[PGT] Sharks defeat Flames 6-3, Dec 16th

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

And I've read that McKenna has been a disinterested floater/cherry picker in college and that his exceptional skills haven't even translated at an NCAA level, let alone an NHL level. I wonder if he will still be a consensus 1OA by the end of the season.

He has dropped to 2 or 3 in some rankings. But it is still early, I want to see how he does for Team Canada and going forward. Could be a bit of a reset on the year for him.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

I believe there is a clear top 3 this year and then a significant fall off at 4? I would definitely keep any top 3 pick in that case.

Of course things could change and this is all just scouting and speculation. But I have seen a few times scouts saying the top 3 all have really high potential. And then the next few are good as well but there is a gap.

I think it's a top 4. McKenna, Verhoeff, Stenberg, Lawrence.
Not in that order necessarily. Lawrence wasn't part of that grouping earlier for some, but now that he's playing and playing well, and is far and away the top center - I think he's in that group.

I would be over the moon for any of the 4.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

And I've read that McKenna has been a disinterested floater/cherry picker in college and that his exceptional skills haven't even translated at an NCAA level, let alone an NHL level. I wonder if he will still be a consensus 1OA by the end of the season.

And the issue is those concerns are not new. Those were the concerns people had about him heading into this year. This was the chance to erase those concerns and instead he's amplified them.

What is perhaps more surprising is that his elite puck skills hasn't resulted in production. So the question is, is he even the player driver people thought he was? Or is he a Phil Kessel type of elite offensive weapon, who is really flawed.

This year's WJCs is probably the most fascinating in a very long time. Whoever has the best tourney from the top 4 will likely emerge as the #1 ranked prospect for the draft. Until it changes again!

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Igottago

So if you were the Flames GM and had a top 3 pick, would you trade down?
If not, why?

WTF does that have to do with not panicking about finishing last?

And who am I trading and to what draft position, and who is available at that position? Is it 2017 and I can trade my 2OA for the 4OA plus a good player because I know that the team who wants 2nd will take Nolan Patrick and that the next team is taking Heiskenan? And I end up with Makar plus?

Essentially that's what happened to Colorado except they didn't get the compensation - just the downgrade of their pick.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

If the delta was an extra 3rd, Andersson would be long gone.

How do you know ?

Don’t state your opinions as fact . You have zero idea what has or hasn’t been offered nor what the Flames are looking for.

They have repeatedly said they set their price and will wait for it . And yet you think if the set price was higher then the offers - missing a 3rd - they would still do it despite their price not being met .

Due please tell me how much a team can miss the price by that the Flames will do the deal since you seem to know ! Is it a 2nd ? 3rd and 5th ? c level prospect ?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

And the issue is those concerns are not new. Those were the concerns people had about him heading into this year. This was the chance to erase those concerns and instead he's amplified them.

What is perhaps more surprising is that his elite puck skills hasn't resulted in production. So the question is, is he even the player driver people thought he was? Or is he a Phil Kessel type of elite offensive weapon, who is really flawed.

This year's WJCs is probably the most fascinating in a very long time. Whoever has the best tourney from the top 4 will likely emerge as the #1 ranked prospect for the draft. Until it changes again!

He may have chosen the wrong program to highlight his skills. I've read the team he is on is a low offence style.

But in the grander scheme to him it probably doesn't even matter aside from the prestige of being picked 1OA. All 4 top picks will get a max ELC I expect.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

If we look by month at this point:

October: 2-8-2, 0.250 point percentage, 32nd
November: 7-6-2, 0.533 point percentage, 20th
December: 4-3-0, 0.571 point percentage, 16th

So really I think they have normalized to where people more expected them to be. Which is around .550 and maybe a 90 point pace but the terrible start is keeping them bottom 5 at this point.

Well they have played at a .545 pace over those two months of time so they would have to improve if they were to reach .550. If they kept that pace up they would reach 82 points, which would place them 7th last (assuming everyone else kept up their current winning percentage).

If they lose their next game that pace drops to .521 for November and December and then they would be on pace for 79 points which would drop them down to 5th worst in the league based on the other teams projections.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

WTF does that have to do with not panicking about finishing last?

And who am I trading and to what draft position, and who is available at that position? Is it 2017 and I can trade my 2OA for the 4OA plus a good player because I know that the team who wants 2nd will take Nolan Patrick and that the next team is taking Heiskenan? And I end up with Makar plus?

Why do you care so much if someone - in your view - panics ? It’s like your mission to tell people 50 times a day not to panic

It’s a message board. People only can really react to 2 things right now. Outcomes of game and media reports - until a trade is done or the deadline passes

I personally don’t equate typing on a message board to panicking . Do you think they people are running around their house screaming and by posting different versions of “don’t panic” every day you are saving them ?

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think it's a top 4. McKenna, Verhoeff, Stenberg, Lawrence.
Not in that order necessarily. Lawrence wasn't part of that grouping earlier for some, but now that he's playing and playing well, and is far and away the top center - I think he's in that group.

I would be over the moon for any of the 4.

Oh wow, I didn't know Lawrence has risen so high lately. Last time I was really checking he was around 5 to 7 and I see he is even at number 1 now for one ranking.

If he keeps this up, that would be a tough decision to make for someone between drafting him or McKenna. Center is the more valuable position, but just a few months ago lots were saying McKenna was generational.

