I believe only 10M of those are confirmed, the rest are options. And given Johnson & Johnson's production issues (it recently came out that they're up to 2 months behind where they planned to be by now), the options probably won't get exercised since they'd be here too late to really matter.
Still, given that it's a 1-dose vaccine, 10M doses will cover 10M people. So if it proves effective it should definitely speed things up through quarters 2 and 3.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to opendoor For This Useful Post:
I believe only 10M of those are confirmed, the rest are options. And given Johnson & Johnson's production issues (it recently came out that they're up to 2 months behind where they planned to be by now), the options probably won't get exercised since they'd be here too late to really matter.
Still, given that it's a 1-dose vaccine, 10M doses will cover 10M people. So if it proves effective it should definitely speed things up through quarters 2 and 3.
And I guess "proves" effective is still a question. Last I read they were at about 90% though, so it sounds very promising.
And I guess "proves" effective is still a question. Last I read they were at about 90% though, so it sounds very promising.
That 90% was for antibody production after 29 days during the phase 1 trial, not efficacy (eventually it rose to 100% after 57 days). Every vaccine that proceeds to phase 3 trials comes in around there. The Oxford vaccine for instance had antibody production in 91-100% of participants (depending on how it was measured) after 28 days and 100% after the booster shot, but the efficacy of the trialed dosage only ended up being 62% effective.
Efficacy results (even preliminary ones) from the Phase 3 trials for the Johnson and Johnson vaccine haven't been released yet, so at this point we're just guessing. Chances are it will be effective, but there's always a risk that the single dose won't work as well as they had hoped, which is why they began a two dose Phase 3 trial as well, but that likely won't be concluded for several months.
The Following User Says Thank You to opendoor For This Useful Post:
That 90% was for antibody production after 29 days during the phase 1 trial, not efficacy (eventually it rose to 100% after 57 days). Every vaccine that proceeds to phase 3 trials comes in around there. The Oxford vaccine for instance had antibody production in 91-100% of participants (depending on how it was measured) after 28 days and 100% after the booster shot, but the efficacy of the trialed dosage only ended up being 62% effective.
Efficacy results (even preliminary ones) from the Phase 3 trials for the Johnson and Johnson vaccine haven't been released yet, so at this point we're just guessing. Chances are it will be effective, but there's always a risk that the single dose won't work as well as they had hoped, which is why they began a two dose Phase 3 trial as well, but that likely won't be concluded for several months.
I thought that they were expecting the results in the next couple weeks?
I thought that they were expecting the results in the next couple weeks?
For the single dose shot, yes. The other one I mentioned was a 2-dose regimen they're testing as well in case the single shot isn't sufficient; that's the one that's a few months from showing results.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to opendoor For This Useful Post:
I was reading about the SA variant this morning, and that's looking horrible. The country itself has fewer restrictions than we do at this point, but they're also at the point that the spread is immense and funeral homes are debating staying open 24/7. At this point, they're not sure that the vaccines will work effectively, and they may need to be "recalibrated" (my word because I'm a layman). Scary, at least to me.
I also heard through the grapevine that restaurants here are being told to start preparing for opening Feb 1, if we have a week of cases under 5% positivity. I have no idea how accurate that is, and it's not official, but that's the rumour.
What I am not understanding is HOW this virus sometimes get's into these long term care homes? I assume a huge portion of these homes are following masking, hand washing, sanitizer at entrance and daily staff checks.
If people are doing that and doing it regularly, why are these outbreaks still happening in large numbers? This has and is happening in thousands of LTC in Canada. Do staff and visitors need higher quality PPE and subsequent training? New protocol's? It is scary to see just how little we have actually learned after all this time and the same issues are still happening.
It's not like the care homes are behind walls. The staff don't live there. So the virus presumably comes in with them the same way it affects people not living/working in a care home.
__________________
But living an honest life - for that you need the truth. That's the other thing I learned that day, that the truth, however shocking or uncomfortable, leads to liberation and dignity. -Ricky Gervais
The Following User Says Thank You to metallicat For This Useful Post:
What I am not understanding is HOW this virus sometimes get's into these long term care homes? I assume a huge portion of these homes are following masking, hand washing, sanitizer at entrance and daily staff checks.
If people are doing that and doing it regularly, why are these outbreaks still happening in large numbers? This has and is happening in thousands of LTC in Canada. Do staff and visitors need higher quality PPE and subsequent training? New protocol's? It is scary to see just how little we have actually learned after all this time and the same issues are still happening.
My thought is asymptomatic spread of loved ones and workers. You have a large population that has some of the weakest immunity. Just one catches it and it starts the factory, even with protocol.
You would need to basically isolate staff with the residents with food dropped off for the last 10 months to have any chance.
You can look at the flu each year, it does the same thing sadly.
The Following User Says Thank You to OldDutch For This Useful Post:
