Burke Philosophy VS Feaster Philosophy

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by FAN

Burke lucked out with the development of Getzlaf and Perry. He traded Shane O'Brien for a first round an attempt to acquire help at the deadline and failed to do so.

Getzlaf was no fluke.

Where Burke lucked out was in having a HHOF defenceman turn down more money in Jersey to go play with his brother, in having an HHOF scoring forward realize that the grass isn't always greener and return, and in having a HHOF-calibre defenceman so desperate to get out of Edmonton he'd go anywhere else. It was a perfect storm of opportunity, and while Burke certainly took advantage of it - in the Pronger case especially - it was also a non-repeatable event. Burke had it very easy in Anaheim, especially given the base his predecessor built. He doesn't have anything close to that here in Calgary.

The simple truth is, the Anaheim scenario is not going to happen here. My fear is the Toronto scenario will - one where Burke threw away two high draft picks on a guy in a bid to shortcut the rebuild. While Kessel is no slouch, and even accounting for his great move to get Lupul and Gardiner, Burke's Maple Leafs have been terrible all along. Even this year, the Leafs are only barely holding onto a playoff spot because the East is absolutely terrible. Put the Flames in the Eastern Conference and we're quite likely ahead of them.

Burke's Leafs are a team that is not showing any sign of aspiring to anything above mediocrity. The very same mediocrity so many pro-Burke people here have railed against.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Big physical teams isn't a trend. It's what Darryl Sutter tried to build, it's what the Kings, Ducks, Bruins, etc built. There was a stretch after the 2004 rule changes where small and skilled was a trend but it's petered out and we are back again to big, physical teams. Players are getting bigger and stronger and that's not a trend, it's a fact.

The big difference between now and pre-2004 era is that small players were, with few obvious exceptions, completely obsolete with all the clutching/grabbing etc. In the current game small players can be very effective, but they still need a complimenting physical force to make space for them to operate.

I'm glad Burke has come out and said he wants big players to compliment the smaller guys; not that he wants to overhaul the roster and ditch the diminutives.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

The big difference between now and pre-2004 era is that small players were, with few obvious exceptions, completely obsolete with all the clutching/grabbing etc. In the current game small players can be very effective, but they still need a complimenting physical force to make space for them to operate.

I'm glad Burke has come out and said he wants big players to compliment the smaller guys; not that he wants to overhaul the roster and ditch the diminutives.

People make it sound like Burke hates any players under 6 feet tall but lets not forget he tried to sign Cammalleri when he became a UFA. He doesn't have any issues with smaller guys but he doesn't want a small, soft team like last year's team which was as soft a team as you will see.

Burke has made mistakes over his career but what GM hasn't? Anyone calling Ken Holland a genius for signing Weiss to that horrible contract? At least Burke has a track record and after seeing unproven GM's like Button, Sutter, and Feaster (yeah he won a cup by mostly inheriting a good team but all his work after was abysmal as it gets) I'm happy to see a guy running the team that has had good success (I admit a bit of a stretch calling the Leafs a success but they were heading in the right direction making the playoffs again after taking over from the disastrous mess Ferguson left) in three different teams.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Think that all you like but it isn't true. Shot quality evens out over the sample. Shot based stats tell us way more than whatever else we have.

That's not entirely true.

Shot quality, in the aggregate, should even out.

But to assume it will even out for each player assumes that each player's shots are about the same, in the aggregate. The fact is that some players have lousy shots.

I always felt that Backlund was an example of what I am trying to illustrate. He has always gotten and generated a decent number of shots, but the shot quality was always poor. As a result, his stats looked better than his play.

Conversely, guys who put the puck in the net sometimes look better than their stats suggest.

For most players, it should wash out for the most part. But it isn't always going to. (that doesn't mean the stats aren't useful because they are - you just need to be aware)

Note: I am not bashing Backlund, he is a good player. But I think it is fair to say that sometimes the advanced stats paint a picture that is rosier than the truth with respect to his play.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Friedman was mentioning that Burke looks at overvaluing advanced stats with derision. Feaster mentioned increased use of these and the Pucks system. I suspect this is part of the philosophical disconnect. Friedman even pretty much said that Burke goes to meetings of guys discussing advanced stats to pretty much be, how shall we say, a very strong devils advocate.

I think Feaster actually got a lot of decent pieces that have value, and perhaps needed to distance himself from them emotionally to parlay some of them into useful pieces that fit the blueprint with which Burke is on board.

I think Brian Burke is a very interesting case when it comes to advanced stats. He is widely quoted for how much disdain he has for them, but yet manages to attend essentially every major sports analytics conference and is often a speaker at them. I understand him wanting to be a devil's advocate, but I highly doubt Burke is wasting his valuable time to attend these events just to prove a point. What does he gain by doing this?

