I think a lot of people get too caught up in his promises on certain timelines for certain stuff, and then think because it didn't happen in that time frame it will never happen.
At the end of the day Tesla is pushing the envelope forward on sustainable energy, and I'm okay with the over promising. It keeps the hype training going, money flowing and investors happy.
Tesla thinks they are going to solve self driving using only vision. They've missed many many goals of reaching FSD. I'm not sure it's even possible, but it's clearly a long ways off, despite them selling the feature for years.
I still think they are going to get overtaken by traditional automakers in the EV world, probably in the next 5 years.
Tesla thinks they are going to solve self driving using only vision. They've missed many many goals of reaching FSD. I'm not sure it's even possible, but it's clearly a long ways off, despite them selling the feature for years.
This is exactly the "can't be done" attitude I mentioned.
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I still think they are going to get overtaken by traditional automakers in the EV world, probably in the next 5 years.
And since we are playing, when do you think Tesla will have level 5 autonomy(FSD) while utilizing the current hardware that they have sold as FSD capable?
Well their is a limit to what can and can't be done with sensors. Hopes and dreams only take you so far.
Tesla has vision telemetry in the billions of miles more than all other systems combined.
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Globally? OK, a Chinese company of some sort, VW, GM and Renault will probably have sales matching or surpassing Tesla.
You tossed out random names and can't even name the Chinese company, you have no clue.
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Originally Posted by Fuzz
And since we are playing, when do you think Tesla will have level 5 autonomy(FSD) while utilizing the current hardware that they have sold as FSD capable?
Tesla has vision telemetry in the billions of miles more than all other systems combined.
You tossed out random names and can't even name the Chinese company, you have no clue.
18 months to 3 years.
Exactly, Tesla has all that data and go watch that video and tell me they are close. Imagine what that looks like on winter roads. I'd propose that any vehicle Tesla sold with current FSD hardware will never reach level 5 in winter conditions, and I'd be surprised if it does it safely in summer, too.
I don't know the specific Chinese company that will be #1 in China, so the rest of my predictions don't matter? Ok then. Sorry I don't follow the details of every Chinese automaker. I mean, look at this:
Funny how you assume anyone with a different opinion than you doesn't know what they are talking about.
That's the problem, most of what you post is opinion. I base my predictions on current facts, for example in self driving Tesla is far far ahead. This is based on their neural network, ASIC FSD hardware, and in general how they approach autonomy.
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Exactly, Tesla has all that data and go watch that video and tell me they are close. Imagine what that looks like on winter roads. I'd propose that any vehicle Tesla sold with current FSD hardware will never reach level 5 in winter conditions, and I'd be surprised if it does it safely in summer, too.
I've watched many FSD vids, Tesla is the only one that can even attempt to drive in a city environment without any previous data. The system has a lot of flaws but gets better every day. Watch some where the car navigates a street/area where it has never been before, then the next time. Drastic improvement the system self learns.
As for winter driving, another challenge that's why I think it will take 18+ months.
But I'll say it again, if you're super confident these random auto makers will best Tesla then invest, you'll be rich. The company that has the best FSD, the best EV, best range, best charging time/infrastructure will be the next Apple when it comes to share price. Love it or hate it, the "green" movement is just beginning.
LOL. So your comments are based on facts, mine are opinion? Your opinion is you think Tesla will have FSD in 18+ months, mine is that they will not. There are no facts that make your guess better than mine. In fact, the evidence shows they have a functional system with many issues to solve. Many, in my opinion, that are not solvable with their sensor suite.
I'm not against EV's, I just don't think Tesla has anything that can't be technologically beaten by major manufacturers.
LOL. So your comments are based on facts, mine are opinion? Your opinion is you think Tesla will have FSD in 18+ months, mine is that they will not. There are no facts that make your guess better than mine. In fact, the evidence shows they have a functional system with many issues to solve. Many, in my opinion, that are not solvable with their sensor suite.
My guess is based on facts I've done the research. As usual going forward I could turn out to be completely wrong. So far I've predicted fairly close.
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I'm not against EV's, I just don't think Tesla has anything that can't be technologically beaten by major manufacturers.
So currently you acknowledge Tesla is the industry leader. For other auto makers to take the lead I'm going to need to see them building their version of the Gigafactory, coming up with their own battery tech, having a proper team of software engineers etc. etc. so far I am not seeing that at all. VW is the most serious right now but still skeptical they can shed their legacy baggage.
GM has made EV promises over the years they've broken almost all of them. Toyota said in 2016 they'd have a fully electric vehicle by 2020. BTW, you say "major manufacturers" Tesla IS one of those. By the end of this year they'll have 3 factories making cars and are building more and building out the existing ones. This year Tesla will make ~1 million cars. Is that not a major manufacturer to you? No it's not 15 million cars/year but do you really expect Tesla to be at that point 8 years into mainstream production?
My guess is based on research as well. I don't think yuor research gives you the right to say I don't know what I'm talking about just because I've come to different conclusions.
Batteries are obviously the biggest issue, but I suspect most manufacturers will be looking at contracting that out, like they do for many auto parts.
And yes, Tesla is of course a major EV manufacturer and I suspect they'll be in amongst that group of leaders, but will fall behind them on sales numbers. I don't think they will still be #1.
And if you want to go by what auto makers say they've done vs achieved..well Tesla is full of those examples as well.
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Then I don't understand why you think Tesla's FSD is doomed. It has the best chance of any system out there.
