2011/12 Toronto Blue Jays Off-Season

[flames_1987]

I've included the Texas Rangers attendance figures which do a great job of showing just how incredibly out of touch that article is, but here's the entire article refuting every point made in it http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/0...ney-reasoning/

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

What pace are you talking about? At this pace the Jays, on AA's 3rd year as the GM are on quite a freaking torrid pace when you also take into account the Jays traded their best player in Roy Halladay in AA's first year.

In 3 years the Jays have gone from the 28th to #1-#3 farm system in the entire Majors. They dumped Vernon Well's contract, traded for Brett Lawrie, signed and have locked down players on incredibly team friendly contracts and team options. They've been more competitive then anyone thought they would, they loose no important pieces of their team from last year and only add upgrades in certain areas. AA remains being complimented by the entire baseball world on nearly every trade he makes and people continue to rave about how the Jays organization is setting itself up to be going forward. They once again have another draft with high picks coming and they don't have ONE bad contract or long term commitment that doesn't give this team incredible flexibility.


It's a total lack of ignorance to the farm system, to knowing anything about the prospects or wanting too, not seeing direct results right away and therefor throwing the "bust" label on every young player on the Jays current 40 man roster.

I know all that.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/au...vin_goldstein/

Five-Star Prospects
1. Travis d’Arnaud, C
2. Jake Marisnick, OF
Four-Star Prospects
3. Daniel Norris, LHP
4. Anthony Gose, OF
5. Noah Snydergaard, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
6. Drew Hutchison, RHP
7. Justin Nicolino, LHP
8. Deck McGuire, RHP
9. Adonys Cardona, RHP
10. Kevin Comer, RHP
11. Christopher Hawkins, OF
Nine More:
12. Aaron Sanchez, RHP: He’s still a high-ceiling arm, but he will need more work than was anticipated.
13. Jacob Anderson, OF: This supplemental first-round pick is a long, lean athlete with power potential.
14. Joe Musgrove, RHP: Musgrove, who was taken just 11 picks after Anderson, is a physical beast with plus velocity and an advanced breaking ball.
15. Dwight Smith, OF: The son of the former Cub inherited his father's hitting ability, but not his speed.
16. A.J. Jimenez, C: This under-the-radar backstop has a line-drive bat and an outstanding arm.
17. Matt Dean, 3B: This over-slot 13th-round pick has a classic third-base profile with power and defensive skills.
18. Asher Wojciechowski, RHP: This 2010 supplemental pick lost velocity under a pro workload.
19. Carlos Perez, C: Perez’s full-season debut disappointed, and his lack of physicality is a concern.
20. Adeiny Hechavarria, SS: Hechavarria is a plus-plus defender. The Jays hope he will hit ninth in the lineup.

Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (born 4/1/86 or later)
1. Brett Lawrie, 3B
2. Travis d’Arnaud, C
3. Jake Marisnick, OF
4. Henderson Alvarez, RHP
5. Kyle Drabek, RHP
6. Daniel Norris, LHP
7. Colby Rasumus, OF
8. Travis Snider, OF
9. Anthony Gose, OF
10. Noah Snydergaard, RHP



But I want some FAs too, not every single one.

I think this line is important.

Summary: Toronto has one of the best systems in baseball, and a chance to do what at times seems an impossible task: to compete in the American League East. Prospects and young talent will help, but the Blue Jays also need to stop being the bridesmaids with elite free agents.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Counter-point.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseba...costly#article

Looking at the comments in both the column you posted and the column I posted.. people are clearly on both sides with different philosophies.

The counterpoint is essentially "it's not our money so Rogers should spend, spend, spend!". It's hilarious that the fanbase of a team that just found ways to get out of the Wells and Rios contracts wants to immediately spend that money on big-name free agents with some big red flags.

I'd like to know what other organizations in the past have used this proposed philosophy of 'spend big when you're average so you have your big-name free agents when the rest of the organization catches up' and found success doing it.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I think this line is important.

Summary: Toronto has one of the best systems in baseball, and a chance to do what at times seems an impossible task: to compete in the American League East. Prospects and young talent will help, but the Blue Jays also need to stop being the bridesmaids with elite free agents.

That line is important.

