2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

I also hate trading first round picks in future years, where you assume that the team will be good, and the draft spot is unknown. See the sharks trade for karlsson, the leafs kessel deal, etc.

Absolutely, too many unknown things can happen to destroy your season.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Phoenix has a history of shipping goalies out and seeing them fall off.

Do they though? Smith was old and I'd argue he performed just well in Calgary as he did his final years in Arizona. That Dubnyk guy improved after Arizona. Thomas Greiss has improved since leaving AZ. The only guy in the last decade that fits your narrative is Domingue.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Phoenix has a history of shipping goalies out and seeing them fall off.

Dubnyk and Smith both followed up their times in Arizona with stronger seasons. Their latter regression was only due to age.
Thomas Greiss has had a solid career after moving on from Arizona. Chad Johnson followed up his time their with a strong season in Boston.

[ComixZone]

The underlying numbers on Raanta and Kuemper scream pretty loudly that they are not the product of some brilliant defensive structure either. I even wonder if their injury issues may be related to how many high danger chances they face - goalies constantly over-extending themselves leading to injury?

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I even wonder if their injury issues may be related to how many high danger chances they face - goalies constantly over-extending themselves leading to injury?

That is a very interesting question.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Valimaki passes to Mackey. Mackey back to Valimaki.

I want this.

[mrdonkey]

If Kuemper for 19th happens, will there be anyone left on the “just trust in the process” train?

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

Kuemper has had back to back Vezina quality seasons, in most situations getting a player like that for a mid-late 1st round pick would be a steal.

Like most, I would hate giving up a first, but that's just the price of getting a good starting goalie with numbers like Kuemper's. If we were trading a goalie like him, the fanbase would expect exactly the same. Perhaps the trade will expand to include other pieces, and maybe we'll get a pick or a young player to be excited about.....

[SuperMatt18]

I still think the problem with goalies and moving an asset like a first for a goalie is that performance of goalies is so inconsistent season to season and team to team.

For example here are two goalies over three seasons from age ~24/25 to ~26/27

Goalie A:

GP: 78
GAA: 2.27
SV%: .921
GSAA: -9.36

HDSV%: .819
MDSV%: .902
LDSV%: .972

Goalie B:

GP: 114
GAA: 2.39
SV%: .920
GSAA: 4.64

HDSV%: .834
MDSV%: .918
LDSV%: .962

Goalie A is Darcy Kuemper from 2013 to 2016 in Minnesota, Goalie B is David Rittich in his three seasons in Calgary. For both goalies it was their first three seasons in the NHL in a backup / tandem role.

Kuemper has put up great numbers over the last two and a bit seasons in Arizona but I am hesitant just since he is a bit of a late bloomer and goalies vary so much system to system. Doesn't mean Kuemper is a system goalie, but goalies do just really vary in their performance from team to team. Sometimes a goalie just fits well in a team's structure and with the way they play the game, and I worry that is possible with Kuemper.

For reference here are his stats in Arizona.

GP: 94
GAA: 2.25
SV%: .926
GSAA: 4.84

HDSV: .832
MDSV: .915
LDSV: .975

But in the same breath here are Raanta's stats over the same period.

GP: 92
GAA: 2.19
SV%: .931
GSAA: 15.5

HDSV: .825
MDSV: .944
LDSV: .978

So even though some of the advanced stats that adjust for shot quality really think both Raanta and Kuemper are both great, it does make me cautious to move a 1st since maybe Arizona as a team are able to do something that are pumping these goalies numbers up a little bit even if they aren't suppressing shot quality from a shot location perspective.

Edit: Updated to 5v5 stats since they tend to be a better indication of performance for goalies and remove Penalty Killing effects.

[flamesgod]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

Kuemper has had back to back Vezina quality seasons, in most situations getting a player like that for a mid-late 1st round pick would be a steal.

When both goaltenders numbers are almost on par, I’m a little leery. I like Kuemper but this draft is deep and Arizona wants to shed salary. I’d rather be patient and try to wait them out. It could backfire no doubt, but so could trading your first in a deep draft.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by flamesgod

When both goaltenders numbers are almost on par, I’m a little leery. I like Kuemper but this draft is deep and Arizona wants to shed salary. I’d rather be patient and try to wait them out. It could backfire no doubt, but so could trading your first in a deep draft.

As others have posted, their analytics suggest they propped the team up, not vice versa.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Kuemper has two years on this contract at 4.5M AAV.

I know that (this post is from like 24 hours ago which is like 200 deep in this thread by now).

My point is that it had better work immediately with Kuemper, and you'd better be sure you want to extend him on the first available day (and that he wants to put pen to paper, too). Going into the following season with him and Gaudreau as question marks would

Looking ahead to Kuemper's UFA year:

Merzlikins & Korpisalo (so presumably only one of them reaches UFA)
Koskinen
MAF (would turn 38 that November)
Francouz
Campbell

He'd almost certainly be the prettiest girl at that dance, so I doubt he'd take much of a haircut to secure an early extension (unless maybe he really clicked with Sigalet)

[SuperMatt18]

Honestly the more I look at it the more I wonder if Kuemper is head and shoulders better than Rittich when I look at their play over the last three seasons.

