April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Week one was a perfect storm for the Wildrose. I was actually expecting a poll like ThinkHQ to show a bigger lead. I expected closer to 50% for this week.

Agree with the premise but 50% is pretty much unreachable for the WR IMO. The PC"s barely broke 50% at their peak, 40's are pretty good.

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

I think the true litmus test will be after week two is done. The spotlight is now shifting to the Wildrose as the front runner (which I think is about two weeks before where they would like this to happen).

Exactly, it will all come down to timing. There will surely be some pull back now that some people are calling for a WR majority. The question is do they have time to surge back up again. The debates will be absolutely crucial in this campaign.

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

My take on the first two days of this week is that Danielle Dollars, the media criticism and the whole Conscience Rights blog post haven't been going well for the WRP. Of course, that's only the discussion online, but the first two days aren't off to a great start.

I personally hate the Danidollars but in talking to people, listening to call in shows and reading comment boards it seems to be fairly popular. As for conscience rights, I haven't heard anyone mention it anywhere except on this forum.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well I'll go ahead and suggest the other option: a PC/NDP/Lib coalition. That might be a case of strange bedfellows, but it might be more workable than the alternative.

Personally I think this is the death knell of the PC party if they choose to coalesce with the leftist parties. While the PCs have been wading into Liberal waters since Stelmach came to power and proved he didn't know the first thing about running a province, there's a substantial portion of the PC membership that are right of centre and holding out for the "good old days." That coalition would prove they are only about holding onto power, not about adhering to any particular set of values, and those people would probably toss up their arms and leave, likely to the waiting arms of the Wildrose Party who would enjoy the further increase of credibility that disenchanted PC members bring to their hard right perception.

Of course its very interesting to note, in any minority situation, its likely going to be a small cadre of PC MLAs that become the "Queen Makers" depending on if they jump ship to the Wildrose, or if they hold on.

[IntenseFan]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I personally hate the Danidollars but in talking to people, listening to call in shows and reading comment boards it seems to be fairly popular. As for conscience rights, I haven't heard anyone mention it anywhere except on this forum.

Just like the Federal child care benefit, Danidollars appears to play well to the masses. Most people on this board (myself included) appear to be of the opinion it is a bit silly and that debt reduction or just more savings in the Heritage fund would be better.

That said, it is likely to build more supporters than lose them.

In any event, although I continue to think the Federal child care benefit is silly, my family continues to collect the $1200 annually and has for the last 3 years. People might grumble about the silliness of Danidollars, but they won't grumble about cashing the cheques (assuming they ever come). It's probably not a niche issue, but rather a consolidating one.

[Jacks]

The other thing is that you have to be a very skilled politician to get away with criticizing the policy. It's hard to say that people shouldn't get (or don't deserve) a share of the resource money without having a "beer and popcorn" moment. Maybe a veteran like Rae, Harper or Layton could find the right words in the heat of a debate but these folks are lightweights in comparison. Agreed it's a stupid policy but it may be very successful.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by IntenseFan

The Libs and Dippers would never support the WRA of course, so no help there.

I disagree, the WRP has worked together with both the Libs & ND's. In fact we have had individual MLAs side with them on some issues.

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

The spotlight is now shifting to the Wildrose as the front runner (which I think is about two weeks before where they would like this to happen). From here on out the Wildrose will be under the microscope, by the media and the voters. The overall conversation is no longer switching from are "we going to see the PCs era end" rather to "are the WildRose ready to form government" or "do you want the WildRose to form government".

There's are a lot of questions to be asked and three weeks is still a long time in regards to an election. My take on the first two days of this week is that Danielle Dollars, the media criticism and the whole Conscience Rights blog post haven't been going well for the WRP. Of course, that's only the discussion online, but the first two days aren't off to as rosy as a start as last week.

Yuppers. Knives getting bigger, getting sharper, more of them, bloodier, on and on.

Personally I hate polls, doesn't matter if they are good or bad; they just annoy me for some reason. Either way, I think we will see more ebb and flow before it's all said and done.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by IntenseFan

Just like the Federal child care benefit, Danidollars appears to play well to the masses. Most people on this board (myself included) appear to be of the opinion it is a bit silly and that debt reduction or just more savings in the Heritage fund would be better.

It's only kicks in for surpluses and the breakdown for surpluses is as follows:

50% to Heritage Trust Fund
20% to Energy Dividend
20% to Contingency Fund
10% to Municipalities

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by First Lady

I disagree, the WRP has worked together with both the Libs & ND's. In fact we have had individual MLAs side with them on some issues.

