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Old 03-17-2021, 08:22 PM   #11221
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My mom just got her results back, she is positive. This is not surprising and maybe a false negative on the first one last week. She is okay for now but wouldn't fully tell me if she wasn't so I'll have update an tomorrow from my brother on both of them.
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Old 03-17-2021, 08:28 PM   #11222
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My mom just got her results back, she is positive. This is not surprising and maybe a false negative on the first one last week. She is okay for now but wouldn't fully tell me if she wasn't so I'll have update an tomorrow from my brother on both of them.
As you said before this almost makes more sense than her being negative- hope she keeps it up
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Old 03-17-2021, 08:30 PM   #11223
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As you said before this almost makes more sense than her being negative- hope she keeps it up
Yeah just roughly piecing together the timeline I think she'll be okay, sounds normal on the phone where as last week she was coughing a bit so I think we'll be okay with her. Thanks.
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Old 03-17-2021, 08:38 PM   #11224
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R-value of 1.07 is about the maximum rate of growth we can sustain and not overwhelm hospitals again. Itís works out to around 15% per week which is 5 week doubling periods which puts us to 4000 cases per day when we get 80% vaccinated or so. That will taper off as we vaccinate but any further increase in R-value will likely lead to lock downs.

I suspect we will see a return to 30% case growth shortly based on behaviours more or less having gone back to last summer.

The variants are going to put on more pressure as well.
About a month ago variants accounted for 10% of new cases in Ontario which is where we are at. Right now they're a bit over 50% so we have a preview of what's to come. Going to be a frustrating couple of weeks of watching Kenney dithering.
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Old 03-18-2021, 11:31 AM   #11225
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Brutal. I'm sure everyone that did manage to get a reservation will respect distancing and that it will only be one household at each table.
People just always want to stretch it which is unfortunate and will cause restrictions to remain. Was at Louise Sunday and skied with another family, different chairs and tables at lunch. When we went to temple lodge for a table they actually thanked us for being honest we were not from same household. That's messed up.

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Old 03-18-2021, 12:01 PM   #11226
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People just always want to stretch it which is unfortunate and will cause restrictions to remain. Was at Louise Sunday and skied with another family, different chairs and tables at lunch. When we went to temple lodge for a table they actually thanked us for being honest we were not from same household. That's messed up.
And did doing that really have an adverse affect on your enjoyment of the day?

I know when we have done that with friends it hasn't messed up our day.
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Old 03-18-2021, 12:17 PM   #11227
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They reduced his sedation a bit and he was able to squeeze the nurse's hand, but oxygen levels are slightly down. My mom felt terrible this morning but is feeling better now. It appears she is not out of the woods yet so just a waiting a game with her as well.
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Old 03-18-2021, 03:36 PM   #11228
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-505 new cases
-10,900 tests
-4.8 % positivity rate
-1 new death
-264 in hospital with 43 in icu

Would be shocked if anything opens up next week.
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Old 03-18-2021, 03:52 PM   #11229
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-505 new cases
-10,900 tests
-4.8 % positivity rate
-1 new death
-264 in hospital with 43 in icu

Would be shocked if anything opens up next week.
I'm starting to think my son's summer job (camp instructor) is going to evaporate again this year. That will require Stage 4 and we're not even close to stage 3 yet.

How many variant cases, did they say? If we're up to the 20% mark or higher that is not good news.
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Old 03-18-2021, 03:59 PM   #11230
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I'm starting to think my son's summer job (camp instructor) is going to evaporate again this year. That will require Stage 4 and we're not even close to stage 3 yet.

