Arm-Chair GM: Three 1st round picks for Nate McKinnon

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

If the Flames spend to the cap next season they will draft top 3 for sure. Last year 2 days before July 1 Feaster had 18 million in cap space. HE SPENT IT ALL and came away with Comeau, Stempniak, Sarich, Wideman and Hudler.

The more he tries to make the Flames better the worse they become.

The 2013 Flames weren't in a playoff spot for one single day, traded their best forward, their best defenseman and are likely losing their best goalie for nothing. And if it weren't a few garbagetime wins down the stretch they would easily be picking top 3 this year.

That 2014 pick is the most valuable asset the Flames have. They aren't going to get better anytime soon, especially if Feaster goes shopping on July 5.

I don't think it is a sure thing that the flames will be in the bottom 3 if they spend to the cap. For the bloded part, Iggy was not our best forward last year and his play for the last 2 seasons was not as great as posters make it out to be. Add in that it looks like they want to trade Iggy's buddy Tanguay, and that's 2 main floating players from last year being replaced. If they spend lots of money ( i don't want them to do this) on 2 players that play top 6 and play in all areas of the ice they will get more wins.

Kipper was not great last year and sadly was outplayed by McDonald. This will be the area that could determine if flames are bottom 3 or bottom 10 next year. If Ramo is above average and McDonald does what he does then i am not sure they are bottom 3.

JBO minutes will be hard to replace and the flames will miss him more than they will Iggy and Tangauy. If they spend money on an offer sheet for a top 4 d-man that can also play physical it will probably lead to more wins.

Basically what i am saying is that if they spend to the cap i think they stay in the bottom 6-10 range, but if they stick with the team they have now they will be bottom 3. I rather they do the latter, but it does not sound like they want to go that way.

[moon]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

If you're willing to move 3 first rounders, you can do better than some kid from juniors who may or may not actually pan out. Thats a Big Time return.

If you're throwing three 1sts (and are presumably willing to move roster players as well) at a team, you should be talking about guys like Seguin, Duschene, Cutoure, Hodgeson, etc.

Which one of those centers are going to be remotely available for trade and in what world is Hodgson included with those guys or a better option than MacKinnon?

The reason people are talking about trading for the draft pick is that there a somewhat reasonable (pretty small though) possibility that it could be dealt, trading for those centers is not.

[Igottago]

While it does seem tempting to throw the kitchen sink for the 1st overall pick and get MacKinnon, if the Flames should have learned anything from the Iginla era is that you can't put all your eggs in one basket and expect to get anywhere. To really be a contender you need a crop of good core players, not just one. I think trading picks plus Sven/Brodie would be a huge mistake. If you could do a mix of 1 or 2 picks plus some of the veteran roster players (Gio, Glencross), I'd be all for it.

If you can somehow land MacKinnon and hang onto Sven, Brodie, Gudreau, etc, then you have some real foundations moving forward.

[The Voice of Reason]

I would expect Colorado wants to come away from the draft with at least one of Jones/MacKinnon/Drouin. So while it may be plausable to trade Sven, John G and a quiver full of picks to Colorado for the 1st overall, that seems like an overpayment (from the Flames side) when Colorado is likely expecting to make a deal with one of the teams from Florida. It would gut the Flames ability to add prospects to their system. Successful prospects that become NHLer are key to having success in the NHL.

What I expect to see is the Flames draft 3 times in the first round. Hopefully, strike it rich with two of those picks and move forwards trying to get legit NHL talent on the roster.

Don't get me wrong, I think MacKinnon will be a stud at the NHL level and he'd be welcomed with open arms on any roster. But at the end of the draft, I don't think Colorado wants to make a deal that results in them coming away without one of the top three.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Kipper was not great last year and sadly was outplayed by McDonald. This will be the area that could determine if flames are bottom 3 or bottom 10 next year. If Ramo is above average and McDonald does what he does then i am not sure they are bottom 3.

Ramo is 11-22 in the NHL, with a 3.35 GAA and .895 save percentage. It's pretty optimistic to think he'll be a better than average NHL goalie this time around. And we all know how much 'best goalie outside the NHL' means.

Originally Posted by kyuss275

JBO minutes will be hard to replace and the flames will miss him more than they will Iggy and Tangauy. If they spend money on an offer sheet for a top 4 d-man that can also play physical it will probably lead to more wins.

Basically what i am saying is that if they spend to the cap i think they stay in the bottom 6-10 range, but if they stick with the team they have now they will be bottom 3. I rather they do the latter, but it does not sound like they want to go that way.