While this is good of course, there's a big difference between working together in opposition to stifle a majority government doing something universally disliked, and looking to them for support in a minority situation.

The leftist parties would only agree if a long list of demands were met, a list that would make centre-right governance impossible.

Better off kissing and making up with the PCs.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Agree with the premise but 50% is pretty much unreachable for the WR IMO. The PC"s barely broke 50% at their peak, 40's are pretty good.

The low 40s are pretty good, but it's always been the ceiling of popularity for the WRP. (I'm basing this of the trends since 2008 shown in this graph http://johnbsantos.com/2012/03/27/po...-2008-to-2012/). The PCs had over 50% when Redford was first elected and 60% right after the last election. I know that was a different time, but it is an indicator of the ceiling for the parties.

Originally Posted by Jacks

Exactly, it will all come down to timing. There will surely be some pull back now that some people are calling for a WR majority. The question is do they have time to surge back up again. The debates will be absolutely crucial in this campaign.

I agree that the debates will be absolutely critical for this election. One slip up from Smith or Redford during those and it would be disastrous. I do think that Smith would rather have Redford barely leading and on the defensive than being the front runner walking in. But again that ties into whole concept of timing. Smith would rather have Redford being attacked by Mason and Sherman, and only having to deal with attacks from Redford. But with her in the lead, you're going to see a full on attack from Redford and then split attacks from Mason & Sherman. My gut feeling is that like most debates, there won't be any huge momentum swing. Could be wrong though.

Originally Posted by Jacks

I personally hate the Danidollars but in talking to people, listening to call in shows and reading comment boards it seems to be fairly popular. As for conscience rights, I haven't heard anyone mention it anywhere except on this forum.

I think Danidollars will be a 50/50 split between the population. The difference between Ralph bucks and Danidollars is that Ralph bucks came after an election and was a totally new concept. Plus there was really no outlet for people to complain, people just cashed their checks and moved on. While Danidollars is a campaign promise, there are a few people in this thread that have already said it's put them off the WRP and I would suspect that concept will continue. It's not going to tank the campaign, but it'll be something that moderits and people in the center will continue to question. Especially when the main topics continue to be Education and Health Care.

The Conscience Rights issue is something that I think will continue to dog the WRP. I agree it hasn't been the hottest topic covered by the media, but it was the center of conversation online for most of the day. I've already seen people reposting the link that Slava posted on Facebook and I expect in a couple of days to see that topic start hitting the mainstream.

[Slava]

I wish that there were more debates. I just get bored and tired of photo ops and policy announcements by the leaders. There should be one a week, and all televised. Same goes for federal campaigns.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

There should be one a week, and all televised. Same goes for federal campaigns.

Debates on Wednesday's
Trash talk Fridays
Cage matches on Saturday. Party #1 vs #2 and #3 vs #4, whoever is leading the Alberta Party can hold the round cards and ring the bell ... followed by a province wide kegger.
Whoever can sober up their supporters on Monday wins.

[First Lady]

2011 Finances are published for the number nerds.

http://efpublic.elections.ab.ca/efPa...MID=FP_6&PID=6

[kn]

I see Liberal and PC lawn-signs in Calgary Varsity but have yet to see one from the WRP. The Liberal candidate, Bruce Payne, is the only one I've had any contact with via a pamphlet drop. Both he and the PC candidate, Donna Kennedy-Glans, seem to be active on Facebook and Twitter. Solinger meanwhile has a grand total of 17 likes on his facebook account, not that that is an indication of success or failure in and of itself. Payne is advertising an all-candidates forum on April 18th which I'm looking forward to.

From what little I've read about Payne and Kennedy-Glans, they both seem like solid candidates. Kennedy-Glans in particular has a very impressive professional resume. If the PCs hadn't pissed me off so much, I could easily vote for her.

If this riding votes by party like we do federally, maybe Solinger can ride a WRP wave if it continues. As of now, I'd say Calgary Varsity will go Liberal or PC.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Slava

I wish that there were more debates. I just get bored and tired of photo ops and policy announcements by the leaders. There should be one a week, and all televised. Same goes for federal campaigns.

