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Old 06-22-2017, 01:48 PM   #61
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I'd probably do 16OA and Kylington for Hamonic and 2nd rounder.

Then sign Stone as well.

Gio-Hamilton
Hamonic-Brodie
Wotherspoon/Kulak-Stone

Bartkowski can go up and down from Stockton/Calgary

Flames need to give Wotherspoon/Kulak regular time and see what they are or it's time to cut them loose. They've had enough development time in the AHL.
Hamonic is a RHD
Brodie is a LHD
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:49 PM   #62
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I find analytics tend to underrate defensive defensemen in general.
No, analytics rates players with poor gap control, poor cycle stopping, inability to pinch and keep play alive in o zone, or poor breakout ability... poorly.

It just so happens that better defensemen tend to also have offensive skills, like Giordano was one of if not the best defensive defenseman in the league last year but also threw up some points.

Defensive defensemen who can maintain a suffocating gap and still break the puck out - Tanev, Hjalmarsson, Ekholm, Gudas, Manson, Lindholm, Slavvin, are not underrated by analytics.

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Almost none of them have good possession numbers and yet NHL GM's love what they do. There's a bit of a disconnect between the stats and the value of strong, physical, defensive defensemen. So much of what they bring isn't really quantified in the stats very well.
The disconnect isn't between the stats and the players' on ice value... The disconnect is between the elements being overvalued (glass-and-out mistake-free clears, shot blocking, getting bailed out by your excellent goalie, sealing guys against the wall once every ten shifts while missing your check the other five shifts and collapsing to the net in desperation, etc) and the elements that actually predictably drive positive goal differentials. The reason for this is aesthetics, certain guys pass the aesthetics test and get described as defensive defensemen because of it, even as they bleed shots/chances/goals relative to guys not passing the aesthetics test.
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:49 PM   #63
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Tough for flames to trade for Hamonic. Our asset base is pretty stretched.

1st rounder
Jankowski
Andersson
Kylington
Gillies
Parssons

Are really the only piece worth anything and would sting to see a package of them go.
I'd toss Fox into that mix as well. Beyond that though, you're bang on that it gets incredibly thin. I'm not sure Hamonic's overall value is worthy of parting ways with any of those prospects plus a first round pick (assuming that's what it would take).

It might be best to focus on someone else with a little less hype behind them to fill the role i.e. slightly overpay Stone who I can't see being all that worse when it comes right down to it.
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:50 PM   #64
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Shot across the bow to Stone in the negotiations with Calgary.

If he's not willing to take a home town discount then there are other options for the flames.
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:51 PM   #65
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Not even Brouwer, Bouma or Stajan?
........ how do we gain an asset there? Haha of course I'd do that!
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:56 PM   #66
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I am curious how much hockey do you watch? It would seem the way you post that you literally watch all the games in the NHL as well as all the Stockton Heat games. Not that I doubt it in any way but it appears you watch more hockey than is humanly possible unless your job is that of an analyst.
I watch Flames games, some random team games on game center usually during playoffs, like ten-fifteen of the heat games. I probably don't watch more hockey than most here. It only takes 2-3 games+stats to make an opinion.

Sorry if my two-sentence opinion seems to be coming across as some sort of scouting report, I am just a CP member who doesn't want Hamonic. I am sure there are people who want him who have seen more of him, but I doubt they have seen as much as the stats, which is all of him with no aesthetic bias. I trust what little I have seen and the numbers that back it up.
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:59 PM   #67
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I'm wondering if flames fans have completely lost faith in the farm system at this point. I believe that stone is as good as signed, and there is out top four. Other players are backup plans.

I would want 2 spots open for defense in our system. I think that wotherspoon and kulak can hold down the left side 5 and 7 spots, and let Rafikov, ollas mattson and Andersson battle it out on the right, for that last spot.

I also would like to see rittich as the backup.

Eventually we should trust our own guys a little.
Your lineup makes sense to me if we were guaranteed to be injury free all year. But how does your proposed defense look when we sustain a couple injuries to our top 4 defense? Scary! Very inexperienced.

We need some depth to survive injuries. There is still room for a guy from the farm if you get Stone/Hamonic. And they really get their chance when the inevitable injuries happen.

