Hockey Prospectus on Flames Top-10 Prospects

[Weiser Wonder]

Maybe it's Playfair's coaching style that keeps Irving's save percentage low? Irving's .913 is the best save percentage out of any goalie Playfair has coached beyond Kiprusoff's .917. I'm not saying he had a great year, but one statistic isn't enough to write it off as mediocre.

Added to that, he just turned 23 in April. He's still got some development time left, so I don't think NHL starter is anywhere near out of the question.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Irving did not have a "great" season. Kent explains better then I ever could so I'll crib from him...



He played a lot of games so give him credit for endurance. But that alone doesn't make a great season. I wouldn't close the book on him yet but he needs more dramatic improvement this year to stay in the picture.

I dont care what "Kent" has to say, Irving was the Heat's MVP.

Stats mean nothing when you carry your team night in night out, He had a great season.

[trackercowe]

I honestly don't understand how Detroit is always ranked near the top of these prospect evaluations.

You'd figure eventually other teams would figure out how they continue to draft and develop top guys for their own teams, but still they can't touch Detroit's system.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

I feel that some people overrate the importance of SV% and GAA when both stats are clearly heavily influenced by the team. Quality of shots, where the shots come from, how much time you spend in the defensive zone all can contribute to a lower SV%. As was said above, Irving seemed to be the Heat's MVP. Looks like he developed quite well last season and I think any talk of Ortio having passed him is extremely premature.

[Metro Gnome]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I feel that some people overrate the importance of SV% and GAA when both stats are clearly heavily influenced by the team. Quality of shots, where the shots come from, how much time you spend in the defensive zone all can contribute to a lower SV%. As was said above, Irving seemed to be the Heat's MVP. Looks like he developed quite well last season and I think any talk of Ortio having passed him is extremely premature.

I personally agree that the talk of him being passed by Ortio is premature. The latter hasn't really played in NA yet, so we won't really know where he's at until he does.

On Irving's mediocre SV%, I'm sympathetic to the argument that SV% may be lowered by a lousy team. I still say he'll have to up his save rate in order to legitimately push for an NHL job. Over 3000+ shots in the AHL so far, his save percentage is about .910. An NHL goalie with a sv% of .910 over that large a sample of shots isn't any body you'd want to trade for or spend much money on frankly, to say nothing of a minor leaguer.

That said, he improved a lot in 2010-11 over his previous year where he was usurped by Shantz. If he takes another step forward this coming season, he should up his chances of jumping to the bigs significantly. Th Heat should be at least marginally improved as well, so that should help him.

[Vulcan]

Irving had a lot of pressure on him every game. The Heat were the lowest scoring team in the AHL and every game he knew one bad goal and the game could be over. I'd say he handled it pretty well, so I wouldn't worry about his stats too much.

[Knut]

Didnt he improve his stats as the year wore on too ?

I seem to remember that at some point he was sub 0.900 in SV %.

[VladtheImpaler]

I guess it's not really a question of "is Irving a good prospect or not?"; it seems the author ranked the goalies based on what Flames' scouts/insiders told him, so it seems the Flames themselves rank Ortio ahead of Irving... You can look at that as "Irving has been disappointing" or "Ortio has been a pleasant surprise"...

[sworkhard]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

I guess it's not really a question of "is Irving a good prospect or not?"; it seems the author ranked the goalies based on what Flames' scouts/insiders told him, so it seems the Flames themselves rank Ortio ahead of Irving... You can look at that as "Irving has been disappointing" or "Ortio has been a pleasant surprise"...

I'm not sure how much info he gets from the Flames scouts. He talks to scouts, but nobody said it was the Flames scouts. In addition he bases his opinions on the games he watches/scouts. I think it's his personal opinion and ranking methodology rather than an indication of where the flames have him ranked.

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Irving did not have a "great" season. Kent explains better then I ever could so I'll crib from him...



He played a lot of games so give him credit for endurance. But that alone doesn't make a great season. I wouldn't close the book on him yet but he needs more dramatic improvement this year to stay in the picture.

You do realize that your comparing Irving to the goalies on the elite teams of the league don't you? All but one of the 9 goalies ranked ahead of him play on one of the top teams. Only 2 of these higher ranked goalies played more then 46 games as well. Three of the goalies above him also are essentially NHL goalies who should be dominating (they're only down there for playing time). All of this has a huge effect on a goalies stat line as well as wins/losses.

