I'm thinking because if he blows up the WHL it would have more of an impact than him blowing up the USHL.
It's doubtful he blows up the WHL like he did the USHL. He took a step down to play in the USHL so the production wasn't surprising IMO. His tantalizing production should be tempered. This is like a good junior A player going back and playing tier 2 junior. I would look more the makeup of his skills and warts than get lost in his production.
It's doubtful he blows up the WHL like he did the USHL. He took a step down to play in the USHL so the production wasn't surprising IMO. His tantalizing production should be tempered. This is like a good junior A player going back and playing tier 2 junior. I would look more the makeup of his skills and warts than get lost in his production.
I'm just saying that's probably why Monohammer thinks he'd be a top 5 pick without COVID. He obviously thinks Sillinger would have tore up the WHL, which is a completely reasonable assumption. Not a lot of 16 year olds put up point per game numbers in the WHL, and when they do they usually explode as 17 year olds leading to being a potentially high draft pick.
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The USHL has become a very respectable level of junior hockey, and is considered a hard league to score in- that’s why we’re seeing more and more players coming out of there. If a player puts up big numbers in that league, they could put up big numbers in the WHL.
Last edited by Sandman; 06-17-2021 at 05:50 PM.
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I'm just saying that's probably why Monohammer thinks he'd be a top 5 pick without COVID. He obviously thinks Sillinger would have tore up the WHL, which is a completely reasonable assumption. Not a lot of 16 year olds put up point per game numbers in the WHL, and when they do they usually explode as 17 year olds leading to being a potentially high draft pick.
Dylan Guenther and Ryder Korczak did it. Jack Finley was close. Closer to home, Connor Zary did it. 67 points in 63 games as a 16 year old versus 53 in 48. Zary didn't go top five. The assumption is weak IMO.
Excuse the lazy image editing as this is from my phone.
I'm actually basing it on a comparison to guenther mostly. Up until this year they were seen as neck and neck prospects. Sillinger also has nhl bloodlines and imo a more interesting playbook than guenther but I love both.
Statistically, imo Sillinger has always been a step ahead of guenther.
Spoiler!
Sillinger:
Guenther:
As we can see, sillinger has always had the slight edge in ppg and generally was playing a bit higher level than guenther was in the same years.
The fact that many scouts have agreed that sillingers skating (his key weakness previously) was most improved this season, safe bet imo that he puts up 2ppg in the w like guenther did. Since guenther is unanimously top 5-10 in rankings (2 in both MacKenzie and pronman) I think sillinger is being overlooked for the exact reason you're bashing him. The ushl competition is perceived as lesser, but the degree to which sillinger dominated pretty much alone on his team is very comparable to someone else we know in their draft year:
Johnny g
To sum up: sillinger is a 6'1 200 lbs puck dominant centre with nhl bloodlines. His shot is one of the best in the draft and he has underrated vision. He tracks similarly point wise to a recognized top talent in the draft. He chose a league playing more games this year and perhaps that was the right choice if his skating has improved as alleged. Looked pretty good to me in the highlight package I posted earlier in the thread.
Last edited by KootenayFlamesFan; 06-19-2021 at 11:01 AM.
I made the point in my Silinger write-up that he had similar stats in his D minus 1 year (actually better) as Draisatl, and Nugent-Hopkins did in thier D minus 1 years-and both of them had over 100 points in their draft year. I have no doubt that if Sillinger was playing in the WHL this year, he would be hovering around the 100 point mark as well.
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RW Ilya Nazarov,6'3"176lbs (Loko Yaroslavl,MHL): 50gp/13g/11a/24pts,26PIM. Added 8pts in 15 playoff games. Naz plays on a talented team, with a lot of older players, so he's not getting the ice-time to rack up points. He plays down the lineup, and gets a lot of PK time, which he's become very good at. Left-shooting right-winger. He's another huge Russian that I heard was a good skater, so I watched a little film on him, and I can confirm that he can really move-it's quite impressive. He can forecheck deep, and still make it back to help defend the rush going the other way. Good first steps, long powerful stride, and he plays a fast-paced, hard, heavy game. Has jump, and a really good motor. Vision, hockey-sense, and puck skills are all above average, but he displays flashes of high-end skill-he can find teammates through traffic, and deke around defenders. Naz has good hands, with a hard wrister, and deceptive release-he plays in the net-front on the PP. Nazarov's speed and skill make him effective on the rush, and the cycle, and he's a threat to score short-handed. He also plays a physical game with an edge, throws big hits, and dominates the dirty areas. Nazarov only turned 18 a month ago, so as you can imagine, his game and physical maturity are still raw. He's going to get much bigger and stronger, and hopefully his offense comes along-he has all the tools. Naz has a very high ceiling-he could play on an NHL team's bottom-6 in the future, with PK time-but he may develop into a solid top-6 player. 4th round, perhaps.