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I don't think yuor research gives you the right to say I don't know what I'm talking about just because I've come to different conclusions.
Fair enough. But can't understand why you are concluding the legacy OEMs will beat Tesla when there is nothing pointing in this direction. The opposite is happening Tesla is expanding their lead.
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Batteries are obviously the biggest issue, but I suspect most manufacturers will be looking at contracting that out, like they do for many auto parts.
Meaning legacy OEMs will be left to fight for battery supply not using the best tech. Tesla's hyper vertical integration especially in batteries is a huge advantage.
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And yes, Tesla is of course a major EV manufacturer and I suspect they'll be in amongst that group of leaders, but will fall behind them on sales numbers. I don't think they will still be #1.
Possible. But given Tesla's build out speed (dirt to production in one year) OEMs are going to have to pull a miracle out of their asses.
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And if you want to go by what auto makers say they've done vs achieved..well Tesla is full of those examples as well.
Tesla delivered the Y ahead of schedule same with the 3. FSD is way behind. Giga Shanghai way ahead of schedule. More broadly Starlink is ahead, SpaceX a mixed bag but what they're doing was thought to be 100% impossible.
Most of Tesla's problems are battery supply they can't make enough of them. Which is why I don't understand why you think the legacy OEMs are going to beat Tesla in volume. Since you've done your research you know the expected terawatt production of Tesla going forward no one else has shown they can come even close.
I think other manufactures, particularity in Europe will focus on cheaper, smaller EV's that use smaller batteries, and that's how they will get to volume.
I don't think Tesla's FSD will be a reality with current hardware. I don't think anyone is going to have level 5 for a decade, there are just to many edge cases and challenges. The first big steps are easy (relative) to the final small ones. Driving in a snow storm with no road markings and only visual cameras is going to be incredibly challenging without human replicateable AI. And as far as I know, AI is a long way from replicating the human brain.
I agree that as time goes on, Tesla won't be able to maintain their lead in EV sales, but to not put them in the top 1-5 in the world in 10 years seems pretty shortsighted when all other manufacturers have open said that Tesla has a big lead and it will be 5-10 years until anyone else catches on.
Right now the bottleneck seems battery production, and Tesla is FAR ahead on that front, and there is no indication that anyone else will catch up.
"Battery production will be outsourced." Well sure, but that means that other manufacturers are even further behind.
All you keep saying is 'you think' Tesla will fall behind, you think this, you think that, but quarter after quarter they've proven to be able to sell more EVs than the quarter before, raise more money, build more batteries, and build more factories to make EVs than anyone else.
Why will that change?
FSD is what it is. Lofty goals and dreams. Musk has been wrong on his timelines for features like that almost every single time. Is he wrong here? Who knows, but you are a keyboard warrior posting your opinion on a forum dedicated to a rather pathetic hockey team, and he runs companies that sends rockets to space and has revolutionized the EV industry.
I take everything that Musk says with a huge grain of salt, but I'd still take his hopes and dreams over your 'opinion' which largely means nothing and is definitely not based on any kind of facts.
Well, first, I didn't say Tesla wouldn't be in the top 5, I was asked for competitors and said those companies would match or beat Tesla.
As to the rest of your baffling offensive...well this is a message board, we are discussing stuff, mostly in a reasonable manner. Am I not permitted to have opinions? Yes, of course what happens in the future is just what I "think" will happen, just as you may think something else will. Calling me a "keyboard warrior" is pretty weird. Have you never had discussions with people who think the future will be different than you think it will? Apparently I've gone the wrong way about having a conversation, and in the future I'm only permitted to discuss opinions in a manner you agree with? This just feels like really weird gatekeeping on your part.
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You think GM, Renault, VW, Geely, or SAIC, or BYD will beat Tesla in sales do I have that correct? And Tesla will not have full self driving in the next 10 years. Right?
There is still a load of Trolley Problem ethics problems to work through. Do you let the AI allow a car mow down an 80 yr old instead of a 35 year old, or does the car hit the old Buick instead of a Lamborghini cause of insurance costs? There is something to be said about the randomness of split second human decisions. They are less prone to manipulation.
That is an entirely different kettle of fish. What it comes down to is average just like it does with human drivers. What the average differential ends up being that people accept I don't know. Is 10 times safer on average acceptable? 100 times? Or will people "never" accept an AI driven car making mistakes causing death.
You think GM, Renault, VW, Geely, or SAIC, or BYD will beat Tesla in sales do I have that correct? And Tesla will not have full self driving in the next 10 years. Right?
In the next 5 years, yes, I think at least one, probably more of those companies will match or beat Tesla in yearly sales.
And with current hardware, Tesla will not be level 5 capable in all conditions. I'd be surprised if they could ever get level 5 with current hardware in ideal weather.
That is an entirely different kettle of fish. What it comes down to is average just like it does with human drivers. What the average differential ends up being that people accept I don't know. Is 10 times safer on average acceptable? 100 times? Or will people "never" accept an AI driven car making mistakes causing death.
Ultimately I think we'll need a new type of insurance that the auto makers are responsible for. If the car is making 100% of the decisions, it comes down to how they are programmed and how well the systems work. That's not really a driver responsibility anymore, as you have no control over it.
I've read about how you could have a system, if a crash is inevitable, use a random generator to decide which action to take, if they both have bad outcomes. Then the system isn't designed to protect the car owner over the pedestrian, or other driver. But that of course complicates things massively.
