2025/26 Roster Discussion

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Question Bingo, I said if we are deploying Zary at centre like people want I would use Backlund as our 4th line C. So are you using Zary as your 4th line C? That would be dumb, you need him in a top 6 role to develop. Kadri? That is not happening. Frost? He is younger and still has upside. He is at worst as good if a two way C. Now if you don't cherry pick that discussion to point out where I put Backlund as a 4th line C my preference is Backlund as 3rd line C and Zary on the wing.

I think they have to make a Frost vs Zary call this season, or use them both at center.

If they both perform you make a Kadri decision.

And Backlund will eventually lose his mojo and become over his skis as the shutdown guy. It could happen at any time.

But it didn't happen last year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I don’t even think it’s infuriating, it is what it is, but it’s a big part of why he’s a bottom six player and not a 1st liner.

Backlund is good at shutting down the other team’s best players, he’s also not great offensively, not great at faceoffs, and a bit slow.

I like him very much for what he is and hopes he retires a Flame, but I don’t think 4th line is some big insult. Lots of great defensive/shutdown forwards make a whole career out of anchoring that spot.

Not sure I'd agree.

If you're a shut down guy you have to play the minutes against the opposition's best, and they tend to play 18 minutes of five on five a night.

You're just not a fourth line center with that much ice time.

You're not by time on ice. And you're likely not by the wingers you have with you.

[FlamesAddiction]

I expect we'll see a lot of line mixing.

I'll go with Huberdeau-Kadri-Coronato as the most frequent 1st line. Besides that, I expect Backlund and Coleman to stick together. I also expect they will find one winger to stick with Frost (Farabee or Zary are my main guesses). Lombo and Kirkland will be the staple on the 4th line.

Shanagovich, Pospisil, and Klapka are all going to be competing for the remaining middle 6 spots with time on the 4th line until the dust settles.

[Sylvanfan]

Didn't Zary/Frost/Huberdeau look really good for a couple of games until Zary got injured again? From what I remember they dominated metrics in a short sample size but just didn’t finish on the trip thru New York.

I would like to see that trio again and give them a bit of runway to see if the chemistry is there and if the finishing changes...Frost like Farabee was snake bitten.

Depending on how things shake out...the Flames could have 2 jobs at Center in the top 3 lines open up by the starters of the 2026 season. If one of them does this year try Zary there. But Id try him with at least one other skilled guy on the wing to start and see if it clicks.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Savvy27

For the final 15 games of last season the Bahl-Andersson pairing really started to gel.

As a pair they went:
Corsi For: 52.56%
xGF For: 52.33%
Average 5v5 TOI: 16:34

And they had incredibly bad luck at 5v5:
Bahl - Andersson on ice:
Shooting %: 3.23
Save %: 85.09
PDO: 0.883

Bahl - Andersson off ice:
Shooting %: 9.56
Save %: 92.35
PDO: 1.019

I think it is worthwhile to try them again assuming Andersson is still on the team. I'd run two groups and spot in Parekh until he gets comfortable or Andersson is moved:

Hanley - Weegar
Bahl - Andersson
Bean - Pachal

Weegar - Parekh
Bahl - Andersson
Hanley - Pachal

The forwards are a bit of a mess. I agree that Lomberg should be in the press box from a talent perspective, but with Andersson's trade status in the air I would understand if the coaches want him in there keeping the vibes light.

Understood. Also, Bahl-Andersson were deployed heavily with Backlund's line against other team's top lines and they often got the D-zone starts.

The point is that many people on the board want Andersson traded which means two things:
1) You want to boost Andersson's stats as much as possible, which would be easiest done by flipping his assignment with Weegar.

Last season, Weegar was primarily deployed with the Kadri line.
This season, deploy Weegar with Backlund and deploy Andersson with Kadri.

2) If the plan is to have Andersson traded then you need to think about your future defensive pairings. Weegar and Hanley worked out well as an offensive pair being deployed with Kadri's line but if Weegar is now going to be the shut down guy being deployed with Backlund then you probably want him with Bahl instead of Hanley.

Bahl-Weegar
Hanley-Andersson
Kuznetsov/Bean-Pachal/Parekh

As a 19 year old, planning to start Parekh on the second pair for an 82 game NHL season is a bad idea. The coaching staff should probably plan to play Parekh 50-60% of the games to start and ease him in on the third pair. If things are going well then by the time Andersson is traded then the coaches can ramp him up.

[CFO]

Parekh should start sheltered on 3rd pairing but given lots of pp time.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not sure I'd agree.

If you're a shut down guy you have to play the minutes against the opposition's best, and they tend to play 18 minutes of five on five a night.

You're just not a fourth line center with that much ice time.

You're not by time on ice. And you're likely not by the wingers you have with you.

Most shutdown centers (who aren’t great offensively) seem to be in that 13-14 minute range EV.

Backlund certainly didn’t get close to 18 minutes EV.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by CFO

Parekh should start sheltered on 3rd pairing but given lots of pp time.

I wouldn't bet my house on it, but I think if he makes the team he is paired with Weegar. He is the best mentor we have, and he has shown he is good enough to play with just about anyone.

I don't think you put a guy like Parekh on the third pair anymore then you put a top forward prospect on the fourth line. You can shelter him by minimizing the d zone starts against top lines, and managing his minutes based on play. But you want him playing with your top forwards and D, not your fourth liners.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Most shutdown centers (who aren’t great offensively) seem to be in that 13-14 minute range EV.

Backlund certainly didn’t get close to 18 minutes EV.

Well of course not ... shut down guys play 50% of their games on the road and don't lineup second for second with the guys they are trying to contain.

But they don't play 10-11 either.

