2011/12 Toronto Blue Jays Off-Season

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Parallex

No they haven't. Not relative to how they stacked up this time last year with the incoming crop...

Franky Frank: 2010 - 1.0 fWAR
Octavio Dotel: 2010 - 0.9 fWAR
Rzep: 2011* - 1.0 fWAR
Jon Rauch: 2010 - 1.1 fWAR

Sergio Santos: 2011 - 1.6 fWAR
Francisco Cordero: 2011 - 0.1 fWAR
Darren Oliver: 2011 - 1.3 fWAR
Jesse Litsch: 2011 - 0.7 fWAR

Everyone else is a returnee from the starting line-up so they cancel each other other out. by the numbers the bullpen is actually 0.3 fWAR worse this year then this time last year.

* I used Rzep's 2011 because it was the first year he was used as primarily a relief pitcher... seemed the fairest way to include him.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-the-blue-jay/

Why use the stats from 2010 on RPs like Fransicso or Rauch or Dotel?

Clearly Rauch struggled last season with the Jays, Fransicso also struggled.

Only RP I believe the Jays are missing is Rzep. Dotel was okay....

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flambers

Why use the stats from 2010 on RPs like Fransicso or Rauch or Dotel?

Because I'm comparing incoming bullpen arms. Rauch as he was coming in to the pen, Dotel as he was coming in to the pen, and Fransicso as he was coming in to the pen. I don't think it's fair to just assume that this years bullpen is an improvement on last years and I'm using the numbers that our prior crop had coming in to demonstate that.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flambers

Why use the stats from 2010 on RPs like Fransicso or Rauch or Dotel?

He doing a 'same-time' comparision. Obviously going into the 2011 he'll use 2010 numbers and going into this season he'll use 2011 numbers.

When you compare the Jays pre-aquisition of relivers to Jays post-aquisition of relievers, that's just spin.

We have to go back in time and compare unknowns to unknowns. Compare where the Jays are right now on Jan 25, 2012 compared to Jan 25, 2011 and Jan 25, 2010 and so on.

The 2011 offseason thread is a good read.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=100289

[flambers]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

He doing a 'same-time' comparision. Obviously going into the 2011 he'll use 2010 numbers and going into this season he'll use 2011 numbers.

When you compare the Jays pre-aquisition of relivers to Jays post-aquisition of relievers, that's just spin.

We have to go back in time and compare unknowns to unknowns. Compare where the Jays are right now on Jan 25, 2012 compared to Jan 25, 2011 and Jan 25, 2010 and so on.

The 2011 offseason thread is a good read.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=100289

I believe he never used last season's stats but the previous season's stats with Rauch. For example some of them show 2010 and some show 2011.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flambers

I believe he never used last season's stats but the previous season's stats with Rauch. For example some of them show 2010 and some show 2011.

Yes... because I'm comparing the prior year numbers for incoming BP arms. The incoming arms last year use 2010 numbers because 2010 was the prior year and the incoming arms this year use 2011 because 2011 will be the prior year.

Again except for Rzep... I had to use this past year for him because he wasn't primarily in the pen any other year and I had no other LHP to use instead (because I wanted a "most suitable" comparison for Oliver). In an alternate universe where Downs stuck around another year I'd use him but dems' da breaks. It's not ideal but the best I could think of under the circumstances.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by Parallex

No they haven't. Not relative to how they stack up this time last year with the incoming crop...

Franky Frank: 2010 - 1.0 fWAR
Octavio Dotel: 2010 - 0.9 fWAR
Rzep: 2011* - 1.0 fWAR
Jon Rauch: 2010 - 1.1 fWAR

Sergio Santos: 2011 - 1.6 fWAR
Francisco Cordero: 2011 - 0.1 fWAR
Darren Oliver: 2011 - 1.3 fWAR
Jesse Litsch: 2011 - 0.7 fWAR

Everyone else is a returnee from the starting line-up so they cancel each other other out. by the numbers the bullpen is actually 0.3 fWAR worse this year then this time last year.

* I used Rzep's 2011 because it was the first year he was used as primarily a relief pitcher... seemed the fairest way to include him.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-the-blue-jay/

That is misleading. There is no way Cordero or Oliver #####s the bed as bad as Rauch did last year. What was Rzep's fWar with the Jays vs. the Cards? Dotel's as well. Dotel couldn't get a righty out to save his life, he wasn't used properly here anyway.

The Jays 'pen is better than last year, I am all for using sabermetrics, but you have to use common sense as well.

[zukes]

To girlysports, I stopped reading you when you said Hill would be a better option than Kelly Johnson...um what!?!?!

