Flames record down the stretch

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I'm sure the draft has talent, but lets face it, historically the difference between a top 3 and a top 5 pick has been pretty significant, let alone top 5 to top 8. There are years where it doesn't make too much of a difference, but from what I've been able to gather, you really want to be top 3 in this draft.

From everything I've read this draft has some comparisons to 2013 at the top end. So you had the "big 4" of MacKinnon, Barkov, Jones and Drouin and then a slight drop off to guys like Monahan, Lindholm, Ristolainen, Nurse, Nichushkin, Horvat, Domi, etc.

I think that year is very comparable to this year. This year you've got the "big 3" of Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi and then a slight drop off to the next tier with Tkachuk, Dubois, Chychrun, Nylander, McLeod, Sergachev, Juolevi.

So yes top 3 would be great this year especially since it contains a couple big right shot wingers which are a need for the Flames. But this is actually a year where it doesn't drop off right away so not winning the lottery isn't going to be setback. That's the impression I get from everything I've read and seen so far.

[Poe969]

for the past few years or so, I wouldn't say the top 3 are that elite, just 2 of the 3 are because one of them automatically goes to the oilers.

It would be ideal for the Flames to get one of the other 2 but the next 6-7 of them are all pretty good and we'd be lucky to have any of them.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

From everything I've read this draft has some comparisons to 2013 at the top end. So you had the "big 4" of MacKinnon, Barkov, Jones and Drouin and then a slight drop off to guys like Monahan, Lindholm, Ristolainen, Nurse, Nichushkin, Horvat, Domi, etc.

I think that year is very comparable to this year. This year you've got the "big 3" of Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi and then a slight drop off to the next tier with Tkachuk, Dubois, Chychrun, Nylander, McLeod, Sergachev, Juolevi.

So yes top 3 would be great this year especially since it contains a couple big right shot wingers which are a need for the Flames. But this is actually a year where it doesn't drop off right away so not winning the lottery isn't going to be setback. That's the impression I get from everything I've read and seen so far.

I agree, although I would suggest that there are in fact three tiers in the top 10. Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi and then a slight drop off to the next tier with Tkachuk, Dubois, Chychrun, Nylander followed by another slight drop off to McLeod, Sergachev, Juolevi.

If we are drafting after the lottery anywhere in the top 7, I will be very happy with whomever we get.

[Sylvanfan]

Ultimately what you want is Edmonton in a position where they have to make a judgement call on who to draft. Which by all accounts could be the case for them this year.

They've proven that if you force them to have to make a decision at the top end of the draft they are highly likely to select the wrong player. With McDavid...no decision. Even with Nurse at that point it was a bit of a no brainer and they may one day like that pick a lot less. Draisatl could still work out I suppose, but theres a lot of challengers to him already.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

They've proven that if you force them to have to make a decision at the top end of the draft they are highly likely to select the wrong player. With McDavid...no decision. Even with Nurse at that point it was a bit of a no brainer and they may one day like that pick a lot less. Draisatl could still work out I suppose, but theres a lot of challengers to him already.

I dunno if Nurse was a no brainer, MacT had to overrule his scouting staff who wanted Nichushkin. They overruled their scouts in two straight drafts!

Sign of great management. Hire a whack of scouts and then just ignore everything they say. What a bunch of idiots.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I dunno if Nurse was a no brainer, MacT had to overrule his scouting staff who wanted Nichushkin. They overruled their scouts in two straight drafts!

Sign of great management. Hire a whack of scouts and then just ignore everything they say. What a bunch of idiots.

Judging who their scouts have drafted with every other pick - I might over-rule them too.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Ultimately what you want is Edmonton in a position where they have to make a judgement call on who to draft. Which by all accounts could be the case for them this year.

They've proven that if you force them to have to make a decision at the top end of the draft they are highly likely to select the wrong player. With McDavid...no decision. Even with Nurse at that point it was a bit of a no brainer and they may one day like that pick a lot less. Draisatl could still work out I suppose, but theres a lot of challengers to him already.

Draisatl's having a good season and would be along with McDavid and Nurse one of the three that I wouldn't trade.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Flames chance of finishing:

6th last: 35.3%
5th last: 29.8%
4th last: 21.9%
3rd last: 13%

Crazy we can still finish anywhere from 3rd last to 6th last with only 2 games left. Things should narrow down after tonight's game.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by FBI

So the worst we can possibly pick now is 9th with 3 drop downs from the lottery?