[Strange Brew]

It just seems if you zoom out a little, the answer is rather obvious.

The Flames are a developing team, looking to build a Cup contender. You have a skilled forward who will be 24 this season and you need to find out if he can be an effective NHL center. You just can't let two players who will be 35 and 36 this season stand in the way of that.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Well of course not ... shut down guys play 50% of their games on the road and don't lineup second for second with the guys they are trying to contain.

But they don't play 10-11 either.

I think you could manage a sustainable 4th line deployment of around 13 minutes even strength without costing anybody else opportunity.

[Goriders]

Tick tock Zary/Conroy. Tick Tock.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I think you could manage a sustainable 4th line deployment of around 13 minutes even strength without costing anybody else opportunity.

All good man ...

I just don't see it.

There are 47-48 minutes of five on five ice time in an average hockey game.

Last year the Flames were basically ... 15+14+13 for 42 minutes which on average leaves 6 for the fourth line.

If you boost that to 13 (Backlund to the fourth line) and take 7 minutes away from the top three lines which now don't include Backlund you make Kadri less effective, and still choke out the 2nd and 3rd line for deployment.

14
13
13
13

That's about 5 more minutes than you can count on.

So 13 11 11 13 ... pretty much neuters everyone.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It just seems if you zoom out a little, the answer is rather obvious.

The Flames are a developing team, looking to build a Cup contender. You have a skilled forward who will be 24 this season and you need to find out if he can be an effective NHL center. You just can't let two players who will be 35 and 36 this season stand in the way of that.

Absolutely.

And if they decide to move one or two of them I'm on board. But if they stay they play and Backlund isn't a fourth line center yet.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by kehatch

I wouldn't bet my house on it, but I think if he makes the team he is paired with Weegar. He is the best mentor we have, and he has shown he is good enough to play with just about anyone.

I don't think you put a guy like Parekh on the third pair anymore then you put a top forward prospect on the fourth line. You can shelter him by minimizing the d zone starts against top lines, and managing his minutes based on play. But you want him playing with your top forwards and D, not your fourth liners.

The 3rd pair and the 4th line are not the same thing, especially in a D group as thin as the Flames.

Before Andersson is traded, he is going to be able to take on ~24 minutes per night and we could re-deploy him against the other team's top lines but if the goal is for him to boost his stats and get traded then we should probably focus on deploying him on the attack with Kadri's line. Once Andersson is traded, that is a lot of minutes that need to be redistributed.

With and without Andersson, Weegar is going to have to play the big minutes. 24 per night against the other team's top lines... And Parekh is not going to be with him.

But then how do you distribute the rest of the minutes 120 D minutes in a game?

With Andersson:
Weegar = 24
Bahl = 21

Andersson = 24
Hanley/Kuznetsov = 18

Pachal/Bean = 16
Parekh/Bean = 17

(Yes, I think Kuznetsov is more physically ready to play bigger minutes than Parekh at this time)

Without Andersson:
Weegar = 24
Bahl = 21

Hanley/Kuznetsov = 19
Pachal= 19

Bean/Kuznetsov = 18
Parekh= 19

So even if Parekh is on the "third pair" and "second PP unit" you can see how the minutes may be equal to the second pair.

[Sylvanfan]

One thing about Backlund, is that Conroy himself had the experience at the end of his career. If you look at Craig, he had a really good age 37 season, but fell back the next year. He wanted to go one more year, but had to make the team on a tryout basis, and than after 18 games had to pack it up. So hopefully he can draw on his own experiences with how to handle Backlund.

I'm not as sentimental with Backlund in that I think he has to be a lifetime Flame. If the team isn't in the playoff picture in December....I hope they start asking him to think about moving on, and that there's no guarantee that they will give him a deal the next season.

[Harry Lime]

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but isn't the easiest solution to give the young guys powerplay time? Have them play defense on the bottom 2 lines 5v5, and then be creative on pp1?

Sure, it hurts the stats of the older players, but that's not the point. I'd make pp1, huby-zary-coranato-weegar-parekh. Smattering of young guys on pp2, too.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

All good man ...

I just don't see it.

There are 47-48 minutes of five on five ice time in an average hockey game.

Last year the Flames were basically ... 15+14+13 for 42 minutes which on average leaves 6 for the fourth line.

If you boost that to 13 (Backlund to the fourth line) and take 7 minutes away from the top three lines which now don't include Backlund you make Kadri less effective, and still choke out the 2nd and 3rd line for deployment.

14
13
13
13

That's about 5 more minutes than you can count on.

So 13 11 11 13 ... pretty much neuters everyone.

The AI search I did yesterday suggests that it's 52 per game of ES. The Flames don't really have a true top line that's going to play 18 of that. So it's maybe more like 15:30-14:30-13:30-8:30 type of split for time. If you even out the third and 4th lines, both would be around 11. So with PK time and 11 at Even strength, that's likely coming in just under 13 on average.

[HighLifeMan]

It's absolutely possible to roll 4 effective lines between 11-14 minutes a game at five on five. We saw Washington do it last year to damn near league best results.

Fans get to preoccupied with numbering the lines, but Backlund and Coleman can still easily play 14 minutes a night with PK time and be put into pure defensive assignments which hopefully opens up easier matchups and better output for the rest of the lineup.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The AI search I did yesterday suggests that it's 52 per game of ES. The Flames don't really have a true top line that's going to play 18 of that. So it's maybe more like 15:30-14:30-13:30-8:30 type of split for time. If you even out the third and 4th lines, both would be around 11. So with PK time and 11 at Even strength, that's likely coming in just under 13 on average.

Naturalstattrick has a range of 47:45 to 51:30 in five on five ice time per team per game.

Team 16 at 49:00