[zukes]

Also at LF, one of Snider or Thames is bound to run with the job. Thames has been working out like a beast apparently, changing his routine from mostly yoga and adding weights for the first time in a while. There is a picture of him on the winter tour on DJF and damn, dude has guns!

Ben Francisco is no better aginast LHP than RHP so don't count on any type of platoon, he is depth at best. The best player will likely get the bulk of the AB's.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yes... because I'm comparing the prior year numbers for incoming BP arms. The incoming arms last year use 2010 numbers because 2010 was the prior year and the incoming arms this year use 2011 because 2011 will be the prior year.

Again except for Rzep... I had to use this past year for him because he wasn't primarily in the pen any other year and I had no other LHP to use instead (because I wanted a "most suitable" comparison for Oliver). In an alternate universe where Downs stuck around another year I'd use him but dems' da breaks. It's not ideal but the best I could think of under the circumstances.

Maybe buts its totally miss-leading.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by zukes

That is misleading. There is no way Cordero or Oliver #####s the bed as bad as Rauch did last year.

Can you tell me what the upcoming Lotto Max numbers will be? Since you're apparently psychic and all.

All snark aside no one last year would've said that Rauch would #### the bed as bad as he actually did either. Thus demostrating that predictions of bullpen success are a dicey proposition. And for the record I think Cordero has a very decent chance of doing as poorly (or worse) then Rauch did. He was fairly mediocre in the NLC and he's moving to the the American League (Where the DH Position exists) and more specifically the American League East home of hitter ballparks and the two highest payroll offenses in all of baseball.

Originally Posted by zukes

The Jays 'pen is better than last year.

No, it might be better then last year... might be the same too. That's the whole point of what I've been saying. Most folk seem to #### on the bullpen last year but never acknowledge that it was supposed to be at least as good as this years is supposed to be. We just can't assume that it's been improved.

Originally Posted by flambers

Maybe buts its totally miss-leading.

I don't think so. I think it was a fair demonstation of how predictions of bullpen performance improvement can be horribly inaccurate.

Originally Posted by zukes

Ben Francisco is no better aginast LHP than RHP so don't count on any type of platoon, he is depth at best. The best player will likely get the bulk of the AB's.

Davis has a pretty good career platoon split against lefties though. Ultimately I (unfortunately) don't think they're going to platoon anyone this year. I think they'll want to have Snider or Thames try to figure it out and we don't have a RH infield bat that can cover off a Lind/EE Platoon.

[zukes]

As for the line-up, here is what you have:

C: Arencibia - at an age, and expectations are, that he will better this year

1B: Lind - in his prime, struggled with a bad back, should be better, can't really be worse without getting replaced.

2B: Johnson - in his prime, motivated by potential free agency (though should have been last year as well), seems likely to rebound at least to 2007 - 2008 stats, if not 2010. Still better than Hill has been in years.

SS: Health is the only concern, save for the year where he was traded, you know exactly what you will get, and numbers may improve if lineup around him improves

3B: Lawrie: just turned 22, a full season of him will be better than what we had in 2010, even with possible rookie struggles. You can pencil him in for a minimum .260/.350/.550 including 20HR and 15SB, plus miles better D than E5 and that is the absolute minimum.

LF: Right now it is between Thames and Snider. Snider is in a position where he has to win this job, or he gets traded or plays out his last option year in the minors IMO as Davis will be the 4th OF if Thames wins the job. You don't have Snider as a 5th or even 4th OF, he either starts or is off the Jays in one way opr another. If Snider makes it, you keep Thames around as a part time DH, 4th/5th OF type. Either way, it's not like this postion gets worse.

CF: Rasmus: should improve, but won't be worse than the collection of scrubs that shared CF last year did. If he is 2010 Rasmus, great, but I would not be surprised by a career year.

RF: Bautista 32 years old, should still be in his prime, and keep in mind his career and prime started late. The only place where a decline in production is even a decent possibility. His last two years have been amazing, with last year actually better by most metrics. The only reason I say a decline is a possibility is the standard is so freakin' high.

DH: EE 29 years old, still in his prime. He started to look better at the plate when that was all he had to worry about. Again, much more likely to improve than decline, but even at his last two years numbers is an average player based on WAR (provided he plays a full season)

[flames_1987]

Bullpens are always tough to project and that comes with saying hopefully Farrell (as he's talked about this offseason) gets a better understanding on how to manage his arms. I've loved every move for the pen this year besides Corderro, who's diminishing fastball could really hurt Vs Al East opponents.

