11-19-2019, 11:42 AM
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#1
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Stat Hack: What's Wrong With the Flames?
Stat Hack: What's Wrong with the Flames?
Quick look at some team stats and a focus on the club's big 5 forwards and how they stack for reasons production is down.
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11-19-2019, 11:54 AM
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#2
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In the Sin Bin
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Yep. Gaudreau looks horrible this year despite the points.
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11-19-2019, 12:16 PM
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#3
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Franchise Player
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Great article. I think that's a good example of applying stats to bring clarity to a situation.
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11-19-2019, 12:39 PM
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#4
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Geneseo, NY
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Great analysis. Thanks. And a little suggestion for those of us still trying to learn advanced stats: it would be helpful if you could use the stat abbreviations in the text discussion so folks like me know what data lines are what. Again, thanks.
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11-19-2019, 12:59 PM
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#5
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina
Great article. I think that's a good example of applying stats to bring clarity to a situation.
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I like how he managed to work in the expression "post apex"
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11-19-2019, 01:05 PM
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#6
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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I think Monahan is interesting.
There's always been the "carried by Gaudreau" noting, but maybe this year he's actually getting harmed by the winger?
His numbers are really good considering the engine on his line is leaking oil.
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11-19-2019, 01:09 PM
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#7
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
I think Monahan is interesting.
There's always been the "carried by Gaudreau" noting, but maybe this year he's actually getting harmed by the winger?
His numbers are really good considering the engine on his line is leaking oil.
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Agreed. I have mentioned this before, and I think Gaudreau carries the puck to much and Monahan defers to him. I would bet that they would be more successful if Monahan was driving that line, and if Gaudreau would follow—given how poorly he has been playing, the solution for Gaudreau may be in starting to do less than more, and then go from there.
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11-19-2019, 01:13 PM
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#8
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Russell
Great analysis. Thanks. And a little suggestion for those of us still trying to learn advanced stats: it would be helpful if you could use the stat abbreviations in the text discussion so folks like me know what data lines are what. Again, thanks.
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ixG is individual expected goals for ... that's somewhat obscure
SCF is scoring chance for
HDCF is high danger corsi for and has become the descriptor for the most dangerous of scoring chances.
L, M and H are for low, medium and high in terms of scoring chances, save percentage and shooting percentage.
If I've missed any other new ones let me know!
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11-19-2019, 02:18 PM
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#9
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Shooting percentage five on five for the big 5
Gaudreau 5.00% LY 12.43% Career 11.75%
Monahan 4.35% LY 14.18% Career 13.35%
Lindholm 17.24% LY 12.04% Career 8.27%
Tkachuk 9.76% LY 12.32% Career 10.05%
Backlund 2.44% LY 9.70% Career 7.18%
More scoring is coming, regardless.
They will still have warts, but the team shouldn't over react in this down turn.
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11-20-2019, 09:32 AM
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#10
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
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I'm curious. Is there any stat story on the Blues of last season? Were players performing incredibly poorly until January came around, and the flipped the switch?
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11-20-2019, 09:48 AM
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#11
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Phoenix, AZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joborule
I'm curious. Is there any stat story on the Blues of last season? Were players performing incredibly poorly until January came around, and the flipped the switch?
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2 things played into the SC win:
1) Coaching change really woke them up
2) Binnington
I think the offense and defense were fine, but I believe that Allen and Yeo really costed them some games.
For the Flames, it’s a matter of adding an additional vet/offensive spark into the lineup.
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11-20-2019, 10:00 AM
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#12
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In Your MCP
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Watching Hot Dog Hans
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I'm pretty firmly in the wait and see camp. This team is far too good to be this bad, and it's going to correct to the mean at some point this season (my thoughts).
You can't dominate all year and then cakewalk to the cup anymore, there's too much parody in the league. So expecting that is not realistic.
But if you peak at the right time, you CAN make it look easy (LA, Chicago, and to a lesser extent STL have done it the last 10 years). You see it all the time with low seed teams as well that sneak in, and then light it up in the playoffs, until a team with more talent dusts them in the finals.
I'm content to sit back and wait until at least the trade deadline before I do anything silly (if not the off season). Because with the talent on this team, if we peak late (as opposed to early like last year) our playoffs are going to be a lot more enjoyable than the crap kicking we took in the last 1/3 of our games in 2019.