But there's two ways to do it - massively outbid the other teams now while we're still average (otherwise why would he come to lesser attractive destination with little chance of immediate success) or wait until the prospects develop and we're flooded with talent and are competing for the division.

[Parallex]

LOLZ

That was funny (the total lack of ignorance line and assoreted emotocons).

________________________

In all seriousness, I think there are perfectly rational arguments on both sides of the argument. On one hand it's perfectly reasonable for someone to say that we're only on year three of the Anthopoulos reign... on the other hand it's also perfectly reasonable to say that we're now close to measuring the Toronto Blue Jay rebuild era by the decade rather then by the year.

In other words... no need for anyone to make it personal.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by JayP

The counterpoint is essentially "it's not our money so Rogers should spend, spend, spend!". It's hilarious that the fanbase of a team that just found ways to get out of the Wells and Rios contracts wants to immediately spend that money on big-name free agents with some big red flags.

I'd like to know what other organizations in the past have used this proposed philosophy of 'spend big when you're average so you have your big-name free agents when the rest of the organization catches up' and found success doing it.

San Francisco comes to mind. Was very average after the Bonds era then added players like Zito (I know a bust), Rowand, Renteria, DeRosa, Sanchez, Molina, Huff... all this while the young core of Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, Sandoval, Schierholtz, Posey etc.. caught up.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I

But I want some FAs too, not every single one.

I think this line is important.

Summary: Toronto has one of the best systems in baseball, and a chance to do what at times seems an impossible task: to compete in the American League East. Prospects and young talent will help, but the Blue Jays also need to stop being the bridesmaids with elite free agents.

That's fine, I can get why people would want Prince Fielder he can hit the ball extremely well. But not getting him as a Free Agent then saying that there will be none like him for the next 5 years, the Jays have gone backwards from last season, pretty much belittling the team in every possible way because the Jays didn't sign one free agent. It's hard to understand your point when you tear down the Jays as being worse then the Baltimore Orioles, say this team can't contend if every little thing goes right till 2015, call Arron Hill an upgrade over Kelly Johnson, Morrow took a step back this year, Snider, Rasmus, Drabek, all painted as busts and not even once factoring in, or discussing the fact that the Jays do quite arguably have the best farm system in baseball.

Eric Bedard is not a good free agent. Harrang is not a good free agent. They do nothing to make this Jays team better short term or long term. Free agency means almost every time overpaying in both dollars and term. Any of the free agents you have listed besides Prince Fielder do nothing to better this team short term, or long term but act as instant gratification. There is just as many question marks to him as there are to anything. 1) Can he put up the same power numbers playing in a new ball park 2) How quickly will he wear down 3) If your going to invest that much money in Prince Fielder, how much does it limit you for adding other key pieces, which the Jays will need to do, going forward 4) How much does this handicap the entire roster if the Jays are still not successful with Fielder, attendance has not approved, and you're forced to make cuts to other parts of your roster to cut salary?

I'm fine with wanting to sign Prince Fielder, I think it's a huge overpayment for someone who will most likely be a DH in a few years, with a contract that backloaded it could tie you down for half a decade, and the Jays are in a place to make that move both through ownership or where they are at as a franchise. But he has a great bat and I can understand or at least listen to people wanting him.

What really has caused a reaction on here has been "The Jays didn't get Fielder so nothing AA is doing or has done to this team matters". The Baltimore Orioles are a better team, Kelly Johnson, Morrow, Drabek-Snyder-Rasmus, digressing from last season, and the list goes on, about just saying something bold, with no factual evidence and not backing it up after being said with statistics or detail. Just simply one-liners being thrown out.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by Parallex

LOLZ

That was funny (the total lack of ignorance line and assoreted emotocons).

________________________

In all seriousness, I think there are perfectly rational arguments on both sides of the argument. On one hand it's perfectly reasonable for someone to say that we're only on year three of the Anthopoulos reign... on the other hand it's also perfectly reasonable to say that we're now close to measuring the Toronto Blue Jay rebuild era by the decade rather then by the year.

In other words... no need for anyone to make it personal.

First off, it's never going to be personal, it's a message board discussing sports, no personal insults being thrown anybodys way.