I showed the 5v5 numbers above and they are pretty close actually. (Included again in the spoilers for reference).

Spoiler!

Kuemper:

GP: 94
GAA: 2.25
SV%: .926
GSAA: 4.84

HDSV: .832
MDSV: .915
LDSV: .975

Rittich:

GP: 114
GAA: 2.39
SV%: .920
GSAA: 4.64

HDSV%: .834
MDSV%: .918
LDSV%: .962

The biggest difference seems to be that Kuemper has been lights out on the PK.

Here is the PK comparison for Rittich vs Kuemper in that time.

Kuemper:

GP: 94
SV%: .892
GSAA: 10.88

HDSV%: .843
MDSV%: .879
LDSV%: .928

Rittich:

GP: 114
SV%: .869
GSAA: 0.87

HDSV%: .850
MDSV%: .826
LDSV%: .915

Scares the crap out of me to move a 1st for a goalie who has so much of their value on the PK.

Is that Kuemper actually being a better goalie, or does Phoenix just do something on the PK different from Calgary? Arizona does have the 4th lowest Goals Against per 60 minutes in the league on the PK over this 3 year period.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Honestly the more I look at it the more I wonder if Kuemper is head and shoulders better than Rittich when I look at each of their last three seasons.

I showed the 5v5 numbers above and they are pretty close.

The biggest difference seems to be that Kuemper has been light out on the PK.

Here is the PK comparison for Rittich vs Kuemper in that time.

Spoiler!

Goalie A:

GP: 78
GAA: 2.27
SV%: .921
GSAA: -9.36

HDSV%: .819
MDSV%: .902
LDSV%: .972

Goalie B:

GP: 114
GAA: 2.39
SV%: .920
GSAA: 4.64

HDSV%: .834
MDSV%: .918
LDSV%: .962

And just for reference here was the 5v5 comparison:

Spoiler!

Kuemper:

GP: 94
GAA: 2.25
SV%: .926
GSAA: 4.84

HDSV: .832
MDSV: .915
LDSV: .975

Rittich:

GP: 114
GAA: 2.39
SV%: .920
GSAA: 4.64

HDSV%: .834
MDSV%: .918
LDSV%: .962

I like the idea of a Rittich and Kuemper tandem. It takes some pressure off Rittich, and gives us strong depth. With a condensed schedule, and with the fact everything is tandems now (even if you have a 7M goalie), I think Kuemper and Rittich would be fantastic.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I like the idea of a Rittich and Kuemper tandem. It takes some pressure off Rittich, and gives us strong depth. With a condensed schedule, and with the fact everything is tandems now (even if you have a 7M goalie), I think Kuemper and Rittich would be fantastic.

I don't mind it either.

But I don't know if I would want to spend a first on a guy who might actually not be that much better than the other guy we want to put him in a tandem with.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Scares the crap out of me to move a 1st for a goalie who has so much of their value on the PK.

Is it really likely that a goalie is better on PK vs 5on5 or is that more likely the product of normal fluctuation in a set of numbers? And I suppose a product of how their team defends. Who knows I guess.

Don Edwards was acquired along with Richie Dunn for a package of picks including a first. Is that the only time Flames have traded a first for a goalie?

Turek was expensive but no major draft picks.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I don't mind it either.

But I don't know if I would want to spend a first on a guy who might actually not be that much better than the other guy we want to put him in a tandem with.

You need two top end goalies, especially if we are walking into a condensed schedule. Goaltending can no longer be a question mark with this team, and if Rittich is a tandem-leader then I think it's still a pretty big friggin' question mark.

[Roof-Daddy]

I guarantee that if the Flames trade for Kuemper, you will hear the phrase "low mileage goalie" get dropped by Treliving.

"30 isn't old for a goalie, and in Darcy's case especially, he's a low mileage goalie. He has less than 300 pro games under his belt and we feel he is just hitting his stride"

While I don't necessarily disagree, DON'T TRADE OUR 1ST ROUND PICK! lol

[jg13]

Not a huge surprise but..

Via TheScore: Wild actively shopping Dumba

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2022090

Minnesota Wild general manager Bill Guerin is actively shopping defenseman Mathew Dumba and has received a lot of calls on his availability, sources told The Athletic's Michael Russo.

The Wild signed defenseman Jonas Brodin to a seven-year, $42 million extension, which includes a no-movement clause, on Tuesday. That makes him, along with fellow blue-liners Ryan Suter and Jared Spurgeon, automatically protected in next year's expansion draft - and Dumba potentially expendable in a trade.

Dumba has three seasons remaining at a $6 million cap hit, and as a 26-year-old right-handed shot, he should have plenty of suitors.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

You need two top end goalies, especially if we are walking into a condensed schedule. Goaltending can no longer be a question mark with this team, and if Rittich is a tandem-leader then I think it's still a pretty big friggin' question mark.

That’s my worry though. If you spend a 1st you better be getting a goalie that’s clearly head and shoulders better than Rittich.

At 5v5 Kuemper over the last three seasons is pretty much equal to Rittich. So why spend a first on a guy who actually might not be better.

I worry that his PK performance might be luck / system driven. Especially since PK is a relatively small sample size (420 minutes for Kuemper).