11-03-2020, 06:57 AM
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#8941
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Marseilles Of The Prairies
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__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm
Settle down there, Temple Grandin.
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Last edited by PsYcNeT; 11-03-2020 at 07:11 AM.
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11-03-2020, 07:02 AM
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#8942
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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11-03-2020, 07:09 AM
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#8943
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Marseilles Of The Prairies
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__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm
Settle down there, Temple Grandin.
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11-03-2020, 07:25 AM
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#8944
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
Most of the polls in 2016 were within the margin of error. Certain media companies interpreted them as having no margin of error and put ridiculous graphics that had Clinton at 99% ect.
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That wasn't actually the problem. The problem was the assumption that polling errors are independent. I.e., "there's a 30% chance that each of these three polls are wrong. Therefore, theres a 30% x 30% x 30% chance that all three are wrong, which is very unlikely". That's not how polling errors work. Sure, there's a 30% chance that each is "wrong" (i.e. off by a few points), but if it turns out that the 30% chance materializes in the case of poll "A", the chances of polls "B" and "C" being wrong in a similar fashion is no longer 30%, but much higher.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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11-03-2020, 08:00 AM
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#8945
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Calgary
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Deutsche bank is sick of all of the negative publicity of being associated with Trump, expects his election loss, and plans to sever all ties at that point. The bank is considering how to deal with the huge problem of Trumps debt and have looked into selling the debt to others, but doubts there will be takers. Apparently they may proceed with asset seizure post election if he cannot pay back his debts. Trump personally guaranteed all of his loans lol. Add this to his upcoming pile of criminal and financial problems.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...source=twitter
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11-03-2020, 08:24 AM
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#8946
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
It's a possibility. Depends how many quiet voters there are, the people that dont answer polls honestly.
Think small, not the big picture. Think of your office, how would people react if a co worker said they were prolife? Or a college student who wants their college open again. If the situation is toxic enough, there could be many shy Trump voters. If it's not then Biden gets to 350.
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There is no evidence of a shy voter affect.
Mistakes in polling tend to be assuming a demographic group is uniform and only polling a subset of it and the assumption of uniformity not being true.
The big one last time was whites with college degrees vs whites without college degrees were weighted as whites and it turned out that whites with college degrees were easier to get a hold of than without and whites without supported trump more than whites with and there was the polling error.
It wasn’t shy trump voters not answering polls it was trump voters not being asked.
So things like under sampling Cubans-Americans in Florida or Native white Floridians vs New York white retirees. It won’t be shy Trump voters even if Trump wins.
Last edited by GGG; 11-03-2020 at 08:29 AM.
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11-03-2020, 09:13 AM
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#8947
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: A place for Mom
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
It's a possibility. Depends how many quiet voters there are, the people that dont answer polls honestly.
Think small, not the big picture. Think of your office, how would people react if a co worker said they were prolife? Or a college student who wants their college open again. If the situation is toxic enough, there could be many shy Trump voters. If it's not then Biden gets to 350.
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My University Son is at home all year because of COVID. Most people I know don’t openly talk about abortions all Willy Nilly or spout their ideologies. How you think they’re close for comparison blows my mind.
Last edited by calgarybornnraised; 11-03-2020 at 09:15 AM.
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11-03-2020, 09:52 AM
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#8948
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlameOn
Deutsche bank is sick of all of the negative publicity of being associated with Trump, expects his election loss, and plans to sever all ties at that point. The bank is considering how to deal with the huge problem of Trumps debt and have looked into selling the debt to others, but doubts there will be takers. Apparently they may proceed with asset seizure post election if he cannot pay back his debts. Trump personally guaranteed all of his loans lol. Add this to his upcoming pile of criminal and financial problems.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...source=twitter |
Jeff Bezos should buy the debt. That would be ####ing awesome!
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11-03-2020, 10:03 AM
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#8949
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Pickle Jar Lake
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Titan
Jeff Bezos should buy the debt. That would be ####ing awesome!
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Imagine having so much money you could take the loss, just to troll a former president.
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11-03-2020, 10:05 AM
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#8950
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First Line Centre
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The Amazon sign on Trump tower in NY? Hahahaha.
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11-03-2020, 10:06 AM
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#8951
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First Line Centre
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Even worse? The Washington Post NY office. The giant orange pumpkin man would explode. It would be glorious.
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11-03-2020, 10:21 AM
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#8952
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Referee
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Over the hill
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As we now have 3 threads on the US election going I think I will lock this one and people can move over to the GT thread.
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11-03-2020, 06:19 PM
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#8953
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Estonia
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Last.
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