[News] Backlund line at top of the league in possession

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack

Backs is a possession monster with mediocre finish. if he actually did have finish, he would be Kopitar and cost 8-10M bucks.

Monahan is basically the opposite. maybe if they had a baby you'd end up with the ultimate franchise centre.

Monahan is basically 22. All development paths are different but Backlund was neither a possession or scoring monster at that age.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

So what would be a scenario where Backlund would have priced himself out of the Flames? 4.5? 5? 5.5?

What's your threshold for paying a centre who doesn't put up points? As good as he's been this season, he's still only on pace for ~35 points.

Just how much is 35 points worth?

To be honest, I don't know. Is it 4? 4.5? 5? I guess it all depends on the cap and what other contracts are up around then. I don't know what the magic number would be. How much was Regehr's 4.05 million was due to the offence he generated? Backlund is a defensive center and is utilized as such on the team.

While he may be on pace for ~35 points, that is not what he has produced in the last few years.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/p...php?pid=104255

0.51, 0.52 and 0.57 were Backlund's PPG for the last 3 seasons. I would expect him to pick it up for the rest of the season to hit around his average again. The entire team seemed unable to score much.

Backlund has also been a plus player the last 3 seasons. Now, it isn't that high, but considering he is the guy being tasked with shutting down the top lines in the NHL, it tells me that he is not only doing that, but he is out-scoring them while he is doing it. I am sure the advanced stats would probably support that statement.

How much is that worth? I don't know, but I know Treliving is going to open with more than what you would pay an average 35 point player.

[Mightyfire89]

Mikael Backlund is essentially Bob Gainey. Compare the stats (and the playing style). Gainey was known as the backbone of a very powerful mid to late 70s Habs team and also it's defensive conscience among the forwards. The famous Russian coach Viktor Tikhonov once called him the most complete player (or best all around player) in the world. If the Flames could ever get to the point where they're winning championships, that's how Backlund would be looked at.

I wouldn't give him up if I could help it.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Backlund plays against the top lines of the NHL, and is a plus player.

This means he plays against Kipitar, Getzlaf, Toews, Sedin, et al, and his line scores more than their lines.

That's worth a lot.

[jeffman]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack

Backs is a possession monster with mediocre finish. if he actually did have finish, he would be Kopitar and cost 8-10M bucks.

Monahan is basically the opposite. maybe if they had a baby you'd end up with the ultimate franchise centre.

Funny you say that as he is half Finnish!

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Backlund plays against the top lines of the NHL, and is a plus player.

This means he plays against Kipitar, Getzlaf, Toews, Sedin, et al, and his line scores more than their lines.

That's worth a lot.

If he is playing against these guys then why does Monahan have a huge majority of the faceoffs against them?

2015-16 faceoffs
Kopitar Monahan 48 - Backlund 18
Getzlaff Monahan 19 Backlund 23
Toews Monahan 33 Backlund 11
Sedin Monahan 45 Backlund 16

total of the players you suggest Backlund is up against Monahan 145 Backlund 68. Stajan had 19 faceoffs against Getzlaff.

from this stats it would suggest that Backlund is being protected.

stats source puckbase.com

[MrMastodonFarm]

Why are you using stats from last year ?

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

Why are you using stats from last year ?

larger sample size.

this year

Toews Monahan 38 backlund 14
Sedin Monahan 7 Backlund 1
Kopitar Monahan 10 Backlund 3
Getzlaff monahan 5 Getzlaff 10

basically the same pattern

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If he is playing against these guys then why does Monahan have a huge majority of the faceoffs against them?

2015-16 faceoffs
Kopitar Monahan 48 - Backlund 18
Getzlaff Monahan 19 Backlund 23
Toews Monahan 33 Backlund 11
Sedin Monahan 45 Backlund 16

total of the players you suggest Backlund is up against Monahan 145 Backlund 68. Stajan had 19 faceoffs against Getzlaff.

from this stats it would suggest that Backlund is being protected.

stats source puckbase.com

You should separate home versus away. I don't know what it would reveal, but if Monahan takes away faceoffs would mean that opponents are steering their top lines away from Backlund and at Monahan, or are at least indifferent.