With how much some teams overvalue the bullpen and the price relief arms go for, I think it's a perfect situation especially in the new CBA that this bullpen could no doubt be the pen for a contending team but also allow the Jays to load up on even more young talent with how many teams are looking for relief pitchers around the trade deadline.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Can you tell me what the upcoming Lotto Max numbers will be? Since you're apparently psychic and all.

All snark aside no one last year would've said that Rauch would #### the bed as bad as he actually did either. Thus demostrating that predictions of bullpen success are a dicey proposition. And for the record I think Cordero has a very decent chance of doing as poorly (or worse) then Rauch did. He was fairly mediocre in the NLC and he's moving to the the American League (Where the DH Position exists) and more specifically the American League East home of hitter ballparks and the two highest payroll offenses in all of baseball.



No, it might be better then last year... might be the same too. That's the whole point of what I've been saying. Most folk seem to #### on the bullpen last year but never acknowledge that it was supposed to be at least as good as this years is supposed to be. We just can't assume that it's been improved.

Fair points, but I would take the odds that the Jays 'pen doesn't implode the same way two years in a row.

As for Cordero, you are listening too much to the media. His WHIP was the 3rd lowest of his career. His ERA was the 5th lowest. Yes his K/9 were down (lowest of his career), but so too were his BB/9 (2nd lowest of his career) and H/9 (the lowest of his career). I see a guy who saw his velocity dip and found a way to pitch instead of throw. There was no spike in his HR other than normal fluctuation (he has been 0.6 - 0.9/9 HR all but 1 of the last 8 years).

Yes the AL East is tougher, but I don't care what sabermetrics say, so too is closing games, I have played some decent level ball and know there is more pressure, and closing is not something he is not being asked to do.

Oliver is a LOOGY through and through and has better control than Rzcep showed (with the Jays anyway)

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yes... because I'm comparing the prior year numbers for incoming BP arms. The incoming arms last year use 2010 numbers because 2010 was the prior year and the incoming arms this year use 2011 because 2011 will be the prior year.

Again except for Rzep... I had to use this past year for him because he wasn't primarily in the pen any other year and I had no other LHP to use instead (because I wanted a "most suitable" comparison for Oliver). In an alternate universe where Downs stuck around another year I'd use him but dems' da breaks. It's not ideal but the best I could think of under the circumstances.

But we have the data for how they did in 2011 so why ignore it?

What does this kind of analysis tell us? Even if the Jays are somehow worse off in this it doesn't provide any information. We know that Dotel, Rauch, and to a lesser extent Francisco were putrid for the Blue Jays last season. We brought in guys that pitched much, much better than they did. So even if we are in a worse spot than last year, we're still a lot more likely to have a better bullpen in 2012.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Can you tell me what the upcoming Lotto Max numbers will be? Since you're apparently psychic and all.

Look at my custom title, I could, but I would rather save that for me

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by zukes

Oliver is a LOOGY through and through and has better control than Rzcep showed (with the Jays anyway)

Oh I think Oliver is better then that. He doesn't have much of a L/R split... he's been pretty good pitching to both sides of the plate. I think they will use him as a LOOGY on occasion but I more think that he's more going to be used as a standard one full inning guy. I do hope that they use Cordero as a ROOGY though.

Originally Posted by zukes

Look at my custom title, I could, but I would rather save that for me

Ha! Touche.

[Glorious #1]

QUOTE=GirlySports;3507993]They may be going still going in the right direction but when is that? They are nowhere MUCH stronger right now then this time last season.

They don't have a LF. They don't have a 2B. 3B is much better but we only saw Lawrie for half a season.

15 game winner Cecil is nowhere. Snider can't prove he can hit yet, he may never be able to hit. The CF we traded for might be a lazy pantload. Morrow and Drabek took a step back, Drabek might not be MLB caliber at all. Is the bullpen really improved? I nearly spilled coffee, best bullpen in the majors? Cordero and Oliver!? Are Cordero, Oliver and Santos really that much better than Francisco, Dotel and Rzepcinsky? Dotel and Rzepcinsky were awesome in the playoffs.

Who's the DH? Are we just going to keep treating it like a fill-in position and rotate useless players like Encarnacion there? Vizquel at SS and Escobar to DH from time to time, how bout that?

Go position by position and tell me how this team is better? The team has one quality starter, one bat in RF and a bunch of question marks.

The direction might still be ok but they're a last place team in 2012. Yes I will get flamed but they're finishing last this year in AL East.
I'm not saying break the bank but a couple of free agents to supplement the youth would have been nice. Getting free agents doesn't mean win now, someone like Fielder or Darvish (for example) are still in their 20s and the target could still be 2013 or 2014. Or even more middle-ranged free agents, especially pitchers like Bedard, Harang etc... A pitching staff with Romero and 4 kids can't be good for a long 162 game season.