I pretty much agree. However, if the mandate is to make the playoffs, Feaster will go after Smith - and he'll have enough money to get him. We'll know this summer if the franchise is interested in rebuilding the team, or just trying to squeak into the playoffs every season.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Igottago

While it does seem tempting to throw the kitchen sink for the 1st overall pick and get MacKinnon, if the Flames should have learned anything from the Iginla era is that you can't put all your eggs in one basket and expect to get anywhere. To really be a contender you need a crop of good core players, not just one. I think trading picks plus Sven/Brodie would be a huge mistake. If you could do a mix of 1 or 2 picks plus some of the veteran roster players (Gio, Glencross), I'd be all for it.

If you can somehow land MacKinnon and hang onto Sven, Brodie, Gudreau, etc, then you have some real foundations moving forward.

I think this is a good post. I agree that we should be looking big picture and think about overall depth and looking at areas we can improve. If you look at our best prospects and try and develop a depth chart you can see some problems.

Bartschi-xxx-Backlund
Gaudreau-Jankowski-Agostini
Glencross-Reinhart-Granlund
Ferlund-Arnold-Hanowski

These are pretty well all of our best prospects and players that have a real shot at the NHL up front. Our whole right side are converted from other positions. I wouldn't be overly disappointed to see a lineup like this, but I think there are areas where we can improve upon it in a big way. Three first rounders would go a long way to filling some of those missing pieces and give us depth. I would keep them and target guys that can improve our depth all around. We have the makings of a good lineup, but what we need is a few players that will give us more quality up top and push some of these guys down the roster for greater depth.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Rather than having a "decent chance" at a comparable player I'd rather just draft him this year. Is anyone next year even close to MacKinnon?

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

But that 'decent chance' is a free draft pick (as opposed to costing us multiple quality assets).

Why massively overpay for MacKinnon when the Flames have multiple holes that need to be addressed.

Take our three picks with the hopes of getting two quality players with them and then look toward another top 5 - likely top 3 - pick next year (that costs us nothing).

In fact, there is a good chance that we'll have more than one 1st-rounder again next year as well.

Building a team is similar to investing in that patience is a vital, and under-rated, discipline.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by calgARI

I strongly agree. Everyone out there saying the Flames will completely suck next year ignore what Columbus did this year with one of the worst on-paper teams I have ever seen, ignore what Florida did last year with a bunch of mercs, and what Phoenix has been doing for three years. Of course terrible management and a coach who isn't exactly a defensive focused guy make this a different situation.

Goaltending.

And it is a huge question mark for the Flames this season (as it top 4 D).

[calgARI]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Goaltending.

And it is a huge question mark for the Flames this season (as it top 4 D).

Again, refer to Columbus or Phoenix or Florida.

CBJ had Bobrovsky and Mason going into the season.

Phoenix was expected to drop up a ton after Bryzgalov left.

Florida had Theodore.

Am I saying Ramo/Berra/MacDonald will be that good? No. I'm just saying that no one thought Bobrovsky, Smith, or Theodore would be as good as they were in those seasons either.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But that 'decent chance' is a free draft pick (as opposed to costing us multiple quality assets).

Why massively overpay for MacKinnon when the Flames have multiple holes that need to be addressed.

Take our three picks with the hopes of getting two quality players with them and then look toward another top 5 - likely top 3 - pick next year (that costs us nothing).

In fact, there is a good chance that we'll have more than one 1st-rounder again next year as well.

Building a team is similar to investing in that patience is a vital, and under-rated, discipline.

For the record I supported using either this years first or next years first, not both. You have to add other assets but that's the price for aquiring an elite centre.

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Ramo is 11-22 in the NHL, with a 3.35 GAA and .895 save percentage. It's pretty optimistic to think he'll be a better than average NHL goalie this time around. And we all know how much 'best goalie outside the NHL' means.

We'll see how Ramo pans out but it's not really fair to judge him by how he played years ago as a 20-22 year old rookie goaltender. He has had several successful pro seasons since then.

Not to compare the two but Kiprusoff was 5-14 with a 3.25GAA and .879 SPC the year before he came here.

[Rubicant]

As much as I would like to get three impact players with our 3 1st rounders this year, the odds of that don't seem to be in our favour. MacKinnon looks to be a franchise player - and centre that contending teams build around. I would easily give our 3 1st rounders away to draft him.

Looking back at the 2003 draft at the players selected roughly where we will be picking, would anyone not trade the 3 for Eric Staal?

6 - Milan Michalek
21 - Mark Stuart / 22 - Marc-Antoine Pouliot
29 - Patrick Eaves / 30 - Shawn Belle

I know there were a lot of fantastic players picked in the first round that year, but that doesn't mean you get them with each pick.

2004 - Would anyone not trade the following package for Evgeni Malkin / Alex Ovechkin?

