Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[blankall]

Originally Posted by David Struch

I would prefer one of these options over Mike Smith.

Cory Schneider, 32 years old, 3x6 straight up no savings.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/cory-schneider

Jonathan Quick, 33 years old, 4x5.8 good savings last three years of contract.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jonathan-quick

I would be a bit frustrated with either option. Both are having terrible seasons. I know that both have a pedigree of somewhat recent success. However, given their ages, injury histories, and the new rule changes I in no way feel confident in either rebounding. Calgary could then be left with another wasted season, plus another formerly great goaltender with a bloated contract we have to wait out.

I'd much rather see the Flames pursue a younger more average option with more flexibility to play a 1A/1B role with Rittich.

Quite frankly, this is simply not a good time to acquire a surefire #1 goaltender. There are probably less than 5 guys in the league I'd consider locks to be #1s for 2+ years: Gibson, Vasilevskiy, and....cannot really think of anyone else. Even guys like Bishop, Fluery, and Rinne could take a step back at any point.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by David Struch

I would prefer one of these options over Mike Smith.

Cory Schneider, 32 years old, 3x6 straight up no savings.
https://www.capfriendly.com/players/cory-schneider
]

How much are the Flames paying now, I thought Arizona were covering a good portion (50%? - edit 25%) of Smiths contract? If I’m not wrong, how is $6 million plus a back up not significantly more than the Flames are paying now?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by David Struch

Yes, I'm suggesting the Flames get one of Schneider or Quick next season instead of Mike Smith returning.

The assets involved to acquire either guy would probably begin with Calgary's 1st round draft choice.

I very much doubt that. Cory Schneider commanded a first round pick to acquire way back when he was an emerging, young and cost-controlled starting goalie in waiting. He is significantly less valuable now, and the term on Jonathan Quick's contract similarly diminishes his own value.

I would be interested in a trade for Schneider, and I don't think it would be prohibitively expensive.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by David Struch

Yes, I'm suggesting the Flames get one of them next season instead of Mike Smith returning.

The assets involved to acquire either guy would probably begin with Calgary's 1st round draft choice.

Well I don't think Smith returning is even a possibility barring some miracle PO performance.

Trade for Quick - maybe, though his injuries give me pause. I doubt LA trades Quick to Calgary. It's not like trading Fantenberg as a rental. They'd be facing Quick for a couple years which they wouldn't like.

Trade for Schneider who has 3 more years of $6M (to age 35) and an NTC, and who sports bad to below average numbers over the last 3 years? I wouldn't trade for him at all, let alone pay a first.

[DeluxeMoustache]

If a known problem is that a string of goalies picked off the scrap heap have not been performing, why would the Flames consider the solution to be picking another goalie off the scrap heap?

No thanks to reclamation projects like Quick or Schneider

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Since January 1st the Flames have ...

Save Percentage:
#24 Mike Smith .905
#33 David Rittich .895

GSAA
#23 Mike Smith -1.96
#33 David Rittich -7.20

That's a missing the playoffs starter (Smith), and an above average backup (Rittich).

It's the Achilles Heel

If you can show me any proof that using a smaller sample of goalie performance instead of the full season is a better predictor of future results than I will take this seriously. Or if it is that Jan 1st should be the cut-off instead of Dec 1st or Feb 1st.

Until then I will take larger full season sample over smaller 2.5 months sample.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But you didn't.

As much "science" and "logic" as you attempt to project amounts to nothing more than your own passage of judgment on individual shot quality or speed in a vacuum of actual data, and these are more frequently cherry picked from a selection of games. Your common strategy is to insist upon the tacit acceptance of your own subjective opinion that you would pass off as a scientifically validated interpretation of an event.

Hence, my original charge that you seem to take issue with, but insist on looking past: either you object to apportioning some blame on the goalie for the loss in Tampa, or he is not completely blameless. You can't have it both ways.

you are a cyber bully!

[Jiggy]

Originally Posted by CanadaMatt

We can pick out all sorts of individual analogues and make conclusions. Does that same valuation process hold true if you use Koskinen instead of DeSmith as the market comparison?

My hunch is that Riddich fires his agent if said agent fails to convert a 24-7-5 season into more than 1.75 million a year.

