big winger, that had good draft year production but not remarkable, but did get better as the year went on.

My guess is if his name wasn't Iginla we'd talk about him more about how we talk about the other similar wingers in the top 15 like Greentree, Sennecke, and Brandsegg-Nygard

Well yeah, that goes without saying.

I took EE as saying he shouldnt be in the conversation as a pick at 9 because his last name put him there. I think that is patently absurd.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Only if you believe that his last name is responsible for him being around that spot on virtually every single list out there from those that follow this stuff for a living.

Highly unlikely that is the case.

Damn near every mock ive seen has us picking tij with clearly better olayers still there. The bias is real. If his name was anything but iginla we would dicuss him as much as greentree or senecke.

Hes an average sized winger with average skating who projects as a top six wing. Thats it.