[Jay Random]

If the top 4 are a tier, great. The team that finishes 31st is guaranteed to pick in the top 4, no matter how the lottery goes. With the schedule getting harder and Andersson almost certainly getting traded, finishing 31st or 32nd is a very strong possibility. I’d be quite satisfied with that from a rebiggling perspective. Drafting #1OA is obviously best, but I wouldn’t lose any sleep over picking fourth.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

Oh wow, I didn't know Lawrence has risen so high lately. Last time I was really checking he was around 5 to 7 and I see he is even at number 1 now for one ranking.

If he keeps this up, that would be a tough decision to make for someone between drafting him or McKenna. Center is the more valuable position, but just a few months ago lots were saying McKenna was generational.

McKenna has come back to the pack for sure. Though I always felt McKenna and Stenberg were kinda close. And what Stenberg is doing in a very good league is impressive.

Lawrence is intriguing because he's just a really strong all around two-way player. No real holes. He won't lead the league in scoring, but he'll be a valauble center on a contending team.

And I find something really intriguing about a future that has Lawrence-Reschney up the middle.

Lawrence is also the guy I'm predicting the Flames end up with. One way or another.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well they have played at a .545 pace over those two months of time so they would have to improve if they were to reach .550. If they kept that pace up they would reach 82 points, which would place them 7th last (assuming everyone else kept up their current winning percentage).

If they lose their next game that pace drops to .521 for November and December and then they would be on pace for 79 points which would drop them down to 5th worst in the league based on the other teams projections.

Nashville has a better record than the Flames over the last 10. So does St. Louis (barely). And they are already ahead of the Flames in the standings.

The Kraken have sucked over the last 10, but they've also had to play Detroit, Colorado, Minnie and Dallas in that stretch. Plus the Oilers twice who, despite being no good, can exploit a team like Seattle which is both offesnively challenged and has suspect goaltending. I expect Seattle will even out to their usual sub mediocre finish.

if there was a balanced schedule Calgary would be dead last.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

McKenna has come back to the pack for sure. Though I always felt McKenna and Stenberg were kinda close. And what Stenberg is doing in a very good league is impressive.

Lawrence is intriguing because he's just a really strong all around two-way player. No real holes. He won't lead the league in scoring, but he'll be a valauble center on a contending team.

And I find something really intriguing about a future that has Lawrence-Reschney up the middle.

Lawrence is also the guy I'm predicting the Flames end up with. One way or another.

I still think it's for now and people are overreacting to a below expectation 15 game average where he's still above a p/gp in the NCAA as a draft eligible player.

If he has a dominant WJC I think that all changes.

I still think the guy is being punished for going the NCAA route, and people are too quickly forgetting that his 2.30 P/GP season is the best WHL Draft-1 season in the past 25 years, and the best 17 year old season behind just Bedard in his draft year.

And his 38 points in the playoffs and 2.38 P/GP are similarly the best ever for a 17 year old / player before they were drafted.

Way too much being made of a 15 game stretch.

[D as in David]

The WJC is still made up of U-20s; mind you, the best U-20s in the world. He needs to show during the rest of the NCAA season that he can excel against older players. Not doing so would put some doubt in his ability to deliver at higher levels, IMO.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I still think it's for now and people are overreacting to a below expectation 15 game average where he's still above a p/gp in the NCAA as a draft eligible player.

If he has a dominant WJC I think that all changes.

I still think the guy is being punished for going the NCAA route, and people are too quickly forgetting that his 2.30 P/GP season is the best WHL Draft-1 season in the past 25 years, and the best 17 year old season behind just Bedard in his draft year.

And his 38 points in the playoffs and 2.38 P/GP are similarly the best ever for a 17 year old / player before they were drafted.

Way too much being made of a 15 game stretch.

Again though, it isn't a 15 game stretch.
These concerns existed before this season. Just not at this level.

[Enoch Root]

I am not overly concerned if he is under-motivated with his NCAA team. I want to see how he plays at the WJCs, and I fully expect him to dominate. If he does, that speaks to his upside, which is more important to me than how he faired in his first 15 NCAA games.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Again though, it isn't a 15 game stretch.
These concerns existed before this season. Just not at this level.

And again though, I don't really care. Lots of guys were like that before they became pros. I care about the upside.

[Jay Random]

If McKenna is having trouble translating his game to the NCAA, that’s a yellow flag for me. The NHL is a much bigger jump.

I think he needs to do better in the second half of the season to stay at #1.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

How do you know ?

Don’t state your opinions as fact . You have zero idea what has or hasn’t been offered nor what the Flames are looking for.

They have repeatedly said they set their price and will wait for it . And yet you think if the set price was higher then the offers - missing a 3rd - they would still do it despite their price not being met .

Due please tell me how much a team can miss the price by that the Flames will do the deal since you seem to know ! Is it a 2nd ? 3rd and 5th ? c level prospect ?

Because GMs don't hold up a major transaction for months for something that's just slightly more than a throw-in. They hold it up because the primary returns do not match their expectations for value or their organizational needs.

I admit this is supposition, although not as much as the suggestion that waiting for an extra 3rd round pick is what is holding up a deal.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

If McKenna is having trouble translating his game to the NCAA, that’s a yellow flag for me. The NHL is a much bigger jump.

I think he needs to do better in the second half of the season to stay at #1.

Celebrini dominated NCAA as a 17 year old. He was younger than McKenna is now and was the same height while being slightly heavier.

Celebrini played 38 games and had 64 points. For McKenna to put up the same PPG assuming he also plays 38 games he would have to get 38 points in his last 22 games (1.72 PPG). Will be interesting to see how the second half goes.