Kopitar facing Monahan more is more of an indication that Sutter wants Monahan checked by Kopitar than Monahan being assigned to check Kopitar. Plus Carter is the faster guy, and better checked by Backlund.

Arguably Toews is the same, since Backlund might be assigned the Anisimov/Kane line. Toews is out there to shut down Monahan, not the other way around. Backlund is trying to shut down Kane.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You should separate home versus away. I don't know what it would reveal, but if Monahan takes away faceoffs would mean that opponents are steering their top lines away from Backlund and at Monahan, or are at least indifferent.

Kopitar facing Monahan more is more of an indication that Sutter wants Monahan checked by Kopitar than Monahan being assigned to check Kopitar. Plus Carter is the faster guy, and better checked by Backlund.

Arguably Toews is the same, since Backlund might be assigned the Anisimov/Kane line. Toews is out there to shut down Monahan, not the other way around. Backlund is trying to shut down Kane.

Totally agree... but it is not like Backlund is at all like Gainey That he is being put out as a shut down guy against the best players and the other team is taking steps to avoid him.

Kopitar/Carter ..... Backlund is not big/strong enough to play against Kopitar. Getzlaff/Kesller.... again Kessler is likely harder to match up physicallly although that is a hard matchup and teh Ducks would rather have Kessler checking Monahan.

Backlund faceoff stats should be inflated against top guys because he is the #1 guy on the PK.

Sedin makes no sense at all.... bad line management by coach?

Totally believe that the other teams are comfortable matching top-lines

[Bourque's Twin]

Backlund also has the skills. At the Flames comp he won fastest skater and hardest shot.

If Backlund (13.786) were at last year's all star game he would've placed 5th, beating out Karlsson, Letang, Duchene, and Bfyuglien.

Backlund 's 103.3 mph shot would've placed 3rd at last year's all star game:
Weber 108.1
Stamkos 103.9
Subban 102.3 mph
Byfuglien 99.6 mph
Evgeni Malkin 97.0 mph
John Scott 95.9 mph
Tyler Seguin 95.0 mph
Aaron Ekblad 93.4 mph

[Monahan For Mayor]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Backlund also has the skills. At the Flames comp he won fastest skater and hardest shot.

If Backlund (13.786) were at last year's all star game he would've placed 5th, beating out Karlsson, Letang, Duchene, and Bfyuglien.

Backlund 's 103.3 mph shot would've placed 3rd at last year's all star game:
Weber 108.1
Stamkos 103.9
Subban 102.3 mph
Byfuglien 99.6 mph
Evgeni Malkin 97.0 mph
John Scott 95.9 mph
Tyler Seguin 95.0 mph
Aaron Ekblad 93.4 mph

I like Backs but let's not pretend this has much importance. He hardly ever uses slap shots, and he doesn't have the hands to utilize that speed. Well I mean it's good that he's fast, but I wouldn't get caught up in that skills competition.

[Erick Estrada]

Backlund has had a great season but he's not the type of player you overpay to keep as you can't keep everyone. Teams get into cap trouble when they start overvaluing bottom 6 forwards and bottom pairing defensemen. If Backlund wants to stay on a fair/below market value deal then I'm fine with retaining him otherwise I would save the cap space and roll the dice on Jankowski taking the 3rd line center role. Lance Bouma is a prime example of how you can't overpay for intangibles and a career season from a bottom six forward.

[Bourque's Twin]

Originally Posted by Monahan For Mayor

I like Backs but let's not pretend this has much importance. He hardly ever uses slap shots, and he doesn't have the hands to utilize that speed. Well I mean it's good that he's fast, but I wouldn't get caught up in that skills competition.

He certainly uses his speed without the puck, to get good positioning and to forecheck. Sure, he's not going to wind up with huge slap shots all the time, but it shows that he's not lacking strength, which is nice because he's a player who used to be on the weaker side.