Good in theory but there may not be a good FA at that time. There won't be as good an FA as Fielder in the next 5 years. Fielder would have destroyed the SkyDome while hitting behind Bautista.[/QUOTE]

Last in the AL East? What drugs are you on?

I don't believe our rotation is as bad as you suggest it will be, certainly better than Baltimores.

Right now it appears it will be made up of the following 5. Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez and McGowan.

Romero doesn't even need to be discussed, he is clearly our ace and a fantastic pitcher.

I take issue with this statement "Morrow and Drabek took a step back...." Morrow in fact did not take a step back if anything he took a step forward.
Yes his ERA increased (4.49 in 2010 to 4.72 in 2011) and his SO/9 decreased (10.9 in 2010 to 10.2* in 2011 *Second behind only Greinke this year). However, he saw improvement in many other areas. Without getting into more advanced pitching indications, here is Morrow 2010 vs Morrow 2011.

- An increased work load of 33 innings (146.1/2010 - 179.1/2011)
- His WHIP in fact improved (1.380/2010 - 1.288/2011)
- Naturally a reduced WHIP means his H/9 and BB/9 also decreased (8.4/2010 - 8.1/2011) and (4.1/2010 - 3.5/2011)
- His SO/BB also saw improvement (2.70/2010 - 2.94/2011)

Are these marginal improvements? For the most part, yes. But did he in fact take a step back? Not at all.

I won't adress Drabek as honestly I don't see him being apart of the rotation in 2012.

How about the 2010 15 game winner known as Brett Cecil. Horrible Record aside (4-11 2011) He wasn't as out of form as you may think. Beside and inability to keep the ball in the park his numbers weren't that different.

His HR/9 jumped nearly a full run (.9/2010 - 1.6/2011). Can this be contributed to his decrease in velocity or maybe more so poor pitch calling from an inexperienced backstop. In my opinion, a combination of the two.

Other than that an identical WHIP and other very similar numbers suggest that Cecil 2011 wasn't that much worse than Cecil 2011. Argue it if you wish.

Henderson Alvarez is a much harder read as he only started 10 games. Though he didn't reach the velocity we were told he was capable of often he did post a sub 4 ERA and showed great control only walking 1.1 Batter per nine innings pitched. Also a SO/BB of 5 isn't something to shake your head at. I expect a lot of him in 2012.

To finnish off our potential rotation Dustin McGowan, having been out for 3 years he is a hard read. It looked like his velocity was back as he had batters whiffing (8.6 S0/9) but his control left a lot to be asked for (5.6 BB/9). Though lets see you rehab for 3 years off and on and still have the same control you did before getting hurt. I honestly don't know what to expect from him but if he remains healthy and shows he can still be the pitcher he was prior to his injury I don't see our 5th spot in the rotation as being that weak.

[GirlySports]

wow you guys are really optimistic. A 15 game winner that within 2 months of the following year got sent down to the minors is not a step back? Wasn't that much worse?

It's Romero and 4 question marks. If any of those question marks fails or gets injured it's going to be a very long season. Be prepared to see the bullpen throw 1000 innings.

[Glorious #1]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

wow you guys are really optimistic. A 15 game winner that within 2 months of the following year got sent down to the minors is not a step back? Wasn't that much worse?

It's Romero and 4 question marks. If any of those question marks fails or gets injured it's going to be a very long season. Be prepared to see the bullpen throw 1000 innings.

Opinion versus numbers here. You have done exactly nothing to intelligently argue my or anyone else's points.

[flames_1987]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

wow you guys are really optimistic. A 15 game winner that within 2 months of the following year got sent down to the minors is not a step back? Wasn't that much worse?

It's Romero and 4 question marks. If any of those question marks fails or gets injured it's going to be a very long season. Be prepared to see the bullpen throw 1000 innings.

Dear lord.

First off, W-L records are absolutely an irrelevant stat.

What was so optimistic about saying Cecil was nearly the same pitcher in 2011 then he was in 2010 when you take a full look at his statistics?

Morrow is a quality pitcher, there's no question mark.

All anyone has said about is he's a young player with very good stuff, that could have a very solid future and we are excited to see pitch in 2011.

This optimism you speak of, please show me any post where somebody has really overvalued any of the Jays starting 5...I would love to see that. Nobody on here is calling this rotation good enough to win a world series or a lock to make the playoffs.

Why in the world do you also paint the picture of the Jays having no pitching depth in the organization and that if somehow one of those pitchers isn't strong, there goes the entire season?