[GDT] Jays Series Thread - vs Red Sox April 30 - May 2

[KelVarnsen]

Delabar sucks.

[JayP]

Routine double play into a bases clearing double. Season is basically over with Buherle on the mound dishing up homers tomorrow.

[KelVarnsen]

Team just finds a way to lose all the time. It's depressing.

[KelVarnsen]

God bless EE!

[Hockey]

Ee!!!!!!!!

[The Big Chill]

Huge hit by Colby.

[The Big Chill]

That was a good win.

[KelVarnsen]

It was a good win, hopefully they can turn into another win, then another win.

[zukes]

There was a commenter on DJF who I am stealing liberally from and telling people everywhere that I can becuase he put the Jays record in prospective. These stupid playoff odds are just that.

The Jays start basically equates to a 1-2 start in the NFL. The Jays were picked by many as a playoff team, so it's a similar story to the New England Patriots starting at 1-2 this past year. People need to relax.

There is no way they can continue to be this bad. Regression is a real thing and works both ways. Past performances show that there is no way they can be this bad collctively all season. And you know what? To get back to their established norms, these players are all going to have to perform above their baseline, meaning that we are likely going to see a stretch where they absolutely dominate.

Neither will be real, but if that good stretch comes soon, we can get back into the race and then go from there.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by zukes

There was a commenter on DJF who I am stealing liberally from and telling people everywhere that I can becuase he put the Jays record in prospective. These stupid playoff odds are just that.

Anyone that thinks the playoff odds are "stupid" want to place a bet on the Jays making the playoffs? They are in a bad spot because of the poor start.

Sure, they could win five games in a row at some point. They will also likely lose 4-5 games in a row again at some point this season. Can they play .600 baseball the rest of the way, with below average to bad pitching?

They won last night, but gave up 7 runs at home. Not a great recipe for success.

I'm cheering for the Jays, but I believe it is a long-shot now. Why can't they continue to be this bad?

[zukes]

Originally Posted by troutman

Anyone that thinks the playoff odds are "stupid" want to place a bet on the Jays making the playoffs? They are in a bad spot because of the poor start.

Sure, they could win five games in a row at some point. They will also likely lose 4-5 games in a row again at some point this season. Can they play .600 baseball the rest of the way, with below average to bad pitching?

They won last night, but gave up 7 runs at home. Not a great recipe for success.

I'm cheering for the Jays, but I believe it is a long-shot now. Why can't they continue to be this bad?

I'd bet, depending on the odds. Straight up, no. But I bet we all see this team differently in a month. If they are at .500, the narrative changes and they no longer need to "play .600 ball". It's a small sample size, and it's really early.

[Rapidfire999]

Originally Posted by zukes

I'd bet, depending on the odds. Straight up, no. But I bet we all see this team differently in a month. If they are at .500, the narrative changes and they no longer need to "play .600 ball". It's a small sample size, and it's really early.

What are the odds? I'd check but can't go on gambling sites at work

[troutman]

Originally Posted by zukes

I'd bet, depending on the odds.

So, odds aren't stupid then.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by troutman

Why can't they continue to be this bad?

They could, it just isn't likely. Everyone is playing below their career average right now.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

They could, it just isn't likely. Everyone is playing below their career average right now.

I think everyone is focused on the hitting and offence. The pitching and defence is the problem IMO.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

I was in Vegas last week and the odds for the Jays to win the WS were at 25-1, so I had to throw $20 down. I know they probably won't, but I think they were at 5-1 or 7-1 before the season, so 25-1 was too enticing.

[moon]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

They could, it just isn't likely. Everyone is playing below their career average right now.

Not really.

Arencibia is playing better than his other years, Encarnacion is at or better than every year except his outlier last year, Rasmus is on pace to what he has done the past two years, Bautista is around where he was before his two breakout years, Cabrera is around where he was pre-steroids, Lind not much difference from the previous 4 years, Lawrie is coming back from injury so somewhat explains his lower numbers. Izturis, Davis, Bonafacio, DeRoza are all platoon/back-up guys that are doing about what you should expect from them.

The hitters are only below their averages if you look at their best years as what they should be and not what they have done overall.

The pitchers Morrow has always been up and down with great stuff but poor pitching skills, Buerhle is old with questions about his last season he was in the AL, Dickey will always have off games with the Knuckle combined with being older, Johnson had questions about his arm strength/health last season if not before, Happ is Happ.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by moon

Not really.

Arencibia is playing better than his other years, Encarnacion is at or better than every year except his outlier last year, Rasmus is on pace to what he has done the past two years, Bautista is around where he was before his two breakout years, Cabrera is around where he was pre-steroids, Lind not much difference from the previous 4 years, Lawrie is coming back from injury so somewhat explains his lower numbers. Izturis, Davis, Bonafacio, DeRoza are all platoon/back-up guys that are doing about what you should expect from them.

The hitters are only below their averages if you look at their best years as what they should be and not what they have done overall.

The pitchers Morrow has always been up and down with great stuff but poor pitching skills, Buerhle is old with questions about his last season he was in the AL, Dickey will always have off games with the Knuckle combined with being older, Johnson had questions about his arm strength/health last season if not before, Happ is Happ.

1st bolded part is incorrect. Encarnacion is currently batting .238. In 9 seasons in the MLB he has batted below .238 twice.

The 2nd bolded part is incorrect. Hitting .200. Career avg. is .250.

Melky is hitting below his career average and if he continued hitting at this pace he would be on pace for his worst season avg. wise.

So, actually, YES a lot of the key member of the Blue Jays offence are all hitting below their career numbers.

The last bolded part is interesting. Should averages not include their best years?

[moon]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

1st bolded part is incorrect. Encarnacion is currently batting .238. In 9 seasons in the MLB he has batted below .238 twice.

The 2nd bolded part is incorrect. Hitting .200. Career avg. is .250.

Melky is hitting below his career average and if he continued hitting at this pace he would be on pace for his worst season avg. wise.

So, actually, YES a lot of the key member of the Blue Jays offence are all hitting below their career numbers.

I looked at more than batting average (mainly OPS) because it seems to only tell part of the story overall, but I guess you could be right that in terms of batting average some guys are lower than normal.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by moon

I looked at more than batting average (mainly OPS) because it seems to only tell part of the story overall, but I guess you could be right that in terms of batting average some guys are lower than normal.

So the Big Chill wasn't wrong in saying a lot of they guys are hitting below their career averages?