[anyonebutedmonton]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Backlund has had a great season but he's not the type of player you overpay to keep as you can't keep everyone. Teams get into cap trouble when they start overvaluing bottom 6 forwards and bottom pairing defensemen. If Backlund wants to stay on a fair/below market value deal then I'm fine with retaining him otherwise I would save the cap space and roll the dice on Jankowski taking the 3rd line center role. Lance Bouma is a prime example of how you can't overpay for intangibles and a career season from a bottom six forward.

Please never compare Bouma and Backlund.

Completely different players. Backlund is an elite 3C that can step in and make his linemates better. Bouma is an NHL/AHL tweener that had a nice year and got paid.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CsInMyBlood]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Backlund has had a great season but he's not the type of player you overpay to keep as you can't keep everyone. Teams get into cap trouble when they start overvaluing bottom 6 forwards and bottom pairing defensemen. If Backlund wants to stay on a fair/below market value deal then I'm fine with retaining him otherwise I would save the cap space and roll the dice on Jankowski taking the 3rd line center role. Lance Bouma is a prime example of how you can't overpay for intangibles and a career season from a bottom six forward.

Funny thing is the only reason Bouma had that nice year was because of Backlund.

If the Flames do not re-sign Backlund before he becomes a UFA, then he will most certainly get a sweet deal from another team. He wont have to take a below market deal.

Really hope Treliving knows what he has in Backlund and gets him signed.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Defensive ability isn't a hockey intangible, ee.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Backlund has had a great season but he's not the type of player you overpay to keep as you can't keep everyone. Teams get into cap trouble when they start overvaluing bottom 6 forwards and bottom pairing defensemen. If Backlund wants to stay on a fair/below market value deal then I'm fine with retaining him otherwise I would save the cap space and roll the dice on Jankowski taking the 3rd line center role. Lance Bouma is a prime example of how you can't overpay for intangibles and a career season from a bottom six forward.

I think you can overpay (slightly) on a good 3rd line center that you can utilize as a shutdown guy and who can put some points up as well.

As for Bouma, that is actually a good example. Why did Bouma get his raise? Because Backlund got him that raise. Put anyone next to Backlund, and it seems that player improves. To me, that is worth something. Again, how much that something is, I don't know, but I would guess it would be around Frolik's contract, give a bit more for being a center, take a bit less in the form of a home-town discount.

It gets tricky in a cap world. Ideally you never overpay anyone. Period. The more guys you have out-performing their contracts, the better shape you are organizationally and the better chance you have of success.

However, if you are going to overpay players, then they better be difference makers, guys that help the team win, or guys that help other players better. Backlund probably checks off 1 or 2 if not all 3. It will definitely be interesting to see what the Flames sign him for, or if not, what he ends up signing for with whomever.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I think you can overpay (slightly) on a good 3rd line center that you can utilize as a shutdown guy and who can put some points up as well.

As for Bouma, that is actually a good example. Why did Bouma get his raise? Because Backlund got him that raise. Put anyone next to Backlund, and it seems that player improves. To me, that is worth something. Again, how much that something is, I don't know, but I would guess it would be around Frolik's contract, give a bit more for being a center, take a bit less in the form of a home-town discount.

It gets tricky in a cap world. Ideally you never overpay anyone. Period. The more guys you have out-performing their contracts, the better shape you are organizationally and the better chance you have of success.

However, if you are going to overpay players, then they better be difference makers, guys that help the team win, or guys that help other players better. Backlund probably checks off 1 or 2 if not all 3. It will definitely be interesting to see what the Flames sign him for, or if not, what he ends up signing for with whomever.

Problem is IMO that Backlund could possibly get grossly overpaid in free agency (if he can maintain this play through next season) and if his agent is expecting the Flames to pay UFA money then I simply don't see how a deal could get done. They have him signed for another season so really there's no rush to negotiate. I don't want a repeat of the Giordano extension where they re-signed him coming off off a career season when he still had another year on his existing deal. I'm not so sure the Flames got any sort of discount out of that deal when you consider the term and the fact he's kind of slowly trending down already.