In my opinion, either he really hates advanced stats, but is smart enough to still keep up to date with them in case there is progression that he feels is relevant (which is actually a very good thing for a old school guy) or he's playing his cards close to his vest and actually values advanced stats to some degree (which lots of people in the analytics community actually believe is true).

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think that advanced stats are extremely valuable because they help to remove bias. They are not a replacement for watching and scouting a player with your own eyes, but it does help to remove bias - both good and bad.

The more you can analyze a player, the better things are I would assume for scouting purposes. I just think it is a tool that is starting to be widely used, and you have to assume since it is being widely used, there has to be a ROI on it for every organization.

People who rely on it rather than using their own eyes can easily become fooled though, just as you can fool yourself by having bias (pro and negative bias) for particular players when watching. It is a way to verify what you are seeing out there, and if they don't match up, then perhaps you need to view the player a bit better and get the whole book on him.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Burke's Leafs are a team that is not showing any sign of aspiring to anything above mediocrity. The very same mediocrity so many pro-Burke people here have railed against.

That's my fear. Burke (and Flames ownership) doesn't really have the patience for a foundational rebuild through the draft. I have no doubt he'll make the team better in the next 2-4 seasons. But I fear the Flames will top out, once again, as a mediocre team.

But my dread all along has not been the Flames turning into the Oilers; it's the Flames turning into the Leafs. Unsurprisingly, a lot of Burke's fans here are closet Leafs fans. And the key trait of Leafs fans is mistaking a mediocre team for one that can challenge for the Cup.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

That's my fear. Burke (and Flames ownership) doesn't really have the patience for a foundational rebuild through the draft. I have no doubt he'll make the team better in the next 2-4 seasons. But I fear the Flames will top out, once again, as a mediocre team.

But my dread all along has not been the Flames turning into the Oilers; it's the Flames turning into the Leafs. Unsurprisingly, a lot of Burke's fans here are closet Leafs fans. And the key trait of Leafs fans is mistaking a mediocre team for one that can challenge for the Cup.

Thanks. I've been having a hard time organizing my thoughts on these recent events and putting them into words......but I find the recent changes unsettling, and you just nailed it with this post.

....and the topper will be Burke hiring another recent TO architect to be the GM.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Getzlaf was no fluke.

Where Burke lucked out was in having a HHOF defenceman turn down more money in Jersey to go play with his brother, in having an HHOF scoring forward realize that the grass isn't always greener and return, and in having a HHOF-calibre defenceman so desperate to get out of Edmonton he'd go anywhere else. It was a perfect storm of opportunity, and while Burke certainly took advantage of it - in the Pronger case especially - it was also a non-repeatable event. Burke had it very easy in Anaheim, especially given the base his predecessor built. He doesn't have anything close to that here in Calgary.

The simple truth is, the Anaheim scenario is not going to happen here. My fear is the Toronto scenario will - one where Burke threw away two high draft picks on a guy in a bid to shortcut the rebuild. While Kessel is no slouch, and even accounting for his great move to get Lupul and Gardiner, Burke's Maple Leafs have been terrible all along. Even this year, the Leafs are only barely holding onto a playoff spot because the East is absolutely terrible. Put the Flames in the Eastern Conference and we're quite likely ahead of them.

Burke's Leafs are a team that is not showing any sign of aspiring to anything above mediocrity. The very same mediocrity so many pro-Burke people here have railed against.

You mean something like the ROR offer sheet, or sacrificing a 2nd round pick to dump salary (Kotalik) so to make a "win now" move with Brad Richards?

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by mikeecho

The biggest concern I have with the Burke strategy is that he's chasing a trend. When you do that, you risk continual mediocrity. You need to set the trends to have any advantage.

By the time he builds a big, tough team 2-3 years down the road, the progressive GMs in the league are already building teams to be better than the big tough teams.

The game is continually evolving and Burke needs to think where the game is going and build a team in that mould as opposed to where the game is today.

I think Feaster was trying to do that, to some extent with this re-build.

The way I see it, Birke just placed an order for a bunch of iPhone 5s to be delivered in 2-3 years. By the time he gets them, people will think they're brick phones.

All the trends and speculation aside.... Feaster isn't Apple, he's probably closer to Blackberry. Its great that you try to outsmart everyone, but if you're going to do that..... you have to be one of the best in the world to do it. Is Jay Feaster (one of) the best GM in the NHL?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

You mean something like the ROR offer sheet, or sacrificing a 2nd round pick to dump salary (Kotalik) so to make a "win now" move with Brad Richards?

Ahh yes, the old "I can't refute the argument so I am going to try misdirection" trick. But thanks for making my point for me. Everyone cries and moans about what Feaster did - and not without reason - then turns a blind eye to the fact that Burke did pretty much the same thing.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

You mean something like the ROR offer sheet, or sacrificing a 2nd round pick to dump salary (Kotalik) so to make a "win now" move with Brad Richards?

