Monthly Market Update

[Red]

Saudi Oil Minister

From my perspective, demand is gradually rising, global economic growth seems more robust and the oil price is stabilizing. Saudi Arabia’s quest for market share is simply an effort to satisfy rising customer demand. We seek calm markets, because this benefits everyone.

Today, it is not the role of Saudi Arabia, or certain other OPEC nations, to subsidize higher cost producers by ceding market share. And the facts on the ground are very different anyway. Non-OPEC supplies are much larger than they were in the 1980s and a much more multi-national approach is required.




http://www.businessinsider.com/naimi...t-thing-2015-3

[polak]

Originally Posted by Red

Thanks for saying that. I thought I was alone here.

There is a lot of belief that this "oil thing" will pass in a few weeks and no damage will be done. Just like the 08 crash that saw us drop house values by almost 20% that we just recovered last summer. That blip took 5 years to recover from. And that really was just a blip that was quickly fixed by government programs etc.

How do we fix these oil prices? How long before they bounce back to above $80? How long after will the Suncors start hiring back? How long after that will these people actually qualify for a mortgage again?

We could easily be in 2017-2018 by then. What mortgage rates will we have in 2018? Will we keep these emergency rates forever?

There is no guarantee that they "bounce" back to $80 any time soon. Unless you work for the CREB. They seem be very confident that oil prices will be back to sky high levels by spring, remember?

While there is still an ocean of full oil tankers sitting idle... in March.

[JRW]

Originally Posted by polak

Here is how I see everyone who is heavily invested in Calgary Real Estate right now:

hehehe.... that's beautiful... I totally forgot about that guy...

[Travis Munroe]

Well the first week of nice weather and I think people will be very surprised by the next 2 months statistics.
I am extremely busy and buyers are buying - I am working on 2 offers this evening.
By all means it is no where close to what it was this time last year but it is stronger than what the media is portraying.

[V]

Originally Posted by Red

Thanks for saying that. I thought I was alone here.

I don't think you're alone. I think most rational people see a good downturn in the housing market. There's just disagreement in how hard it will hit.

You do come off a little bit like a guy who might finally be right after 10 years, and can't wait for it to happen.

[JRW]

So what happened on March 14th? MLS went a little crazy. When you select "Listed since 03/14/2015" you get a HUGE number of new listings just for one day, must be over a thousand (in Calgary alone).

Is this some software bug or the beginning of the spring listings?

[sa226]

It could be the change\update to the listing system that was scheduled to happen.

[lorenavedon]

new listings have dried up substantially so the fear of a huge inventory build up is probably not going to be an issue (10k plus listings), but the existing stuff is not selling. So it's a stalemate right now.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by lorenavedon

new listings have dried up substantially so the fear of a huge inventory build up is probably not going to be an issue (10k plus listings), but the existing stuff is not selling. So it's a stalemate right now.

New listings way down compared to earlier in the year, but the current pace (i.e. month to date) is still equal to that of a year ago.

So super over simplification, but supply and demand has two main factors here, new listings and Total Sales.

If we say that to maintain current prices, or even March 2014 pricing lets look at the same month from a year ago:

New listings for the month of March = current pace from a year ago (creb.com) (+0.15% increase)

Total Sales for the month of March = way down from a year ago (creb.com) (-27% decrease)

Doesn't this imply that the stalemate is broken?

Prices have yet to reflect it I admit, so doesn't it at least it implies the stalemate is heavily leaning to one side?

I guess I am just saying, the your post implies that the market active listings will remain semi-steady. However, when the supply side of a supply and demand equation isn't "dried up" but in fact constant with previous years, and the demand side has dried up, should we not expect a huge spike in listings?

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by JRW

So what happened on March 14th? MLS went a little crazy. When you select "Listed since 03/14/2015" you get a HUGE number of new listings just for one day, must be over a thousand (in Calgary alone).

Is this some software bug or the beginning of the spring listings?

I have found a couple listings that were previous listings with no price change... but no idea on the percentage.

This could also just Realtor's re-posting though and not a technical bug... I guess we find out tomorrow when stats come out.

[Travis Munroe]

We switched programs used on the back end a couple days ago (much needed) so I would assume anything "off" was related to this switch.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

We switched programs used on the back end a couple days ago (much needed) so I would assume anything "off" was related to this switch.

It was totally a glitch, the number of new listings just posted since today has been since reduced drastically.

[JRW]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

It was totally a glitch, the number of new listings just posted since today has been since reduced drastically.

If you filter from Mar 13th instead of 14th, it's still there....

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by JRW

If you filter from Mar 13th instead of 14th, it's still there....

I can be fairly sure it is a glitch then.

I checked late in the day on Mar 13 and that quantity wasn't there.

Despite this, inventory is going up at a slow, but steady pace for the month of March.

[JRW]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

I can be fairly sure it is a glitch then.

I checked late in the day on Mar 13 and that quantity wasn't there.

Despite this, inventory is going up at a slow, but steady pace for the month of March.

That's normally how it works I noticed. If you filter just for one last day, the 24h timeframe keeps moving and shows less and less houses throughout the day (or night) as you check. The hour of when they were posted makes a difference. Eventually you have to go one day earlier to show all the houses that got added the next day.

[Kavvy]

So the stats for today on creb.com actually show that active listings over night are down, so the 1000+ new listings in 24 hours was a technical glitch.

However, I am slowly growing to hate that site.

At a certain zoom level, with "listed since" set to today, I had 130 postings and hour ago, now I have 48.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

New listings way down compared to earlier in the year, but the current pace (i.e. month to date) is still equal to that of a year ago.

So super over simplification, but supply and demand has two main factors here, new listings and Total Sales.

If we say that to maintain current prices, or even March 2014 pricing lets look at the same month from a year ago:

New listings for the month of March = current pace from a year ago (creb.com) (+0.15% increase)

Total Sales for the month of March = way down from a year ago (creb.com) (-27% decrease)

Doesn't this imply that the stalemate is broken?

Prices have yet to reflect it I admit, so doesn't it at least it implies the stalemate is heavily leaning to one side?

I guess I am just saying, the your post implies that the market active listings will remain semi-steady. However, when the supply side of a supply and demand equation isn't "dried up" but in fact constant with previous years, and the demand side has dried up, should we not expect a huge spike in listings?

Every day since I wrote this reply active listings have since decreased:

March 14 - 5,776 active listings (was increasing every day up to when I wrote my reply)
Now: 5,680 active listings

[Red]

New listings outnumber sales every day. But a lot of listings expire too so maybe that's why.

Or maybe they are still having issues with the Matrix software.

[lorenavedon]

Originally Posted by Red

New listings outnumber sales every day. But a lot of listings expire too so maybe that's why.

Or maybe they are still having issues with the Matrix software.

I'm seeing tons of listings getting de-listed as delusional sellers believe that oil is headed back to $200/barrel in a couple months and real estate in Calgary will go back to Hong Kong levels.

[red sky]

Originally Posted by lorenavedon

I'm seeing tons of listings getting de-listed as delusional sellers believe that oil is headed back to $200/barrel in a couple months and real estate in Calgary will go back to Hong Kong levels.

Totally. I am seeing the exact same thing and for the same reasons.