If you're going to rip on someone at least look past the obvious before you do it. Irving also lead the league in shutouts but you fail to mention that (no small feat for an offensively challenged team like the heat).

If you don't qualify being a top ten goalie (on a bad team), leading the league in shutouts and playing 75% of the games as a great season for a very young goalie what do you?

[Beerfest]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Irving did not have a "great" season. Kent explains better then I ever could so I'll crib from him...



He played a lot of games so give him credit for endurance. But that alone doesn't make a great season. I wouldn't close the book on him yet but he needs more dramatic improvement this year to stay in the picture.

lol, how many games id you watch?

[RockOnRoberts]

Here's his take on Granlund. Oh the irony,

69. Markus Granlund, Center, HIFK U20-Finland Jr. A

Markus Granlund, the younger brother of elite Minnesota Wild prospect Mikael Granlund, had a decent season over in Finland and had an admirable performance at the Under-18's. Granlund is an above-average passer who operates very well from the sideboards and runs the power play with notable effectiveness. He has shown the ability to execute crisp mid-distance passes and draw defenders to him and dish it off to the open man. There isn't much in regards to pure stick-handling in his game and his scoring chance creation usually starts from the perimeter. His skating is below-average and while he doesn't look clumsy or anything, I don't see him being able to skate with the average player at the highest level. His physical game is fringe and despite the fact he works along the wall when he does engage, he doesn't go the net frequently enough and lacks the muscle mass to deal with bigger players. His hockey sense is solid which is seen in his vision and decision with the puck, but also his defensive work. Granlund at even-strength does show decent defensive positioning and can kill penalties with effectiveness. I'm not sure if he has enough positives to outweigh his negatives, but there are some things to like with Granlund.

Projected Peak GVT: 6.0

Statistical Comparable: Niklas Hagman

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

You do realize that your comparing Irving to the goalies on the elite teams of the league don't you?

Not me someone else. Regardless, I don't see what difference that makes. Near as I can tell the Heats issue was scoring more then anything else. I'm not "ripping" on Irving at all... I just think it's some sort of forming myth that he had a "great" season. He had a decent season, not great not terrible. Decent.

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

All but one of the 9 goalies ranked ahead of him play on one of the top teams.

Sure 9 ahead of him if you want to base it off of GAA. I don't think that GAA is all that good of a statistic. I think SV% is easily the superior metric for evaluating a goalies performace (Wins & Loses are also poor "goalie" stats IMO). Irving was tied for 15th by that standard according to the AHL stat tracker amoung their minute minimum qualifiers.

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

Only 2 of these higher ranked goalies played more then 46 games as well.

I gave him credit for endurance... I don't know what more you want.

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

If you're going to rip on someone at least look past the obvious before you do it.

I did look past the obvious... did you?

Irving also lead the league in shutouts but you fail to mention that (no small feat for an offensively challenged team like the heat).

It's no small feat that a goalie for an offensively challanged team had shutouts? outside of games going into extra time on a 0-0 score I don't see the correlation. Unless you're assuming that because they were offensively challanged that they were defensively challenged as well. You'd be wrong... Jim Playfair runs a tight ship defensively. Irving faced amoungst the lowest number of average shots against per game in the AHL. trust me I did the basic math the team defense in terms of shot prevention was pretty good.

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

If you don't qualify being a top ten goalie (on a bad team), leading the league in shutouts and playing 75% of the games as a great season for a very young goalie what do you?

He's not top 10 by every stat just GAA, which as I said I consider inferior to SV% as a goalie stat (that's not to saw that SV% is without flaws but it's got less flaws then other metrics in my estimation), nor do I give much extra credit for shutouts. I would consider a great season to be one where he would prove that he can handle a starters workload (he did) and more importantly prove he can stop pucks at an elite level (he didn't).

[Freeway]

The presumption is that an offensively-challenged team plays defense more than offense, so Irving may have seen more rubber (or better quality shots) than his counterparts on other teams.

It's not an air-tight argument, but I still think Leland had a great season.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Freeway

The presumption is that an offensively-challenged team plays defense more than offense, so Irving may have seen more rubber (or better quality shots) than his counterparts on other teams.

Ell he didn't face more rubber on a nightly basis. Out of the top twenty goalies (as rated by AHL.com) he faced (on average) less shots per outing then all but two of them. Shot quality is impossible to measure but if I'm going to guess on one side I'd going to guess to the side that says the team giving up less shots is probably giving up less 5-alarms. Just as a matter of probability.