How many variant cases, did they say? If we're up to the 20% mark or higher that is not good news.
12% of total, 18% of today's numbers.

https://twitter.com/CBCDaveWhite/sta...62812930146309

Cases in Lethbridge have gone up 40X in the last three weeks.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:01 PM   #11231
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Related to Acey's situation currently Dr. Hinshaw provided a specific update on the Lethbridge region today. 3 weeks ago Lethbridge had 19 active cases and yesterday they had 469 active cases. That is a pretty shocking increase.
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Old 03-18-2021, 04:13 PM   #11232
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12% of total, 18% of today's numbers.

https://twitter.com/CBCDaveWhite/sta...62812930146309

Cases in Lethbridge have gone up 40X in the last three weeks.
This is the number that concerns me recently, and it's approaching 20%.
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Old 03-18-2021, 05:23 PM   #11233
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Has their proven to be any benefit from the current vaccine in fighting off the variants? I've seen mews articles stating both sides.
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Old 03-18-2021, 06:07 PM   #11234
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Has their proven to be any benefit from the current vaccine in fighting off the variants? I've seen mews articles stating both sides.
The UK variant (the one that's most widespread in Canada among the variants) has little to no effect on vaccine efficacy in the real world. The vaccines do generate a lower antibody response to it, but based on what we've seen in trials and in real-world data it looks like it's still sufficient to prevent illness. The main danger with that one is that it likely spreads more easily and it may be more deadly. But the current crop of vaccines are all effective against it.

The South African variant will likely significantly reduce vaccine efficacy. The AstraZeneca vaccine had almost no ability to prevent infection for that one (though it may still reduce serious illness). While others (J&J and Novavax) worked much better (they were about 50% effective), but still saw significant reductions vs. the normal variants. There isn't any real data about how Pfizer and Moderna work against it, though in lab tests they showed large reductions in antibody response to that variant, so it's likely they're less effective too. It's not known by how much though.

There's less evidence about the Brazilian variant because it's not as widespread around the world. But lab tests show it is more akin to the UK variant than the South African one in terms of antibody response to the current vaccines. So hopefully that one is less of a worry.
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Old 03-18-2021, 07:00 PM   #11235
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12% of total, 18% of today's numbers.

https://twitter.com/CBCDaveWhite/sta...62812930146309

Cases in Lethbridge have gone up 40X in the last three weeks.
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Related to Acey's situation currently Dr. Hinshaw provided a specific update on the Lethbridge region today. 3 weeks ago Lethbridge had 19 active cases and yesterday they had 469 active cases. That is a pretty shocking increase.
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This is the number that concerns me recently, and it's approaching 20%.
Those numbers are not right. She quoted the positive test number from Feb 23 of 19, not the active case number of 196

So yes the cases have still more then doubled in the last few weeks and are far higher then they’ve ever been in Lethbridge but a 40x increase is not accurate.

She did make a correction

https://twitter.com/cmoh_alberta/sta...968724992?s=21
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Old 03-18-2021, 07:25 PM   #11236
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Those numbers are not right. She quoted the positive test number from Feb 23 of 19, not the active case number of 196

So yes the cases have still more then doubled in the last few weeks and are far higher then theyíve ever been in Lethbridge but a 40x increase is not accurate.

She did make a correction

https://twitter.com/cmoh_alberta/sta...968724992?s=21
That is much more realistic. It was pretty hard to believe that cases could jump from 19 to almost 500 in three weeks. I would assume that if the government saw that significant of an increase they would have to step in and take some drastic actions to address the spread.
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Old 03-18-2021, 08:29 PM   #11237
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The buzz Iím hearing on social media from doctors in the GTA and Golden Horseshoe are that ICU admissions are increasing very fast with patients being much younger and much sicker from the variants. Thatís what is so concerning about a third wave. Very few young to middle age people will be vaccinated in time.
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Old 03-19-2021, 07:03 AM   #11238
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So do I ditch this thread and go to the 3rd wave thread? sure seems like it's coming.
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Old 03-19-2021, 08:28 AM   #11239
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Nevermind
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Old 03-19-2021, 08:57 AM   #11240
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And did doing that really have an adverse affect on your enjoyment of the day?

I know when we have done that with friends it hasn't messed up our day.
of course not, We're not suffering by any means but we have always abided by the guidelines, we've had a few friends over for a driveway fire and watch the Flames game as I have a garage TV but only friends that live on our street so they can walk home for the washroom etc.

It's extremely easy to do the right thing but human nature being what it is; give an inch people will try and stretch that to a mile.

Sons school now declared an outbreak, the cases were in the other class of his grade so we dodged one there but are not going skiing this weekend just to be on the safe side. Not like there isn't yardwork to do anyway
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