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11-20-2019, 10:07 AM
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#13
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Moscow
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I don't think there is anything wrong with the Flames. This is signature Calgary Flames. This team, for thirty years now, has been synonymous with soul-crushing, heart-breaking disappointment.
__________________
"Life of Russian hockey veterans is very hard," said Soviet hockey star Sergei Makarov. "Most of them don't have enough to eat these days. These old players are Russian legends."
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11-20-2019, 10:46 AM
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#14
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan
2 things played into the SC win:
1) Coaching change really woke them up
2) Binnington
I think the offense and defense were fine, but I believe that Allen and Yeo really costed them some games.
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The Blues moved from #26 to #11 in scoring in the New Year, and from #20 to #3 in goals allowed. St Louis's goaltending was so bad in the first half that their defensive work at the time is debatable. But their offense most definitely was not "fine."
Quote:
For the Flames, it’s a matter of adding an additional vet/offensive spark into the lineup.
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Maybe. I am not sure. I still believe the skill is there, but for whatever reason this group really struggles too manage the mental/emotional aspects of the game. Could a shakeup fix this? Perhaps.
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11-20-2019, 10:48 AM
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#15
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tron_fdc
...You can't dominate all year and then cakewalk to the cup anymore, there's too much parody in the league. So expecting that is not realistic...
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I like parodies.
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11-20-2019, 10:54 AM
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#16
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: YYC
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I'm worried about the team, but I'm not in full panic mode.
Nashville, Tampa Bay, and Toronto are all lower than Calgary in the standings.
There's still time to figure their #### out and turn this season around.
__________________
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11-20-2019, 11:24 AM
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#17
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Calgary
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Said it a few times now in threads the last few days, but I truly think that what is such a big change over last year, and what directly feeds the poor numbers from certainly the top line, and the team results that have followed, is the lack of defenceman jumping up and joining the rush...and the disruption that causes in the opponents defensive structure, that our forwards fed off of last year.
Last year, that X factor of a defensive blue line turnover, and an unexpected rush of a d man, either with the puck or as a trailer late, if not creating a direct chance, usually meant the opponents were unorganized defensively for a period of time after, often the rest of that shift. That zone scrambling of the opponent trying to figure out where they had to go, subsequently opened up all sorts of extra zone puck possession through the time and space for the forwards to better operate, and then often dominate the rest of the shif in the opponents zone before the opponent could recover.
I watched for that to happen yesterday, and happened literally only once, in the second period, where JG buttonhooked in the zone on the half boards, and found Andersson wide open joining late on the other side of the ice.
Andersson missed the shot but the Flames forwards got the loose puck, and sure enough, for the next 10 seconds, looked dangerous, because Colorado was still scrambling to regain structure from sorting out the positioning after the Anderson activation and thus our forwards had that extra seconds of space and time to operate with thr puck and get into a good scoring position.
That minuscule extra time and space is what our top forwards need to make a play vs a play dying, and then of course not making those plays, the confidence plummets as well game over game, snowballing the issue.
I will say that teams are now expecting the offensive zone pinches from our D more, which also contributed to extra zone possession for our forwards last year. I assume they are also doing something to counteract our defenceman jumping up, or our D just doesn’t have the confidence they did last year to take the risk and jump up. However, when they did, it lead to chaos for the opponent team, and often, the next time they were organized was when they were taking the face off after a Flames goal.
And that all then snowballs too within a game. The next time in, the opponent may be more aware of that defenceman potentially coming in, and then adjusting the structure or marking coverages appropriately...but that then means backing off our forwards who have the puck a bit, which then gives the Flames that same extra bit of time and space to make a different play then they are forced into (and are making now).
It really is a factor that is missing this year...the players at the back are the same, but the confidence or ability isn’t yet.
It is also really hard to statistically track, because it’s a tactic and strategy to get the defensive zone coverage stretched just enough to allow our skilled forwards time to make a different play on the puck. That time leads to opening up better passing plays and the ability to take better shots, which results in more goals, which results in playing with more leads and which results in dictating the play and forcing the opponent to change their system to both prevent similar scoring chances from the Flames, let alone catch up in the game themselves, which leads to further Flames team confidence and swagger, and how and why they looked so dominant last year by the end of 3 periods.
Last edited by browna; 11-20-2019 at 11:34 AM.
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11-20-2019, 04:12 PM
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#18
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In Your MCP
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Watching Hot Dog Hans
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
I like parodies.
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Lol you know what I mean.
At least I didn’t say there too much Pardy from Bonavista Nl
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