It's not perfectly reasonable to say that, it's a totally different culture, different team, different GM. It's not fair to say "the last guy told us we were rebuilding so I have the right to not look at this objectionably". It's a complete different case of circumstances, of results, and way of thinking.

[Jason14h]

But the Jays do have a finite amount of funds to bid. They have to be careful when/where to spend the funds.

There are 3 great FA pitchers potentially available on the open market next year. I would must rather see them spend and go after them, then have spent of Fielder in a year we know we are at least a season (and extra wildcard team) away from having a chance.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by JayP

I'd like to know what other organizations in the past have used this proposed philosophy of 'spend big when you're average so you have your big-name free agents when the rest of the organization catches up' and found success doing it.

Interesting thought experiment. Let's look at the reigning champions in the four major sports (off the top of my head, not much research done on this post):

Packers: Prototypical farm team, but they did spend big on Woodson who spent a few seasons with the prospects before being a championship-calibre team.

Bruins: Chara seems like another great example of what you're looking for.

Cardinals: Had a few big-ticket acquisitions after their last championship, I'd think that when they brought in Holliday and Berkman they were average and over-spending. They did have the best player in the game though.

Mavericks: Kidd and Marion, but this is more of a team trying to get better before their window closed than prospects boosting them with solidified free agent signings.

Doesn't seem that rare to me though.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

San Francisco comes to mind. Was very average after the Bonds era then added players like Zito (I know a bust), Rowand, Renteria, DeRosa, Sanchez, Molina, Huff... all this while the young core of Lincecum, Cain, Wilson, Sandoval, Schierholtz, Posey etc.. caught up.

#1 Playing in the NL West is a lot different then the AL east and you have to build your teams accordingly.

#2- Aaron Rowand was awful as a Giant. Derosa was even worse. Bengina Molina was awful as well. All busts, just look at there statistics as Giants

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

It's not perfectly reasonable to say that, it's a totally different culture, different team, different GM.

We're going to have to agree to disagree on that point. It's not a different team... same team, same market, same fans, same experience. I'm just saying that I understand the fustration and have some empathy for it. I don't always agree nor do I always disagree.

You can only tell someone "soon" for something so long before they start insisting on "now" regardless of who is uttering the words.

[GirlySports]

Just in 2012 Baltimore will finish ahead of the Jays, that's my bold and angry prediction.

I just wanted a 1-2 year free agent to fill in the rotation to maintain the team at 81 wins not a gamebreaker, we not contending in 2012 and 2013 anyways. Just a transition gap, not for the future. Like what San Francisco did in 2009 and 2010 as I mentioned above.

If you're going by the playing the kids take two steps back to go 5 steps forward then 2012 will be the Blue Jays worse year as they try and figure things out.

I don't believe Fielder takes up money, it's Rogers, they can afford the extra 20 million per season.

Don't be so sure about Kelly Johnson, two teams have given up on him for a reason.
He couldn't even hit well in ballpark friendly Arizona. I have a sneaky feeling Hill will have a good year in 2012.

And to finish off, the Royals have the best farm system in the majors and I'm not sure they're going anywhere either

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by Parallex

We're going to have to agree to disagree on that point. It's not a different team... same team, same market, same fans, same experience. I'm just saying that I understand the fustration and have some empathy for it. I don't always agree nor do I always disagree.

You can only tell someone "soon" for something so long before they start insisting on "now" regardless of who is uttering the words.

If people want to complain about the history of this club before AA and some of the bad decisions and contracts that were made, that's fine. But I draw the line where that somehow is a valid excuse to complain about the work AA has done, about needing to somehow speed up the entire process to win right freaking now because it's been a long time. No team is ever successful doing that.

And clearly there are a ton of differences between the entire franchise right now from top to bottom.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flames_1987

#1 Playing in the NL West is a lot different then the AL east and you have to build your teams accordingly.

#2- Aaron Rowand was awful as a Giant. Derosa was even worse. Bengina Molina was awful as well. All busts, just look at there statistics as Giants

But they won! And I think more important they filled in the gaps while the others were deveolping at the right levels, on the bench or in AAA.

I think we will both agree that there's nothing worse then having someone play in the majors who isn't ready to. It stunts development.