I agree. There were 32 Mayoralty debates in the last civic election (or something very close to that number). Granted, the civic election is really long, but more debates would be welcome at the provincial level. It really helped the best mayoralty candidate win.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by kn

If this riding votes by party like we do federally, maybe Solinger can ride a WRP wave if it continues. As of now, I'd say Calgary Varsity will go Liberal or PC.

I agree it's look like Varsity is not a right wing voting district. In my district (North West) I would be shocked if the WRA doesn't win.

[Rathji]

So is the Wild Rose Candidate in every riding blatantly ignoring the sign bylaws or it is just in Calgary-Hays? I am shocked beyond belief that Ric isn't doing the same thing, as him and Barb were one of the worst offenders during the Civic election.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by First Lady

Many of our candidates have been out door knocking for months.

To use my home area as example.

From Kyle Fawcett, March 30:



From Jeremy Nixon, April 1:

That's spot on to what I'm observing in my riding (Calgary Foothills). I'm getting the impression that the Tories are in real trouble here. Wildrose had signs up on day 1 of the writ being dropped and I noticed within a day on my daily running route that Wildrose signs had made it to individual homeowners lawns. Now a week later Len Webber has finally got his signs out, but they are only on public property. I haven't seen one PC sign on a homeowners lawn, but yet a whole crapload of Wildrose signs in front lawns. The best case scenario for the PCs would be that there's enough soft support to pull it off. It appears though that no one in my hood is proud enough to flash a PC sign.

It just seems to me that the Wildrose were prepared to campaign hard, and the PCs were arrogant and complacent and assumed that in formerly safe Calgary ridings that they could just cruise to victory without much effort.

[killer_carlson]

Wr Are running a well organized campaign, whereas the pcs are running an undisciplined campaign.

Pcs spending more time reacting to errors than talking policy, which is ironic because that was supposed to be a problem for the wr upstarts.

In my riding the wr candidate has had many of his signs stolen, including some that ended up at the door of the building where he lives. Imnot happy about that last part especially.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

It just seems to me that the Wildrose were prepared to campaign hard, and the PCs were arrogant and complacent and assumed that in formerly safe Calgary ridings that they could just cruise to victory without much effort.

Or maybe they were busy governing. [/deadpan]

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

That's spot on to what I'm observing in my riding (Calgary Foothills). I'm getting the impression that the Tories are in real trouble here. Wildrose had signs up on day 1 of the writ being dropped and I noticed within a day on my daily running route that Wildrose signs had made it to individual homeowners lawns. Now a week later Len Webber has finally got his signs out, but they are only on public property. I haven't seen one PC sign on a homeowners lawn, but yet a whole crapload of Wildrose signs in front lawns. The best case scenario for the PCs would be that there's enough soft support to pull it off. It appears though that no one in my hood is proud enough to flash a PC sign.

It just seems to me that the Wildrose were prepared to campaign hard, and the PCs were arrogant and complacent and assumed that in formerly safe Calgary ridings that they could just cruise to victory without much effort.

No question about it IMO. Just looking at all the polls and recent trends, WR is a lock to demolish the PC's in Calgary.

If the WR can make any kind of upward trend in Edmonton...then they will have an easy majority if everything else stays status quo.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

That's spot on to what I'm observing in my riding (Calgary Foothills). I'm getting the impression that the Tories are in real trouble here. Wildrose had signs up on day 1 of the writ being dropped and I noticed within a day on my daily running route that Wildrose signs had made it to individual homeowners lawns. Now a week later Len Webber has finally got his signs out, but they are only on public property. I haven't seen one PC sign on a homeowners lawn, but yet a whole crapload of Wildrose signs in front lawns. The best case scenario for the PCs would be that there's enough soft support to pull it off. It appears though that no one in my hood is proud enough to flash a PC sign.

It just seems to me that the Wildrose were prepared to campaign hard, and the PCs were arrogant and complacent and assumed that in formerly safe Calgary ridings that they could just cruise to victory without much effort.

The PCs are finally having to run a campaign. Last time in my riding there probably wasn't a single sign for the first week and a half from anyone. This time there are signs and I've seen the PC out door knocking as well. Its good for democracy.

Originally Posted by SebC

Or maybe they were busy governing. [/deadpan]

There is a little bit of truth to that. Danielle Smith spent the past two years traveling the province and meeting with people. Not that she was starting her campaign at that point, but she wasn't sitting around waiting for the writ to drop! Thats something I can respect and commend. I always hated how opposition parties waited for the writ to drop to start doing anything.