People can have valid concerns about Burke's direction without liking or defending Feaster

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Ahh yes, the old "I can't refute the argument so I am going to try misdirection" trick. But thanks for making my point for me. Everyone cries and moans about what Feaster did - and not without reason - then turns a blind eye to the fact that Burke did pretty much the same thing.

So you are doing the same too, then?

Also, what do I have to refute? Burke isn't going to be the GM.

[Hanna Sniper]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

That's my fear. Burke (and Flames ownership) doesn't really have the patience for a foundational rebuild through the draft. I have no doubt he'll make the team better in the next 2-4 seasons. But I fear the Flames will top out, once again, as a mediocre team.

But my dread all along has not been the Flames turning into the Oilers; it's the Flames turning into the Leafs. Unsurprisingly, a lot of Burke's fans here are closet Leafs fans. And the key trait of Leafs fans is mistaking a mediocre team for one that can challenge for the Cup.

I would say the Oilers have had that patience rebuild you are asking for. Hows that working out for them.

Maybe if we make the same assumptions you make about Burke fans being closet leaf fans then maybe it'll equally fair to say Burke haters are closet Oiler fans

There is no time frame that says what the perfect amount of patience is. For myself you need to make the right deal at the right time to better your hockey club, only reflection and history will show if you executed those moves correctly but the last thing I would hope for is a GM that is scared to better his hockey club because they view the easier route sucking (loosing) is how you get better

If you are too patient you can just as easily miss your opportunity and find yourself a mediocre team at best

Successful team don't become that by sitting on the sidelines

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Hanna Sniper

I would say the Oilers have had that patience rebuild you are asking for. Hows that working out for them.

Maybe if we make the same assumptions you make about Burke fans being closet leaf fans then maybe it'll equally fair to say Burke haters are closet Oiler fans

There is no time frame that says what the perfect amount of patience is. For myself you need to make the right deal at the right time to better your hockey club, only reflection and history will show if you executed those moves correctly but the last thing I would hope for is a GM that is scared to better his hockey club because they view the easier route sucking (loosing) is how you get better

If you are too patient you can just as easily miss your opportunity and find yourself a mediocre team at best

Successful team don't become that by sitting on the sidelines

Well said HS. Flat out, there is no recipe for success in the NHL. There is no timeline, no formula, no philosophy for success.

At this stage, the guy choosing the timeline and the one making decisions just has to be one of the best in the NHL for this team to have success. And at the moment thats all there is to it.

[Ark2]

Feaster had no philosophy. He just had platitudes.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by JayP

I think Brian Burke is a very interesting case when it comes to advanced stats. He is widely quoted for how much disdain he has for them, but yet manages to attend essentially every major sports analytics conference and is often a speaker at them. I understand him wanting to be a devil's advocate, but I highly doubt Burke is wasting his valuable time to attend these events just to prove a point. What does he gain by doing this?

In my opinion, either he really hates advanced stats, but is smart enough to still keep up to date with them in case there is progression that he feels is relevant (which is actually a very good thing for a old school guy) or he's playing his cards close to his vest and actually values advanced stats to some degree (which lots of people in the analytics community actually believe is true).

Well just because you don't believe in it, doesn't mean you completely ignore it. You'd be stupid to compeltely ignore something that many in your field believe in..... even if you don't.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Hanna Sniper

For myself you need to make the right deal at the right time to better your hockey club, only reflection and history will show if you executed those moves correctly but the last thing I would hope for is a GM that is scared to better his hockey club because they view the easier route sucking (loosing) is how you get better

The easiest route to getting better is trading away picks and prospects, and overpaying UFAs. I don't know if that's the approach Burke will take. But he does have a track record of those kinds of moves. As others have mentioned, there's no Pronger wanting out of Edmonton, or Niedermeyer who wants to play with his brother. If Burke wants a stud d-man, he'll probably have to draft him and wait 4-6 seasons for him to develop.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Well just because you don't believe in it, doesn't mean you completely ignore it. You'd be stupid to compeltely ignore something that many in your field believe in..... even if you don't.

I would say that a good portion of the NHL front office staff is completely stupid by that definition then. It's a pretty rare person who's able to dismiss something in favor of traditional methods, but be willing to stay at the forefront of new developments.

The problem is you use the term "in your field". Now that is completely true in reality, but the NHL is in large part an old boys club who likely wouldn't count the bloggers, etc. involved in analytics to even be considered in their field. Just look at Feaster and his ridiculous "blogger in his basement in underwear" comments. And there's a lot more old school guys out there in the NHL than Jay.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

Also, what do I have to refute? Burke isn't going to be the GM.

Sure, just like how Kevin Lowe wasn't pulling the strings on Tambellini. Burke may not have the title on his door (aside from now as interim), but he's been the GM from the day he was hired. The reaction of many fans here is implied acceptance of this fact - they are excited about having Burke run the show, not about some nebulous future GM running the show.