I fear that might happen to the Jays.


-----

And yes nothing personal, I've thoroughly enjoyed this debate

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Just in 2012 Baltimore will finish ahead of the Jays, that's my bold and angry prediction.

I respectfully disagree. Jays finish 4th unless TB Rays have a significant rotation injury... in which case 3rd.

Originally Posted by flames_1987

But I draw the line where that somehow is a valid excuse to complain about the work AA has done

I don't think anyone really complains about the job that AA has done. I think most folk think he's done the best he could with what he's been given... I think the real difference of opinion is whether he's being given enough to get the job done.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

But they won! And I think more important they filled in the gaps while the others were deveolping at the right levels, on the bench or in AAA.

I think we will both agree that there's nothing worse then having someone play in the majors who isn't ready to. It stunt development.

I fear that might happen to the Jays.


-----

And yes nothing personal, I've thoroughly enjoyed this debate

Once again, it comes down to statistics and again your logic/arguments feature none of them.

Those Giants players I listed had truly horrible years. The Giants winning the World Series had nothing to do with them

If you have free agents, besides Prince Fielder or Yu Darvish that you fill could bridge the gap and are clear improvements over what the Jays opening roster would be right now, please do tell me. (Bedard and Harrang are not the answer to that question)

If anything the Jays have been the exact opposite in terms of rushing talent to the Major League. Who do you feel on the Jays roster is not ready to be in the Major Leagues? Can't say Lawrie. Alvarez showed he was good enough to be on the roster in 2012. The only young player who didn't look ready was Snider and the Jays inserted Thames for him and had no problem sending him down.

If anything the Jays are being incredibly patient and have shown they will not rush young talent for instant gratification.

Kelly Johnson clearly is a better 2B then Hill. Statistics prove that, but if you believe Hill is somehow ready to improve drastically this season, then more power to you

[SuperMatt18]

Spending money just because you have money to spend is not the answer. If you dont feel Prince is worth 23 million per for the next nine years don't make that move because it's likely that 200 million can be spent in better ways.

Tampa Bay, San Fran, even Texas didn't add big name free agents before they were ready, they let the young talent grow into a contender.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

What is future? I don't think Fielder is a DH for another 6-7 years. He's only 27. Unless you think 30 year olds suddenly can't play 1B.

His age isn't the problem...it's his body type. How long are his knees going to last carrying around 280-300 pounds? Once the legs lose their strength...his numbers will start dropping fast. Thats why the term for a guy like him is sooo risky. Look at a guy like Vladimir Guerrero, who's always been a great athlete. He's at an advanced age, and doesn't have the leg strength he had even 4 years ago. As a result he's now barely an above average offensive player if that.

I don't see his body type changing anytime soon. Even if first base is easier on the body than playing in the outfield...there aren't many people who's body can handle carrying that much weight for that long while putting the stresses on your body that even baseball requires.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Gozer

Interesting thought experiment. Let's look at the reigning champions in the four major sports (off the top of my head, not much research done on this post):

Packers: Prototypical farm team, but they did spend big on Woodson who spent a few seasons with the prospects before being a championship-calibre team.

Bruins: Chara seems like another great example of what you're looking for.

Cardinals: Had a few big-ticket acquisitions after their last championship, I'd think that when they brought in Holliday and Berkman they were average and over-spending. They did have the best player in the game though.

Mavericks: Kidd and Marion, but this is more of a team trying to get better before their window closed than prospects boosting them with solidified free agent signings.

Doesn't seem that rare to me though.

It's hard to compare it to other pro sports though.

In basketball and hockey with more than half the league making the playoffs the benefit of each marginal win "purchased" by signing a guy like Fielder is much greater to most teams. In the MLB, signing Fielder's 5 WAR is much more valuable to a 90+ win team than an 80- win team (which is like a 30/70 split). In the NBA and NHL the split is more like 75/25 as there's lot of teams that adding one superstar piece could put them in the playoffs. The Bruins can buy a Chara, become a bubble playoff team pretty easily and almost always get some benefit out of it on a yearly basis.

The NFL is a bad comparison as free agency just isn't a big deal. Careers are too short so most teams are built almost entirely from the draft.