What happens to the goalies if Smith is injured? Suddenly we're going with an all rookie duo? Yikes.

I find fans tend to spitball the lineup and forget that we're almost never 100% healthy for the year.
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Old 06-22-2017, 01:59 PM   #68
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If I was Treliving, I would be banging on Philadephia's door until they give up Gudas.
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:00 PM   #69
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Or we just sign Stone and run a really, really solid top 4. Bottom pairing is bottom pairing, and Stone (assuming he signs) has no additional cost.

Stone is top 4. Giordano, Hamilton and Brodie are arguably top two on any team in the league. Do not trade valuable assets for a 12 minutes a night, get that high end goal scorer instead.

Edit: according to Norris trophy voting we hold 2 of the best defenders in the league, Brodie - is almost as good but had a #### year. No cup winner recent memory won thanks to amazing top 4 D. Not even LA, they had two high end D's, same with Boston.

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Old 06-22-2017, 02:03 PM   #70
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I'm surprised the Islanders and Jets haven't worked out a Trouba for Hamonic swap. Hamonic wants to be closer to home and it doesn't get closer than Winnipeg and Trouba wants to be in the US.
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:03 PM   #71
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Shot across the bow to Stone in the negotiations with Calgary.

If he's not willing to take a home town discount then there are other options for the flames.
They can sign Stone and trade for another top 4 guy. One doesn't preclude the other.

Realistically, if you're trying to build a contender, Stone is a solid 5/6 guy who has that ability to competently step in as a top 4 guy. Ideally you have someone like Hamonic in the top 4 and Stone is holding down the third pairing with a young guy, ready to also step up in the case of injuries or line juggling.
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:03 PM   #72
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I'm cool to have Stone re-signed, and then let Bartkowski and Kulak/Wotherspoon duel it out for the 5th and 6th spot. These guys need to know they can earn a spot, and they were probably banking on the chance that Engelland and Wideman are now fully gone. Who knows, Andersson or Kylington may step up as well, creating some pressure for the rookies to win a main roster spot this year.

Hamonic would be great but probably not worth the cost at this point, and especially at this time of year.
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:13 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Harry Lime View Post
I'm wondering if flames fans have completely lost faith in the farm system at this point. I believe that stone is as good as signed, and there is out top four. Other players are backup plans.

I would want 2 spots open for defense in our system. I think that wotherspoon and kulak can hold down the left side 5 and 7 spots, and let Rafikov, ollas mattson and Andersson battle it out on the right, for that last spot.

I also would like to see rittich as the backup.

Eventually we should trust our own guys a little.
I agree in creating opportunities for players in the system, but I think due diligence needs to be done on what these guys would cost. This is especially true if Stone cannot be retained - always need options.

Right now the Flames have 3 top 4 D (Gio, Brodie, Hamilton) and then guys who could be anything from a top 4 to AHL.
Sign Stone, who is a 4/5 D, have Bartkowski as a vet who can end up 8th and in AHL, 7th and in pressbox, or 6th in a pinch, then you are relying on 2 guys in the system to make the team. While they could make it, that is a bit of a risk for a team aiming to be top 3 in division at minimum.

If the D corps started the season as:

Giordano - Hamilton
Brodie - Stone
Bartkowski - Andersson
Kulak
(Kylington as a callup)

that is paper thin on experience. Let's say one of that top 4 goes down - then you are relying on a rookie or a career depth guy to be in the top 4. That could spell trouble for the playoff aspirations.

Now if instead, that D corps looked like:

Giordano - Hamilton
Brodie - Hamonic/other proven NHL D
Kulak - Stone
Bartkowski/Andersson

then you can handle an injury a lot easier. Bartkowski can be sent down if he is knocked down the depth chart by guys in the system, but none of them are guaranteed a top 6 spot, as that could go to all veterans - they have to earn it.

The big factor here is acquisition cost. With Brodie and Hamilton you have half of your top 4 for a long time locked up. Giordano will eventually decline, at which time one of your system has to graduate into that role. So if another true top 4 D is acquired, and they are young and under contract long term, dealing a D prospect is palatable, as eventually the team will run out of room for all of these guys.