Could he command more in the KHL? Genuine question.

Koskinen was going to be a UFA. And Tree is not a dummy like Chia-pet. Rittich doesn't have a 24-7-5 record without the run support he has had. I like him, and I'm not trying to discredit how well he played in the first half of the season. But he still has lot's to prove and his contract should be aligned with that.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If you can show me any proof that using a smaller sample of goalie performance instead of the full season is a better predictor of future results than I will take this seriously. Or if it is that Jan 1st should be the cut-off instead of Dec 1st or Feb 1st.

Until then I will take larger full season sample over smaller 2.5 months sample.

I think it really depends on what you are trying to figure out. If you want to know who has had the better season, yeah full season stats. If you want to know who is trending or playing well leading into the POs, the last string of games is much more relevant. If you have a guy who has been playing lights out lately but really struggled in Oct.-Nov., his season stats might not give you an accurate picture of how he should be expected to perform short term. It might definitely tell you about his prospects for next year though.

[DeluxeMoustache]

This should be required reading before having a conversation about save percentage.


https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...s-a-team-stat/

The goaltending position continues to be misunderstood. Goalies have one job: Remain as square to the puck as possible. They can control their reads, decision making and movements to the puck to beat the pass and make the save—or solve the equation—but have zero control over the difficulty of the equations thrown their way. That’s why I am never surprised by radically fluctuating save percentages; I believe that environment influences numbers.

It includes a healthy dose of E=NG as well.


Edit:
I have previously mentioned at a certain point in time that the sample size du jour that people were relying on (basically cherry picked to start when Smith started playing better in December) was about 600 shots.

A game like the 6 goal Tampa output, on a size of 600 shots, is basically .010 contribution in save percentage.

That game itself is enough to make the difference between an acceptable and an unacceptable goalie.

[Duffalufagus]

anyone wish we had signed Bishop now? Guy is riding three straight shutouts and likely going to be nominated for the Vezina.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

anyone wish we had signed Bishop now? Guy is riding three straight shutouts and likely going to be nominated for the Vezina.

Nope.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Nope.

really? I think if that kind of option presented itself now the Flames would jump at it.

[David Struch]

Ah yes, Ben Bishop and who were the other almost acquisitions?

Frederik Andersen
Marc-André Fleury
Cam Talbot

[GioforPM]

I always liked Bishop and I agree it has turned out pretty well for Dallas. But his injuries concerned me at the time, and the fact he was being supplanted did also. The fact a smart GM like Yzerman was letting him go for not a whole lot of return also didn't fill me with confidence in him

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

you are a cyber bully!

Not an effective one. I honestly don’t know what his point is.

I did object to apportioning some blame on the goalie for the TB loss. I thought that was clear

Flames scored 3, he let in 4 that he had no practical chance of stopping.

[Toonage]

Didn't the Flames try getting Bishop 3 times and on the 3rd try he said no?

2016 draft they were dealing w/ Tampa for Bishop but it fell through.
2017 deadline they tried to trade for him but that was the King in the air fiasco
2017 (a month or so) prior to the draft they tried again to sign him (well, trade for his rights) and he said no thanks and accepted a trade to Dallas and signed his current deal?

Then Treliving said screw it and got Smith

Or am I out to lunch on that 3rd one?

(also sorry for the micro edits)

[soulchoice]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Didn't the Flames try getting Bishop 3 times and on the 3rd try he said no?

2016 draft they were dealing w/ Tampa for Bishop but it fell through.
2017 deadline they tried to trade for him but that was the King in the air fiasco
2017 (a month or so) prior to the draft they tried again to sign him (well, trade for his rights) and he said no thanks and accepted a trade to Dallas and signed his current deal?

Then Treliving said screw it and got Smith

Or am I out to lunch on that 3rd one?

(also sorry for the micro edits)

You're not out to lunch at all. Word is Bishop has always had little to no desire to play in Calgary. Dallas traded for him knowing full well they had a high chance to retain him.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

you are a cyber bully!

An acerbic one.

[Duffalufagus]

I doubt Bishop would have come here anyway. If he was in our net right now I'd feel like the favorite in the west. But, whatever, it is what it is and we are going to war with Rittich and Smith. There was no upgrade available at the trade deadline anyway.