LW Dimitri Nazarov,6'3"179lbs (Loko Yaroslavl,MHL): 27gp/4g/3a/7pts,33PIM. Added 6pts in 14 playoff games. "The other Naz" has many of the same assets as twin brother Ilya, but his game isn't as polished. Like his twin, he can move around the ice very, very well-he's light on his feet, and employs powerful extensions, and a good first few steps, along with agility on his edges in turns. He's big and physical, and very involved on the ice with a good work ethic, and high motor. Dmitri still has the tools, and shows flashes of high-end skill-already makes the right reads at the right times in both ends of the rink. He passes well, knows how to use his teammates, and has a good shot. Like Ilya, he's a bit inconsistent from shift-to-shift, in that he looks like a world-beater one shift, then ordinary on another. Dmitri's game is a bit more immature, so he'll need time to develop, and get bigger and stronger. He's still worthy of a pick, but he'll go in a later round if he gets chosen. Again, like his brother, he has a high ceiling-he could one day make an NHL team's bottom-6 as a defensive player, and penalty-killer, if he doesn't reach his offensive potential.
Last edited by Sandman; 06-17-2021 at 11:40 PM.
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RHD Vasili Machulin,6'4"194lbs (MHK Dynamo Moskva,MHL): 62gp/9g/16a/25pts,71PIM. Was passed over in last year's draft, although he barely got in, and would've been one of the youngest prospects. In Russia it's common for the teams to play 8 defensemen, with everyone getting ice-time. Of the 108 d-men that played 60 games or more, he's 4th in goals, sixth in shots (143),10th in scoring-but 74th in TOI (16:13), indicating some possible high offensive upside. He has excellent 4-directional mobility, balance, agility, and poise-his escapability can be too much for opponents to handle. Can break out on his own, with effective short-distance movement through, or around traffic. Good stick work and puck-control, and has a heavy, accurate shot. He's not the most physical, but when he decides to lay the body, he can humble even the biggest players. Shows good attention to defense, and protects his crease. One writer compared his game to Provorov's. Look for him in the late rounds of the draft, if he gets picked up.
C/W Maxim Krovyakov,6'3"181lbs (SKA-1946 St.Petersburg, MHL): 51gp/16g/25a/44pts,28PIM. Another big Russian who was passed over in last year's draft, because his shoot-first mentality made him look like a one-dimensional player. This year, he's been adding more and more layers to his game. Max is a beautiful skater, with great acceleration and top-speed, and he can change direction and speed effortlessly. Supports the play well, and has keen hockey sense. He's a threat with, or without the puck, and has improved his 200ft game. Plays a hard, physical game, and wins battles. He's good is his own zone, and uses his speed in all situations-including breaking up cycles, winning loose pucks, and pressuring the points. He's also quick and smart in transition-he can exit and enter with control. He owns a good, hard shot, and can pick corners-he's also good at using deception in his stick, and body language to manipulate defenders in to giving him the extra second to fire. Krovy needs to continue to work on using his teammates better-he's still learning the playmaking side of things, and it's been an adjustment. A player like this with his size, skating, sense, and physicality has a high floor. Like Machulin, he'll go in the later rounds, if at all.
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LW/RW Nikita Chibrikov,5'10"172lbs (SKA St.Petersburg,MHL): 11gp/3g/6a/9pts,12PIM. Also had stops in the men's leagues, the VHL (20gp/3g/5a/8pts,49PIM), and the KHL (16gp/1g/1a/2pts). His big coming out party was perhaps at the U-18s, where he put up 13pts in 7 games, with 14PIM-4th in tournament scoring, and team Captain. He was one of my favorites to watch, as he has that "get you out of your seat" quality, with unbelievable speed and the willingness to get his nose dirty. "He excels at getting the puck up ice and facilitating high-danger, high-octane offense"-EPRinkside.
As mentioned, Chibrikov has immense speed and skill, and lightning-fast acceleration-he beats opponents wide with regularity. He's unpredictable and elusive, can separate on the rush, and plays with pace. He's an elite skater, with fluid crossovers that generate power. Quite simply, he can dominate play in the offensive zone. Known for having fantastic puck-control, he maintains possession in tight spaces, and is uncommonly poised and calm with the puck. Another important part of his offensive game is his mastery of deception, which is a very translatable skill-he can manipulate the opposition with subtle head fakes, and hand/foot movements. Sublime hands, and gets the puck off in a hurry, and uses those deceptive moves to put the puck where he wants it to go. He has top-notch vision and anticipation, and can pull off quick, accurate passes in full flight-he's a great playmaker. He can find a teammate with a high-danger pass through traffic, even with a defender draped all over him. He's also great at saucer-passes over sticks. Processes the game at a high level, and reads the play well. With his speed and skill, he's also a threat in transition-he attacks open lanes, or carves them out for himself, and makes clean entries with control.
Chibrikov has plenty of grit and sandpaper in his game-he throws hits, battles hard in the corners, and isn't afraid to get his nose dirty. He wins battles for pucks. He will go to the net-front to get tips or rebounds, or to screen the goalie. He's aggressive on the forecheck, and protects the puck well. Great lower-body strength, with a low center of gravity makes it nearly impossible to knock off the puck. There's no doubt that Chibrikov is a high-end offensive winger, but his weaknesses are in his defensive game. Although he possesses IQ and vision in the other two zones, his defensive awareness and positioning aren't where they should be. He often drops assignments, fails to pick off passes, or misses closing out lanes that would've brought the time in his zone to an end. It may have something to do with his ebbing/flowing consistency and effort level on that side of the puck, although his effort at the junior level in this regard seems a lot higher, but there are some bad reads. His play without the puck is inconsistent too, as he sometimes looks lost when not in possession-that could be because he so often has the puck. He also needs to get stronger to handle the rigors of playing his type of game in the NHL. His contract with SKA is up after 2022-23.