Now if the 16th overall is thrown in, that would create a gap in the system in this draft year. If a move down is a part of the trade (recouping an early 2nd round pick) that would be a little easier to handle, but the draft does drop off this year from all I have heard. I would also hesitate to move a more established young forward, and if Hamonic is the target, the Islanders have RFAs to sign and will not want to take on a high salaried player unless they dump more money (like Halak).

Where doing diligence on Hamonic now makes sense is if Vegas dilutes the market with all of their deals to move defencemen. If there are less teams willing to pay a high price, because they have moved on to cheaper options, does that create leverage?

TL;DR - need to balance creating chances for prospects with insurance provided by NHL proven D. With a lot of prospects, that is trade capital. Vegas has changed the market, so due diligence is smart
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:21 PM   #74
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I watch Flames games, some random team games on game center usually during playoffs, like ten-fifteen of the heat games. I probably don't watch more hockey than most here. Not sure why having an opinion on players means I watch more hockey than other people who have an opinion on players It only takes 2-3 games+stats to make an opinion.
Thanks. It is the way you type about players and teams. You give the impression that you watch all the games and players. I didn't mean any offense by the comment.

Your analysis of Hamonic gives the impression you watch all the games. You mention he gets walked every game.

I say this because I have a friend that cheers for a different team than the Flames. He watched a few games this year and concluded Dougie Hamilton is a bum and the Flames regret the trade (not knowing Dougie was having a 50pt season). Watching snippets of games gives people an idea but not a clear picture of how a player actually plays.

You Hamonic-Bartkowski comparison carrier less weight with me now knowing younwatch just bits and pieces.

I don't mean for this to come across in any way insulting to you as that was not the intention. You are a poster that has been quick to go to the "do you even watch them play" card so I was curious to how often you watched the various teams and leagues
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:23 PM   #75
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I watch Flames games, some random team games on game center usually during playoffs, like ten-fifteen of the heat games. I probably don't watch more hockey than most here. It only takes 2-3 games+stats to make an opinion.

Sorry if my two-sentence opinion seems to be coming across as some sort of scouting report, I am just a CP member who doesn't want Hamonic. I am sure there are people who want him who have seen more of him, but I doubt they have seen as much as the stats, which is all of him with no aesthetic bias. I trust what little I have seen and the numbers that back it up.
This is why you take so much heat. Attempting to evaluate a player solely (or primarily) on stats is very foolish - the stats aren't that accurate. They are not a complete picture, but are merely an attempt to add supplemental information, within context.

Some people ignore the context and take the statistical information as full evidence, in and of itself. And that is a flat-out wrong way to use them.
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:26 PM   #76
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Or we just sign Stone and run a really, really solid top 4. Bottom pairing is bottom pairing, and Stone (assuming he signs) has no additional cost.

Stone is top 4. Giordano, Hamilton and Brodie are arguably top two on any team in the league. Do not trade valuable assets for a 12 minutes a night, get that high end goal scorer instead.
Stone isn't top 4 IMO. he can play the role for a while, but over a season, no.
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:28 PM   #77
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You are a poster that has been quick to go to the "do you even watch them play" card so I was curious to how often you watched the various teams and leagues
I don't think I have.. though. I barely ever have pulled that card for a non flames player, maybe a guy like Crosby or Doughty who I love to watch.
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:28 PM   #78
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Stone isn't top 4 IMO. he can play the role for a while, but over a season, no.
I don't know. If a player pairs well with the 3rd best d man like stone did with Brodie, then he is a top 4 d man. Stone really brought balance to Brodie's right side after his acquisition. To me that makes him top 4.
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:29 PM   #79
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Shot across the bow to Stone in the negotiations with Calgary.

If he's not willing to take a home town discount then there are other options for the flames.
He better take a home town discount or he is literally not worth it.

The legend of Stone is more a myth. He's mediocre and is not someone you want to tie term or dollars to.
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Old 06-22-2017, 02:30 PM   #80
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I don't know. If a player pairs well with the 3rd best d man like stone did with Brodie, then he is a top 4 d man. Stone really brought balance to Brodie's right side after his acquisition. To me that makes him top 4.
IMO the chemistry with Brodie wore off after a while. And to some extent he looked better than he actually was due to comparisons with Brodie's previous partner.

I like Stone a lot, but to me he's a fringe 4 at best, and more suited to a 5 that can move up if something happens.
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