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Sure 9 ahead of him if you want to base it off of GAA. I don't think that GAA is all that good of a statistic. I think SV% is easily the superior metric for evaluating a goalies performace (Wins & Loses are also poor "goalie" stats IMO). Irving was tied for 15th by that standard according to the AHL stat tracker amoung their minute minimum qualifiers.

He's not top 10 by every stat just GAA, which as I said I consider inferior to SV% as a goalie stat (that's not to saw that SV% is without flaws but it's got less flaws then other metrics in my estimation), nor do I give much extra credit for shutouts. I would consider a great season to be one where he would prove that he can handle a starters workload (he did) and more importantly prove he can stop pucks at an elite level (he didn't).

You were ripping on irving for being a middle ranked goalie as far as stats go and for only having won half the games he started. Funny that you're not willing to give credit for him leading the league in shutouts, likely because it works against your argument.

The way it pans out is that his numbers are among the best in the ahl for players that actually started a good portion of the season (minus a handful of goalies on top teams, two-three of which are legitimate NHLers). If you don't buy that argument then why is it you rarely see a top team with goalie outside of the top ten statistically? You're not going to lead the league very often as a goalie in any category unless you play on a great team...the heat were nowhere near that.

Just because playfair ran "a tight ship" defensively doesn't mean anything - see kipprusoff last year for us. We were by no means a top team but were a pretty decent defensive team. Kipper didn't exactly come close to the top statistically in any category.

I'm not saying he's the best player in the league here. I'm saying he took a huge step forward and with all things considered had a great season. There's no reason to believe he can't improve on last years numbers with a better team in front of him.

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by Weiser Wonder

Maybe it's Playfair's coaching style that keeps Irving's save percentage low? Irving's .913 is the best save percentage out of any goalie Playfair has coached beyond Kiprusoff's .917. I'm not saying he had a great year, but one statistic isn't enough to write it off as mediocre.

Added to that, he just turned 23 in April. He's still got some development time left, so I don't think NHL starter is anywhere near out of the question.

All you can do is look for improvement year by year with a young goalie. You have to consider how awful our ahl teams have been the last few years when you start looking at our goaltenders numbers. We're talking about bare bones rosters full of plugs and grinders here. This season will for sure feature the best roster they've had since they were sharing a team with carolina. I would bet irving has an even better year because of it.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

You were ripping on irving for being a middle ranked goalie as far as stats go and for only having won half the games he started.

???

No I didn't, hell I flat out said that wins and loses are poor stats upon which to evaluate a goalie. As far as "ripping" goes... if you consider saying that someone was middling to be "ripping" then I think you need to re-evaluate what you consider "ripping". As far as I'm concerned saying that a player was anything short of fantabulas isn't inheriently "ripping" them.

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

Funny that you're not willing to give credit for him leading the league in shutouts, likely because it works against your argument.

Don't be so presumptious. I don't give much credit for him leading the league in shutouts because...

A: A shutout just means that he stopped 100% of shots on net on a particular night meaning those performances are captured in his SV%, and

B: Raw playing time (which I already gave him credit for) increases the probability of him getting them.

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

The way it pans out is that his numbers are among the best in the ahl for players that actually started a good portion of the season (minus a handful of goalies on top teams, two-three of which are legitimate NHLers).

Well... his minutes played were the best, his SV% like I said is fairly meh. Not great, not terrible.

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

I'm saying he took a huge step forward and with all things considered had a great season.

Maybe by your definition of a great season. He didn't meet my definition... your welcome to your opinion, I just disagree with it is all.

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

There's no reason to believe he can't improve on last years numbers with a better team in front of him.

Well that's true. I don't dislike Irving at all and he could still become a NHL quality starter and in fact hope that he does... I just don't think he's warrented "great season" praise... decent season overall? sure, better season then last?, absolutely. YMMV.

[Beerfest]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Ell he didn't face more rubber on a nightly basis. Out of the top twenty goalies (as rated by AHL.com) he faced (on average) less shots per outing then all but two of them. Shot quality is impossible to measure but if I'm going to guess on one side I'd going to guess to the side that says the team giving up less shots is probably giving up less 5-alarms. Just as a matter of probability.

Seeing as you ignored my question, im going to say 0.

[Robbob]

I also think that winning 30 games with the amount of goals scored for was a feat in itself.