6 - Al Montoya
21 - Wojtek Wolski / 22 - Lukas Kaspar
29 - Mike Green / 30 - Andy Rogers

2005 - Anyone not willing to trade this package for Crosby?

6 - Gilbert Brule
21 - Tuuka Rask / 22 - Matt Lashoff
29 - Steve Downie / 30 - Vladimir Mihalik

[_Q_]

Yeah, I think a lot of people here get too excited with the hype surrounding the draft. Most guys that are picked in the first round end up being no more than 3rd/4th liners or career AHLers.

I say the Flames do whatever it takes to move up into the top 3 and that includes trading any picks or prospects (within reason of course).

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Rubicant

As much as I would like to get three impact players with our 3 1st rounders this year, the odds of that don't seem to be in our favour. MacKinnon looks to be a franchise player - and centre that contending teams build around. I would easily give our 3 1st rounders away to draft him.

Looking back at the 2003 draft at the players selected roughly where we will be picking, would anyone not trade the 3 for Eric Staal?

I agree. Even with the deeper than average draft, the chances of those 20-30 picks of being impact players is still pretty low. The top 5 this year are still cream of the crop and a team would be stupid to trade out of that.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Jacks

For the record I supported using either this years first or next years first, not both. You have to add other assets but that's the price for aquiring an elite centre.


We'll see how Ramo pans out but it's not really fair to judge him by how he played years ago as a 20-22 year old rookie goaltender. He has had several successful pro seasons since then.

Not to compare the two but Kiprusoff was 5-14 with a 3.25GAA and .879 SPC the year before he came here.

Sure. But at this point it's optimistic to think either one of Ramo or Berra will stick as an NHL backup, let alone establish himself as a starter, let alone become an above-average NHL starter. It's not impossible. Just unlikely.

The Flames are going into next season with a bigger question mark around goaltending than I can recall any team in the league having in the last 5 years. Personally, I'd be happy to throw those guys into the breach, hope to get lucky, and take our top 3 or top 5 pick in the likelihood that they don't work out. However, I doubt that's the way this management team sees it.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Sure. But at this point it's optimistic to think either one of Ramo or Berra will stick as an NHL backup, let alone establish himself as a starter, let alone become an above-average NHL starter. It's not impossible. Just unlikely.

The Flames are going into next season with a bigger question mark around goaltending than I can recall any team in the league having in the last 5 years. Personally, I'd be happy to throw those guys into the breach, hope to get lucky, and take our top 3 or top 5 pick in the likelihood that they don't work out. However, I doubt that's the way this management team sees it.

Well it looks like that definitely isn't the way they are going as they seem to have Craig MacDonald as their continegency plan, in case either of their "best goalie not in the NHL" doesn't turn out.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jacks

For the record I supported using either this years first or next years first, not both. You have to add other assets but that's the price for aquiring an elite centre.


We'll see how Ramo pans out but it's not really fair to judge him by how he played years ago as a 20-22 year old rookie goaltender. He has had several successful pro seasons since then.

Not to compare the two but Kiprusoff was 5-14 with a 3.25GAA and .879 SPC the year before he came here.

No, the point of my post and the original one that you quoted was that we don't need to pay that price for an elite C because there is a very good chance that we'll get one next year for free (as well as getting a very good one this year, along with other assets)

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

No, the point of my post and the original one that you quoted was that we don't need to pay that price for an elite C because there is a very good chance that we'll get one next year for free (as well as getting a very good one this year, along with other assets)

We're going in circles here but there is certainly no guarantee that we will be getting an elite player next year, we may end up with a mid round pick. If the deal was available we would be guaranteed what is surely an elite player this year. Again, not talking about giving up the world but our first rounder (either this year or next), one of the other 2 first rounders this year and a player/prospect would be okay with me.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Jacks

We're going in circles here but there is certainly no guarantee that we will be getting an elite player next year, we may end up with a mid round pick. If the deal was available we would be guaranteed what is surely an elite player this year. Again, not talking about giving up the world but our first rounder (either this year or next), one of the other 2 first rounders this year and a player/prospect would be okay with me.

There is no guarantee you are getting an elite player with any pick. Just because there is a massive amount of hype surrounding this year's draft doesn't mean there are any guarantees of stardom for anyone drafted. That is why three lottery tickets is better than one, even if you are spotted two of six numbers on the first ticket. You people wanted a rebuild, so here it is. Let the club do things right and quit hoping for the home run and ending up being disappointed or pissed when it doesn't come to fruition.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by New Era

That is why three lottery tickets is better than one, even if you are spotted two of six numbers on the first ticket.

Ya, mathwise that makes no sense whatsoever.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Ya, mathwise that makes no sense whatsoever.

Common sense wise it makes no sense either and that is ignoring the fact that in the draft all "lottery tickets" aren't equal.