I wouldn't even care tbh. We would still get a fantastic prospect and the Canucks, Leafs and Oilers would all be pushed out of the top 3.

[Roof-Daddy]

Flames will win both remaining games IMO.

Unless Backstrom really craps the bed in Minny, but I bet he bounces back with less nerves, and the Wild will also probably rest a guy or two.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Thank the Gods the Jets won, gives us a decent chance of finishing 5th now.

Flames chance of finishing:
6th last: 25.2%
5th last: 67%
4th last: 7.7%

Basically if we win, we'd need the Jets to beat LA on Saturday
If we lose in OT I think we're good due to tiebreakers (not sure sportsclubstats is taking this into account properly so the odds may be slightly off). They think there's a 12% chance of finishing 6th if we lose in OT but WPG would have to lose by more than 5 goals more than we lose by if I'm correct.
If we lose in regulation we'd be guaranteed to finish bottom 5 with a 16% chance of finishing 4th.

[Corral]

I feel this season was a lost opportunity to sneak into the Dance on the cheap - a measly 85 points makes it in the West.

The Flames record down the stretch is one thing - but that October win loss column was something else . Pretty disappointing all in all.

[Trailer Fire]

I firmly believe that the Flames will play well in their last game. Maybe even win. I also firmly believe that the Gods of Hockey, Old and New, will reward the Flames for not rolling over and embracing the tank. Even if they don't win any firm of the lotto, I can hold my head high.

[dying4acup]

This all said, the playoff miss lies at Trelivings feet, not Hartley's.

A clearer vision of the goaltending situation in October, allows Hartley to manage goalies properly, and the goalies to succeed, instead of compete against each other pre-season style.

Goalies have some blame to heed as well.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

This all said, the playoff miss lies at Trelivings feet, not Hartley's.

A clearer vision of the goaltending situation in October, allows Hartley to manage goalies properly, and the goalies to succeed, instead of compete against each other pre-season style.

Goalies have some blame to heed as well.

I agree that the three-headed monster is on Treliving.

However, I also think Hartley handled it poorly, so he has to get a bit of the blame.

Then there is the specialty teams and the passive defense. Those are on Hartley and his assistants.

[Toonage]

Defense issues would have been less noticeable had Brodie not been injured. That was just rotten luck, no one's fault. But goaltending issues kept rearing their ugly head all season. That and special teams need to be fixed. I look forward to seeing how the team handles both issues.

[Roof-Daddy]

Off topic, but..

Blaming the goaltending on anybody but the goaltenders is absolutely asinine IMO. The two vets played well enough to help the Flames to almost 100 points last season, and the young guy was an AHL all star and looked decent to great in his limited call ups.

Treliving had no reason to believe all three would be simultaneously horrible to start the year, and if they were horrible because there were three of them on the roster then that's on them too. Talk about weak mental fortitude. Not Hartley's fault, not the teams fault, and certainly not Treliving's fault.

[Poe969]

If we're blaming the coach and GM for goaltending, why can't we blame them for why Raymond has played like crap...I mean he's probably great, there are just too many wingers on the roster right?

This next game in Minny is crucial. It's going to be fun to watch Johnny get a few A's to reach 08 points

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Thank the Gods the Jets won, gives us a decent chance of finishing 5th now.

Flames chance of finishing:
6th last: 25.2%
5th last: 67%
4th last: 7.7%

Basically if we win, we'd need the Jets to beat LA on Saturday
If we lose in OT I think we're good due to tiebreakers (not sure sportsclubstats is taking this into account properly so the odds may be slightly off). They think there's a 12% chance of finishing 6th if we lose in OT but WPG would have to lose by more than 5 goals more than we lose by if I'm correct.
If we lose in regulation we'd be guaranteed to finish bottom 5 with a 16% chance of finishing 4th.

Yeah, we're basically tied with the Jets in our home and away series in points so it goes to

The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season.

and the Jets lead by -25 to -30.

[kn]

If anyone cares, here are the final records down the stretch (since March 8th).

             
                 GP  W  L  OTL  PTS
(25) Winnipeg    17  8  6   3    19
(23) Buffalo     15  8  5   2    18
(26) Calgary     16  8  6   2    18
(30) Toronto     16  8  8   0    16
(24) Arizona     17  7  8   2    16
(22) Montreal    15  7  8   0    14
(27) Columbus    15  7  8   0    14
(28) Vancouver   17  6 10   1    13
(29) Edmonton    14  5  8   1    11