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RW Samu Tuomaala,5'10"176lbs (Karpat U20): 30gp/15g/16a/31pts,28PIM. Added 4pts in 5 playoff games. Tied for fifth in scoring at the U-18s, with 11pts in 7 games. Tuomaala is a goal-scorer first and foremost, who is a play-driving winger. He works himself into the danger areas, and is good in-tight. He knows where to go to get a pass, and fire a one-timer. Expert at using defensemen as screens for his deceptive shot. Tuomaala is a high-end skater, who gets a lot of breakaway opportunities. He creates space for himself and his teammates-can back up the D. Great edges for tight maneuvers, and elusiveness to slip behind defenders.
Tuomaala has very good IQ-he finds space to create, or shoot. Creates lanes, and opens pockets. Many of the skills in his toolkit are high-end, like his vision and passing-his creativity makes him deceptive and unpredictable. He has a deadly wrist-shot with a lightning quick release, and has the ability to score in a variety of situations, and can shoot from anywhere, including the rush. Has a good net-front presence, and has no problem scoring garbage goals, rebounds, or tips. Sam is an elite stickhandler-he can carry or receive in full-flight. He can undress defenders, and dazzles on the forecheck. Highly confident with the puck on his stick, he can control through the neutral and offensive zone with apparent ease. His speed, puck control, and vision make him a great transitional player-he can exit and enter with full control. Solid work ethic, great hustle, and very quick to pucks.
Sam must work on his strength-he's not the most physical player, but it will help him win battles at the next level. Like many kids his age, his defensive game is not as good as his abilities in the offensive zone-his focus is on creating offense. He's not terrible, as he shows awareness there, but his effort and intensity can wane-although he showed more defensively in the U-18s. He has a foundation, he just needs to build on it, and he will get better with coaching, and I think he has the work-ethic to be better. The bigger challenge for him will be proving he can produce at higher levels, against better players, with less space and time. He has fallen a bit in some mocks, and draft lists-some think he'll go in the last third of the first-round, and some think he'll go early second. Either way, he projects as a top-6 winger.
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On the topic of what-ifs, are there any other players you guys think would be higher if the season’s played out like a normal season? I think the top 10 would be a lot more solidified if we had seen more of Guenther and Sillinger (as mentioned), but McTavish imo would’ve made a big statement.
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Maybe Lambos. Might have made it the big 5 in the top 10 of the Draft.
1-15 could look very different in a non covid environment. But I think the names would be the same.
I’ve started to warm up to Lambos. Obviously I believe there are better choices before him, especially at our pick, but a team that has a late teens pick could very well have the best defenseman in the draft. Lambos will be a sneaky pick like AZ did with Chychrun
I’ve started to warm up to Lambos. Obviously I believe there are better choices before him, especially at our pick, but a team that has a late teens pick could very well have the best defenseman in the draft. Lambos will be a sneaky pick like AZ did with Chychrun
I'm not sold on him. Just think D men in a draft like this are at a premium and if he had a larger sample size to do his thing he'd be right in the top ten too.
I also wonder if Aati Raty would rank higher in a non pandemic environment. It's kind of interesting that his play fell off around the same time the lock downs started.
On the topic of what-ifs, are there any other players you guys think would be higher if the season’s played out like a normal season? I think the top 10 would be a lot more solidified if we had seen more of Guenther and Sillinger (as mentioned), but McTavish imo would’ve made a big statement.
I would add Olen Zellweger. 13 points in 11 games is pretty good for a defenseman at that age.
Carson Lambos is another one (11 points in 13 U20 SM-sarja games)
Sebastian Cossa too (94.1% in 19 games). Logan Stankoven (10 points in 6 WHL games). He might've put up huge numbers in a full season.
A lot of the should-be OHL and WHL guys in general.
I would add Olen Zellweger. 13 points in 11 games is pretty good for a defenseman at that age.
Carson Lambos is another one (11 points in 13 U20 SM-sarja games)
Sebastian Cossa too (94.1% in 19 games). Logan Stankoven (10 points in 6 WHL games). He might've put up huge numbers in a full season.
A lot of the should-be OHL and WHL guys in general.
This is why I'd be wary of trading away our 1st round pick this year unless you're going all in for Eichel.
I think there are going to be TONS of kids picked in spots where they shouldn't have this year because of how volatile covid made the scouting etc. Kids drafted in the 10-20 range because they had limited playing time will end up going top 5 in a re-draft a few years from now.
At 12 we could hit a home run, it's actually crazy to imagine how the rankings would look if everyone played a normal season.
Sillinger, McTavish, Lysell, Lucius are all solid picks though I think both Sillinger and McTavish would jump rankings had they got to play a full year, Lucius too to some extent.
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